Predicting vaccine effectiveness for mpox.

The Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine developed by Bavarian Nordic (MVA-BN) was widely deployed to prevent mpox during the 2022 global outbreak. This vaccine was initially approved for mpox based on its reported immunogenicity (from phase I/II trials) and effectiveness in animal models, rather than evidence of clinical efficacy. However, no validated correlate of protection after vaccination has been identified. Here we performed a systematic search and meta-analysis of the available data to test whether vaccinia-binding ELISA endpoint titer is predictive of vaccine effectiveness against mpox. We observe a significant correlation between vaccine effectiveness and vaccinia-binding antibody titers, consistent with the existing assumption that antibody levels may be a correlate of protection. Combining this data with analysis of antibody kinetics after vaccination, we predict the durability of protection after vaccination and the impact of dose spacing. We find that delaying the second dose of MVA-BN vaccination will provide more durable protection and may be optimal in an outbreak with limited vaccine stock. Although further work is required to validate this correlate, this study provides a quantitative evidence-based approach for using antibody measurements to predict the effectiveness of mpox vaccination.

Masks and respirators for prevention of respiratory infections: a state of the science review.

SUMMARYThis narrative review and meta-analysis summarizes a broad evidence base on the benefits-and also the practicalities, disbenefits, harms and personal, sociocultural and environmental impacts-of masks and masking. Our synthesis of evidence from over 100 published reviews and selected primary studies, including re-analyzing contested meta-analyses of key clinical trials, produced seven key findings. First, there is strong and consistent evidence for airborne transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and other respiratory pathogens. Second, masks are, if correctly and consistently worn, effective in reducing transmission of respiratory diseases and show a dose-response effect. Third, respirators are significantly more effective than medical or cloth masks. Fourth, mask mandates are, overall, effective in reducing community transmission of respiratory pathogens. Fifth, masks are important sociocultural symbols; non-adherence to masking is sometimes linked to political and ideological beliefs and to widely circulated mis- or disinformation. Sixth, while there is much evidence that masks are not generally harmful to the general population, masking may be relatively contraindicated in individuals with certain medical conditions, who may require exemption. Furthermore, certain groups (notably D/deaf people) are disadvantaged when others are masked. Finally, there are risks to the environment from single-use masks and respirators. We propose an agenda for future research, including improved characterization of the situations in which masking should be recommended or mandated; attention to comfort and acceptability; generalized and disability-focused communication support in settings where masks are worn; and development and testing of novel materials and designs for improved filtration, breathability, and environmental impact.

Determinants of uptake of influenza, zoster and pneumococcal vaccines in patients with cardiovascular diseases.

BACKGROUND: Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death and illness. Vaccine-preventable infections may increase acute coronary vascular disease events and the risk of complications. Low vaccine coverage has been reported among adults at high risk of complications from vaccine-preventable infections. There is a gap in research evidence around determinants of uptake of vaccines among adults with CVD. This study examined the uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and zoster vaccines and the determinants of uptake of the vaccines among cardiac patients. METHOD: A prospective cross-sectional study was carried out among hospitalised cardiac patients through an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were used to investigate self-reported uptake of influenza, pneumococcal and zoster vaccines. Univariate and multivariate analyses of participants' social demographic and clinical characteristics were conducted to identify factors for receiving influenza vaccine. RESULTS: Low vaccination rates among 104 participants were found for influenza (45.2%), pneumococcal (13.5%) and zoster (5.8%) vaccines. The most common reason for not receiving influenza vaccine was concern about side effects. Lack of awareness about the pneumococcal and zoster vaccines was the main reason for the poor uptake of these vaccines. Australia-born participants were more likely to receive influenza vaccine than overseas-born participants. Working-age participants and, interestingly, people living with a current smoker were less likely to receive influenza vaccine. CONCLUSION: Influenza, pneumococcal and zoster vaccine uptake among cardiac patients was low. Encouraging physician recommendations for vaccination for cardiac patients under 65 years of age and addressing vaccination challenges among people from culturally and linguistically diverse backgrounds and pharmacy, workplace, and hospital vaccination may help increase vaccination uptake among cardiac patients.

Understanding the impact of adult pertussis and current approaches to vaccination: A narrative review and expert panel recommendations.

Pertussis has several notable consequences, causing economic burden, increased strain on healthcare facilities, and reductions in quality of life. Recent years have seen a trend toward an increase in pertussis cases affecting older children and adults. To boost immunity, and protect vulnerable populations, an enduring approach to vaccination has been proposed, but gaps remain in the evidence surrounding adult vaccination that are needed to inform such a policy. Gaps include: the true incidence of pertussis and its complications in adults; regional variations in disease recognition and reporting; and incidence of severe disease, hospitalizations, and deaths in older adults. Better data on the efficacy/effectiveness of pertussis vaccination in adults, duration of protection, and factors leading to poor vaccine uptake are needed. Addressing the critical evidence gaps will help highlight important areas of unmet need and justify the importance of adult pertussis vaccination to healthcare professionals, policymakers, and payers.

Reducing airborne transmissible diseases in perioperative environments.

The COVID-19 pandemic has transformed our understanding of aerosol transmissible disease and the measures required to minimise transmission. Anaesthesia providers are often in close proximity to patients and other hospital staff for prolonged periods while working in operating and procedure rooms. Although enhanced ventilation provides some protection from aerosol transmissible disease in these work areas, close proximity and long duration of exposure have the opposite effect. Surgical masks provide only minimal additional protection. Surgical patients are also at risk from viral and bacterial aerosols. Despite having recently experienced the most significant pandemic in 100 yr, we continue to lack adequate understanding of the true risks encountered from aerosol transmissible diseases in the operating room, and the best course of action to protect patients and healthcare workers from them in the future. Nevertheless, hospitals can take specific actions now by providing respirators for routine use, encouraging staff to utilise respirators routinely, establishing triggers for situations that require respirator use, educating staff concerning the prevention of aerosol transmissible diseases, and providing portable air purifiers for perioperative spaces with low levels of ventilation.

Cost-benefit of influenza vaccination in preventing sudden cardiac arrest amongst Australian adults.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to estimate the economic cost benefit of funding influenza vaccination to all Australian adults 50-64 years and predict its effect on sudden cardiac arrest (SCA) deaths and hospitalisation. METHODS: We combined SCA hospitalisation data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) with survival, vaccination, and cost parameters from published literature to create a model estimating the cost benefit of universally funded influenza vaccinations to prevent SCA deaths and hospitalisation. Costs were considered from a government perspective and included cost of vaccines and GP consultations, whilst averted deaths were estimated through the age-adjusted value of a statistical life. RESULTS: The target policy was estimated to prevent 278 SCA hospitalisations and 1269 SCA deaths. This would result in cost-savings of almost $4 billion annually, with an incremental benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of 59.94. The majority of savings were associate with averted deaths. When a sensitivity analysis was performed by altering statistical life year values and reducing life years left, the cost-saving remained significant with a minimum BCR of 29.97 derived. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing SCA through extended vaccination including adults 50-64 years is likely to be a cost beneficial policy from a governmental perspective. SCA deaths account for a significant economic loss due to the high mortality rate, which was far greater than the costs saved through averted hospitalisations. More accurate parameters are needed to improve the reliability of these estimate; however, this model can be used as a basis for further research into the economic impact of SCA.

Measles, mumps, rubella and varicella antibodies among international and domestic university students.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-preventable infections are generally well controlled in Australia. However, gaps in immunity can lead to outbreaks and are important to identify. Young adults are a highly mobile population and a potential source of imported infections. We aimed to evaluate anti- measles, mumps, rubella and varicella (MMR&V) IgG seroprevalence and explore factors relating to antibody seropositivity. METHODS: A cross-sectional online survey was conducted among students from a large Australian university to collect demographic, vaccination, infection and travel characteristics. Blood samples were collected to measure MMR&V seroprevalence. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with seropositivity. RESULTS: Among 804 university students, seroprevalence (positive or equivocal) for measles was 82.3% (95% CI 79.6-84.8%), mumps 79.5% (95% CI 76.7-82.3%), rubella 91.5% (95% CI 89.6-93.5%) and varicella 86.2% (95% CI 84.1-88.8%), with 452 (56.2%, 95% CI 52.8-59.6) seropositive to all four viruses. Varicella seropositivity was highest in the older birth cohort (born 1988-1991). Measles seropositivity was higher for international students compared to domestic students. Among international students, mumps seroprevalence was significantly lower than measles and rubella seroprevalence. International travel in the previous 12 months was reported by 63.1% of students, but only 18.2% of travellers reported seeking pre-travel health advice prior to most recent international travel. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, this study suggests immunity to MMR&V is sub-optimal. We found the university student population to be highly mobile and unlikely to seek pre-travel advice; thus, they are a potential source of infection importation. The implementation of university immunization policies could address the gaps identified and our findings can inform the development of targeted vaccination campaigns.

Universal masking during COVID-19 outbreaks in aged care settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Aged care facilities (ACF) are a high-risk COVID-19 transmission setting, and older residents are at greater risk of severe outcomes. This systematic review and meta-analysis assessed whether universal masking and COVID-19 vaccination reduce SARS-CoV-2 attack rates (ARs) in ACF. Articles published between 1 December 2019 and 28 February 2022 were screened across five databases (Medline, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL)). Risk of bias was assessed using relevant Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools. Meta-analysis of single proportions, subgroup analysis, and meta-regression were performed to compare the effects of universal masking and vaccine doses on pooled SARS-CoV-2 ARs. Of 99 included articles, SARS-CoV-2 ARs for residents were available in 86 studies (representing 139 outbreaks), and for staff in 49 studies (78 outbreaks). Universal masking was associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 ARs in ACF outbreaks (AR = 34.9% [95% CI: 27.2-42.6%]) compared to facilities without universal masking (67.3% [54.2-80.4%], p < .0001). In ACF with universal masking prior to outbreak onset, facility-wide testing, and documentation of asymptomatic infection, the asymptomatic AR at time of testing was 11.4% (6.5-17.4%) in residents. Receipt of zero, one and two vaccination doses were associated with ARs of 64.9% (49.6-80.2%), 54.9% (33.7-76.1%) and 45.2% (29.2-61.3%), respectively. To protect residents from COVID-19, ACF should provide vaccination of residents and staff, universal masking for staff, and facility-wide testing during times of heightened community transmission.

Population-Based Study of Pertussis Incidence and Risk Factors among Persons >50 Years of Age, Australia.

Despite vaccination programs, pertussis has been poorly controlled, especially among older adults in Australia. This longitudinal, retrospective, observational study aimed to estimate the incidence and risk factors of pertussis among persons ≥50 years of age in Australia in the primary care setting, including those with underlying chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. We used the IQVIA general practitioner electronic medical record database to identify patients ≥50 years of age with a clinical diagnosis of pertussis during 2015-2019. Pertussis incidence rates ranged from 57.6 to 91.4 per 100,000 persons and were higher among women and highest in those 50-64 years of age. Patients with COPD or asthma had higher incidence rates and an increased risk for pertussis compared with the overall population ≥50 years of age. Our findings suggest that persons ≥50 years of age in Australia with COPD or asthma have a higher incidence of and risk for pertussis diagnosis.

Association of recent respiratory illness and influenza with acute myocardial infarction among the Bangladeshi population: A case-control study.

Current evidence suggests that recent acute respiratory infections and seasonal influenza may precipitate acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study examined the potential link between recent clinical respiratory illness (CRI) and influenza, and AMI in Bangladesh. Conducted during the 2018 influenza season at a Dhaka tertiary-level cardiovascular (CV) hospital, it included 150 AMI cases and two control groups: 44 hospitalized cardiac patients without AMI and 90 healthy individuals. Participants were matched by gender and age groups. The study focused on self-reported CRI and laboratory-confirmed influenza ascertained via quantitative real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) within the preceding week, analyzed using multivariable logistic regression. Results showed that cases reported CRI, significantly more frequently than healthy controls (27.3% vs. 13.3%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.06), although this was not significantly different from all controls (27.3% vs. 22.4%; aOR: 1.19; 95% CI: 0.65-2.18). Influenza rates were insignificantly higher among cases than controls. The study suggests that recent respiratory illnesses may precede AMI onset among Bangladeshi patients. Infection prevention and control practices, as well as the uptake of the influenza vaccine, may be advocated for patients at high risk of acute CV events.

Systematic review of influenza vaccine effectiveness against laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults living in aged care facilities.

We estimated the effectiveness of influenza vaccines in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza among older adults in aged care. Electronic database searches were conducted using search terms, and studies were selected as per the selection criteria. Fourteen studies were included for final review. The studies exhibited considerable variation in reported vaccine effectiveness (VE) across different seasons. Among the observational studies, VE ranged from 7.2% to 89.8% against laboratory-confirmed influenza across different vaccines. Randomized clinical trials demonstrated a 17% reduction in infection rates with the adjuvanted trivalent vaccine. The limitations include the small number of included studies conducted in different countries or regions, varied seasons, variations in diagnostic testing methods, a focus on the A/H3N2 strain, and few studies available on the effectiveness of enhanced influenza vaccines in aged care settings. Despite challenges associated with achieving optimal protection, the studies showed the benefits of influenza vaccination in the elderly residents.

Healthcare Workers' SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Four Hospital Outbreaks during Delta Variant Prevalence in Sydney, Australia.

Background: Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections due to occupational exposure. The use of airborne personal protective equipment (PPE) significantly reduces this risk. In June 2021, an epidemic of the Delta variant began in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Concurrent PPE guidelines, set by the Clinical Excellence Commission (CEC), restricted the use of respirators. Objective: To understand the relationship of PPE guidelines with workplace-acquired HCW SARS-CoV-2 infections in different clinical settings and to examine the relationship between rates of community transmission and workplace-acquired HCW infections during the Delta outbreak in NSW. Methods: Total SARS-CoV-2 HCW infections between 13 June and 30 October 2021 (first four months of the Delta wave) were estimated from the government COVID-19 surveillance reports and compared with the surveillance reports of community transmission. In the absence of a detailed reporting of HCW infections, open-source data including news articles, media releases, and epidemiological surveillance reports were also collected. Data were extracted on HCW cases of SARS-CoV-2 from four hospitals, including the number of HCW cases (per NSW Health definition), clinical setting, PPE guidelines, and evidence of increasing local transmission. Results: SARS-CoV-2 infections in HCW identified as workplace-acquired infections (n = 177) and those without a known transmission source (n = 532) increased during the period of increasing community transmission (n = 75,014) in NSW. Four hospital COVID-19 clusters affecting 20 HCWs were identified between June and October 2021. HCW clusters occurred in general wards where staff were recommended to wear surgical masks. No workplace-acquired HCW infections were reported in these hospitals from critical care wards, where respirators were recommended during the same outbreak weeks. Conclusions: Differences in PPE policy across different wards may leave healthcare staff at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. During periods of high community transmission, respirators should be provided to protect hospital staff. Formal reporting of HCW infections should occur.

Open-Source Intelligence for Detection of Radiological Events and Syndromes Following the Invasion of Ukraine in 2022: Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: On February 25, 2022, Russian forces took control of the Chernobyl power plant after continuous fighting within the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Continual events occurred in the month of March, which raised the risk of potential contamination of previously uncontaminated areas and the potential for impacts on human and environmental health. The disruption of war has caused interruptions to normal preventive activities, and radiation monitoring sensors have been nonfunctional. Open-source intelligence can be informative when formal reporting and data are unavailable. OBJECTIVE: This paper aimed to demonstrate the value of open-source intelligence in Ukraine to identify signals of potential radiological events of health significance during the Ukrainian conflict. METHODS: Data were collected from search terminology for radiobiological events and acute radiation syndrome detection between February 1 and March 20, 2022, using 2 open-source intelligence (OSINT) systems, EPIWATCH and Epitweetr. RESULTS: Both EPIWATCH and Epitweetr identified signals of potential radiobiological events throughout Ukraine, particularly on March 4 in Kyiv, Bucha, and Chernobyl. CONCLUSIONS: Open-source data can provide valuable intelligence and early warning about potential radiation hazards in conditions of war, where formal reporting and mitigation may be lacking, to enable timely emergency and public health responses.

News Coverage of Face Masks in Australia During the Early COVID-19 Pandemic: Topic Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, web-based media coverage of preventative strategies proliferated substantially. News media was constantly informing people about changes in public health policy and practices such as mask-wearing. Hence, exploring news media content on face mask use is useful to analyze dominant topics and their trends. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine news related to face masks as well as to identify related topics and temporal trends in Australian web-based news media during the early COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: Following data collection from the Google News platform, a trend analysis on the mask-related news titles from Australian news publishers was conducted. Then, a latent Dirichlet allocation topic modeling algorithm was applied along with evaluation matrices (quantitative and qualitative measures). Afterward, topic trends were developed and analyzed in the context of mask use during the pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 2345 face mask-related eligible news titles were collected from January 25, 2020, to January 25, 2021. Mask-related news showed an increasing trend corresponding to increasing COVID-19 cases in Australia. The best-fitted latent Dirichlet allocation model discovered 8 different topics with a coherence score of 0.66 and a perplexity measure of -11.29. The major topics were T1 (mask-related international affairs), T2 (introducing mask mandate in places such as Melbourne and Sydney), and T4 (antimask sentiment). Topic trends revealed that T2 was the most frequent topic in January 2021 (77 news titles), corresponding to the mandatory mask-wearing policy in Sydney. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated that Australian news media reflected a wide range of community concerns about face masks, peaking as COVID-19 incidence increased. Harnessing the news media platforms for understanding the media agenda and community concerns may assist in effective health communication during a pandemic response.

The impact of COVID-19 and COVID vaccination on cardiovascular outcomes.

COVID-19 is an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. COVID-19 vaccination may prevent this, but in some cases, COVID-19 vaccination may cause myocarditis or pericarditis. Patients with COVID-19 may present with non-specific symptoms that have a cardiac origin. This review examines the cardiovascular complications of COVID-19 infection and the impact of COVID-19 vaccination. COVID-19 cardiovascular complications include myocardial injury, pericarditis, coagulopathy, myocardial infarction, heart failure, arrhythmias, and persistent post-acute risk of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. Diagnostic and referral pathways for non-specific symptoms, such as dyspnoea and fatigue, remain unclear. COVID-19 vaccination is cardioprotective overall but is associated with myopericarditis in young males, though at a lower rate than following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Increased awareness among primary care physicians of potential cardiovascular causes of non-specific post-COVID-19 symptoms, including in younger adults, such as fatigue, dyspnoea, and chest pain, is essential. We recommend full vaccination with scheduled booster doses, optimal management of cardiovascular risk factors, rapid treatment of COVID-19, and clear diagnostic, referral, and management pathways for patients presenting with non-specific symptoms to rule out cardiac complications.

Estimated Mask Use and Temporal Relationship to COVID-19 Epidemiology of Black Lives Matter Protests in 12 Cities.

BACKGROUND: There is an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during mass gatherings and a risk of asymptomatic infection. We aimed to estimate the use of masks during Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests and whether these protests increased the risk of COVID-19. Two reviewers screened 496 protest images for mask use, with high inter-rater reliability. Protest intensity, use of tear gas, government control measures, and testing rates were estimated in 12 cities. A correlation analysis was conducted to assess the potential effect of mask use and other measures, adjusting for testing rates, on COVID-19 epidemiology 4 weeks (two incubation periods) post-protests. Mask use ranged from 69 to 96% across protests. There was no increase in the incidence of COVID-19 post-protest in 11 cities. After adjusting for testing rates, only Miami, which involved use of tear gas and had high protest intensity, showed a clear increase in COVID-19 after one incubation period post-protest. No significant correlation was found between incidence and protest factors. Our study showed that protests in most cities studied did not increase COVID-19 incidence in 2020, and a high level of mask use was seen. The absence of an epidemic surge within two incubation periods of a protest is indicative that the protests did not have a major influence on epidemic activity, except in Miami. With the globally circulating highly transmissible Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants, layered interventions such as mandated mask use, physical distancing, testing, and vaccination should be applied for mass gatherings in the future.

Preventing the next pandemic: Use of artificial intelligence for epidemic monitoring and alerts.

Emerging infections are a continual threat to public health security, which can be improved by use of rapid epidemic intelligence and open-source data. Artificial intelligence systems to enable earlier detection and rapid response by governments and health can feasibly mitigate health and economic impacts of serious epidemics and pandemics. EPIWATCH is an artificial intelligence-driven outbreak early-detection and monitoring system, proven to provide early signals of epidemics before official detection by health authorities.