Finnish study of intraoperative irrigation versus drain alone after evacuation of chronic subdural haematoma (FINISH): a study protocol for a multicentre randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic subdural haematomas (CSDHs) are one of the most common neurosurgical conditions. The goal of surgery is to alleviate symptoms and minimise the risk of symptomatic recurrences. In the past, reoperation rates as high as 20%-30% were described for CSDH recurrences. However, following the introduction of subdural drainage, reoperation rates dropped to approximately 10%. The standard surgical technique includes burr-hole craniostomy, followed by intraoperative irrigation and placement of subdural drainage. Yet, the role of intraoperative irrigation has not been established. If there is no difference in recurrence rates between intraoperative irrigation and no irrigation, CSDH surgery could be carried out faster and more safely by omitting the step of irrigation. The aim of this multicentre randomised controlled trial is to study whether no intraoperative irrigation and subdural drainage results in non-inferior outcome compared with intraoperative irrigation and subdural drainage following burr-hole craniostomy of CSDH. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a prospective, randomised, controlled, parallel group, non-inferiority multicentre trial comparing single burr-hole evacuation of CSDH with intraoperative irrigation and evacuation of CSDH without irrigation. In both groups, a passive subdural drain is used for 48 hours as a standard of treatment. The primary outcome is symptomatic CSDH recurrence requiring reoperation within 6 months. The predefined non-inferiority margin for the primary outcome is 7.5%. To achieve a 2.5% level of significance and 80% power, we will randomise 270 patients per group. Secondary outcomes include modified Rankin Scale, rate of mortality, duration of operation, length of hospital stay, adverse events and change in volume of CSDH. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study was approved by the institutional review board of the Helsinki and Uusimaa Hospital District (HUS/3035/2019 §238) and duly registered at ClinicalTrials.gov. We will disseminate the findings of this study through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04203550.

Large performance variation does not affect outcome in the Finnish cervical cancer screening programme.

OBJECTIVE: Cytology screening for prevention of cervical cancer can reduce incidence and mortality by more than 80% in settings with good organization and rigorous quality control. Audit studies are essential for reaching and maintaining a high quality of screening. The aim of this study was to evaluate variation in performance indicators by screening laboratory and assess the impact on the effectiveness of screening as indicated by cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 and above (CIN3+) rates after a negative screen. METHODS: Seven cytology screening laboratories operating during 1990-1999 with a total of 953 610 screening tests performed were included in the study. By linking screening and cancer register files, all cases of CIN3+ diagnosed in the screened population were identified. For 395 CIN3+ cases with a preceding negative screen and 787 controls, a re-evaluation of smears was undertaken to uncover false negative screening tests. Performance parameters and rates of CIN3+ after a negative screen were analysed for interlaboratory heterogeneity. RESULTS: The rates of follow-up recommendations and referrals varied by up to 3.6- (2.8-10.2%) and 4.0-fold (0.03-0.12%), respectively. CIN1, CIN2 and CIN3+ screen detection rates differed by up to 8.5- (0.02-0.17%), 5.4- (0.05-0.25%) and 3.3-fold (0.05-0.18%). False negative rates determined by re-evaluation showed up to 2.1-fold differences (29-62%). Rates of CIN3+ after a negative screen (0.023-0.048%) and as a proportion of total CIN3+ (15-31%) in the screened population were low and did not vary significantly. CONCLUSIONS: There were large variations in the sensitivity-specificity trade-off between laboratories, reflected in all performance indicators as well as in the test validity estimates of the re-evaluation phase, but not in screening effectiveness. Even though performance variations do not always have an impact on the effectiveness of screening, they lead to variations in cost, treatment and psychological burden, and should be addressed.

Population-based enrolment of adolescents in a long-term follow-up trial of human papillomavirus vaccine efficacy.

We evaluated a study setting for assessment of the long-term vaccine efficacy (VE) of human papillomavirus (HPV) virus-like-particle (VLP) vaccine against cervical carcinoma. A total of 22,412 16- to 17-year old adolescent women from seven cities in Finland were invited by letter to participate in a phase III study of a quadrivalent HPV (types 6, 11, 16, 18) VLP vaccine, between September 2002 and March 2003. A total of 30,947 18-year old women were invited to participate as unvaccinated controls. These women were asked about their willingness to participate in an HPV vaccination trial and to fill a health questionnaire. These three population-based cohorts of adolescent women, including women vaccinated with HPV vaccine or placebo vaccine and unvaccinated control women, are systematically followed over time. The study cohort database will be linked with the Finnish Cancer Registry using cervical carcinoma in situ (CIS) and invasive cervical carcinoma (ICC) as endpoints. Assuming that the cumulative incidence of CIS and ICC over 15 years is 0.45%, and that there is no loss to follow-up, and power of 80%, the determination of 70% total VE will require 3357 HPV vaccine recipients, 3357 placebo vaccine recipients, and 6714 unvaccinated controls. At the baseline, 2632 (12%) of the invited adolescents volunteered to the phase III vaccination trial, and 6790 (22%) responded to the questionnaire study. During a recruitment period of 10 months, 874 HPV vaccine recipients, 875 placebo recipients and 1919 unvaccinated controls were enrolled. Population-based enrollment of large cohorts of vaccinated and unvaccinated adolescents for passive registry-based follow-up with cervical carcinoma as the end-point is feasible and currently going on in Finland.

Joint Nordic prospective study on human herpesvirus 8 and multiple myeloma risk.

An association between human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) and multiple myeloma (MM) has been reported, though most studies have not confirmed such association. To follow-up on a previous prospective seroepidemiological study, where HHV8 tended to associate with MM risk, we linked five large serum banks in the Nordic countries with the Nordic cancer registries and 329 prospectively occurring cases of MM were identified, together with 1631 control subjects matched by age and gender. The HHV8 seroprevalences among cases and controls were similar (12 and 15%, respectively) and HHV8 seropositivity did not associate with the risk of MM, neither when considering positivity for lytic antibodies (relative risk (RR) = 0.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.5-1.1) nor for latent antibodies (RR = 0.6, 95% CI = 0.1-2.7). Similar risks were seen when analysis was restricted to case-control sets with at least 2 years lag before diagnosis (RR = 0.8, 95% CI = 0.5-1.2 and RR = 0.9, 95% CI = 0.1-4.2). In conclusion, the data indicate that HHV8 infection is not associated with MM.

Process indicators from ten centres in the Finnish breast cancer screening programme from 1991 to 2000.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the quality of the Finnish mammography programme by assessing process indicators from 10 screening centres using data from the first and subsequent screens. We compared these screen-specific indicators with European standards and results from countries with similar screening protocols. Ten Finnish centres invited approximately 1,000,000 women from 1991-2000. Women were mainly 50-64 years old. Mean compliance amongst this age group was 90% at the first and 93% at subsequent screens. The corresponding recall rates were 4.6% and 2.3%, respectively. The average breast cancer detection rates were 0.44% and 0.36%, respectively. The positive predictive values (PPVs) of mammography at the first and subsequent screens were 10% (range 7-20%) and 16% (range 12-31%), and the corresponding benign to malignant (B:M) biopsy ratios were 1:1 (range 0.5-1.8:1) and 0.4:1 (range 0.3-0.8:1). The PPV of mammography increased significantly during the study period, and the average process indicators fulfilled the criteria of the European community for the most part. However, the variation in PPVs was wide, as has been seen for other European mammography programmes, indicating meaningful differences in diagnostic criteria and potential adverse effects.

Joint effects of different human papillomaviruses and Chlamydia trachomatis infections on risk of squamous cell carcinoma of the cervix uteri.

This case-control study based in Nordic serum banks evaluated the joint effects of infections with genital human papillomavirus (HPV) types, and Chlamydia trachomatis in the aetiology of cervical squamous cell carcinoma. Through a linkage with the cancer registries, 144 cases were identified and 420 controls matched to them. Exposure to past infections was defined by the presence of specific IgG antibodies. The odds ratio (OR) for the second-order interaction of HPV16, HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis was small (1.0) compared to the expected multiplicative OR, 57, and the additive OR, 11. The interactions were not materially different among HPV16 DNA-positive squamous cell carcinomas. When HPV16 was replaced with HPV18/33 in the analysis of second-order interactions with HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis, there was no evidence of interaction, the joint effect being close to the expected additive OR. Possible explanations for the observed antagonism include misclassification, selection bias or a true biological phenomenon with HPV6/11 and C. trachomatis exposures antagonizing the carcinogenic effects of HPV16.

A prospective study of the relationship between prediagnostic human papillomavirus seropositivity and HPV DNA in subsequent cervical carcinomas.

Several prospective studies with invasive carcinoma as endpoint have supported Human Papillomavirus as a cause of cervical carcinoma. However, the largest study used seroepidemiology and did not analyse presence of Human Papillomavirus DNA in the subsequent tumour. Linkage of serum bank registries and cancer registries had identified 196 women with a registered cervical carcinoma after donation of a serum sample. For the present study, biopsies for 127 cases could be located, verified to contain invasive carcinoma and be amplified by PCR. Three control women who had remained alive and without cervical carcinoma during an equal length of follow-up had been matched to each of the case women and tested for HPV antibodies. Presence of Human Papillomavirus DNA in the tumours was analysed by general primer and type specific PCR. HPV16-seropositive women had a relative risk of 4.4 (95% CI: 2.2-8.8) to develop cervical carcinoma carrying HPV16 DNA. By contrast, there was no excess risk for Human Papillomavirus 16-seropositive women to develop cervical carcinoma devoid of HPV16 DNA. Prediagnostic HPV16 seropositivity was strongly correlated with later HPV16 DNA positivity of the tumour (P<0.001) and prediagnostic HPV18 seropositivity correlated with HPV18 DNA in the tumour (P<0.03). The link between prediagnostic seropositivity and type of viral DNA in the cancer implies that the carcinogenic effect of infection with these viruses is dependent on persistent presence of type-specific viral DNA.

Human papillomavirus infection as a risk factor for anal and perianal skin cancer in a prospective study.

Human papillomavirus has emerged as the leading infectious cause of cervical and other anogenital cancers. We have studied the relation between human papillomavirus infection and the subsequent risk of anal and perianal skin cancer. A case-cohort study within two large Nordic serum banks to which about 760 000 individuals had donated serum samples was performed. Subjects who developed anal and perianal skin cancer during follow up (median time of 10 years) were identified by registry linkage with the nationwide cancer registries in Finland and Norway. Twenty-eight cases and 1500 controls were analysed for the presence of IgG antibodies to HPV 16, 18, 33 or 73, and odds ratios of developing anal and perianal skin cancer were calculated. There was an increased risk of developing anal and perianal skin cancer among subjects seropositive for HPV 16 (OR=3.0; 95%CI=1.1-8.2) and HPV 18 (OR=4.4; 95%CI=1.1-17). The highest risks were seen for HPV 16 seropositive patients above the age of 45 years at serum sampling and for patients with a lag time of less than 10 years. This study provides prospective epidemiological evidence of an association between infection with HPV 16 and 18 and anal and perianal skin cancer.

Joint effect of HPV16 with Chlamydia trachomatis and smoking on risk of cervical cancer: antagonism or misclassification (Nordic countries).

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the joint effects of infections with human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) and Chlamydia trachomatis and smoking on the risk of cervical cancer. To study whether the joint effects can be accounted for by misclassification in the HPV serology. METHODS: A nested case-control study with incidence density sampling was conducted in three cohorts of 530,000 women, who donated serum samples to three Nordic serum banks in 1973-1994. The main outcome measure is the odds ratio (OR) of incidence rates of invasive cervical squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) among those seropositive for HPV16 and/or C. trachomatis and/or with increased levels of cotinine in serum compared to those negative for all the three exposures. RESULTS: Two hundred eight women with SCC and 624 matched controls were identified during a mean follow-up of 5 years through linkage to the national cancer registries. Exposure to past infections and smoking was defined by presence of specific IgG antibodies to HPV16 and C. trachomatis and increased levels of serum cotinine. Observed ORs were compared to OR = 20 for HPV16 and accounting the differences for by misclassification bias. OR = 20 was elected as a gold standard on the basis of other studies with PCR-based analyses and a follow-up design. Each of the three exposures was associated with an increased risk of SCC (OR = 5.4 for HPV16, 3.4 for C. trachomatis and 1.8 for cotinine). The interaction was antagonistic (observed OR = 2.5 among those positive for all three exposures as compared to OR = 33 expected on the basis of multiplicative single effects (p = 0.047)). The antagonism could not totally be accounted for by any credible combination of sensitivity and specificity of HPV16 serology. CONCLUSION: HPV16, C. trachomatis, and smoking are likely to be risk factors of SCC with strong antagonistic joint effect. Non-differential misclassification in serology for HPV16 could be ruled out (but only some types of differential) as an alternative explanation for the observed antagonism.

Prospects for phase III-IV HPV vaccination trials in the Nordic countries and in Estonia.

BACKGROUND: oncogenic, i.e. high risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) types are the major cause of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). Putatively licensable vaccines against the hrHPVs have been developed and are approaching clinical phase III trials that use persistent HPV infection as end point. Direct extension of the phase III trials towards long-term end points (ICC and its immediate precursors: carcinoma in situ and severe dysplasia, i.e. cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, CINIII) is important, to avoid early contamination of the target population by opportunistic use of licensed HPV vaccines. Country-wide registration on population and health events in a stable population of 25 million make Estonia and the Nordic countries a unique venue for long-term evaluation of cervical cancer control measures. Mass-screening programmes exist in all Nordic countries, but not in Estonia. AIM: design of phase III-IV trials for evaluation of protection against ICC and CINIII by preventive HPV vaccines based on cancer registry follow-up. RESULTS: in the Nordic countries, population based randomisation of all 15-year-old women to the vaccination (vaccine and placebo) and reference cohorts entering conventional Pap-smear screening after a clinical phase III trial would assure comparability of the cohorts. Enrollment of 10094 vaccinees +10094 placebo vaccinees +30282 other hrHPV negative women without vaccination at the age of 16 would give 80% power for the demonstration of 70% vaccine efficacy (VE) against ICC in 20 years by cancer registry follow-up. On the other hand, vaccination of 8303 Estonian hrHPV negative women among the entire 15-year-old female birth cohort (about 10000 women) with an already licensed HPV vaccine would enable demonstration of 70% VE against ICC by 20 years of registry follow-up of these and comparable 16606 women identified among the 16-19-year-old birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: evaluation of the protective effect of an HPV vaccine against ICC is possible both in countries with or without mass-screening. The effects of vaccination on spread of different HPVs in the population would need to be monitored, especially in Estonia. Ethical aspects, cost-benefit evaluation and comparisons with other new means of cervical cancer control warrant further investigation.

Attack rates of human papillomavirus type 16 and cervical neoplasia in primiparous women and field trial designs for HPV16 vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Identification of human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16) as the major risk factor for cervical neoplasia, and mass production of DNA free HPV capsids have paved the way to preventive vaccination trials. Design of such trials requires reliable attack rate data. OBJECTIVE: Determination of (1) HPV16 and (2) cervical neoplasia attack rates in primiparous women. Estimation of actuarial sample sizes for HPV16 vaccination phase IV trials. DESIGN: A longitudinal cohort study. METHODS: Population based Finnish Maternity Cohort (FMC) and Finnish Cancer Registry (FCR) were linked for the identification of two cohorts of primiparous women: (1) a random subsample of the FMC: 1656 women with two pregnancies between 1983-9 or 1990-6 and living in the Helsinki metropolitan area, and (2) all 72,791 primiparous women living in the same area during 1983-94. Attack rate for persistent HPV16 infection (1) was estimated in 1279 seronegative women by proportion of seroconversions between the first and the second pregnancy. Comparable 10 year cumulative incidence rate (CR) of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III and cervical cancer (CIN III+) (2) was estimated based on cases registered at the FCR during 1991-4. RESULTS: The HPV16 attack rates were 13.8% (< 18 years), 7.0% (18-19 years), 2.3% (21 years), 2.4% (23 years), and 4.5% (< 25 years). Number of vaccinees required for a 5 year efficacy trial with persistent HPV16 infection as the end point ranged between 1000 and 3900, assuming 80% power, 90%-70% vaccine efficacy (VE), and misclassification. The CRs of CIN III+ were 0.33% (< 18 years), 0.44% (18-19 years), 0.21% (20-24 years), and 0.28% (< 25 years). Number of vaccinees required for a 10 year efficacy trial with HPV16 positive CIN III+ as the end point was 15,000 assuming 80% power, 90% VE, and 75% aetiological fraction of CIN III+ for HPV16. CONCLUSIONS: The attack rates of HPV16 and CIN III+ identify primiparous women under 25 years of age among target populations for postnatal HPV vaccination at phase II/III trials.

Impact of screening examinations on survival in familial adenomatous polyposis.

BACKGROUND: Prophylactic family screening and surgery has improved the outcome of patients with familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) largely preventing deaths due to colorectal cancer. The present study compared the mortality rates and causes of death of FAP patients diagnosed by symptoms (probands) or by family screening (call-up). METHODS: The study comprised all 236 FAP patients registered in the Finnish Polyposis Registry until the end of June 1998. There were 116 probands and 120 call-up patients with a median age of 36.8 and 22.8 at diagnosis and median follow-up times of 6.3 and 9.9 years, respectively. Cumulative crude and relative survival estimates were calculated for each group and the causes of death were determined. RESULTS: The life expectancy was significantly better in the call-up group than in the probands after colectomy (P < 0.001). The survival rates of the call-up group equaled those expected for a comparable group in the general population up to 18 years after colectomy. The main cause of death was colorectal cancer accounting for 54 out of 68 deaths: four in the call-up group (all rectal stump cancer) and 50 in probands. Upper GI-tract cancer caused four deaths (periampullary cancer two, stomach cancer two) and two deaths were due to postoperative pulmonary embolism. CONCLUSION: The survival of FAP patients is significantly improved by prophylactic screening and surgery. Further improvement may be possible by using restorative proctocolectomy instead of colectomy and ileorectal anastomosis and by regular upper GI-tract endoscopic surveillance.

Chlamydia trachomatis infection as a risk factor for invasive cervical cancer.

Cervical carcinoma is a sexually transmitted disease most strongly linked with human-papillomavirus (HPV) infection. We conducted a prospective sero-epidemiologic study to evaluate the role of Chlamydia trachomatis infection in the development of cervical carcinoma, with invasive cancer as an end point. A nested case-control study within a cohort of 530000 Nordic women was performed. Linking data files of 3 Nordic serum banks and the cancer registries of Finland, Norway and Sweden identified 182 women with invasive cervical carcinoma diagnosed during a mean follow-up of 5 years after serum sampling. The serum samples of the cases and matched cancer-free controls were analyzed for IgG antibodies to C. trachomatis, C. pneumoniae (a control microbe) and HPV types 16, 18 and 33, as well as for serum cotinine (an indicator of tobacco smoking). Serum antibodies to C. trachomatis were associated with an increased risk for cervical squamous-cell carcinoma (HPV- and smoking-adjusted OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.3-3.5). The association remained also after adjustment for smoking both in HPV16-seronegative and -seropositive cases (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.8-5.1; OR, 2.3, 95% CI, 0. 8-7.0 respectively). No such association was found for C. pneumoniae. Our prospective study provides sero-epidemiologic evidence that infection with C. trachomatis confers an increased risk for subsequent development of invasive squamous-cell carcinoma of the uterine cervix.

Low levels of serum vitamins A and E in blood and subsequent risk for cervical cancer: interaction with HPV seropositivity.

Nutritional factors have been associated with risk of cervical cancer, but it is unclear whether the associations are of etiological significance or secondary to human papillomavirus (HPV) exposure. A delineation of this question requires a prospective study with invasive cancer as the end point. We conducted a nested case-control study in Finland and Sweden within a joint cohort of 405,000 women followed up for, on average, 4 years. Blood samples from 38 prospective cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed between 1985 and 1994 and 116 controls matched for age, country, and sample storage time were available for the study. Levels of retinol or unoxidized alpha-tocopherol in the blood were not risk factors for cervical cancer. However, joint-effect analysis of low levels of retinol disclosed statistically significant (p = 0.023) synergistic (more than multiplicative) interaction with HPV (HPV16, HPV18, or HPV33) seropositivity (observed relative risk = 2.6, 95% confidence interval = 0.7-8.8, expected relative risk = 0.3). Retinol might act as an effect modifier of the HPV-associated risk for cervical cancer; exposed women may require adequate levels for immunologic surveillance of HPV.

Cancer patient survival--patterns, comparisons, trends--a population-based Cancer Registry study in Finland.

The effects of primary site, sex, age, stage and histological type on cancer patient survival were analysed on the basis of the population-based material of the Finnish Cancer Registry from 1985 to 1994. In addition, trends in survival were constructed for the period 1955-1994. Detailed site-specific data are published as Supplement 12 to Vol. 38 of Acta Oncologica. Within a given site, the survival differences by gender were not large. However, because of different site distributions, the average prognosis for female patients, all sites taken together, was superior to that of males: the 5-year relative survival rates (RSR) were 58% and 43%, respectively. In general, older patients had a poorer outcome compared with younger patients (partly because of different stage and histology distributions). Stage was a strong determinant of patient survival. In some cancers with a poor average prognosis the 5-year RSR for localized tumours was reasonable, e.g. 61% for stomach cancer, males, 34% for gallbladder cancer, females, and 29% for lung cancer, males. Most of the survival rates clearly increased over time. In addition to improvements in cancer treatment, changes over time in several other factors affect the trends, such as changes in the stage distribution (early diagnosis as a result of health education, improved diagnostic methods, screening, etc.) and in the composition of the patient material because of changing definitions of cancer (e.g. papilloma versus papillary carcinoma of the bladder, occult carcinoma of the thyroid, and early prostate cancer). The large Cancer Registry material (466,000 patients) enabled accurate estimates of the survival rates of cancer patients in Finland. These rates reflect the effectiveness of the healthcare system as a whole and are useful for planning and evaluation purposes. However, the estimated survival rates are based on grouped data, and cannot be directly applied for predicting the prognoses of individual patients, although they can be used as guidelines.

Survival of cancer patients in Finland 1955-1994.

INTRODUCTION: The study of survival of cancer patients is essential for monitoring the effectiveness of cancer control. The previous monograph describing cancer patient survival in Finland was published by the Finnish Cancer Registry in 1981 and covered patients diagnosed in 1953-1974. This new supplement assesses cancer patient survival up to the year 1995. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The study includes over 560000 tumours registered at the Finnish Cancer Registry with a date of diagnosis between 1955 and 1994. Patients were followed up to the end of 1995. Trends in relative survival rates are studied over four 10-year diagnostic periods from 1955 to 1994. In addition, detailed results are presented for patients diagnosed during 1985-1994, including relative survival rates tabulated by stage, sex, and age. Additional sections describe differences in cancer patient survival according to social class and region of residence and a comparison of cancer patient survival in Finland to other European countries. RESULTS: Patient survival improved over time for almost all anatomical sites. The main exception is in cancer of the cervix uteri, where patient survival has decreased slightly from 1965-1974 to 1985-1994 due to the selective prevention of less aggressive tumours through cytologic screening. Very few differences in patient survival are observed between males and females. A substantial improvement in survival can be seen for childhood cancers. CONCLUSION: The increasing survival rates reflect improvements that have taken place in various areas of cancer control, from health education and early diagnosis to treatment and aftercare. This study provides valuable reference information for both clinicians and health administrators, as well as a baseline for more detailed studies of patient survival for individual anatomical sites.

No excess risk of cervical carcinoma among women seropositive for both HPV16 and HPV6/11.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16 and 18 are the major risk factors for cervical carcinoma, whereas HPV types 6 and 11 cause benign genital lesions. We wanted to study the joint effect of simultaneous infections with the oncogenic and non-oncogenic HPV types on risk of subsequent development of cervical carcinoma. A cohort of 530,000 women who had donated blood samples to Nordic serum banks between 1973 and 1994 was followed up by linkage to national cancer registries. We identified 182 prospective cases with invasive cervical carcinoma and selected 538 matched controls at random. HPV 6, 11, 16, 18 and 33 seropositivity was used as a marker for the different HPV infections, and seropositivity for Chlamydia trachomatis and cotinine were used as markers for risk-taking sexual behavior and smoking respectively. The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of cervical squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC) was 2.2 for HPV6/11 among HPV16 seronegatives and 5.5 for HPV16 among HPV6/11 seronegatives. Assuming multiplicative joint effect, the expected OR for seropositivity to both HPV6/11 and HPV16 would have been 12, but the observed OR was 1.0. The antagonistic interaction was statistically significant (p = 0.001) and present also under deterministic considerations of possible misclassification bias. Antagonistic interactions were also detected for combinations of HPV16 and HPV18 and of HPV16 and HPV33. The results are in line with the concept that HPV-specific immunity protects against SCC and support primary prevention of SCC by vaccination against the HPVs.

A prospective, seroepidemiological study of the role of human papillomavirus in esophageal cancer in Norway.

Infection with the human papillomavirus (HPV), notably HPV type 16, has been associated with esophageal cancer in seroepidemiological studies. To evaluate the consistency of the association, we performed a nested case-control study of HPV seropositivity and risk of esophageal cancer within a prospectively followed cohort of 300,000 Norwegian men and women who had donated blood samples to a serum bank. The data file of the serum bank was linked with the nationwide Cancer Registry of Norway to identify esophageal cancers diagnosed after donation of the serum sample. Fifty-seven cases and 171 matched controls were analyzed for antibodies to specific microorganisms, and odds ratios for developing esophageal cancer were calculated. There was an increased risk of developing esophageal cancer among HPV 16-seropositive subjects (odds ratio = 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-71) but not among Chlamydia trachomatis-seropositive subjects. Adjustment for the presence of serum cotinine, a marker of smoking habits, did not affect the estimates substantially. The seroepidemiological association between HPV 16 and esophageal cancer seems to be consistent in different countries.

Prospective seroepidemiological study of role of human papillomavirus in non-cervical anogenital cancers.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between infection with the major oncogenic types of human papillomavirus and the risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in a cohort followed up prospectively. DESIGN: Data from two large serum banks to which about 700,000 people had donated serum samples were followed up for a mean of 8 years. People who developed non-cervical anogenital cancers during follow up were identified by registry linkage with the nationwide cancer registries in Finland and Norway. Within this cohort a nested case-control study was conducted based on the serological diagnosis of infection with human papillomavirus types 16, 18, and 33. SUBJECTS: 81 cases and 240 controls matched for sex, age, and storage time of serum samples. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Odds ratios of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers in presence of IgG antibodies to specific micro-organisms. RESULTS: Subjects seropositive for human papillomavirus type 16 had an increased risk of developing non-cervical anogenital cancers (odds ratio 3.1 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 6.9)). Subjects seropositive for type 33 also had an increased risk (odds ratio 2.8 (1.0 to 8.3)) but not significantly after adjustment for infection with type 16. Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 16 was associated with an increased risk of developing vulvar and vaginal cancers (odds ratio 4.5 (1.1 to 22)) and a strongly increased risk of developing preinvasive vulvar and vaginal lesions (odds ratio infinity (3.8 to infinity)). Seropositivity for human papillomavirus type 18 increased the risk of developing preinvasive lesions (odds ratio 12 (1.2 to 590)). High, but non-significant odds ratios for types 16 and 33 were seen for penile cancers. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides prospective seroepidemiological evidence that infection with human papillomavirus type 16 confers an increased risk of developing non-cervical genital cancers, particularly vulvar and vaginal cancers.