Analysis of Multiple Health Risky Behaviours and Associated Disease Outcomes Using Scottish Linked Hospitalisation Data.

Background: Disease incidence and premature deaths tend to be influenced by multiple health risky behaviours, including smoking, excessive alcohol consumption and unhealthy diet. Risky behaviours tend not to be independent and may have a multiplicative effect on disease incidence and healthcare cost. Thus, understanding the interrelationship between health behaviours and their effect on health outcomes is crucial in designing behavioural intervention programmes. Objective: To examine the interrelationship between health risky behaviours and associated disease outcomes amongst Scottish adults. Methods: We use hospitalisation episode data from the Scottish Morbidity Records, (SMR), that have been administratively linked to Scottish Health Surveys (SHeS) respondents with target disease defined by relevant ICD9 and 10 codes. We apply a recursive multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the health risky behaviours and disease incidence to adequately control for unobserved heterogeneity. The model is estimated separately by gender. Results: Modelling health risk behaviours and disease incidence equations independently rather than jointly may be misleading. We find a clear socioeconomic gradient predicting health risky behaviours and the results differ by gender. Specifically, smoking appears to be a key driver of other health risky behaviours. Current smokers are more likely to be drinking above the recommended limit, physically inactive, and eating inadequate diet. Conclusions: Interventions targeting current smokers to quit could spillover to other behaviours by reducing excessive drinking, improve physical activity and adequate diet. Thus, improvements in one behaviour may increase the likelihood of adopting other healthier lifestyle behaviours.

Longitudinal study of the effects of price and promotion incentives on purchases of unhealthy foods: evidence for restricting food promotions.

Objectives: Taxes and restrictions on promotions have recently been proposed as policy instruments to reduce consumption of unhealthy foods. The objective of this study is to add to the limited evidence on the comparative effectiveness of price changes, price promotions and volume promotions in changing household purchasing of unhealthy foods, using biscuits, crisps and savoury snacks as examples. Design: Longitudinal regression analysis of consumer microdata. Setting: Secondary data on itemised household purchases of biscuits, crisps and savoury snacks from 2006 to 2012. Participants: Sample of 3024 households in Scotland. Main outcome measures: Changes in the number of calories (kcal) purchased in the product category by a household caused by changes in the price for the product category, any temporary in-store price promotions and any temporary in-store volume promotions. Changes are measured at the mean, median, 25th percentile and 75th percentile of the household purchasing distribution for the full sample. Subgroup analyses were conducted by household income band and for households with and without children. Results: Between product categories, the scale of purchasing response to incentives varies significantly. Within product categories, the mean calories (kcal) purchased by a household are more responsive to any volume promotion than to price or any price promotion for all product categories. As the volume of items purchased increases, households are less responsive to price, less responsive to any volume promotion and more responsive to any price promotion. Statistically significant differences are observed between household income groups in their response to price and promotion incentives within the biscuits category only. In cases where statistically significant differences are observed, households with children are more responsive to promotion and price incentives than households without children. Conclusions: For all product categories analysed (biscuits, crisps and savoury snacks), household purchasing is most responsive to any volume promotion. Therefore, assuming the response of consumers to incentives remains constant following legislation, the most effective policy instrument to reduce the calorie intake from these products may be a ban on volume promotions.

The effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol on food purchases: Evaluation of a natural experiment.

Background: On the 1st of May 2018 Scotland became the first country to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol sales. The objective of this study is to identify the effects of this policy instrument on food purchasing by evaluating a natural experiment. Methods: Longitudinal analysis compares regions with similar characteristics but differing exposure to MUP (Scotland and the north of England). Secondary data from the Kantar Worldpanel on itemised purchases between April 2017 and April 2019 provided a total sample of 8051 households. The outcomes analysed are weekly household expenditure (£s) and purchase volume (grams), both overall and disaggregated to 16 product categories. Results: Following the introduction of MUP, total household food expenditure in Scotland declined by 1.0%, 95%CI [-1.9%, -0.0%], and total food volume declined by 0.8%, 95%CI [-1.7%, 0.2%] compared to the north of England. There is variation in response between product categories, with less spending on fruit and vegetables and increased spending on crisps and snacks. Conclusion: Minimum unit pricing for alcohol has displaced some household food purchasing and the pattern of changes in food categories appears to be less desirable from a healthy diet perspective. However, changes caused by a minimum price at a nominal 50 pence per unit of alcohol are relatively small.

Evaluating possible intended and unintended consequences of the implementation of alcohol minimum unit pricing (MUP) in Scotland: a natural experiment protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Scotland is the first country to carry out a national implementation of minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol. MUP aims to reduce alcohol-related harms, which are high in Scotland compared with Western Europe, and to improve health equalities. MUP is a minimum retail price per unit of alcohol. That approach targets high-risk alcohol users. This work is key to a wider evaluation that will determine whether MUP continues. There are three study components. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Component 1 sampled an estimated 2800 interviewees at a baseline and each of two follow-ups from four Emergency Departments in Scotland and Northern England. Research nurses administered a standardised survey to assess alcohol consumption and the proportion of attendances that were alcohol-related.Component 2 covered six Sexual Health Clinics with similar timings and country allocation. A self-completion survey gathered information on potential unintended effects of MUP on alcohol source and drug use.Using a natural experiment design and repeated cross-sectional audit, difference between Scotland (intervention) and North England (control) will be tested for outcomes using regression adjusting for differences at baseline. Differential impacts by age, gender and socioeconomic position will be investigated.Component 3 used focus groups with young people and heavy drinkers and interviews with stakeholders before and after MUP implementation. The focus groups will allow exploration of attitudes, experiences and behaviours and the potential mechanisms by which impacts arise. The interviews will help characterise the implementation process. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Study components 1 and 2 have been ethically approved by the NHS, and component 3 by the University of Stirling. Dissemination plans include peer-reviewed journal articles, presentations, policy maker briefings and, in view of high public interest and the high political profile of this flagship policy, communication with the public via media engagement and plain language summaries. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16039407; Pre-results.

"A Lot of People Are Struggling Privately. They Don't Know Where to Go or They're Not Sure of What to Do": Frontline Service Provider Perspectives of the Nature of Household Food Insecurity in Scotland.

This qualitative study explored frontline service providers' perceptions of the nature of food insecurity in Scotland in 2015 to inform national policy and the provision of locally-based support for 'at risk' groups. A country-wide in-depth interview study was undertaken with informants from 25 health, social care, and third sector organisations. The study investigated informants' perspectives associated with how food insecurity was manifesting itself locally, and what was happening at the local level in response to the existence of food insecurity. Data analysis revealed three key themes. First, the multiple faces and factors of food insecurity involving not only increased concern for previously recognised 'at risk of food insecurity' groups, but also similar concern held about newly food insecure groups including working families, young people and women. Secondly, respondents witnessed stoicism and struggle, but also resistance amongst some food insecure individuals to external offers of help. The final theme identified community participation yet pessimism associated with addressing current and future needs of food insecure groups. These findings have important implications for the design and delivery of health and social policy in Scotland and other countries facing similar challenges.

What can Secondary Data Tell Us about Household Food Insecurity in a High-Income Country Context?

In the absence of routinely collected household food insecurity data, this study investigated what could be determined about the nature and prevalence of household food insecurity in Scotland from secondary data. Secondary analysis of the Living Costs and Food Survey (2007⁻2012) was conducted to calculate weekly food expenditure and its ratio to equivalised income for households below average income (HBAI) and above average income (non-HBAI). Diet Quality Index (DQI) scores were calculated for this survey and the Scottish Health Survey (SHeS, 2008 and 2012). Secondary data provided a partial picture of food insecurity prevalence in Scotland, and a limited picture of differences in diet quality. In 2012, HBAI spent significantly less in absolute terms per week on food and non-alcoholic drinks (£53.85) compared to non-HBAI (£86.73), but proportionately more of their income (29% and 15% respectively). Poorer households were less likely to achieve recommended fruit and vegetable intakes than were more affluent households. The mean DQI score (SHeS data) of HBAI fell between 2008 and 2012, and was significantly lower than the mean score for non-HBAI in 2012. Secondary data are insufficient to generate the robust and comprehensive picture needed to monitor the incidence and prevalence of food insecurity in Scotland.

Benefits of Incentives for Breastfeeding and Smoking cessation in pregnancy (BIBS): a mixed-methods study to inform trial design.

BACKGROUND: Smoking in pregnancy and/or not breastfeeding have considerable negative health outcomes for mother and baby. AIM: To understand incentive mechanisms of action for smoking cessation in pregnancy and breastfeeding, develop a taxonomy and identify promising, acceptable and feasible interventions to inform trial design. DESIGN: Evidence syntheses, primary qualitative survey, and discrete choice experiment (DCE) research using multidisciplinary, mixed methods. Two mother-and-baby groups in disadvantaged areas collaborated throughout. SETTING: UK. PARTICIPANTS: The qualitative study included 88 pregnant women/recent mothers/partners, 53 service providers, 24 experts/decision-makers and 63 conference attendees. The surveys included 1144 members of the general public and 497 health professionals. The DCE study included 320 women with a history of smoking. METHODS: (1) Evidence syntheses: incentive effectiveness (including meta-analysis and effect size estimates), delivery processes, barriers to and facilitators of smoking cessation in pregnancy and/or breastfeeding, scoping review of incentives for lifestyle behaviours; (2) qualitative research: grounded theory to understand incentive mechanisms of action and a framework approach for trial design; (3) survey: multivariable ordered logit models; (4) DCE: conditional logit regression and the log-likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: Out of 1469 smoking cessation and 5408 breastfeeding multicomponent studies identified, 23 smoking cessation and 19 breastfeeding studies were included in the review. Vouchers contingent on biochemically proven smoking cessation in pregnancy were effective, with a relative risk of 2.58 (95% confidence interval 1.63 to 4.07) compared with non-contingent incentives for participation (four studies, 344 participants). Effects continued until 3 months post partum. Inconclusive effects were found for breastfeeding incentives compared with no/smaller incentives (13 studies) but provider commitment contracts for breastfeeding show promise. Intervention intensity is a possible confounder. The acceptability of seven promising incentives was mixed. Women (for vouchers) and those with a lower level of education (except for breastfeeding incentives) were more likely to disagree. Those aged ≤ 44 years and ethnic minority groups were more likely to agree. Agreement was greatest for a free breast pump and least for vouchers for breastfeeding. Universal incentives were preferred to those targeting low-income women. Initial daily text/telephone support, a quitting pal, vouchers for > £20.00 per month and values up to £80.00 increase the likelihood of smoking cessation. Doctors disagreed with provider incentives. A 'ladder' logic model emerged through data synthesis and had face validity with service users. It combined an incentive typology and behaviour change taxonomy. Autonomy and well-being matter. Personal difficulties, emotions, socialising and attitudes of others are challenges to climbing a metaphorical 'ladder' towards smoking cessation and breastfeeding. Incentive interventions provide opportunity 'rungs' to help, including regular skilled flexible support, a pal, setting goals, monitoring and outcome verification. Individually tailored and non-judgemental continuity of care can bolster women's capabilities to succeed. Rigid, prescriptive interventions placing the onus on women to behave 'healthily' risk them feeling pressurised and failing. To avoid 'losing face', women may disengage. LIMITATIONS: Included studies were heterogeneous and of variable quality, limiting the assessment of incentive effectiveness. No cost-effectiveness data were reported. In surveys, selection bias and confounding are possible. The validity and utility of the ladder logic model requires evaluation with more diverse samples of the target population. CONCLUSIONS: Incentives provided with other tailored components show promise but reach is a concern. Formal evaluation is recommended. Collaborative service-user involvement is important. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42012001980. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Unintended consequences of incentive provision for behaviour change and maintenance around childbirth.

Financial (positive or negative) and non-financial incentives or rewards are increasingly used in attempts to influence health behaviours. While unintended consequences of incentive provision are discussed in the literature, evidence syntheses did not identify any primary research with the aim of investigating unintended consequences of incentive interventions for lifestyle behaviour change. Our objective was to investigate perceived positive and negative unintended consequences of incentive provision for a shortlist of seven promising incentive strategies for smoking cessation in pregnancy and breastfeeding. A multi-disciplinary, mixed-methods approach included involving two service-user mother and baby groups from disadvantaged areas with experience of the target behaviours as study co-investigators. Systematic reviews informed the shortlist of incentive strategies. Qualitative semi-structured interviews and a web-based survey of health professionals asked open questions on positive and negative consequences of incentives. The participants from three UK regions were a diverse sample with and without direct experience of incentive interventions: 88 pregnant women/recent mothers/partners/family members; 53 service providers; 24 experts/decision makers and interactive discussions with 63 conference attendees. Maternity and early years health professionals (n = 497) including doctors, midwives, health visitors, public health and related staff participated in the survey. Qualitative analysis identified ethical, political, cultural, social and psychological implications of incentive delivery at population and individual levels. Four key themes emerged: how incentives can address or create inequalities; enhance or diminish intrinsic motivation and wellbeing; have a positive or negative effect on relationships with others within personal networks or health providers; and can impact on health systems and resources by raising awareness and directing service delivery, but may be detrimental to other health care areas. Financial incentives are controversial and generated emotive and oppositional responses. The planning, design and delivery of future incentive interventions should evaluate unexpected consequences to inform the evidence for effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and future implementation.

Public acceptability of financial incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy and breast feeding: a survey of the British public.

OBJECTIVE: To survey public attitudes about incentives for smoking cessation in pregnancy and for breast feeding to inform trial design. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: British general public. METHODS: Seven promising incentive strategies had been identified from evidence syntheses and qualitative interview data from service users and providers. These were shopping vouchers for: (1) validated smoking cessation in pregnancy and (2) after birth; (3) for a smoke-free home; (4) for proven breast feeding; (5) a free breast pump; (6) payments to health services for reaching smoking cessation in pregnancy targets and (7) breastfeeding targets. Ipsos MORI used area quota sampling and home-administered computer-assisted questionnaires, with randomised question order to assess agreement with different incentives (measured on a five-point scale). Demographic data and target behaviour experience were recorded. Analysis used multivariable ordered logit models. RESULTS: Agreement with incentives was mixed (ranging from 34% to 46%) among a representative sample of 1144 British adults. Mean agreement score was highest for a free breast pump, and lowest for incentives for smoking abstinence after birth. More women disagreed with shopping vouchers than men. Those with lower levels of education disagreed more with smoking cessation incentives and a breast pump. Those aged 44 or under agreed more with all incentive strategies compared with those aged 65 and over, particularly provider targets for smoking cessation. Non-white ethnic groups agreed particularly with breastfeeding incentives. Current smokers with previous stop attempts and respondents who had breast fed children agreed with providing vouchers for the respective behaviours. Up to £40/month vouchers for behaviour change were acceptable (>85%). CONCLUSIONS: Women and the less educated were more likely to disagree, but men and women of childbearing age to agree, with incentives designed for their benefit. Trials evaluating reach, impact on health inequalities and ethnic groups are required prior to implementing incentive interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42012001980.

Active travel intervention and physical activity behaviour: an evaluation.

A physically active lifestyle is an important contributor to individual health and well-being. The evidence linking higher physical activity levels with better levels of morbidity and mortality is well understood. Despite this, physical inactivity remains a major global risk factor for mortality and, consequently, encouraging individuals to pursue physically active lifestyles has been an integral part of public health policy in many countries. Physical activity promotion and interventions are now firmly on national health policy agendas, including policies that promote active travel such as walking and cycling. This study evaluates one such active travel initiative, the Smarter Choices, Smarter Places programme in Scotland, intended to encourage uptake of walking, cycling and the use of public transport as more active forms of travel. House to house surveys were conducted before and after the programme intervention, in May/June 2009 and 2012 (12,411 surveys in 2009 and 9542 in 2012), for the evaluation of the programme. This paper analyses the physical activity data collected, focussing on what can be inferred from the initiative with regards to adult uptake of physical activity participation and whether, for those who participated in physical activity, the initiative impacted on meeting recommended physical activity guidelines. The results suggest that the initiative impacted positively on the likelihood of physical activity participation and meeting the recommended physical activity guidelines. Individuals in the intervention areas were on average 6% more likely to meet the physical activity guidelines compared to individuals in the non intervention areas. However, the absolute prevalence of physical activity participation declined in both intervention and control areas over time. Our evaluation of this active transport initiative indicates that similar programmes may aid in contributing to achieving physical activity targets and adds to the international evidence base on the benefits of active travel interventions.

The impact of a bodyweight and physical activity intervention (BeWEL) initiated through a national colorectal cancer screening programme: randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a diet and physical activity intervention (BeWEL) on weight change in people with a body mass index >25 weight (kg)/height (m)(2) at increased risk of colorectal cancer and other obesity related comorbidities. DESIGN: Multicentre, parallel group, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Four Scottish National Health Service health boards. PARTICIPANTS: 329 overweight or obese adults (aged 50 to 74 years) who had undergone colonoscopy after a positive faecal occult blood test result, as part of the national bowel screening programme, and had a diagnosis of adenoma confirmed by histopathology. 163 were randomised to intervention and 166 to control. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised to a control group (weight loss booklet only) or 12 month intervention group (three face to face visits with a lifestyle counsellor plus monthly 15 minute telephone calls). A goal of 7% reduction in body weight was set and participants received a personalised energy prescription (2508 kJ (600 kcal) below that required for weight maintenance) and bodyweight scales. Motivational interviewing techniques explored self assessed confidence, ambivalence, and personal values concerning weight. Behavioural strategies included goal setting, identifying intentions of implementation, self monitoring of body weight, and counsellor feedback about reported diet, physical activity, and weight change. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was weight change over 12 months. Secondary outcomes included changes in waist circumference, blood pressure, fasting cardiovascular biomarkers, and glucose metabolism variables, physical activity, diet, and alcohol consumption. RESULTS: At 12 months, data on the primary outcome were available for 148 (91%) participants in the intervention group and 157 (95%) in the control group. Mean weight loss was 3.50 kg (SD 4.91) (95% confidence interval 2.70 to 4.30) in the intervention group compared with 0.78 kg (SD 3.77) (0.19 to 1.38) in the control group. The group difference was 2.69 kg (95% confidence interval 1.70 to 3.67). Differences between groups were significant for waist circumference, body mass index, blood pressure, blood glucose level, diet, and physical activity. No reported adverse events were considered to be related to trial participation. CONCLUSIONS: Significant weight loss can be achieved by a diet and physical activity intervention initiated within a national colorectal cancer screening programme, offering considerable potential for risk reduction of disease in older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN53033856.

Smoking-related disease risk, area deprivation and health behaviours.

BACKGROUND: Smokers and ex-smokers are at risk of many chronic diseases. However, never smokers and never smokers exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) are also at risk. Additionally, smoking behaviours and their associated disease risk are socially patterned and positively associated with health inequalities. However, other lifestyle choices also contribute to health inequalities. We aim to assess the contribution of other lifestyle behaviours pertaining to alcohol, physical inactivity and weight to smoking-related disease risk across (i) the socioeconomic spectrum and (ii) smoking status. METHODS: Smoking-related disease risk is modelled using probit analysis. The results are used to predict disease risk across the socioeconomic dimension and smoking status for a set of healthy and unhealthy behaviours using the administratively linked Scottish Health Surveys and Scottish Morbidity Records. RESULTS: The results confirm the deprivation gradient in disease risk regardless of smoking status group. Imposition of healthy (unhealthy) lifestyle behaviours decreases (increases) the predicted risk across the deprivation distribution regardless of smoking status providing evidence of the multifaceted health behavioural determinants of disease risk across the deprivation distribution. CONCLUSION: The results are of policy interest as they suggest that to reduce inequalities in smoking-related diseases, interventions reducing both smoking and other unhealthy behaviours are required.

Services just for men? Insights from a national study of the Well Men Services Pilots.

BACKGROUND: Men continue to have a lower life expectancy in most countries compared to women. Explanations of this gendered health inequality tend to focus on male risk taking, unhealthy lifestyle choices and resistance to seeking help from health services. In the period 2005-2008 the Scottish Government funded a nationwide community health promotion programme aimed at improving men's health, called Well Men Service Pilots (henceforth WMS). METHOD: This paper explores WMS programme users' perspectives and experiences of health help-seeking against theories of hegemonic masculinity as explanatory frameworks for men's behaviour around health and illness, and their views on a male-specific focus of the programme. It is based on a secondary analysis of 43 semi-structured interviews with men who engaged with this programme. RESULTS: We challenge the commonly held notion of men as being disinterested in their health, and point to their heterogeneity in relation to their views about health and notions of health seeking. Moreover, men in our study were largely ambivalent about the need for gender specific services, despite their positive reactions to the programme in general. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings question the utility of some theories of masculinity that posit somewhat simplistic explanations for men's reluctance to seek help from formal healthcare services. They also suggest that providing male-specific health services may not significantly address men's supposed reluctance to seek help from formal health services. Essentially, age seemed to be more important than gender. All encompassing health programmes are likely to fail to meet their health improvement objectives if they attempt to engage with men on the simple basis that they are male.

Inequalities in the distribution of the costs of alcohol misuse in Scotland: a cost of illness study.

AIMS: To examine the distribution of the costs of alcohol misuse across Scotland in 2009/2010, in relation to deprivation. METHODS: A cost of illness approach was used. Alcohol-related harmful effects were assessed for inclusion using a literature review. This was based upon the following categories: direct healthcare costs, intangible health costs, social care costs, crime costs and labour and productivity costs. An analysis of secondary data supplemented by a literature review was carried out to quantify each harmful effect, determine its value and provide an estimate of the distribution by deprivation. The deprivation distributions used were area measures (primarily the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation). RESULTS: The overall cost was £7457 million. Two alcohol harmful effects were not included in the overall cost by deprivation due to a lack of data. These were 'children's social work and hearing system' and the criminal justice system costs from 'alcohol-specific offences'. The included alcohol harmful effects demonstrated that 40.41% of the total cost arose from the 20% most deprived areas. The intangible cost category was the largest category (78.65%). CONCLUSION: The study found that the burden of alcohol harmful effects is greater in deprived groups and these burdens do not simply arise from deprived groups but are also experienced more by these groups. The study was limited by a lack of data availability in certain areas, leading to less-precise cost estimates.

Tackling alcohol misuse: purchasing patterns affected by minimum pricing for alcohol.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol consumption is associated with a range of health and social harms that increase with the level of consumption. Policy makers are interested in effective and cost-effective interventions to reduce alcohol consumption and associated harms. Economic theory and research evidence demonstrate that increasing price is effective at the population level. Price interventions that target heavier consumers of alcohol may be more effective at reducing alcohol-related harms with less impact on moderate consumers. Minimum pricing per unit of alcohol has been proposed on this basis but concerns have been expressed that 'moderate drinkers of modest means' will be unfairly penalized. If those on low incomes are disproportionately affected by a policy that removes very cheap alcohol from the market, the policy could be regressive. The effect on households' budgets will depend on who currently purchases cheaper products and the extent to which the resulting changes in prices will impact on their demand for alcohol. This paper focuses on the first of these points. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to identify patterns of purchasing of cheap off-trade alcohol products, focusing on income and the level of all alcohol purchased. METHOD: Three years (2006-08) of UK household survey data were used. The Expenditure and Food Survey provides comprehensive 2-week data on household expenditure. Regression analyses were used to investigate the relationships between the purchase of cheap off-trade alcohol, household income levels and whether the household level of alcohol purchasing is categorized as moderate, hazardous or harmful, while controlling for other household and non-household characteristics. Predicted probabilities and quantities for cheap alcohol purchasing patterns were generated for all households. RESULTS: The descriptive statistics and regression analyses indicate that low-income households are not the predominant purchasers of any alcohol or even of cheap alcohol. Of those who do purchase off-trade alcohol, the lowest income households are the most likely to purchase cheap alcohol. However, when combined with the fact that the lowest income households are the least likely to purchase any off-trade alcohol, they have the lowest probability of purchasing cheap off-trade alcohol at the population level. Moderate purchasing households in all income quintiles are the group predicted as least likely to purchase cheap alcohol. The predicted average quantity of low-cost off-trade alcohol reveals similar patterns. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that heavier household purchasers of alcohol are most likely to be affected by the introduction of a 'minimum price per unit of alcohol' policy. When we focus only on those households that purchase off-trade alcohol, lower income households are the most likely to be affected. However, minimum pricing in the UK is unlikely to be significantly regressive when the effects are considered for the whole population, including those households that do not purchase any off-trade alcohol. Minimum pricing will affect the minority of low-income households that purchase off-trade alcohol and, within this group, those most likely to be affected are households purchasing at a harmful level.

Study protocol for BeWEL: the impact of a BodyWEight and physicaL activity intervention on adults at risk of developing colorectal adenomas.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second highest cause of cancer death in the UK. Most cases occur in people over 50 years and CRC often co-exists with other lifestyle related disorders including obesity, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). These diseases share risk factors related to the metabolic syndrome including large body size, abnormal lipids and markers of insulin resistance indicating common aetiological pathways. METHODS/DESIGN: This 3 year study will be a two-arm, multicentre, randomised controlled trial comparing the BeWEL lifestyle (diet, physical activity and behaviour change) programme against usual care. The pre-trial development will take 6 months and participants will be recruited over a 12 month period and undertake the intervention and follow up for 12 months (total 24 months recruitment and intervention implementation) with a further 6 months for data collection, analysis and interpretation.Four hundred and fifty two participants who have had a colorectal adenoma detected and removed (through the national colorectal screening programme) will provide 80% power to detect a weight loss of 7% over 12 months.Primary outcomes are changes in body weight and waist circumference. Secondary outcomes will include cardiovascular risk factors, psycho-social measures and intervention costs. DISCUSSION: The results from this study will enhance the evidence base for lifestyle change in patients at higher risk of chronic disease including obesity related cancers.International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials No: ISRCTN53033856.

Developing a timeline for evaluating public health nutrition policy interventions. What are the outcomes and when should we expect to see them?

OBJECTIVE: To develop a timeline for evaluating public health nutrition policy interventions. DESIGN: Concept mapping, a stakeholder-driven approach for developing an evaluation framework to estimate the 'time to impact' for policy interventions. The Schools (Health Promotion and Nutrition) (Scotland) Act 2007 was used as the model to develop the evaluation timeline as it had typical characteristics of government policy. Concept mapping requires stakeholders to generate a list of the potential outcomes, sort and rate the outcomes. Multidimensional scaling and hierarchical cluster data analysis were used to develop an anticipated timeline to impact for the policy. SETTING: United Kingdom. SUBJECTS: One hundred and eleven stakeholders representing nutrition, public health, medicine, education and catering in a range of sectors: research, policy, local government, National Health Service and schools. RESULTS: Eighty-five possible outcomes were identified and grouped into thirteen clusters describing higher-level themes (e.g. long-term health, food literacy, economics, behaviour, diet, education). Negative and unintended consequences were anticipated relatively soon after implementation of the policy, whereas positive outcomes (e.g. dietary changes, health benefits) were thought likely to take longer to emerge. Stakeholders responsible for implementing the legislation anticipated that it would take longer to observe changes than those from policy or research. CONCLUSIONS: Developing an anticipated timeline provides a realistic framework upon which to base an outcome evaluation for policy interventions and identifies positive and negative outcomes as well as considering possible unintended consequences. It offers benefit to both policy makers and researchers in mapping the progress expected towards long-term health goals and outcomes.