Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination.

BACKGROUND: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. METHODS: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. FINDINGS: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. INTERPRETATION: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Post-COVID symptom profiles and duration in a global convalescent COVID-19 observational cohort: Correlations with demographics, medical history, acute COVID-19 severity and global region.

Background: Post-COVID conditions are characterised by persistent symptoms that negatively impact quality of life after SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. While post-COVID risk factors and symptoms have been extensively described in localised regions, especially in the global north, post-COVID conditions remain poorly understood globally. The global, observational cohort study HVTN 405/HPTN 1901 characterises the convalescent course of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults in North and South America and Africa. Methods: We categorised the cohort by infection severity (asymptomatic, symptomatic, no oxygen requirement (NOR), non-invasive oxygen requirement (NIOR), invasive oxygen requirement (IOR)). We applied a regression model to assess correlations of demographics, co-morbidities, disease severity, and concomitant medications with COVID-19 symptom persistence and duration across global regions. Results: We enrolled 759 participants from Botswana, Malawi, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Peru, and the USA a median of 51 (interquartile range (IQR) = 35-66) days post-diagnosis, from May 2020 to March 2021. 53.8% were female, 69.8% were 18-55 years old (median (md) = 44 years old, IQR = 33-58). Comorbidities included obesity (42.8%), hypertension (24%), diabetes (14%), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection (11.6%) and lung disease (7.5%). 76.2% were symptomatic (NOR = 47.4%; NIOR = 22.9%; IOR = 5.8%). Median COVID-19 duration among symptomatic participants was 20 days (IQR = 11-35); 43.4% reported symptoms after COVID-19 resolution, 33.6% reported symptoms ≥30 days, 9.9% reported symptoms ≥60 days. Symptom duration correlated with disease severity (P < 0.001, NIOR vs NOR; P = 0.003, IOR vs NOR), lung disease (P = 0.001), race (P < 0.05, non-Hispanic Black vs White), and global region (P < 0.001). Prolonged viral shedding correlated with persistent abdominal pain (odds ratio (OR) = 5.51, P < 0.05) and persistent diarrhoea (OR = 6.64, P < 0.01). Conclusions: Post-COVID duration varied with infection severity, race, lung disease, and region. Better understanding post-COVID conditions, including regionally-diverse symptom profiles, may improve clinical assessment and management globally. Registration: Clinicaltrials.gov (#NCT04403880).

Immune correlates analysis of the ENSEMBLE single Ad26.COV2.S dose vaccine efficacy clinical trial.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (<2.7 IU50 ml-1) and increased to 89% (78%, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50 ml-1. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titre curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported the ID50 titre as a correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.

Immune Correlates Analysis of a Single Ad26.COV2.S Dose in the ENSEMBLE COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Clinical Trial.

Anti-spike IgG binding antibody, anti-receptor binding domain IgG antibody, and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody measurements four weeks post-vaccination were assessed as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 outcomes through 83 days post-vaccination and as correlates of protection following a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S COVID-19 vaccine in the placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international, randomized efficacy trial. Each marker had evidence as a correlate of risk and of protection, with strongest evidence for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titer. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; p=0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43, 72%) at nonquantifiable ID50 (< 2.7 IU50/ml) and rose to 89% (78, 96%) at ID50 = 96.3 IU50/ml. Comparison of the vaccine efficacy by ID50 titer curves for ENSEMBLE-US, the COVE trial of the mRNA-1273 vaccine, and the COV002-UK trial of the AZD1222 vaccine supported consistency of the ID50 titer correlate of protection across trials and vaccine types.