The environmental and socioeconomic effects of tuberculosis patients in the southwest of China: a population-based study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to assess the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and find the risk factors of TB patients with a high burden of TB in socioeconomic level, the high level of TB incidence and the great changes of economic and social factors, explore the possible factors, construct scientific and robust prediction model, and analyse whether the task of stopping TB can be accomplished by the expected global deadline. STUDY DESIGN: This was an ecological study. METHODS: Descriptive analysis, spatial and space-time scan, correlation analysis, and regression analysis were carried out, based on cases of TB in Sichuan Province and ecological data from 2006 to 2017, to explore the characters of TB and ecological factors, using the transfer function-noise model to forecast the trend of TB until 2035. RESULTS: Factors affecting the incidence of TB, increasing per capita green area, reporting status of TB among Tibetans and Yi minorities, comprehensive treatment management, total cost of TB per capita for urban residents, proportion of males with high school education, 20 to 20 h of 24-h accumulated precipitation, reducing HIV at the same time as AIDS deaths, the increase in the proportion of males in junior high school education, and the increase in the number of registered TB cases can reduce the incidence of TB. CONCLUSIONS: There was concentration mainly on enhanced control of the environment and society measures, helpful in guiding government planning to control TB. Reinforcement is required to reduce the TB of population aged 15-24 and aged 25-64 in socioeconomic level by 2035.

[Influence of sociocultural factors on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men: a qualitative study].

Objective: To understand how social and cultural factors influence sexual perceptions, sexual practices, and HIV transmission among men who have sex with men at selected sites in China. Methods: Qualitative methodology was used and face to face, semi-structured, in-depth interviews conducted from April 2013 to October 2015 in Sichuan, Jiangxi, Henan, Heilongjiang provinces and Chongqing municipality of China. Results: A total of 184 men who have sex with men participated in the interviews. Forty-eight originated from Henan Province, and 12, 50, 47, and 27 from Jiangxi, Heilongjiang, Sichuan provinces and Chongqing municipality, respectively. A total of 122 participants(66.3%)were under 30 years of age, 111 were college graduates(61.3%), 140 were unmarried(76.5%), and 74 were HIV positive(40.2%). Among interviewees, 6%(11 MSM)were employed at nongovernmental organizations. The main findings revealed that: Owing to sociocultural influences and social norms, most homosexual men concealed their sexual orientation and married females so as to fulfill their family obligation; this may encourage HIV transmission from a high-risk population to the general population; the main features of male homosexual behaviors, as well as those of the associated community and subculture, included hedonism, less concern about health, drug abuse, encouraging of high risk behaviors among men who have sex with men, and negative attitudes regarding HIV prevention; subgroups among MSM were found to have differential HIV transmission risk behaviors, with young men more vulnerable to infection with HIV. Conclusion: Sociocultural factors, including external socioenvironmental circumstances and internal MSM community subcultures, have adverse impacts on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men. Because there were varied behavior modes and HIV transmission risks among MSM subgroups, further study focusing on MSM subgroups is imperative, to provide a basis for more targeted and effective prevention strategies.

Predicting the incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease in Sichuan province, China using the ARIMA model.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is an infectious disease caused by enteroviruses, which usually occurs in children aged <5 years. In China, the HFMD situation is worsening, with increasing number of cases nationwide. Therefore, monitoring and predicting HFMD incidence are urgently needed to make control measures more effective. In this study, we applied an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast HFMD incidence in Sichuan province, China. HFMD infection data from January 2010 to June 2014 were used to fit the ARIMA model. The coefficient of determination (R 2), normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and mean absolute percentage of error (MAPE) were used to evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the constructed models. The fitted ARIMA model was applied to forecast the incidence of HMFD from April to June 2014. The goodness-of-fit test generated the optimum general multiplicative seasonal ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model (R 2 = 0·692, MAPE = 15·982, BIC = 5·265), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model (P = 0·893). The forecast incidence values of the ARIMA (1,0,1) × (0,1,0)12 model from July to December 2014 were 4103-9987, which were proximate forecasts. The ARIMA model could be applied to forecast HMFD incidence trend and provide support for HMFD prevention and control. Further observations should be carried out continually into the time sequence, and the parameters of the models could be adjusted because HMFD incidence will not be absolutely stationary in the future.