Livestock trade network: potential for disease transmission and implications for risk-based surveillance on the island of Mayotte.

The island of Mayotte is a department of France, an outermost region of the European Union located in the Indian Ocean between Madagascar and the coast of Eastern Africa. Due to its close connection to the African mainland and neighbouring islands, the island is under constant threat of introduction of infectious diseases of both human and animal origin. Here, using social network analysis and mathematical modelling, we assessed potential implications of livestock movements between communes in Mayotte for risk-based surveillance. Our analyses showed that communes in the central region of Mayotte acted as a hub in the livestock movement network. The majority of livestock movements occurred between communes in the central region and from communes in the central region to those in the outer region. Also, communes in the central region were more likely to be infected earlier than those in the outer region when the spread of an exotic infectious disease was simulated on the livestock movement network. The findings of this study, therefore, suggest that communes in the central region would play a major role in the spread of infectious diseases via livestock movements, which needs to be considered in the design of risk-based surveillance systems in Mayotte.

Drivers for Rift Valley fever emergence in Mayotte: A Bayesian modelling approach.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006-2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.

The Epidemiology of Rift Valley Fever in Mayotte: Insights and Perspectives from 11 Years of Data.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic arboviral disease that is a threat to human health, animal health and production, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa. RVF virus dynamics have been poorly studied due to data scarcity. On the island of Mayotte in the Indian Ocean, off the Southeastern African coast, RVF has been present since at least 2004. Several retrospective and prospective serological surveys in livestock have been conducted over eleven years (2004-15). These data are collated and presented here. Temporal patterns of seroprevalence were plotted against time, as well as age-stratified seroprevalence. Results suggest that RVF was already present in 2004-07. An epidemic occurred between 2008 and 2010, with IgG and IgM peak annual prevalences of 36% in 2008-09 (N = 142, n = 51, 95% CI [17-55]) and 41% (N = 96, n = 39, 95% CI [25-56]), respectively. The virus seems to be circulating at a low level since 2011, causing few new infections. In 2015, about 95% of the livestock population was susceptible (IgG annual prevalence was 6% (N = 584, n = 29, 95% CI [3-10])). Monthly rainfall varied a lot (2-540mm), whilst average temperature remained high with little variation (about 25-30°C). This large dataset collected on an insular territory for more than 10 years, suggesting a past epidemic and a current inter-epidemic period, represents a unique opportunity to study RVF dynamics. Further data collection and modelling work may be used to test different scenarios of animal imports and rainfall pattern that could explain the observed epidemiological pattern and estimate the likelihood of a potential re-emergence.

Fractal water quality fluctuations spanning the periodic table in an intensively farmed watershed.

Recently developed measurement technologies can monitor surface water quality almost continuously, creating high-frequency multiparameter time series and raising the question of how best to extract insights from such rich data sets. Here we use spectral analysis to characterize the variability of water quality at the AgrHys observatory (Western France) over time scales ranging from 20 min to 12 years. Three years of daily sampling at the intensively farmed Kervidy-Naizin watershed reveal universal 1/f scaling for all 36 solutes, yielding spectral slopes of 1.05 ± 0.11 (mean ± standard deviation). These 36 solute concentrations show varying degrees of annual cycling, suggesting different controls on watershed export processes. Twelve years of daily samples of SO4, NO3, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) show that 1/f scaling does not continue at frequencies below 1/year in those constituents, whereas a 12-year daily record of Cl shows a general 1/f trend down to the lowest measurable frequencies. Conversely, approximately 12 months of 20 min NO3 and DOC measurements show that at frequencies higher than 1/day, the spectra of these solutes steepen to slopes of roughly 3, and at time scales shorter than 2-3 h, the spectra flatten to slopes near zero, reflecting analytical noise. These results confirm and extend the recent discovery of universal fractal 1/f scaling in water quality at the relatively pristine Plynlimon watershed in Wales, further demonstrating the importance of advective-dispersive transport mixing in catchments. However, the steeper scaling at subdaily time scales suggests additional short-term damping of solute concentrations, potentially due to in-stream or riparian processes.

Mapping of critical source areas for diffuse fecal bacterial pollution in extensively grazed watersheds.

Microbial contamination of surface waters frequently occurs on permanent natural grasslands subject to extensive grazing. Management of these problems requires developing methods to identify critical source areas that are responsible of significant losses of fecal microorganisms. In this study, GIS analysis of watersheds was used to calculate the flow of fecal bacteria (Escherichia coli) to the outflow of a watershed by summing bacterial flows in runoff from pixels containing cowpats. Calculations were performed in two steps: (i) identification of pixels with bacteria and runoff by modeling the distribution of cowpats and variable sources of surface runoff, and (ii) parameterization by inverse analysis of deterministic and stochastic functions for bacterial emission from cowpats and for retention during their transmission to the watershed outflow. During bacterial transport in water flow, bacterial retention on the soil surface has a large influence. Despite this effect, bacterial concentration in runoff remains high. In general, cowpat age, runoff volumes and the location and proportions of bacteria-emitting and non-emitting surfaces determine critical source areas and bacterial flows at the watershed outflow. These data are discussed in terms of feasibility of solutions for management of watercourses and grazing practices.

Innovative assessment tools to improve water quality and watershed management in farming areas.

A lot of initiatives for improving water quality have been developed over the last 15 y in Brittany in response to degradation induced by intensive farming and under the pressure of European policy and environmental organizations. This has involved the partnerships of farmer organizations, organizations in charge of rural affairs, research and formation institutes, and environmental nongovernmental organizations. In this paper, we present 2 complementary aspects of an original, and possibly efficient, water policy within the framework of water management in a medium-sized watershed, including 1) development of new methods of diagnostic and decision support based on participative approaches and 2) development of new methods to assess the current status and effect of alternative scenarios, taking into account the complexity of a system with strong agricultural and hydrological variability and a relatively long response time. The 1st series of methods, which deals with the buffering capacity of landscape structures, is close to a social learning approach; the 2nd illustrates the importance, for policy makers, of a precisely defined protocol for data monitoring and analysis and of the use of spatially distributed and dynamic models when water policy is based on an obligation of results. In spite of the coexistence of all the necessary constituents of a coherent policy, it seems difficult to build. The state of current water quality illustrates the importance and limitations of incentive policy.

Framework and tools for agricultural landscape assessment relating to water quality protection.

While many scientific studies show the influence of agricultural landscape patterns on water cycle and water quality, only a few of these have proposed scientifically based and operational methods to improve water management. Territ'eau is a framework developed to adapt agricultural landscapes to water quality protection, using components such as farmers' fields, seminatural areas, and human infrastructures, which can act as sources, sinks, or buffers on water quality. This framework allows us to delimit active areas contributing to water quality, defined by the following three characteristics: (i) the dominant hydrological processes and their flow pathways, (ii) the characteristics of each considered pollutant, and (iii) the main landscape features. These areas are delineated by analyzing the flow connectivity from the stream to the croplands, by assessing the buffer functions of seminatural areas according to their flow pathways. Hence, this framework allows us to identify functional seminatural areas in terms of water quality and assess their limits and functions; it helps in proposing different approaches for changing agricultural landscape, acting on agricultural practices or systems, and/or conserving or rebuilding seminatural areas in controversial landscapes. Finally, it allows us to objectivize the functions of the landscape components, for adapting these components to new environmental constraints.

Nitrogen removal in valley bottom wetlands: assessment in headwater catchments distributed throughout a large basin.

Although the reduction of nutrient loading between uplands and streams is sometimes considered evidence of the effect of wetlands acting as buffer zones, the influence of valley bottom wetlands (VBWs) on NO(3)(-) loading has seldom been assessed at the catchment scale. The objective of this study was to quantify the impact of VBWs on NO(3)(-) concentrations in streams in the Brittany region of France. We analyzed the spatial variation in NO(3)-N concentrations in 18 headwater catchments located in a 400-km(2) basin, with varying topographic, climatic, and agricultural intensity conditions. Approximately every 10 d, water was sampled during the high flow season. We investigated the relationships between the mean NO(3)(-) concentration and different characteristics of the catchments: (i) the amount of effective rainfall, i.e., the combined effect of precipitation and actual evapotranspiration on discharge and chemical dilution, (ii) the intensity of farming, i.e., the area used for farming in the catchments and the surplus of the agricultural N budget, and (iii) the relative area of VBWs. Although the first two characteristics were the main factors controlling N concentration variability, a step-by-step regression allowed us to attribute a significant part of the NO(3)(-) concentration decrease to the increase of VBW area in each catchment. For an increase of VBW area from 11 to 16%, the NO(3)-N concentration decreased from 5.3 to 4.2 mg L(-1). Therefore in this basin, VBWs reduced the NO(3)(-) concentrations in streams with sources in agricultural fields by 30%. This work demonstrates the contribution of natural VBWs to NO(3)(-) removal at the catchment scale compared to other sources of variation, which is a current need for integrating water quality criteria into wetland management.

A method for improving the management of controversial wetland.

Valley bottom wetlands in agricultural landscapes often are neglected in national and regional wetland inventories. Although these areas are small, located in the bottomlands of the headwater catchments, and scattered in the rural landscape, they strongly influence hydrology, water quality, and biodiversity over the whole catchment area. Valley bottom wetlands often are considered as controversial wetlands. Awareness of the functional role of wetlands is increasing, in parallel with their progressive disappearance in intensive farming landscapes. The need to improve tools for controlling wetland management is a primary consideration for decision makers and land users. This article proposes a method for the inventory of valley bottom wetlands. The method is based on the functional analysis of potential, existing, and efficient valley bottom wetlands (the PEEW approach). Several indicators are proposed for checking the validity of such an approach. Potential wetlands are delineated by means of a topographic index using topographic and pedoclimatic criteria computed from a Digital Elevation Model and easily accessible databases. Existing wetlands are identified from observed surface moisture, the presence of specific wetland vegetation, or soil feature criteria. Efficient wetlands are defined through a given function, such as flow or pollutant regulation or biodiversity control. An analysis of areas at the limits between potential, existing, and efficient wetlands highlights land cultivated or drained in the past, which currently represents negotiating areas in which rehabilitation and other intended management actions can be implemented.

Hydrochemical buffer assessment in agricultural landscapes: from local to catchment scale.

Non-point-source pollution of surface and groundwater is a prominent environmental issue in rural catchments, with major consequences on water supply and aquatic ecosystem quality. Among surface-water protection measures, environmental or landscape management policies support the implementation and the management of buffer zones. Although a great number of studies have focused on buffer zones, quantification of the buffer effect is still a recurring question. The purpose of this article is a critical review of the assessment of buffer-zone functioning. Our objective is to provide land planners and managers with a set of variables to assess the limits and possibilities for quantifying buffer impact at the catchment scale. We first consider the scale of the local landscape feature. The most commonly used empirical method for assessing buffers is to calculate water/nutrient budgets from inflow-outflow monitoring at the level of landscape structures. We show that several other parameters apart from mean depletion of flux can be used to describe buffer functions. Such parameters include variability, with major implication for water management. We develop a theoretical framework to clarify the assessment of the buffer effect and propose a systematic analysis taking account of temporal variability. Second, we review the current assessment of buffer effects at the catchment scale according to the theoretical framework established at the local scale. Finally, we stress the limits of direct empirical assessment at the catchment scale and, in particular, we emphasize the hierarchy in hydrological processes involved at the catchment scale: The landscape feature function is constrained by other factors (climate and geology) that are of importance at a broader spatial and temporal scale.