RESUMO
Water erosion poses a significant environmental threat in the Mediterranean region, with pronounced impacts observed throughout Morocco. It impairs soil quality and disrupts both sediment transport and water availability. Contributing factors range from natural (climate, topography, and geology) to anthropogenic (land use, vegetation cover, and management). This study introduces an improved Priority Actions Program/Regional Activity Centre (PAP/RAC) model, enriched with GIS and the Caesium-137 (137Cs) technique, to investigate erosion within Morocco's Raouz basin. Enhanced with additional variables including soil types, slope length, rainfall erosion potential, slope orientation, soil moisture, and land surface temperature, the model transcends the classical approach, promoting granularity and precision in predictions. In addition to the comprehensive model, the 137Cs method, which discerns long-term soil erosion and redistribution, provides a dual-faceted validation, bolstering the robustness of this project's erosion risk evaluation. This study's outcomes underscore the gravity of the erosion hazard with significant soil depletion rates ranging from 8.1 to 20 t ha-1 yr-1, demonstrating the model's alignment with empirical data, affirming its utility. The modified PAP/RAC model concurs with the 137Cs data, demonstrating its usefulness for water erosion assessment and management in similar areas.
RESUMO
We examine the performance of the regional climate model RegCM v4.6 to simulate spatial variability of precipitation in the northwestern region of Morocco during the winter of 2009-2010. Simulations cover 24 months from 2009 to 2010 with 30 km as a horizontal grid. We use NCEP reanalysis as forcing data and for better comparison of results, observed precipitations derived from CRU, CHIRPS, and CMORPH data. Results indicate that, on the whole, the RegCM4 model represents appropriate regional aspects of rainfall over the study area but underestimates precipitations over mountainous and Mediterranean regions of the study area (Case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region) which is probably due to poor representation of orography in the Model and some aspects of local Mediterranean climate. Projected precipitations are also examined in this work in comparison with the reference period of 1970-2005, with simulations performed by RegCM 4.6 regional model for the period 2023-2099 under scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, forced by HadGEM2-ES General Circulation Model. Results show a decrease in precipitations mean for (2023-2099) for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the study area in comparison with the historical period (1970-2005), with a significant decrease under RCP8.5 scenarios. This work proves that the RegCM v4.6 model can be used for regional climate prediction, particularly for the spatial distribution of precipitation, but for sectorial applications and impact studies, the Model outputs should be bias corrected.
