Evidence for Anchoring Bias During Physician Decision-Making.

Introduction: Cognitive biases are hypothesized to influence physician decision-making, but large-scale evidence consistent with their influence is limited. One such bias is anchoring bias, or the focus on a single-often initial-piece of information when making clinical decisions without sufficiently adjusting to later information. Objective: To examine whether physicians were less likely to test patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) presenting to the emergency department (ED) with shortness of breath (SOB) for pulmonary embolism (PE) when the patient visit reason section, documented in triage before physicians see the patient, mentioned CHF. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cross-sectional study of 2011 to 2018 national Veterans Affairs data, patients with CHF presenting with SOB in Veterans Affairs EDs were included in the analysis. Analyses were performed from July 2019 to January 2023. Exposure: The patient visit reason section, documented in triage before physicians see the patient, mentions CHF. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were testing for PE (D-dimer, computed tomography scan of the chest with contrast, ventilation/perfusion scan, lower-extremity ultrasonography), time to PE testing (among those tested for PE), B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) testing, acute PE diagnosed in the ED, and acute PE ultimately diagnosed (within 30 days of ED visit). Results: The present sample included 108 019 patients (mean [SD] age, 71.9 [10.8] years; 2.5% female) with CHF presenting with SOB, 4.1% of whom had mention of CHF in the patient visit reason section of the triage documentation. Overall, 13.2% of patients received PE testing, on average within 76 minutes, 71.4% received BNP testing, 0.23% were diagnosed with acute PE in the ED, and 1.1% were ultimately diagnosed with acute PE. In adjusted analyses, mention of CHF was associated with a 4.6 percentage point (pp) reduction (95% CI, -5.7 to -3.5 pp) in PE testing, 15.5 more minutes (95% CI, 5.7-25.3 minutes) to PE testing, and 6.9 pp (95% CI, 4.3-9.4 pp) more BNP testing. Mention of CHF was associated with a 0.15 pp lower (95% CI, -0.23 to -0.08 pp) likelihood of PE diagnosis in the ED, although no significant association between the mention of CHF and ultimately diagnosed PE was observed (0.06 pp difference; 95% CI, -0.23 to 0.36 pp). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study among patients with CHF presenting with SOB, physicians were less likely to test for PE when the patient visit reason that was documented before they saw the patient mentioned CHF. Physicians may anchor on such initial information in decision-making, which in this case was associated with delayed workup and diagnosis of PE.

Changes in Prescription Drug and Health Care Use Over 9 Years After the Large Drug Price Increase for Colchicine.

Importance: Prescription drug prices are a leading concern among patients and policy makers. There have been large and sharp price increases for some drugs, but the long-term implications of large drug price increases remain poorly understood. Objective: To examine the association of the large 2010 price increase in colchicine, a common treatment for gout, with long-term changes in colchicine use, substitution with other drugs, and health care use. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study examined MarketScan data from a longitudinal cohort of patients with gout with employer-sponsored insurance from 2007 through 2019. Exposures: The US Food and Drug Administration's discontinuation of lower-priced versions of colchicine from the market in 2010. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean price of colchicine; use of colchicine, allopurinol, and oral corticosteroids; and emergency department (ED) and rheumatology visits for gout in year 1 and over the first decade of the policy (through 2019) were calculated. Data were analyzed between November 16, 2021, and January 17, 2023. Results: A total of 2 723 327 patient-year observations were examined from 2007 through 2019 (mean [SD] age of patients, 57.0 [13.8] years; 20.9% documented as female; 79.1% documented as male). The mean price per prescription of colchicine increased sharply from $11.25 (95% CI, $11.23-$11.28) in 2009 to $190.49 (95% CI, $190.07-$190.91) in 2011, a 15.9-fold increase, with the mean out-of-pocket price increasing 4.4-fold from $7.37 (95% CI, $7.37-$7.38) to $39.49 (95% CI, $39.42-$39.56). At the same time, colchicine use declined from 35.0 (95% CI, 34.6-35.5) to 27.3 (95% CI, 26.9-27.6) pills per patient in year 1 and to 22.6 (95% CI, 22.2-23.0) pills per patient in 2019. Adjusted analyses showed a 16.7% reduction in year 1 and a 27.0% reduction over the decade (P < .001). Meanwhile, adjusted allopurinol use rose by 7.8 (95% CI, 6.9-8.7) pills per patient in year 1, a 7.6% increase from baseline, and by 33.1 (95% CI, 32.6-33.7) pills per patient through 2019, a 32.0% increase from baseline over the decade (P < .001). Moreover, adjusted oral corticosteroid use exhibited no significant change in the first year, then increased by 1.5 (95% CI, 1.3-1.7) pills per patient through 2019, an 8.3% increase from baseline over the decade. Adjusted ED visits for gout rose by 0.02 (95% CI, 0.02-0.03) per patient in year 1, a 21.5% increase, and by 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.05) per patient through 2019, a 39.8% increase over the decade (P < .001). Adjusted rheumatology visits for gout increased by 0.02 (95% CI, 0.02-0.03) per patient through 2019, a 10.5% increase over the decade (P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study among individuals with gout, the large increase in colchicine prices in 2010 was associated with an immediate decrease in colchicine use that persisted over approximately a decade. Substitution with allopurinol and oral corticosteroids was also evident. Increased ED and rheumatology visits for gout over the same period suggest poorer disease control.

Racial and Ethnic Differences in Barriers Faced by Medical College Admission Test Examinees and Their Association With Medical School Application and Matriculation.

Importance: There has been disappointing progress in enrollment of medical students from racial and ethnic groups underrepresented in medicine, including American Indian or Alaska Native, Black, and Hispanic students. Barriers that may influence students interested in medicine are understudied. Objective: To examine racial and ethnic differences in barriers faced by students taking the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT). Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used survey data (surveys administered between January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2018) from MCAT examinees linked with application and matriculation data from the Association of American Medical Colleges. Data analyses were performed from November 1, 2021, to January 31, 2023. Main Variables and Outcomes: Main outcomes were medical school application and matriculation. Key independent variables reflected parental educational level, financial and educational barriers, extracurricular opportunities, and interpersonal discrimination. Results: The sample included 81 755 MCAT examinees (0.3% American Indian or Alaska Native, 21.3% Asian, 10.1% Black, 8.0% Hispanic, and 60.4% White; 56.9% female). There were racial and ethnic differences in reported barriers. For example, after adjustment for demographic characteristics and examination year, 39.0% (95% CI, 32.3%-45.8%) of American Indian or Alaska Native examinees, 35.1% (95% CI, 34.0%-36.2%) of Black examinees, and 46.6% (95% CI, 45.4%-47.9%) of Hispanic examinees reported having no parent with a college degree compared with 20.4% (95% CI, 20.0%-20.8%) of White examinees. After adjustment for demographic characteristics and examination year, Black examinees (77.8%; 95% CI, 76.9%-78.7%) and Hispanic examinees (71.3%; 95% CI, 70.2%-72.4%) were less likely than White examinees (80.2%; 95% CI, 79.8%-80.5%) to apply to medical school. Black examinees (40.6%; 95% CI, 39.5%-41.7%) and Hispanic examinees (40.2%; 95% CI, 39.0%-41.4%) were also less likely than White examinees (45.0%; 95% CI, 44.6%-45.5%) to matriculate at medical school. Examined barriers were associated with a lower likelihood of medical school application and matriculation (eg, examinees having no parent with a college degree had lower odds of applying [odds ratio, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.61-0.69] and matriculating [odds ratio, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.59-0.66]). Black-White and Hispanic-White disparities in application and matriculation were largely accounted for by differences in these barriers. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study of MCAT examinees, American Indian or Alaska Native, Black, and Hispanic students reported lower parental educational levels, greater educational and financial barriers, and greater discouragement from prehealth advisers than White students. These barriers may deter groups underrepresented in medicine from applying to and matriculating at medical school.

Inequities in surgical outcomes by race and sex in the United States: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess inequities in mortality by race and sex for eight common surgical procedures (elective and non-elective) across specialties in the United States. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: US, 2016-18. PARTICIPANTS: 1 868 036 Black and White Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-99 years undergoing one of eight common surgeries: repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm, appendectomy, cholecystectomy, colectomy, coronary artery bypass surgery, hip replacement, knee replacement, and lung resection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome measure was 30 day mortality, defined as death during hospital admission or within 30 days of the surgical procedure. RESULTS: Postoperative mortality overall was higher in Black men (1698 deaths, adjusted mortality rate 3.05%, 95% confidence interval 2.85% to 3.24%) compared with White men (21 833 deaths, 2.69%, 2.65% to 2.73%), White women (21 847 deaths, 2.38%, 2.35% to 2.41%), and Black women (1631 deaths, 2.18%, 2.04% to 2.31%), after adjusting for potential confounders. A similar pattern was found for elective surgeries, with Black men showing a higher adjusted mortality (393 deaths, 1.30%, 1.14% to 1.46%) compared with White men (5650 deaths, 0.85%, 0.83% to 0.88%), White women (4615 deaths, 0.82%, 0.80% to 0.84%), and Black women (359 deaths, 0.79%, 0.70% to 0.88%). This 0.45 percentage point difference implies that mortality after elective procedures was 50% higher in Black men compared with White men. For non-elective surgeries, however, mortality did not differ between Black men and White men (1305 deaths, 6.69%, 6.26% to 7.11%; and 16 183 deaths, 7.03%, 6.92% to 7.14%, respectively), although mortality was lower for White women and Black women (17 232 deaths, 6.12%, 6.02% to 6.21%; and 1272 deaths, 5.29%, 4.93% to 5.64%, respectively). These differences in mortality appeared within seven days after surgery and persisted for up to 60 days after surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative mortality overall was higher among Black men compared with White men, White women, and Black women. These findings highlight the need to understand better the unique challenges Black men who require surgery face.

Affirmative Action Bans and Enrollment of Students From Underrepresented Racial and Ethnic Groups in U.S. Public Medical Schools.

BACKGROUND: The percentage of U.S. physicians who identify as being from an underrepresented racial or ethnic group remains low relative to their proportion in the U.S. population. How this percentage may have been affected by state bans on affirmative action in public postsecondary institutions has received relatively little attention. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between state affirmative action bans and percentage of enrollment in U.S. public medical schools from underrepresented racial and ethnic groups. DESIGN: Event study comparing public medical schools in states that implemented affirmative action bans with those in states without bans. SETTING: U.S. public medical schools. PARTICIPANTS: 21 public medical schools in 8 states with affirmative action bans matched to 32 public medical schools in 24 states without bans from 1985 to 2019. MEASUREMENTS: Percentage of total enrollment from racial and ethnic groups underrepresented in medicine (Black, Hispanic, American Indian or Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander). RESULTS: The percentage of enrollment from underrepresented racial and ethnic groups was 14.8% in U.S. public medical schools in the year before ban implementation in states with bans. The adjusted percentage of underrepresented students in ban schools decreased by 4.8 percentage points (95% CI, -6.3 to -3.2 percentage points) 5 years after ban implementation relative to the year before implementation, whereas the adjusted percentage in control schools increased by 0.7 percentage point (CI, -0.1 to 1.6 percentage points), for a relative difference, or difference-in-differences estimate, of -5.5 percentage points (CI, -7.1 to -3.9 percentage points). LIMITATION: Inability to account for the effect of these bans on undergraduate enrollment. CONCLUSION: State affirmative action bans were associated with significant reductions in the percentage of students in U.S. public medical schools from underrepresented racial and ethnic groups. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

How physicians evaluate patients with dementia who present with shortness of breath.

BACKGROUND: Whether the presence of dementia in patients makes it difficult for physicians to assess the risk such patients might have for serious conditions such as pulmonary embolism (PE) is unknown. Our objective was to examine the differential association of four clinical factors (deep venous thrombosis (DVT)/PE, malignancy, recent surgery, and tachycardia) with PE testing for patients with dementia compared to patients without dementia. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of emergency department (ED) visits to 104 Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals from 2011 to 2018 by patients aged 60 years and over presenting with shortness of breath (SOB). Our outcomes were PE testing (CT scan and/or D-dimer) and subsequently diagnosed acute PE. RESULTS: The sample included 593,001 patient visits for SOB across 7124 ED physicians; 5.6% of the sample had dementia, and 10.6% received PE testing. Three of the four clinical factors examined had a lower association with PE testing for patients with dementia. For example, after taking into account that at baseline, physicians were 0.9 percentage points less likely to test patients with dementia than patients without dementia for PE, physicians were an additional 2.6 percentage points less likely to test patients with dementia who had tachycardia than patients without dementia who had tachycardia. We failed to find evidence that any clinical factor examined had a differentially lower association with a subsequently diagnosed acute PE for patients with dementia. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical factors known to be predictive of PE risk had a lower association with PE testing for patients with dementia compared to patients without dementia. These results may be consistent with physicians missing these clinical factors more often when evaluating patients with dementia, but also with physicians recognizing such factors but not using them in the decision-making process. Further understanding how physicians evaluate patients with dementia presenting with common acute symptoms may help improve the care delivered to such patients.

The Influence of the Availability Heuristic on Physicians in the Emergency Department.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Heuristics, or rules of thumb, are hypothesized to influence the care physicians deliver. One such heuristic is the availability heuristic, under which assessments of an event's likelihood are affected by how easily the event comes to mind. We examined whether the availability heuristic influences physician testing in a common, high-risk clinical scenario: assessing patients with shortness of breath for the risk of pulmonary embolism. METHODS: We performed an event study from 2011 to 2018 of emergency physicians caring for patients presenting with shortness of breath to 104 Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Our measures were physician rates of pulmonary embolism testing (D-dimer and/or computed tomography scan) for subsequent patients after having a patient visit with a pulmonary embolism discharge diagnosis, hypothesizing that physician rates of pulmonary embolism testing would increase after having a recent patient visit with a pulmonary embolism diagnosis due to the availability heuristic. RESULTS: The sample included 7,370 emergency physicians who had 416,720 patient visits for shortness of breath. The mean rate of pulmonary embolism testing was 9.0%. For physicians who had a recent patient visit with a pulmonary embolism diagnosis, their rate of pulmonary embolism testing for subsequent patients increased by 1.4 percentage points (95% confidence interval 0.42 to 2.34) in the 10 days after, which is approximately 15% relative to the mean rate of pulmonary embolism testing. We failed to find statistically significant changes in rates of pulmonary embolism testing in the subsequent 50 days following these first 10 days. CONCLUSION: After having a recent patient visit with a pulmonary embolism diagnosis, physicians increase their rates of pulmonary embolism testing for subsequent patients, but this increase does not persist. These results provide large-scale evidence that the availability heuristic may play a role in complex testing decisions.

Age, disability, and household composition of nurses and physicians who are not in the labor force.

While several areas in the United States have asked nurses and physicians who are not in the labor force to return to help with the COVID-19 pandemic, little is known about the characteristics of these clinicians that may present barriers to returning. We studied age, disability, and household composition of clinicians not in the workforce using the American Community Survey from 2014 to 2018, a nationally-representative survey of US households administered by the US Census. Overall, we found that, for nurses and physicians not in the labor force, over three-quarters were 55 and over and about 15 percent had a disability. For female nurses and physicians not in the labor force, over half of those ages 20-54 had a child under 15 at home and over half of those ages 65+ had another adult 65 and over at home. These characteristics may present challenges and risks to returning.

Association of Patient Race and Ethnicity With Differences in Opioid Prescribing by Primary Care Physicians for Older Adults With New Low Back Pain.

Importance: Substantial patient racial and ethnic differences in opioid prescribing have been documented, but how much of these differences were attributable to physicians prescribing opioids differently to patients of racial and ethnic minority groups is unknown, particularly during the first wave of the opioid epidemic when the dangers of opioid prescribing and use were not as well known. Objective: To examine associations of patient race and ethnicity with differences in opioid prescribing by the same primary care physician (PCP) for new low back pain episodes among older adults from 2007 to 2014. Design Setting and Participants: This cross-sectional study used Medicare data of PCP office visits by Medicare beneficiaries who were 66 years or older with new low back pain. Main Outcomes and Measures: Prescribing of any opioid in the first year of a new low back pain episode (days 1-365) and subsequent long-term use of an opioid (prescribed for ≥180 days in days 366-730). Results: Among the study population of 274 771 patients (mean [SD] age, 77.1 [7.2] years; 192 105 [69.9%] women) with new low back pain, 15 285 (6%) were Asian or Pacific Islander, 16 079 (6%) were Black, 21 289 (8%) were Hispanic, and 222 118 (81%) were White, cared for by 63 494 physicians. In adjusted analysis, on average, 11.5% of the White patients (95% CI, 11.4 to 11.6) received an opioid prescription in the first year of new low back pain. The same prescribing physician was 1.5 percentage points (PP; 95% CI, -2.2 PP to -0.8 PP) less likely to prescribe an opioid if the patient was Black, 2.7 PP (95% CI, -3.5 PP to -1.8 PP) less likely if the patient was Asian or Pacific Islander, and 1.0 PP (95% CI, -1.7 PP to -0.3 PP) less likely if the patient was Hispanic. The same physician was more likely to prescribe a prescription nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug to a patient of a racial or ethnic minority group. White patients with new low back pain were more likely to develop subsequent long-term opioid use than patients of racial and ethnic minority groups (eg, 1.8% for White patients vs 0.5% for Hispanic patients). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that from 2007 to 2014, primary care physicians prescribed opioids for new low back pain more often to White patients than to patients of racial and ethnic minority groups. These results suggest that there may have been unequal treatment of pain by physicians when less was known about the morbidity associated with opioid use.

Evaluation and Treatment Patterns of New Low Back Pain Episodes for Elderly Adults in the United States, 2011-2014.

INTRODUCTION: New low back pain (LBP) is a common outpatient complaint. Little is known about how care is delivered over the course of a year to patients who develop new LBP and whether such care patterns are guideline-concordant. METHODS: This retrospective analysis included Medicare claims of 162,238 opioid-naïve beneficiaries with new LBP from January 1, 2011, through December 31, 2014. Simple rates of modality use [computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging (advanced imaging), physical therapy (PT), opioid and nonopioid medications] and percentiles (5th percentile, 25th percentile, median, 75th percentile, and 95th percentile) were reported. RESULTS: Within the first year, 29.4% [95% confidence interval (CI), 29.1-29.8] of patients with ≥2 visits for new LBP received advanced imaging, and 48.4% (95% CI, 47.7-49.0) of these patients received advanced imaging within 6 weeks of the first visit; 17.3% (95% CI, 17.1-17.6) of patients with ≥2 visits received PT; 42.2% (95% CI, 41.8-42.5) of patients with ≥2 visits received non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), 16.9% (95% CI, 16.6-17.1) received a muscle relaxant, and 26.2% (95% CI, 25.9-26.6) received tramadol; 32.3% (95% CI, 31.9-32.6) of patients with ≥2 visits received opioids; 52.4% (95% CI, 51.7-53.0) of these patients had not received a prescription NSAID, and 82.2% (95% CI, 81.7-82.7) of these patients had not received PT. CONCLUSIONS: Many patients who develop new LBP receive guideline nonconcordant care such as early advanced imaging and opioids before other modalities like PT and prescription NSAIDs.