On the climate benefit of a coal-to-gas shift in Germany's electric power sector.

Methane emissions along the natural gas supply chain are critical for the climate benefit achievable by fuel switching from coal to natural gas in the electric power sector. For Germany, one of the world's largest primary energy consumers, with a coal and natural gas share in the power sector of 35% and 13%, respectively, we conducted fleet-conversion modelling for reference year 2018, taking domestic and export country specific greenhouse gas (GHG)-emissions in the natural gas and coal supply chains into account. Methane leakage rates below 4.9% (GWP20; immediate 4.1%) in the natural gas supply chain lead to overall reduction of CO2-equivalent GHG-emissions by fuel switching. Supply chain methane emissions vary significantly for the import countries Russia, Norway and The Netherlands, yet for Germany's combined natural gas mix lie with << 1% far below specific break-even leakage rates. Supply chain emission scenarios demonstrate that a complete shift to natural gas would emit 30-55% (GWP20 and GWP100, respectively) less CO2-equivalent GHG than from the coal mix. However, further abating methane emissions in the petroleum sector should remain a prime effort, when considering natural gas as bridge fuel on the path to achieve the Paris climate goals.

Rapid Quaternary subsidence in the northwestern German North Sea.

3D and 2D seismic data reveal the base-reflection of the Quaternary in the northwestern German North Sea locally at depths of more than 1000 m. This indicates extremely fast subsidence, with a rate of up to 480 m/Ma during the Quaternary, resulting in a NNW-SSE oriented sedimentary depocentre. Distinct iceberg scour marks, identified in 3D seismic data are used to calibrate quantitative subsidence analysis and to document shallow marine conditions during the Quaternary interglacials. Previously, a number of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the Quaternary subsidence. Here we show that compaction and load-induced subsidence alone explain about 75% of the observed Quaternary subsidence. However, a certain portion of the subsidence needs additional processes to be invoked. The extensive seismic dataset interpreted here makes it possible to exclude a phase of renewed tectonic activity as the origin of the subsidence anomaly. From the orientation and extent of the depocentre, lithosphere buckling and subsidence due to salt movement are considered unlikely. Possibly a post-glacial collapse after the retreat of glaciers in the North Sea Basin, local lower crustal flow, or dynamic topography or a combination of these processes contributed to the residual subsidence.