Water Scarcity Assessment of Hydropower Plants in China under Climate Change, Sectoral Competition, and Energy Expansion.

Hydropower plays a pivotal role in low-carbon electricity generation, yet many projects are situated in regions facing heightened water scarcity risks. This research devised a plant-level Hydropower Water Scarcity Index (HWSI), derived from the ratio of water demand for electricity generation to basin-scale available runoff water. We assessed the water scarcity of 1736 hydropower plants in China for the baseline year 2018 and projected into the future from 2025 to 2060. The results indicate a notable increase in hydropower generation facing moderate to severe water scarcity (HWSI >0.05), rising from 10% in 2018 to 24-34% of the national total (430-630 TWh), with a projected peak in the 2030s-2040s under the most pessimistic scenarios. Hotspots of risk are situated in the southwest and northern regions, primarily driven by decreased river basin runoff and intensified sectoral water use, rather than by hydropower demand expansion. Comparative analysis of four adaptation strategies revealed that sectoral water savings and enhancing power generation efficiency are the most effective, potentially mitigating a high of 16% of hydropower risks in China. This study provides insights for formulating region-specific adaptation strategies and assessing energy-water security in the face of evolving environmental and societal challenges.

Data-driven approaches linking wastewater and source estimation hazardous waste for environmental management.

Industrial enterprises are major sources of contaminants, making their regulation vital for sustainable development. Tracking contaminant generation at the firm-level is challenging due to enterprise heterogeneity and the lack of a universal estimation method. This study addresses the issue by focusing on hazardous waste (HW), which is difficult to monitor automatically. We developed a data-driven methodology to predict HW generation using wastewater big data which is grounded in the availability of this data with widespread application of automatic sensors and the logical assumption that a correlation exists between wastewater and HW generation. We created a generic framework that used representative variables from diverse sectors, exploited a data-balance algorithm to address long-tail data distribution, and incorporated causal discovery to screen features and improve computation efficiency. Our method was tested on 1024 enterprises across 10 sectors in Jiangsu, China, demonstrating high fidelity (R² = 0.87) in predicting HW generation with 4,260,593 daily wastewater data.

Long-term ambient ozone exposure and incident cardiovascular diseases: National cohort evidence in China.

BACKGROUND: Long-term ozone (O3) exposure has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in mounting cohort evidence, yet its relationship with incident CVD was poorly understood, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) experiencing high ambient air pollution. METHODS: We carried out a nationwide perspective cohort study from 2010 through 2018 by dynamically enrolling 36948 participants across Chinese mainland. Warm-season (April-September) O3 concentrations were estimated using satellite-based machine-learning models with national coverage. Cox proportional hazards model with time-varying exposures was employed to evaluate the association of long-term O3 exposure with incident CVD (overall CVD, hypertension, stroke, and coronary heart disease [CHD]). Assuming causality, a counterfactual framework was employed to estimate O3-attributable CVD burden based on the exposure-response (E-R) relationship obtained from this study. Decomposition analysis was utilized to quantify the contributions of four key direct driving factors (O3 exposure, population size, age structure, and incidence rate) to the net change of O3-related CVD cases between 2010 and 2018. RESULTS: A total of 4428 CVD, 2600 hypertension, 1174 stroke, and 337 CHD events were reported during 9-year follow-up. Each 10-µg/m³ increase in warm-season O3 was associated with an incident risk of 1.078 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.050-1.106) for overall CVD, 1.098 (95% CI: 1.062-1.135) for hypertension, 1.073 (95% CI: 1.019-1.131) for stroke, and 1.150 (95% CI: 1.038-1.274) for CHD, respectively. We observed no departure from linear E-R relationships of O3 exposure with overall CVD (Pnonlinear= 0.22), hypertension (Pnonlinear= 0.19), stroke (Pnonlinear= 0.70), and CHD (Pnonlinear= 0.44) at a broad concentration range of 60-160 µg/m3. Compared with rural dwellers, those residing in urban areas were at significantly greater O3-associated incident risks of overall CVD, hypertension, and stroke. We estimated 1.22 million (10.6% of overall CVD in 2018) incident CVD cases could be attributable to ambient O3 pollution in 2018, representing an overall 40.9% growth (0.36 million) compared to 2010 (0.87 million, 9.7% of overall CVD in 2010). This remarkable rise in O3-attributable CVD cases was primary driven by population aging (+24.0%), followed by increase in O3 concentration (+10.5%) and population size (+6.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term O3 exposure was associated with an elevated risk and burden of incident CVD in Chinese adults, especially among urban dwellers. Our findings underscored policy priorities of implementing joint control measures for fine particulate matter and O3 in the context of accelerated urbanization and population aging in China.

Informing Urban Flood Risk Adaptation by Integrating Human Mobility Big Data During Heavy Precipitation.

Understanding the impact of heavy precipitation on human mobility is critical for finer-scale urban flood risk assessment and achieving sustainable development goals #11 to build resilient and safe cities. Using ∼2.6 million mobile phone signal data collected during the summer of 2018 in Jiangsu, China, this study proposes a novel framework to assess human mobility changes during rainfall events at a high spatial granularity (500 m grid cell). The fine-scale mobility map identifies spatial hotspots with abnormal clustering or reduced human activities. When aggregating to the prefecture-city level, results show that human mobility changes range between -3.6 and 8.9%, revealing varied intracity movement across cities. Piecewise structural equation modeling analysis further suggests that city size, transport system, and crowding level directly affect mobility responses, whereas economic conditions influence mobility through multiple indirect pathways. When overlaying a historical urban flood map, we find such human mobility changes help 23 cities reduce 2.6% flood risks covering 0.45 million people but increase a mean of 1.64% flood risks in 12 cities covering 0.21 million people. The findings help deepen our understanding of the mobility pattern of urban dwellers after heavy precipitation events and foster urban adaptation by supporting more efficient small-scale hazard management.

Integrating Augmented In Situ Measurements and a Spatiotemporal Machine Learning Model To Back Extrapolate Historical Particulate Matter Pollution over the United Kingdom: 1980-2019.

Historical PM2.5 data are essential for assessing the health effects of air pollution exposure across the life course or early life. However, a lack of high-quality data sources, such as satellite-based aerosol optical depth before 2000, has resulted in a gap in spatiotemporally resolved PM2.5 data for historical periods. Taking the United Kingdom as an example, we leveraged the light gradient boosting model to capture the spatiotemporal association between PM2.5 concentrations and multi-source geospatial predictors. Augmented PM2.5 from PM10 measurements expanded the spatiotemporal representativeness of the ground measurements. Observations before and after 2009 were used to train and test the models, respectively. Our model showed fair prediction accuracy from 2010 to 2019 [the ranges of coefficients of determination (R2) for the grid-based cross-validation are 0.71-0.85] and commendable back extrapolation performance from 1998 to 2009 (the ranges of R2 for the independent external testing are 0.32-0.65) at the daily level. The pollution episodes in the 1980s and pollution levels in the 1990s were also reproduced by our model. The 4-decade PM2.5 estimates demonstrated that most regions in England witnessed significant downward trends in PM2.5 pollution. The methods developed in this study are generalizable to other data-rich regions for historical air pollution exposure assessment.

Economic Growth Facilitates Household Fuel Use Transition to Reduce PM2.5-Related Deaths in China.

Exposure to ambient and indoor particle matter (PM2.5) leads to millions of premature deaths in China. In recent years, indoor air pollution and premature deaths associated with polluting fuel cooking demonstrate an abrupt decline. However, the driving forces behind the mortality change are still unclear due to the uncertainty in household fuel use prediction. Here, we propose an integrated approach to estimate the fuel use fractions and PM2.5-related deaths from outdoor and indoor sources during 2000-2020 across China. Our model estimated 1.67 and 1.21 million premature deaths attributable to PM2.5 exposure in 2000 and 2020, respectively. We find that the residential energy transition is associated with a substantial reduction in premature deaths from indoor sources, with 100,000 (95% CI: 76,000-122,000) for urban and 265,000 (228,000-300,000) for rural populations during 2000-2020. Economic growth is the dominant driver of fuel use transition and avoids 21% related deaths (357,000, 315,000-402,000) from polluting fuel cooking since 2000, which offsets the adverse impact of ambient emissions contributed by economic growth. Our findings give an insight into the coupled impact of socioeconomic factors in reshaping health burden in exposure pathways.

International trade shapes global mercury-related health impacts.

Mercury (Hg) is a strong neurotoxin with substantial dangers to human health. Hg undergoes active global cycles, and the emission sources there of can also be geographically relocated through economic trade. Through investigation of a longer chain of the global biogeochemical Hg cycle from economic production to human health, international cooperation on Hg control strategies in Minamata Convention can be facilitated. In the present study, four global models are combined to investigate the effect of international trade on the relocation of Hg emissions, pollution, exposure, and related human health impacts across the world. The results show that 47% of global Hg emissions are related to commodities consumed outside of the countries where the emissions are produced, which has largely influenced the environmental Hg levels and human exposure thereto across the world. Consequently, international trade is found to enable the whole world to avoid 5.7 × 105 points for intelligence quotient (IQ) decline and 1,197 deaths from fatal heart attacks, saving a total of $12.5 billion (2020 USD) in economic loss. Regionally, international trade exacerbates Hg challenges in less developed countries, while resulting in an alleviation in developed countries. The change in economic loss therefore varies from the United States (-$4.0 billion) and Japan (-$2.4 billion) to China (+$2.7 billion). The present results reveal that international trade is a critical factor but might be largely overlooked in global Hg pollution mitigation.

Ambient ozone exposure and depression among middle-aged and older adults: Nationwide longitudinal evidence in China.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies have linked long-term ozone (O3) exposure with depression in developed countries. However, available literature is sparse and exists great heterogeneities. We aimed to investigate the association of long-term O3 exposure with depression among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: We designed a repeated measurement study based on longitudinal data from four waves (2011, 2013, 2015, and 2018) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). Annual mean O3 concentrations assessed through machine learning-based spatiotemporal models were assigned to each participant at city level. Depression score was measured using the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D-10), with scores above the cut-off point of ten defined as depressive symptom. Mixed-effects models were used to evaluate the impact of O3 on depression score and depressive symptom, and quantify the concentration-response (C-R) relationships. Subgroup analyses were performed to examine the potential effect modifications. RESULTS: A total of 19,582 participants with 60,125 visits were included in our analysis, with mean depression score of 8.1 (standard deviation: 6.3). Multivariable-adjusted mixed-effects model estimated a 6.34% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.34%, 9.43%) increase in depression score and an odds ratio (OR) of 1.29 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.45) for depressive symptom associated with per 10-µg/m3 rise in annual mean O3 exposure. Significantly elevated risks were identified only at high concentrations (approximately ≥90 µg/m3). Participants who suffered from chronic diseases had a significant increased risk of depression (% Change in depression score: 8.42% [95% CI: 4.79%, 12.17%], and OR: 1.42 [95% CI: 1.24, 1.62]), and an evident effect modification was identified for depressive symptom (P = 0.01). FINDINGS: Our study provided novel evidence that long-term O3 exposure could be a risk factor for depression among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. Our findings may have significant implications for formulating policies in reducing disease burden of depression by controlling air pollution.

Large Virtual Transboundary Hazardous Waste Flows: The Case of China.

The Basel Convention and prior studies mainly focused on the physical transboundary movements of hazardous waste (transporting waste from one region to another for cheaper disposal). Here, we take China, the world's largest waste producer, as an example and reveal the virtual hazardous waste flows in trade (outsourcing waste by importing waste-intensive products) by developing a multiregional input-output model. Our model characterizes the impact of international trade between China and 140 economies and China's interprovincial trade on hazardous waste generated by 161,599 Chinese enterprises. We find that, in 2015, virtual hazardous waste flows in China's trade reached 26.6 million tons (67% of the national total), of which 31% were generated during the production of goods that were ultimately consumed abroad. Trade-related production is much dirtier than locally consumed production, generating 26% more hazardous waste per unit of GDP. Under the impact of virtual flows, 40% of the waste-intensive production and relevant disposal duty is unequally concentrated in three Chinese provinces (including two least-developed ones, Qinghai and Xinjiang). Our findings imply the importance of expanding the scope of transboundary waste regulations and provide a quantitative basis for introducing consumer responsibilities. This may help relieve waste management burdens in less-developed "waste havens".

Sex disparity in cognitive aging related to later-life exposure to ambient air pollution.

BACKGROUND: Sex difference in the association between ambient air pollution and cognitive aging remained unclear. This current study aimed to assess the impacts of long-term exposure to major air pollutants on cognitive performance among Chinese middle-aged and older adults, and explore whether these associations could be modified by sex. METHODS: By deriving longitudinal data from four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, we included 13,507 participants aged 45+ years who had at least two cognitive tests recorded from 2011 to 2018. We used a standardized questionnaire consisting of five domain-specific functions to measure global cognitive score. Based on well-validated spatiotemporal datasets, annual average concentrations of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3) were assigned to each enrollee at prefectural city level and at the simulated residential addresses through Monte Carlo simulation approach. Linear mixed-effects models were applied to assess the impacts of major air pollutants on cognitive function with multiple adjustments. Sex-stratified analyses were performed to examine the potential effect modification on these associations. To enhance the interpretability of our results, we also compared the estimated effects of air pollutants with the effect of aging on cognitive function. RESULTS: We evaluated 38,950 records of cognitive function tests, of which 44.0% were from women. An increase of 10-µg/m3 in PM2.5, NO2 and O3 exposure were associated with 0.36 (95% confidence interval: -0.40, -0.31), 0.51 (-0.60, -0.43) and 0.26 (-0.47, -0.06) points decline in global cognitive score, respectively, equivalent to the effect of aging by 2.8-5.0 years. Sex-stratified analyses suggested significantly greater cognitive impairment associated with air pollutants in women than men. We found reversely J-shaped concentration-response relationships between ambient air pollutants and cognitive decline in both sexes. Main findings on sex-specific associations were robust to the adjustments for covariates, inclusion criteria, and co-pollutant analyses, as well as sensitivity analyses based on simulation-based exposure for PM2.5 and NO2. CONCLUSIONS: Later-life exposure to ambient air pollution may accelerate cognitive aging of middle-aged and older adults, suggesting significant sex disparity with higher vulnerability in women.

Three-Dimensional Hollow Reduced Graphene Oxide Tube Assembly for Highly Thermally Conductive Phase Change Composites and Efficient Solar-Thermal Energy Conversion.

Due to their extraordinary mechanical strength and electrical and thermal conductivities, graphene fibers and their derivatives have been widely utilized in various functional applications. In this work, we report the synthesis of a three-dimensional (3D) hollow reduced graphene oxide tube assembly (HrGOTA) using the same wet spinning method as graphene fibers. The HrGOTA has high thermal conductivity and displays the unique capability of encapsulating phase change materials for effective solar-thermal energy conversion. The HrGOTA comprises layers of moisture-fused hollow reduced graphene oxide tubes (HrGOTs), whose individual thermal conductivity is up to 578 W m-1 K-1. By impregnating 1-octadecanol into HrGOTs, a 1-octadecanol-filled HrGOT phase change composite (PCC) with a latent heat of 262.5 J g-1 is obtained. This high latent heat results from the interfacial interaction between 1-octadecanol and the reduced graphene oxide tube, as evidenced by the shifts in XRD patterns of 1-octadecanol-filled and 1-octadecanol/multiwalled carbon nanotube-filled HrGOTA samples. In addition, 1 wt % multiwalled carbon nanotubes are added to the PCC to enhance visible light absorption. Because of their high thermal conductivity and visible light absorption rates, these new PCCs display high solar-thermal energy conversion and storage efficiencies of up to 81.7%, commensurate with state-of-the-art carbon-based PCCs but with significantly lower carbon weight percentages.

Exposure to air pollution and gains in body weight and waist circumference among middle-aged and older adults.

INTRODUCTION: Emerging research suggested a nexus between air pollution exposure and risks of overweight and obesity, while existing longitudinal evidence was extensively sparse, particularly in densely populated regions. This study aimed to quantify concentration-response associations of changes in weight and waist circumference (WC) related to air pollution in Chinese adults. METHODS: We conceived a nationally representative longitudinal study from 2011 to 2015, by collecting 34,854 observations from 13,757 middle-aged and older adults in 28 provincial regions of China. Participants' height, weight and WC were measured by interviewers using standardized devices. Concentrations of major air pollutants including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) predicted by well-validated spatiotemporal models were assigned to participants according to their residential cities. Possible exposure biases were checked through 1000 random simulated exposure at individual level, using a Monte Carlo simulation approach. Linear mixed-effects models were applied to estimate the relationships of air pollution with weight and WC changes, and restricted cubic spline functions were adopted to smooth concentration-response (C-R) curves. RESULTS: Each 10-µg/m3 rise in PM2.5, NO2 and O3 was associated with an increase of 0.825 (95% confidence interval: 0.740, 0.910), 0.921 (0.811, 1.032) and 1.379 (1.141, 1.616) kg in weight, respectively, corresponding to WC gains of 0.688 (0.592, 0.784), 1.189 (1.040, 1.337) and 0.740 (0.478, 1.002) cm. Non-significant violation for linear C-R relationships was observed with exception of NO2-weight and PM2.5/NO2-WC associations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed elevated vulnerability in women to gain of weight in exposure to PM2.5 and NO2. Sensitive analyses largely supported our primary findings via assessing exposure estimates from 1000 random simulations, and performing reanalysis based on non-imputed covariates and non-obese participants, as well as alternative indicators (i.e., body mass index and waist-to-height ratio). CONCLUSIONS: We found positively robust associations of later-life exposure to air pollutants with gains in weight and WC based on a national sample of Chinese adult men and women. Our findings suggested that mitigation of air pollution may be an efficient intervention to relieve obesity burden.

Emergent, Non-Aging, Extendable, and Rechargeable Exchange Bias in 2D Fe3 GeTe2 Homostructures Induced by Moderate Pressuring.

As a crucial concept in magnetism and spintronics, exchange bias (ExB) measures the asymmetry in the hysteresis loop of a pinned ferromagnet (FM)/antiferromagnet (AFM) interface. Previous studies are mainly focused on FM/AFM heterostructures composed of conventional bulk materials, whose complex interfaces prohibit precise control and full understanding of the phenomenon. Here, the enabling power of 2D magnets is exploited to demonstrate the emergence, non-aging, extendability, and rechargeability of ExB in van der Waals Fe3 GeTe2 homostructures, upon moderate pressuring. The emergence of the ExB is attributed to a local stress-induced FM-to-AFM transition, as validated using first-principles calculations, and confirmed in magneto-optical Kerr effect and second harmonic generation measurements. It is also observed that, negligible ExB aging before the training effect suddenly takes place through avalanching, pronounced delay of the avalanche via timed pressure repetition (extendability), ExB recovery in the post-training sample upon refreshed pressuring (rechargeability), and demonstrate its versatile tunability. These striking findings offer unprecedented insights into the underlying principles of ExB and its training, with immense technological applications in sight.

Long-term exposure to ambient NO2 and adult mortality: A nationwide cohort study in China.

INTRODUCTION: A number of population-based studies have investigated long-term effects of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) on mortality, while great heterogeneities exist between studies. In highly populated countries in Asia, cohort evidence for NO2-mortality association was extensively sparse. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to quantify longitudinal association of ambient NO2 exposure with all-cause mortality in Chinese adults. METHODS: A national cohort of 30,843 adults were drawn from 25 provincial regions across mainland China, and followed up from 2010 through 2018. Participants' exposures to ambient air pollutants were assigned according to their residential counties at baseline, through deriving monthly estimates from high-quality gridded datasets developed by machine learning methods. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures were utilized to assess the association of all-cause mortality with long-term exposure to ambient NO2. NO2-attributable deaths in China were estimated by province and county for years 2010 and 2018, with reference to the counterfactual exposure of 6.9 µg/m3 (the lowest county-level average in this cohort). RESULTS: We observed a total of 1662 deaths during 224020 person-years of follow-up (median 8.1 year). An approximately linear NO2-mortality relation (p = 0.273 for nonlinearity) was identified across a broad exposure range of 6.9-57.4 µg/m3. Per 10-µg/m3 increase in annual NO2 exposure was associated with an hazard ratio of 1.127 (95% confidence interval: 1.042-1.219, p = 0.003) for all-cause mortality. Risk estimates remained robust after additionally adjusting for the confounding effects of co-pollutants (i.e., PM2.5 or/and O3). In 2018, 1.65 million deaths could be attributed to ambient NO2 exposure (national average 17.3 µg/m3) in China, representing a decrease of 4.3% compared with the estimate of 1.72 million in 2010 (20.5 µg/m3). CONCLUSION: This cohort study provided national evidence for elevated risk of all-cause mortality associated with long-term exposure to ambient NO2 in Chinese adults.

Quality matters: Pollution exacerbates water scarcity and sectoral output risks in China.

Pollution exacerbates a region's water scarcity by making water unfit for different uses and reducing freshwater availability. Local water scarcity may lead to economic output losses, and the risk can be transmitted to downstream sectors through reduced input supplies. Previous studies focus on quantity-based water scarcity assessment. It is still unknown how water quality constraints may amplify economic risks of local water-use sectors and distant economies. Here we introduce an integrated method and assess the impacts of both quantity and quality-based local physical water scarcity risks (LWSR) and virtual water scarcity risks (VWSR) in domestic trade system in China. We find in 2017 quality-based LWSR and VWSR in China are ∼593 and ∼240 billion US$. Inclusion of water pollution constraints almost doubles the risks of economic losses due to insufficient clean water supply. We then identify critical regions and sectors that are highly risky or vulnerable to the supply chains. We find water pollution makes risky VWSR exporters more centralized in a few Northern provinces where available freshwater resources are already limited, e.g. the agriculture sector in Hebei province. VWSR importers span broadly, but water pollution increases concentrations of upstream suppliers that face local water scarcity for most provinces, decreasing overall resilience of China's domestic trade network. Our results underscore the needs to alleviate overall scarcity risks by conserving physical water resources and improving water quality simultaneously.

Assessing the effects of ultraviolet radiation, residential greenness and air pollution on vitamin D levels: A longitudinal cohort study in China.

Vitamin D metabolism is essential in aging and can be affected by multiple environmental factors. However, most studies conducted single exposure analyses. We aim to assess the individual and combined effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation, residential greenness, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and ozone (O3) on vitamin D levels in a national cohort study of older adults in China. We used the 2012 and 2014 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data, and measured the environmental exposure in the same year. We interpolated the UV radiation from monitoring stations, measured residential greenness through satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), modeled PM2.5 with satellite data, and estimated O3 using machine learning. We dichotomized serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25(OH)D), the primary circulating form of vitamin D, into non-deficiency (≥50 nmol/L) and deficiency (<50 nmol/L) categories. We used the generalized estimating equation for analysis, adjusted for sociodemographic information, lifestyle, physical condition, and season of blood draw, and calculated joint odds ratios based on the Cumulative Risk Index. We also explored the interaction between interested exposures, modification of participants' characteristics, and potential mediation. We included 1,336 participants, with a mean age of 83 at baseline. In single exposure models, the odds ratios of vitamin D deficiency (VDD) for per interquartile range increase in UV radiation, NDVI, PM2.5, and O3 and decrease were 0.39 (95 % CI:0.33,0.46), 0.90 (0.81,1.00), 1.65 (1.53,1.78), 1.67 (1.46,1.92), respectively. UV radiation mediated nearly 48 % and 78 % of the relationship between VDD and PM2.5 and O3, respectively. The association between UV radiation and VDD was stronger in females than men (OR: 2.25 vs 1.22). UV radiation, residential greenness can protect against VDD, while, PM2.5 and O3 increase the risk of VDD. UV radiation partly mediated the association between air pollution and VDD.

A stochastic exposure model integrating random forest and agent-based approaches: Evaluation for PM2.5 in Jiangsu, China.

This research proposes an Activity Pattern embedded Air Pollution Exposure Model (AP2EM), based on survey data of when, where, and how people spend their time and indoor/outdoor ratios for microenvironments. AP2EM integrates random forest and agent-based approaches to simulate the stochastic exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM2.5) along with indoor and in-vehicle PM2.5 of outdoor origin. The R2 of the linear regression between the model's calculations and personal measurement was 0.65, which was more accurate than the commonly-used aggregated exposure (AE) model and the outdoor exposure (OE) model. The population-weighted PM2.5 exposure estimated by the AP2EM was 36.7 µg/m3 in Jiangsu, China, during 2014-2017. The OE model overestimated exposure by 54.0%, and the AE model underestimated exposure by 6.5%. These misestimate reflect ignorance of traditional studies on effects posed from time spent indoors (~85%) and doing low respiratory rate activities (~93%), problems of biased sampling, and neglecting low probability events. The proposed AP2EM treats activity patterns of individuals as chains and uses stochastic estimates to model activity choices, providing a more comprehensive understanding of human activity and exposure characteristics. Overall, the AP2EM is applicable for other air pollutants in different regions and benefits China's air pollution control policy designs.

Associations between short-term ambient ozone exposure and cause-specific mortality in rural and urban areas of Jiangsu, China.

Most previous studies on the acute health effects of ozone are limited to urban areas, largely due to the paucity of air pollutant measurements in rural areas. We here estimated the county-specific daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentration in Jiangsu Province, China during 2015-2018, using a recently developed spatiotemporal machine learning model at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° (∼11 × 11 km). Counties were equally divided into urban and rural groups based on the median of the percentage of urban residents across Jiangsu counties obtained from the National Population Census in 2010. We first conducted time-series analyses to estimate the county-specific effect of ozone using generalized linear models, then pooled the effect estimates by random-effects modeling. A 10 µg/m3 increase in the 4-day moving average (lag 0-3) of ambient ozone exposure was associated with increases of 0.66% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.36%-0.95%) in daily nonaccidental mortality in rural areas and 0.42% in urban areas (95% CI, 0.27%-0.56%). Short-term ambient ozone exposure was associated with an increased risk of mortality caused by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Our finding suggests that both urban and rural residents suffer adverse health effects from short-term ozone exposure.

Threshold dynamics of a nonlocal and delayed cholera model in a spatially heterogeneous environment.

A nonlocal and delayed cholera model with two transmission mechanisms in a spatially heterogeneous environment is derived. We introduce two basic reproduction numbers, one is for the bacterium in the environment and the other is for the cholera disease in the host population. If the basic reproduction number for the cholera bacterium in the environment is strictly less than one and the basic reproduction number of infection is no more than one, we prove globally asymptotically stability of the infection-free steady state. Otherwise, the infection will persist and there exists at least one endemic steady state. For the special homogeneous case, the endemic steady state is actually unique and globally asymptotically stable. Under some conditions, the basic reproduction number of infection is strictly decreasing with respect to the diffusion coefficients of cholera bacteria and infectious hosts. When these conditions are violated, numerical simulation suggests that spatial diffusion may not only spread the infection from high-risk region to low-risk region, but also increase the infection level in high-risk region.

Decrease in the chronic health effects from PM2.5 during the 13th Five-Year Plan in China: Impacts of air pollution control policies.

The Chinese government implemented a series of policies to improve air quality during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan (13th FYP). However, the long-term health effects of the 13th FYP air pollution control policies have not been evaluated, and the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has brought great uncertainty regarding the evaluation of the effects. In this study, we selected 329 cities in mainland China to study the chronic health effects due to the decrease in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) during the 13th FYP. The relative risk (RR) of PM2.5 exposure was obtained from a previous study, and the total premature deaths were calculated. We also applied the grey prediction model to predict the PM2.5 concentration in each city in 2020 to evaluate the impacts of COVID-19. The results showed that the annual PM2.5 concentration was reduced from 49.7 µg/m3 in 2015 to 33.2 µg/m3 in 2020, and premature deaths were reduced from 1,186,201 (95% CI: 910,339-1,451,102) and 446,415 (in key regions, 95% CI: 343,426-544,813) in 2015 to 997,955 (95% CI: 762,167-1,226,652) and 368,786 (in key regions, 95% CI: 282,114-452,567) in 2020, respectively. A total of 188,246 (95% CI: 148,172-224,450) people avoided premature deaths due to the reduction in PM2.5 concentrations from 2015 to 2020. Although the impacts of COVID-19 in 2020 brought a significant reduction of 35.3% in February (14.2 µg/m3, p < 0.0001) and in March by 17.6% (5.8 µg/m3, p = 0.001), we found that COVID-19 showed few obvious influences on China's long-term air pollution control plans. The observed data and predicted data are very close in annual mean values and showed no statistical significance both in all cities (p = 0.98) and in key regions (p = 0.56) in 2020.