The economic burden of cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke in England in 2018, with projection to 2050: an evaluation of two cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke are major contributors to morbidity and mortality in England. We aimed to assess the economic burden (including health-care, social care, and informal care costs, as well as productivity losses) of these four conditions in England in 2018, and forecast this cost to 2050 using population projections. METHODS: We used individual patient-level data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) Aurum, which contains primary care electronic health records of patients from 738 general practices in England, to calculate health-care and residential and nursing home resource use, and data from the English Longitudinal Study on Ageing (ELSA) to calculate informal and formal care costs. From CPRD Aurum, we included patients registered on Jan 1, 2018, in a CPRD general practice with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)-linked records, omitting all children younger than 1 year. From ELSA, we included data collected from wave 9 (2018-19). Aggregate English resource use data on morbidity, mortality, and health-care, social care, and informal care were obtained and apportioned, using multivariable regression analyses, to cancer, coronary heart disease, dementia, and stroke. FINDINGS: We included 4 161 558 patients from CPRD Aurum with HES-linked data (mean age 41 years [SD 23], with 2 079 679 [50·0%] men and 2 081 879 [50·0%] women) and 8736 patients in ELSA (68 years [11], with 4882 [55·9 %] men and 3854 [44·1%] women). In 2018, the total cost was £18·9 billion (95% CI 18·4-19·4) for cancer, £12·7 billion (12·3-13·0) for coronary heart disease, £11·7 billion (9·6-12·7) for dementia, and £8·6 billion (8·2-9·0) for stroke. Using 2050 English population projections, we estimated that costs would rise by 40% (39-41) for cancer, 54% (53-55) for coronary heart disease, 100% (97-102) for dementia, and 85% (84-86) for stroke, for a total of £26·5 billion (25·7-27·3), £19·6 billion (18·9-20·2), £23·5 billion (19·3-25·3), and £16·0 billion (15·3-16·6), respectively. INTERPRETATION: This study provides contemporary estimates of the wide-ranging impact of the most important chronic conditions on all aspects of the economy in England. The data will help to inform evidence-based polices to reduce the impact of chronic disease, promoting care access, better health outcomes, and economic sustainability. FUNDING: Alzheimer's Research UK.

Decision-Making for Preventive Interventions in Asymptomatic Patients.

The decision to treat an incidental finding in an asymptomatic patient results from careful risk-benefit consideration and is often challenging. One of the main aspects is after how many years the group who underwent the intervention and faced the immediate treatment complications will gain a treatment benefit over the conservatively managed group, which maintains a lower but ongoing risk. We identify a common error in decision-making. We illustrate how a risk-based approach using the classical break-even point at the Kaplan-Meier curves can be misleading and advocate for using an outcome-based approach, counting the cumulative number of lost quality-adjusted life years instead. In clinical practice, we often add together the yearly risk of the natural course up to the time point where the number equals the risk of the intervention and assume that the patient will benefit from an intervention beyond this point in time. It corresponds to the crossing of the Kaplan-Meier curves. However, because treatment-related poor outcome occurs at the time of the intervention, while the poor outcome in the conservative group occurs over a given time period, the true benefit of retaining more quality-adjusted life years in the interventional group emerges at a much later time. To avoid overtreatment of patients with asymptomatic diseases, decision-making should be outcome-based with counting the cumulative loss of quality-adjusted life years, rather than risk-based, comparing the interventional risk with the ongoing yearly risk of the natural course.

Health-related quality of life and healthcare costs of symptoms and cardiovascular disease events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a longitudinal analysis of 27 countries from the EURObservational Research Programme on Atrial Fibrillation general long-term registry.

AIMS: We examine the effects of symptoms and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and healthcare costs in a European population with atrial fibrillation (AF). METHODS AND RESULTS: In the EURObservational Research Programme on AF long-term general registry, AF patients from 250 centres in 27 European countries were enrolled and followed for 2 years. We used fixed effects models to estimate the association of symptoms and CVD events on HRQOL and annual healthcare costs. We found significant decrements in HRQOL in AF patients in whom ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) [-0.075 (95% confidence interval -0.144, -0.006)], angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) [-0.037 (-0.071, -0.003)], new-onset/worsening heart failure [-0.064 (-0.088, -0.039)], bleeding events [-0.031 (-0.059, -0.003)], thromboembolic events [-0.071 (-0.115, -0.027)], mild symptoms [0.037 (-0.048, -0.026)], or severe/disabling symptoms [-0.090 (-0.108, -0.072)] occurred during the follow-up. During follow-up, annual healthcare costs were associated with an increase of €11 718 (€8497, €14 939) in patients with STEMI, €5823 (€4757, €6889) in patients with angina/NSTEMI, €3689 (€3219, €4158) in patients with new-onset or worsening heart failure, €3792 (€3315, €4270) in patients with bleeding events, and €3182 (€2483, €3881) in patients with thromboembolic events, compared with AF patients without these events. Healthcare costs were primarily driven by inpatient costs. There were no significant differences in HRQOL or healthcare resource use between EU regions or by sex. CONCLUSION: Symptoms and CVD events are associated with a high burden on AF patients and healthcare systems throughout Europe.

Infection, delirium, and risk of dementia in patients with and without white matter disease on previous brain imaging: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: The increased risk of dementia after delirium and infection might be influenced by cerebral white matter disease (WMD). In patients with transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke, we assessed associations between hospital admissions with delirium and 5-year dementia risk and between admissions with infection and dementia risk, stratified by WMD severity (moderate or severe vs absent or mild) on baseline brain imaging. METHODS: We included patients with TIA and minor stroke (National Institutes of Health Stroke Score <3) from the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC), a longitudinal population-based study of the incidence and outcomes of acute vascular events in a population of 94 567 individuals, with no age restrictions, attending eight general practices in Oxfordshire, UK. Hospitalisation data were obtained through linkage to the Oxford Cognitive Comorbidity, Frailty, and Ageing Research Database-Electronic Patient Records (ORCHARD-EPR). Brain imaging was done using CT and MRI, and WMD was prospectively graded according to the age-related white matter changes (ARWMC) scale and categorised into absent, mild, moderate, or severe WMD. Delirium and infection were defined by ICD-10 coding supplemented by hand-searching of hospital records. Dementia was diagnosed using clinical or cognitive assessment, medical records, and death certificates. Associations between hospitalisation with delirium and hospitalisation with infection, and post-event dementia were assessed using time-varying Cox analysis with multivariable adjustment, and all models were stratified by WMD severity. FINDINGS: From April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2012, 1369 individuals were prospectively recruited into the study. Of 1369 patients (655 with TIA and 714 with minor stroke, mean age 72 [SD 13] years, 674 female and 695 male, and 364 with moderate or severe WMD), 209 (15%) developed dementia. Hospitalisation during follow-up occurred in 891 (65%) patients of whom 103 (12%) had at least one delirium episode and 236 (26%) had at least one infection episode. Hospitalisation without delirium or infection did not predict subsequent dementia (HR 1·01, 95% CI 0·86-1·20). In contrast, hospitalisation with delirium predicted subsequent dementia independently of infection in patients with and without WMD (2·64, 1·47-4·74; p=0·0013 vs 3·41, 1·91-6·09; p<0·0001) especially in those with unimpaired baseline cognition (cognitive test score above cutoff; 4·01, 2·23-7·19 vs 3·94, 1·95-7·93; both p≤0·0001). However, hospitalisation with infection only predicted dementia in those with moderate or severe WMD (1·75, 1·04-2·94 vs 0·68, 0·39-1·20; pdiff=0·023). INTERPRETATION: The increased risk of dementia after delirium is unrelated to the presence of WMD, whereas infection increases risk only in patients with WMD, suggesting differences in underlying mechanisms and in potential preventive strategies. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research and Wellcome Trust.

Improving sleep after stroke: A randomised controlled trial of digital cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia.

Stroke is frequently accompanied by long-term sleep disruption. We therefore aimed to assess the efficacy of digital cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia to improve sleep after stroke. A parallel group randomised controlled trial was conducted remotely in participant's homes/online. Randomisation was online with minimisation of between-group differences in age and baseline Sleep Condition Indicator-8 score. In total, 86 community-dwelling stroke survivors consented, of whom 84 completed baseline assessments (39 female, mean 5.5 years post-stroke, mean 59 years old), and were randomised to digital cognitive behavioural therapy or control (sleep hygiene information). Follow-up was at post-intervention (mean 75 days after baseline) and 8 weeks later. The primary outcome was self-reported insomnia symptoms, as per the Sleep Condition Indicator-8 (range 0-32, lower numbers indicate more severe insomnia, reliable change 7 points) at post-intervention. There were significant improvements in Sleep Condition Indicator-8 for digital cognitive behavioural therapy compared with control (intention-to-treat, digital cognitive behavioural therapy n = 48, control n = 36, 5 imputed datasets, effect of group p ≤ 0.02, η p 2 = 0.07-0.12 [medium size effect], pooled mean difference = -3.35). Additionally, secondary outcomes showed shorter self-reported sleep-onset latencies and better mood for the digital cognitive behavioural therapy group, but no significant differences for self-efficacy, quality of life or actigraphy-derived sleep parameters. Cost-effectiveness analysis found that digital cognitive behavioural therapy dominates over control (non-significant cost savings and higher quality-adjusted life years). No related serious adverse events were reported to the researchers. Overall, digital cognitive behavioural therapy for insomnia effectively improves sleep after stroke. Future research is needed to assess earlier stages post-stroke, with a longer follow-up period to determine whether it should be included as part of routine post-stroke care. Clinicaltrials.gov NCT04272892.

Association of multimorbidity with mortality after stroke stratified by age, severity, etiology, and prior disability.

BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is common in patients with stroke and is associated with increased medium- to long-term mortality, but its value for clinical decision-making and case-mix adjustment will depend on other factors, such as age, stroke severity, etiological subtype, prior disability, and vascular risk factors. AIMS: In the absence of previous studies, we related multimorbidity to long-term post-stroke mortality with stratification by these factors. METHODS: In patients ascertained in a population-based stroke incidence study (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2017), we related pre-stroke multimorbidity (weighted/unweighted Charlson comorbidity index (CCI)) to all-cause/vascular/non-vascular mortality (1/5/10 years) using regression models adjusted/stratified by age, sex, predicted early outcome (THRIVE score), stroke severity (NIH stroke scale (NIHSS)), etiology (Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST)), premorbid disability (modified Rankin Scale (mRS)), and non-CCI risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, atrial fibrillation, smoking, deprivation, anxiety/depression). RESULTS: Among 2454 stroke patients (M/SD age: 74.1/13.9 years; 48.9% male; M/SD NIHSS: 5.7/7.0), 1375/56.0% had ⩾ 1 CCI comorbidity and 685/27.9% had ⩾ 2. After age/sex adjustment, multimorbidity (unweighted CCI ⩾ 2 vs 0) predicted (all ps < 0.001) mortality at 1 year (aHR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.38-1.78), 5 years (aHR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.53-1.96), and 10 years (aHR = 1.79, 95% CI = 1.58-2.03). Although multimorbidity was independently associated with premorbid disability (mRS > 2: aOR = 2.76, 2.13-3.60) and non-CCI risk factors (hypertension: 1.56, 1.25-1.95; hyperlipidemia: 2.58, 2.03-3.28; atrial fibrillation: 2.31; 1.78-2.98; smoking: 1.37, 1.01-1.86), it predicted death after adjustment for all measured confounders (10-year-aHR = 1.56, 1.37-1.78, p < 0.001), driven mainly by non-vascular death (aHR = 1.89, 1.55-2.29). Predictive value for 10-year all-cause death was greatest in patients with lower expected early mortality: lower THRIVE score (pint < 0.001), age < 75 years (aHR = 2.27, 1.71-3.00), NIHSS < 5 (1.84, 1.53-2.21), and lacunar stroke (3.56, 2.14-5.91). Results were similar using the weighted CCI. CONCLUSION: Pre-stroke multimorbidity is highly prevalent and is an independent predictor of death after stroke, supporting its inclusion in case-mix adjustment models and in informing decision-making by patients, families, and carers. Prediction in younger patients and after minor stroke, particularly for non-vascular death, suggests potential clinical utility in targeting interventions that require survival for 5-10 years to achieve a favorable risk/benefit ratio. DATA ACCESS STATEMENT: Data requests will be considered by the Oxford Vascular Study (OXVASC) Study Director (P.M.R.-peter.rothwell@ndcn.ox.ac.uk).

Cardiovascular disease burden due to productivity losses in European Society of Cardiology countries.

OBJECTIVE: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death across Europe. We estimated lost earnings (productivity losses) associated with premature mortality due to CVD, and separately for its main sub-categories of coronary heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, across 54 country members of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a standardized approach to estimate working years and earnings lost due to premature death resulting from CVD across the 54 ESC member countries in 2018. Our population-based approach was based on national data on the number of deaths, employment rates, and earnings by age group and sex. We discounted future working years and earnings lost to present values using a 3.5% annual rate. In 2018, there were 4.4 million deaths due to CVD across the 54 countries, with 7.1 million working years lost. This represented productivity losses due to premature death of €62 billion in 2018. Deaths due to coronary heart disease accounted for 47% (€29 billion) of all CVD costs, and cerebrovascular disease accounted for 18% (€11 billion). Approximately 60% (€37 billion) of all productivity losses occurred in the 28 European Union member states, despite accounting for only 42% (1.8 million) of deaths and 21% (1.5 million) of working years lost across the 54 countries. CONCLUSION: Our study provides a snapshot of the economic consequences posed by premature mortality due to CVD across 54 countries in 2018. The considerable variation across countries highlights the potential gains from policies targeting prevention and care of cardiovascular diseases.

NHS reference costs: a history and cautionary note.

Historically, the NHS did not routinely collect cost data, unlike many countries with private insurance markets. In 1998, for the first time the government mandated NHS trusts to submit estimates of their costs of service, known as reference costs. These have informed a wide range of health economic evaluations and important functions in the health service, such as setting prices.Reference costs are collected by progressively disaggregating budgets top-down into disease and treatment groups. Despite ongoing improvements to methods and guidance, these submissions continued to suffer a lack of accuracy and comparability, fundamentally undermining their credibility for critical functions.To overcome these issues, there was a long-held ambition to collect "patient-level" cost data. Patient-level costs are estimated with a combination of disaggregating budgets but also capturing the patient-level "causality of costs" bottom-up in the allocation of resources to patient episodes. These not only aim to capture more of the drivers of costs, but also improve consistency of reporting between providers.The change in methods may confer improvements to data quality, though judgement is still required and achieving consistency between trusts will take further work. Estimated costs may also change in important ways that may take many years to fully understand. We end on a cautionary note that patient-level cost methods may unlock potential, they alone contribute little to our understanding of the complexities involved with service quality or need, while that potential will require substantial investment to realise. Many healthcare resources cannot be attributed to individual patients so the very notion of "patient-level" costs may be misplaced. High hopes have been put in these new data, though much more work is now necessary to understand their quality, what they show and how their use will impact the system.

Economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the European Union: a population-based cost study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) impacts significantly health and social care systems as well as society through premature mortality and disability, with patients requiring care from relatives. Previous pan-European estimates of the economic burden of CVD are now outdated. This study aims to provide novel, up-to-date evidence on the economic burden across the 27 European Union (EU) countries in 2021. METHODS: Aggregate country-specific resource use data on morbidity, mortality, and health, social and informal care were obtained from international sources, such as the Statistical Office of the European Communities, enhanced by data from the European Society of Cardiology Atlas programme and patient-level data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Country-specific unit costs were used, with cost estimates reported on a per capita basis, after adjustment for price differentials. RESULTS: CVD is estimated to cost the EU €282 billion annually, with health and long-term care accounting for €155 billion (55%), equalling 11% of EU-health expenditure. Productivity losses accounted for 17% (€48 billion), whereas informal care costs were €79 billion (28%). CVD represented a cost of €630 per person, ranging from €381 in Cyprus to €903 in Germany. Coronary heart disease accounted for 27% (€77 billion) and cerebrovascular diseases for 27% (€76 billion) of CVD costs. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides contemporary estimates of the wide-ranging impact of CVD on all aspects of the economy. The data help inform evidence-based policies to reduce the impact of CVD, promoting care access and better health outcomes and economic sustainability.

The randomised thoracoscopic talc poudrage+indwelling pleural catheters versus thoracoscopic talc poudrage only in malignant pleural effusion trial (TACTIC): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural effusion (MPE) is common, with 50 000 new cases per year in the UK. MPE causes disabling breathlessness and indicates advanced disease with a poor prognosis. Treatment approaches focus on symptom relief and optimising quality of life (QoL). Patients who newly present with MPE commonly require procedural intervention for both diagnosis and therapeutic benefit.Thoracoscopic pleural biopsies are highly sensitive in diagnosing pleural malignancy. Talc poudrage may be delivered at thoracoscopy (TTP) to prevent effusion recurrence by effecting pleurodesis. Indwelling pleural catheters (IPCs) offer an alternative strategy for fluid control, enabling outpatient management and are often used as 'rescue' therapy following pleurodesis failure or in cases of 'trapped lung'. It is unknown whether combining a TTP with IPC insertion will improve patient symptoms or reduce time spent in the hospital.The randomised thoracoscopic talc poudrage + indwelling pleural catheters versus thoracoscopic talc poudrage only in malignant pleural effusion trial (TACTIC) is the first randomised controlled trial (RCT) to examine the benefit of a combined TTP and IPC procedure, evaluating cost-effectiveness and patient-centred outcomes such as symptoms and QoL. The study remains in active recruitment and has the potential to radically transform the pathway for all patients presenting with MPE. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: TACTIC is an unblinded, multicentre, RCT comparing the combination of TTP with an IPC to TTP alone. Co-primary outcomes are time spent in the hospital and mean breathlessness score over 4 weeks postprocedure. The study will recruit 124 patients and aims to define the optimal pathway for patients presenting with symptomatic MPE. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: TACTIC is sponsored by North Bristol NHS Trust and has been granted ethical approval by the London-Brent Research Ethics Committee (REC ref: 21/LO/0495). Publication of results in a peer-reviewed journal and conference presentations are anticipated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN 11058680.

Cost-effectiveness of ambulatory care management of primary spontaneous pneumothorax: an open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Ambulatory management of primary spontaneous pneumothorax has been shown to reduce initial hospitalisation, but at the expense of increase adverse events. As a result, questions remain about the cost-effectiveness of this option. OBJECTIVES: A within-trial economic evaluation alongside a randomised controlled trial was performed to assess the cost-effectiveness of ambulatory care when compared with standard guideline-based management. METHODS: Patients were randomly assigned to treatment with either an ambulatory device or standard guideline-based management (aspiration, standard chest tube insertion or both). Follow-up was 12 months. Outcomes included healthcare resource use and costs, quality of life, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: 236 patients were recruited and randomly assigned to ambulatory care (n=117) and standard care (n=119). After multiple imputation for missing data, patients in the ambulatory care group had significantly lower National Health Service healthcare costs (-£788, 95% CI difference: -1527 to -50; p=0.037) than those in the standard care group. There were no differences in the number of QALYs gained (mean difference: -0.001, 95% CI difference: -0.032 to 0.030; p=0.95). When standard care was compared with ambulatory care, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £799 066 per QALY gained, well above current thresholds of cost-effectiveness. As a result, the probability of ambulatory care being cost-effective was 0.93. CONCLUSION: Outpatient ambulatory management is highly likely to be a cost-effective option in the management of primary pneumothorax. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN79151659.

Cost-effectiveness of home-based stroke rehabilitation across Europe: A modelling study.

The aim of this study was to explore the cost-effectiveness of home-based versus centre-based rehabilitation in stroke patients across Europe. A state-transition cohort model was developed to simulate the impact of the intervention in 32 European countries. A cost-utility analysis was conducted from a societal perspective including healthcare, social care and informal care costs, and productivity losses. Health outcomes were expressed as QALYs. Sensitivity analyses were conducted concerning model input values and structural assumptions. Data were obtained from a population-based cohort and previously published studies. Across Europe, over 855,000 patients with stroke would be eligible for rehabilitation in 2017. Europe-wide implementation of home-based rehabilitation was estimated to produce 61,888 additional QALYs (95% CI: 3,609 to 118,679) and cost savings of €237 million (95% CI: -237 to 1,764) and of €352 million (95% CI: -340 to 2,237) in health- and social-care and societal costs, respectively. Under base case assumptions, home-based rehabilitation was found highly likely to be cost-effective (>90%), compared to centre-based rehabilitation, in most European countries (29 out of 32). Evidence from this study suggests that a shift from a centre-based to a home-based approach to stroke rehabilitation is likely to be good value for money in most European countries. Further research should be conducted to assess the generalisability of these findings to local settings.

Role of thoracic ultrasonography in pleurodesis pathways for malignant pleural effusions (SIMPLE): an open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Pleurodesis is done as an in-patient procedure to control symptomatic recurrent malignant pleural effusion (MPE) and has a success rate of 75-80%. Thoracic ultrasonography has been shown in a small study to predict pleurodesis success early by demonstrating cessation of lung sliding (a normal sign seen in healthy patients, lung sliding indicates normal movement of the lung inside the thorax). We aimed to investigate whether the use of thoracic ultrasonography in pleurodesis pathways could shorten hospital stay in patients with MPE undergoing pleurodesis. METHODS: The Efficacy of Sonographic and Biological Pleurodesis Indicators of Malignant Pleural Effusion (SIMPLE) trial was an open-label, randomised controlled trial done in ten respiratory centres in the UK and one respiratory centre in the Netherlands. Adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with confirmed MPE who required talc pleurodesis via either a chest tube or as poudrage during medical thorascopy were eligible. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to thoracic ultrasonography-guided care or standard care via an online platform using a minimisation algorithm. In the intervention group, daily thoracic ultrasonography examination for lung sliding in nine regions was done to derive an adherence score: present (1 point), questionable (2 points), or absent (3 points), with a lowest possible score of 9 (preserved sliding) and a highest possible score of 27 (complete absence of sliding); the chest tube was removed if the score was more than 20. In the standard care group, tube removal was based on daily output volume (per British Thoracic Society Guidelines). The primary outcome was length of hospital stay, and secondary outcomes were pleurodesis failure at 3 months, time to tube removal, all-cause mortality, symptoms and quality-of-life scores, and cost-effectiveness of thoracic ultrasonography-guided care. All outcomes were assessed in the modified intention-to-treat population (patients with missing data excluded), and a non-inferiority analysis of pleurodesis failure was done in the per-protocol population. This trial was registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN16441661. FINDINGS: Between Dec 31, 2015, and Dec 17, 2019, 778 patients were assessed for eligibility and 313 participants (165 [53%] male) were recruited and randomly assigned to thoracic ultrasonography-guided care (n=159) or standard care (n=154). In the modified intention-to-treat population, the median length of hospital stay was significantly shorter in the intervention group (2 days [IQR 2-4]) than in the standard care group (3 days [2-5]; difference 1 day [95% CI 1-1]; p<0·0001). In the per-protocol analysis, thoracic ultrasonography-guided care was non-inferior to standard care in terms of pleurodesis failure at 3 months, which occurred in 27 (29·7%) of 91 patients in the intervention group versus 34 (31·2%) of 109 patients in the standard care group (risk difference -1·5% [95% CI -10·2% to 7·2%]; non-inferiority margin 15%). Mean time to chest tube removal in the intervention group was 2·4 days (SD 2·5) versus 3·1 days (2·0) in the standard care group (mean difference -0·72 days [95% CI -1·22 to -0·21]; p=0·0057). There were no significant between-group differences in all-cause mortality, symptom scores, or quality-of-life scores, except on the EQ-5D visual analogue scale, which was significantly lower in the standard care group at 3 months. Although costs were similar between the groups, thoracic ultrasonography-guided care was cost-effective compared with standard care. INTERPRETATION: Thoracic ultrasonography-guided care for pleurodesis in patients with MPE results in shorter hospital stay (compared with the British Thoracic Society recommendation for pleurodesis) without reducing the success rate of the procedure at 3 months. The data support consideration of standard use of thoracic ultrasonography in patients undergoing MPE-related pleurodesis. FUNDING: Marie Curie Cancer Care Committee.

Long-Term Impact of Urgent Secondary Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack and Minor Stroke: Ten-Year Follow-Up of the EXPRESS Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Urgent assessment aimed at reducing stroke risk after transient ischemic attack or minor stroke is cost-effective over the short-term. However, it is unclear if the short-term impact is lost on long-term follow-up, with recurrent events being delayed rather than prevented. By 10-year follow-up of the EXPRESS study (Early Use of Existing Preventive Strategies for Stroke), previously showing urgent assessment reduced 90-day stroke risk by 80%, we determined whether that early benefit was still evident long-term for stroke risk, disability, and costs. METHODS: EXPRESS was a prospective population-based before (phase 1: April 2002-September 2004; n=310) versus after (phase 2: October 2004-March 2007; n=281) study of the effect of early assessment and treatment of transient ischemic attack/minor stroke on early recurrent stroke risk, with an external control. This report assesses the effect on 10-year recurrent stroke risk, functional outcomes, quality-of-life, and costs. RESULTS: A reduction in stroke risk in phase 2 was still evident at 10 years (55/23.3% versus 82/31.6%; hazard ratio=0.68 [95% CI, 0.48-0.95]; P=0.024), as was the impact on risk of disabling or fatal stroke (17/7.7% versus 32/13.1%; hazard ratio=0.54 [0.30-0.97]; P=0.036). These effects were due to maintenance of the early reduction in stroke risk, with neither additional benefit nor rebound catch-up after 90 days (post-90 days hazard ratio=0.88 [0.65-1.44], P=0.88; and hazard ratio=0.83 [0.42-1.65], P=0.59, respectively). Disability-free life expectancy was 0.59 (0.03-1.15; P=0.043) years higher in patients in phase 2, as was quality-adjusted life expectancy (0.49 [0.03-0.95]; P=0.036). Overall, 10-year costs were nonsignificantly higher in patients attending the phase 2 clinic ($1022 [-3865-5907]; P=0.66). The additional cost per quality-adjusted life year gained in phase 2 versus phase 1 was $2103, well below current cost-effectiveness thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Urgent assessment and treatment of patients with transient ischemic attack or minor stroke resulted in a long-term reduction in recurrent strokes and improved outcomes, with little atrophy of the early benefit over time, representing good value for money even with a 10-year time horizon. Our results suggest that other effective acute treatments in transient ischemic attack/minor stroke in the short-term will also have the potential to have long-term benefit.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mechanical Thrombectomy for Treatment of Nonminor Ischemic Stroke Across Europe.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mechanical thrombectomy (MT) has been recommended for the treatment of nonminor ischemic stroke by national and international guidelines, but cost-effectiveness evidence has been generated for only a few countries using heterogeneous evaluation methods. We estimate the cost-effectiveness of MT across 32 European countries. METHODS: A Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of MT compared with standard care over a 5-year time horizon. Patients with ischemic stroke eligible for MT were identified from 2017 country-specific incidence data. A societal perspective was adopted, including health, social, and informal care costs, and productivity losses. Model outcomes were expressed as quality-adjusted life years. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the robustness of findings. RESULTS: We identified 267 514 ischemic stroke cases that were eligible for MT treatment across 32 European countries. MT was found to be more effective and cheaper than standard care in two-thirds of the countries (21/32) and cost-effective in all but one country (Bulgaria). Across Europe, the intervention was estimated to produce over 101 327 additional quality-adjusted life years (95% uncertainty interval, 65 180-149 085) and cost savings of $981 million (€868 million, 95% uncertainty interval, -1544 to 2564) and of $1.7 billion (€1.5 billion, 95% uncertainty interval, -1.2 to 3.6) in health and social care and societal costs, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: MT is highly likely to be cost-effective compared with standard care across Europe as a whole and in the vast majority of European countries.

Costs of bleeding on long-term antiplatelet treatment without routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Long-term antiplatelet treatment is associated with major bleeding. AIMS: To determine the costs associated with major bleeding in patients treated with aspirin-based antiplatelet treatment for secondary prevention of vascular events without routine prescription of proton-pump inhibitors and to estimate the likely long-term savings from routine co-prescription. METHODS: In a prospective population-based cohort study of TIA, ischemic stroke, and MI treated with antiplatelet drugs, we evaluated hospital care costs associated with bleed management during 10-year follow-up. Bleeding-associated costs were averaged across all patients. For upper GI-bleeds, mean costs were compared with the cost of routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor. RESULTS: Among 3166 patients on antiplatelet therapy with 405 first bleeding events, the average cost of major bleeding was $13,093 (S.D. 20,501), with similar costs for upper GI bleeds and intracranial bleeds (p = 0.235). However, total costs among the 3166 patients were higher for upper GI bleeds ($1,158,385 vs. $740,123). Averaged across all patients, the 10-year cost of major bleeding was $838 (95%CI: 680-1007), $411 due to upper GI bleeding, the cost of which increased from $175 in those aged <75 years to $644 at age ≥75 years (p < 0.0001). The corresponding costs of routine life-long co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor to those patients not on prior treatment were $85 (84-88) and $39 (38-42). CONCLUSIONS: In secondary prevention with aspirin-based antiplatelet treatment without routine proton-pump inhibitor use, the long-term costs of upper-GI bleeding at age ≥75 years are much higher than at younger age groups, and are at least 10-fold greater than the drug cost of routine co-prescription of proton-pump inhibitor.

Late functional improvement and 5-year poststroke outcomes: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Late functional improvement between 3 and 12 months poststroke occurs in about one in four patients with ischaemic stroke, more commonly in lacunar strokes. It is unknown whether this late improvement is associated with better long-term clinical or health economic outcomes. METHODS: In a prospective, population-based cohort of 1-year ischaemic stroke survivors (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2014), we examined changes in functional status (modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI), Barthel Index (BI)) from 3 to 12 months poststroke. We used Cox regressions adjusted for age, sex, 3-month disability and stroke subtype (lacunar vs non-lacunar) to examine the association of late improvement (by ≥1 mRS grades, ≥1 RMI points and/or ≥2 BI points between 3 and 12 months) with 5-year mortality and institutionalisation. We used similarly adjusted generalised linear models to examine association with 5-year healthcare/social-care costs. RESULTS: Among 1288 one-year survivors, 1135 (88.1%) had 3-month mRS >0, of whom 319 (28.1%) demonstrated late functional improvement between 3 and 12 months poststroke. Late improvers had lower 5-year mortality (aHR per mRS=0.68, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.91, p=0.009), institutionalisation (aHR 0.48, 0.33 to 0.72, p<0.001) and healthcare/social care costs (margin US$17 524, -24 763 to -10 284, p<0.001). These associations remained on excluding patients with recurrent strokes during follow-up (eg, 5-year mortality/institutionalisation: aHR 0.59, 0.44 to 0.79, p<0.001) and on examining late improvement per RMI and/or BI (eg, 5-year mortality/institutionalisation with RMI/BI: aHR 0.73, 0.58 to 0.92, p=0.008). CONCLUSION: Late functional improvement poststroke is associated with lower 5-year mortality, institutionalisation rates and healthcare/social care costs. These findings should motivate patients and clinicians to maximise late recovery in routine practice, and to consider extending access to proven rehabilitative therapies during the first year poststroke.

Weights for ordinal analyses of the modified Rankin Scale in stroke trials: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ordinal/shift analyses of ordered measures like the modified Rankin Scale(mRS) are underused as primary trial outcomes for neurological disorders - despite statistical advantages - potentially hindered by poor clinical interpretability versus dichotomies, and by valuing state-transitions equally (linear scale). Weighted ordinal analyses incorporating step-changes at key transitions might have greater statistical validity and clinical applicability. METHODS: In a prospective population-based cohort of ischaemic stroke (Oxford Vascular Study, recruited 2002-2014), we stratified 5-year outcomes of death, dementia, and/or institutionalization, health/social-care costs, and EuroQol-derived quality-adjusted life-expectancy(QALE) by 3-month mRS. We compared root-mean-square errors(RMSEs) from linear regressions for these outcomes with the mRS coded as a linear scale versus incorporating a spline at transitions 1-2, 2-3, or 3-4. We derived 3-month mRS weights for probability of 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization using age/sex-adjusted logistic regressions, and cost and QALE weights from 1000-bootstraps. We applied these weights to analyse recent trials of thrombectomy for acute ischaemic stroke. FINDINGS: Among 1,607 patients, a non-linear (S-shaped) relationship was observed between 3-month mRS and each 5-year outcome, with RMSEs 18-73% lower using a spline at mRS 2-3 versus a linear representation. Age/sex-adjusted probability weights for 5-year death/dementia/institutionalization were: mRS 0=0.19; 1=0.27; 2=0.41; 3=0.73; 4=0.77; 5=0.94 (mRS 6=1 by definition). Similar trends were seen with costs; estimated 5-year QALEs were: mRS 0=3.88; 1=3.49; 2=3.01; 3=1.87; 4=1.30; 5=0.06; 6=0. Results were similar stratifying by age/sex, and excluding pre-morbidly disabled patients. Using a weighted ordinal approach, estimates of thrombectomy impact were more favourable than estimates with dichotomous approaches, 5-year cost reductions being 29% higher than with 0-2/3-6, and over three-fold higher than with 0-1/2-6 dichotomy. INTERPRETATION: Our findings favour weighting the mRS in ordinal analyses for stroke and other neurological disorders, as state-transitions differ in clinical prognosis, quality-of-life, and costs. These weights could also be used for prognostication and cost-effectiveness analyses. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, Rhodes Trust.

Thoracoscopy and talc poudrage compared with intercostal drainage and talc slurry infusion to manage malignant pleural effusion: the TAPPS RCT.

BACKGROUND: There are around 40,000 new cases of malignant pleural effusion in the UK each year. Insertion of talc slurry via a chest tube is the current standard treatment in the UK. However, some centres prefer local anaesthetic thoracoscopy and talc poudrage. There is no consensus as to which approach is most effective. OBJECTIVE: This trial tested the hypothesis that thoracoscopy and talc poudrage increases the proportion of patients with successful pleurodesis at 3 months post procedure, compared with chest drain insertion and talc slurry. DESIGN: This was a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial with embedded economic evaluation. Follow-up took place at 1, 3 and 6 months. SETTING: This trial was set in 17 NHS hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 330 adults with a confirmed diagnosis of malignant pleural effusion needing pleurodesis and fit to undergo thoracoscopy under local anaesthetic were included. Those adults needing a tissue diagnosis or with evidence of lung entrapment were excluded. INTERVENTIONS: Allocation took place following minimisation with a random component, performed by a web-based, centralised computer system. Participants in the control arm were treated with a bedside chest drain insertion and 4 g of talc slurry. In the intervention arm, participants underwent local anaesthetic thoracoscopy with 4 g of talc poudrage. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was pleurodesis failure at 90 days post randomisation. Secondary outcome measures included mortality and patient-reported symptoms. A cost-utility analysis was also performed. RESULTS: A total of 166 and 164 patients were allocated to poudrage and slurry, respectively. Participants were well matched at baseline. For the primary outcome, no significant difference in pleurodesis failure was observed between the treatment groups at 90 days, with rates of 36 out of 161 (22%) and 38 out of 159 (24%) noted in the poudrage and slurry groups, respectively (odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.54 to 1.55; p = 0.74). No differences (or trends towards difference) were noted in adverse events or any of the secondary outcomes at any time point, including pleurodesis failure at 180 days [poudrage 46/161 (29%), slurry 44/159 (28%), odds ratio 1.05, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.73; p = 0.86], mean number of nights in hospital over 90 days [poudrage 12 nights (standard deviation 13 nights), slurry 11 nights (standard deviation 10 nights); p = 0.35] and all-cause mortality at 180 days [poudrage 66/166 (40%), slurry 68/164 (42%); p = 0.70]. At £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, poudrage would have a 0.36 probability of being cost-effective compared with slurry. LIMITATIONS: Entry criteria specified that patients must be sufficiently fit to undergo thoracoscopy, which may make the results less applicable to those patients presenting with a greater degree of frailty. Furthermore, the trial was conducted on an open-label basis, which may have influenced the results of patient-reported measures. CONCLUSIONS: The TAPPS (evaluating the efficacy of Thoracoscopy And talc Poudrage versus Pleurodesis using talc Slurry) trial has robustly demonstrated that there is no additional clinical effectiveness or cost-effectiveness benefit in performing talc poudrage at thoracoscopy over bedside chest drain and talc slurry for the management of malignant pleural effusion. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN47845793. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 26. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

In patients with cancer, fluid can build up in the space between the chest wall and lung, causing breathlessness. The fluid can be drained using a small tube inserted between the ribs under local anaesthetic. However, it often recurs. To avoid this, doctors usually inject talc powder (mixed into a slurry) back down the drainage tube to try to 'stick' the lung to the inside of the chest wall. If successful, this prevents the fluid reforming. This procedure is called pleurodesis. An alternative is to insert a camera into the chest under light sedation and local anaesthetic (a 'thoracoscopy') and spray talc directly onto the inside of the chest wall (poudrage). This may be more effective, although this has not been proven and it is a slightly more complex procedure. Therefore, this trial was conducted to see if poudrage was more effective than slurry. A total of 330 patients were recruited from 17 UK hospitals who had chest fluid due to cancer. They were divided evenly, with half receiving standard drainage and slurry and the other half receiving a thoracoscopy and poudrage. They were followed up for 6 months. We measured how many experienced a recurrence in fluid build-up 3 months after treatment, as well as other impacts, including if there was any difference in the long-term costs. No difference in clinical effectiveness was found between talc poudrage and talc slurry. Poudrage was unlikely to be cost-effective. In summary, the researchers conclude that slurry is likely to be the preferable method.