Derivation and validation of novel integrated inpatient mortality prediction score for COVID-19 (IMPACT) using clinical, laboratory, and AI-processed radiological parameter upon admission: a multicentre study.

Limited studies explore the use of AI for COVID-19 prognostication. This study investigates the relationship between AI-aided radiographic parameters, clinical and laboratory data, and mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. We conducted a multicentre retrospective study. The derivation and validation cohort comprised of 512 and 137 confirmed COVID-19 patients, respectively. Variable selection for constructing an in-hospital mortality scoring model was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, followed by logistic regression. The accuracy of the scoring model was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The final model included eight variables: anosmia (OR: 0.280; 95%CI 0.095-0.826), dyspnoea (OR: 1.684; 95%CI 1.049-2.705), loss of consciousness (OR: 4.593; 95%CI 1.702-12.396), mean arterial pressure (OR: 0.928; 95%CI 0.900-0.957), peripheral oxygen saturation (OR: 0.981; 95%CI 0.967-0.996), neutrophil % (OR: 1.034; 95%CI 1.013-1.055), serum urea (OR: 1.018; 95%CI 1.010-1.026), affected lung area score (OR: 1.026; 95%CI 1.014-1.038). The Integrated Inpatient Mortality Prediction Score for COVID-19 (IMPACT) demonstrated a predictive value of 0.815 (95% CI 0.774-0.856) in the derivation cohort. Internal validation resulted in an AUROC of 0.770 (95% CI 0.661-0.879). Our study provides valuable evidence of the real-world application of AI in clinical settings. However, it is imperative to conduct prospective validation of our findings, preferably utilizing a control group and extending the application to broader populations.

Hemodynamic, Oxygenation and Lymphocyte Parameters Predict COVID-19 Mortality.

The mortality of COVID-19 patients has left the world devastated. Many scoring systems have been developed to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients, but several scoring components cannot be carried out in limited health facilities. Herein, the authors attempted to create a new and easy scoring system involving mean arterial pressure (MAP), PF Ratio, or SF ratio-respiration rate (SF Ratio-R), and lymphocyte absolute, which were abbreviated as MPL or MSLR functioning, as a predictive scoring system for mortality within 30 days for COVID-19 patients. Of 132 patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between March and November 2021, we followed up on 96 patients. We present bivariate and multivariate analyses as well as the area under the curve (AUC) and Kaplan-Meier charts. From 96 patients, we obtained an MPL score of 3 points: MAP < 75 mmHg, PF Ratio < 200, and lymphocyte absolute < 1500/µL, whereas the MSLR score was 6 points: MAP < 75 mmHg, SF Ratio < 200, lymphocyte absolute < 1500/µL, and respiration rate 24/min. The MPL cut-off point is 2, while the MSLR is 4. MPL and MSLR have the same sensitivity (79.1%) and specificity (75.5%). The AUC value of MPL vs. MSLR was 0.802 vs. 0.807. The MPL ≥ 2 and MSLR ≥ 4 revealed similar predictions for survival within 30 days (p < 0.05). Conclusion: MPL and MSLR scores are potential predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients within 30 days in a resource-limited country.

The use of antibiotic prophylaxis in patients undergoing urologic procedures in an academic hospital Surabaya: A retrospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Prophylactic antibiotics in urological procedures are essential to prevent postoperative infections. A different approach in selecting antibiotic prophylaxis according to the type of procedure is needed. METHODOLOGY: A retrospective study was carried out at an academic hospital in Surabaya, Indonesia, by collecting medical records of patients who underwent urologic procedures within 2019- 2020, including microbiological data. RESULT: One hundred seventy-nine urological procedures were assessed. Antibiotic prophylaxis was administered in the clean-contaminated and clean procedures (93.2% and 6.8%, respectively). Ceftriaxone was commonly used (69.3%), single-dose, one day before the surgery. Gram-negative bacteria were widely found in the urinary culture of patients (75.2%). E. coli, K. pneumoniae, and P. aeruginosa were dominating with low susceptibility to cephalosporins. ESBL-producing bacteria were E. coli (64%) and K. pneumoniae (89%). CONCLUSIONS: The 3rd generation cephalosporins (ceftriaxone) are mostly used in urological procedures despite the low susceptibility against this antibiotic in cultured E coli, P. aeruginosa, and K. pneumonia. The aminoglycosides have relatively good activity and have been suggested in several guidelines for urologic procedures, such as prostate and urinary tract stone procedures. It is crucial to consider the incision site, type of procedure, and bacterial profile in the hospital to propose antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines.

Evaluation of Antibody Response and Adverse Effects following Heterologous COVID-19 Vaccine Booster with mRNA Vaccine among Healthcare Workers in Indonesia.

Background: The administration of the third (or booster) dose of COVID-19 vaccine is important in maintaining protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection or the severity of the disease. In Indonesia, health care workers (HCWs) are among the first to receive a booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. In this study, we evaluated the antibody response and adverse events following heterologous booster vaccine using mRNA-1273 among HCWs that were fully vaccinated with inactivated viral vaccine as the priming doses. Methods: 75 HCWs at Dr. Soetomo General Hospital in Surabaya, Indonesia, participated in this study. The level of antibody against the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain was analyzed at 1, 3, and 5 months following the second priming dose and at 1, 3, and 5 months after the booster dose. Results: We found a significantly higher level of antibody response in subjects receiving a booster dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine compared to those receiving an inactivated viral vaccine as a booster. Interestingly, participants with hypertension and a history of diabetes mellitus showed a lower antibody response following the booster dose. There was a higher frequency of adverse events following injection with the mRNA-1273 vaccine compared to the inactivated viral vaccine, although the overall adverse events were considered minor. Conclusions: A heterologous booster dose using mRNA vaccine resulted in a high antibody response; however, participants with hypertension and diabetes mellitus displayed a lower antibody response.

Duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA Shedding Is Significantly Influenced by Disease Severity, Bilateral Pulmonary Infiltrates, Antibiotic Treatment, and Diabetic Status: Consideration for Isolation Period.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ribonucleic acid (RNA) shedding is an important parameter for determining the optimal length of isolation period required for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients. However, the clinical (i.e., patient and disease) characteristics that could influence this parameter have yet to be determined. In this study, we aim to explore the potential associations between several clinical features and the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding in patients hospitalized with COVID-19. A retrospective cohort study involving 162 patients hospitalized for COVID-19 in a tertiary referral teaching hospital in Indonesia was performed from June to December 2021. Patients were grouped based on the mean duration of viral shedding and were compared based on several clinical characteristics (e.g., age, sex, comorbidities, COVID-19 symptoms, severity, and therapies). Subsequently, clinical factors potentially associated with the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding were further assessed using multivariate logistic regression analysis. As a result, the mean duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding was found to be 13 ± 8.44 days. In patients with diabetes mellitus (without chronic complications) or hypertension, the duration of viral shedding was significantly prolonged (≥13 days; p = 0.001 and p = 0.029, respectively). Furthermore, patients with dyspnea displayed viral shedding for longer durations (p = 0.011). The multivariate logistic regression analysis reveals that independent risk factors associated with the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding include disease severity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.94; 95% CI = 1.36-6.44), bilateral lung infiltrates (aOR = 2.79; 95% CI = 1.14-6.84), diabetes mellitus (aOR = 2.17; 95% CI = 1.02-4.63), and antibiotic treatment (aOR = 3.66; 95% CI = 1.74-7.71). In summary, several clinical factors are linked with the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding. Disease severity is positively associated with the duration of viral shedding, while bilateral lung infiltrates, diabetes mellitus, and antibiotic treatment are negatively linked with the duration of viral shedding. Overall, our findings suggest the need to consider different isolation period estimations for specific clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 that affect the duration of SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding.

Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital workers before and after vaccination programme in East Java, Indonesia-A retrospective cohort study.

Background: The incidence of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) among healthcare workers (HCWs) is widespread. It is important to understand COVID-19 characteristics among HCWs before and after vaccination. We evaluated the incidence of COVID-19 among HCWs in East Java, Indonesia comparing the characteristics of the disease between the pre- vs post-vaccination periods. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted among HCWs in two major hospitals in East Java, Indonesia, between April 01, 2020, and Oct 31, 2021. All HCWs were offered vaccination with inactivated viral vaccine (CoronaVac) from Jan 15, 2021. Therefore, we divided the time of the study into the pre-vaccination period (between April 01, 2020, and Jan 14, 2021) and post-vaccination period (between Jan 15 and Oct 31, 2021). We then compared the pattern of COVID-19 infections, and hospitalisations between these periods. Findings: A total of 434 (15.1%) and 649 (22.6%) SARS-CoV-2 infections were reported among study participants (n = 2878) during the pre-vaccination and post-vaccination periods, respectively. The vaccine effectiveness was 73.3% during the first 3-4 months after vaccination but this decreased to 17.6% at 6-7 months after vaccination, which coincided with the emergence of the delta variant. The overall hospitalisation rate was reduced from 23.5% in the pre-vaccination period to 14.3% in the post-vaccination period. Hypertension appeared to be the strongest risk factor affecting hospitalisation in the pre-vaccination period. However, the risk due to hypertension was reduced in the post-vaccination period. Interpretation: The risk to contract COVID-19 remains high among HCWs in East Java, Indonesia. Vaccination is important to reduce infection and hospitalisation. It is essentially important to evaluate the characteristics of COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, the impact of co-morbidities and vaccine effectiveness in order to improve the measures applied in protecting HCWs during the pandemic. Funding: Mandate Research Grant No:1043/UN3.15/PT/2021, Universitas Airlangga, Indonesia.

Markers of Renal Complications in Beta Thalassemia Patients with Iron Overload Receiving Chelation Agent Therapy: A Systematic Review.

Objective: The emerging renal complications in beta-thalassemia patients have raised the global exchange of views. Despite better survival due to blood transfusion and iron chelation therapy, the previously unrecognized renal complication remain a burden of disease affecting this population -the primary concern on how iron overload and chelation therapy correlated with renal impairment is still controversial. Early detection and diagnosis is crucial in preventing further kidney damage. Therefore, a systematic review was performed to identify markers of kidney complications in beta thalassemia patients with iron overload receiving chelation therapy. Methods: Searches of PubMed, Scopus, Science Direct, and Web of Science were conducted according to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) to identify studies of literature reporting renal outcome in ß-TM patients with iron overload and receiving chelation therapy. The eligible 17 studies were obtained. Results: uNGAL/NGAL, uNAG/NAG, uKIM-1 are markers that can be used as predictor of renal tubular damage in early renal complications, while Cystatin C and uß2MG showed further damage at the glomerular level. Discussion and Conclusion: The renal complication in beta-thalassemia patients with iron overload receiving chelating agent therapy may progress to kidney disease. Early detection using accurate biological markers is a substantial issue that deserves further evaluation to determine prevention and management.

Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit.

Introduction: Various mortality predictive score models for coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) have been deliberated. We studied how sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II), and new early warning signs (NEWS-2) scores estimate mortality in COVID-19 patients. Materials and methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study of 53 patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19. We calculated qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 on initial admission and re-evaluated on day 5. We performed logistic regression analysis to differentiate the predictors of qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on mortality. Result: qSOFA, SOFA, APACHE II, and NEWS-2 scores on day 5 exhibited a difference between survivors and nonsurvivors (p <0.05), also between ICU and non-ICU admission (p <0.05). The initial NEWS-2 revealed a higher AUC value than the qSOFA, APACHE II, and SOFA score in estimating mortality (0.867; 0.83; 0.822; 0.794). In ICU, APACHE II score revealed a higher AUC value than the SOFA, NEWS-2, and qSOFA score (0.853; 0.832; 0.813; 0.809). Concurrently, evaluation on day 5 showed that qSOFA AUC had higher scores than the NEWS-2, APACHE II, and SOFA (0.979; 0.965; 0.939; 0.933) in predicting mortality, while SOFA and APACHE II AUC were higher in ICU admission than NEWS-2 and qSOFA (0.968; 0.964; 0.939; 0.934). According to the cutoff score, APACHE II on day 5 revealed the highest sensitivity and specificity in predicting the mortality (sensitivity 95.7%, specificity 86.7%). Conclusion: All scores signify good predictive values on COVID-19 patients mortality following the evaluation on the day 5. Nonetheless, APACHE-II appears to be the best at predicting mortality and ICU admission rate. How to cite this article: Asmarawati TP, Suryantoro SD, Rosyid AN, Marfiani E, Windradi C, Mahdi BA, et al. Predictive Value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, and New Early Warning Signs Scores Estimate Mortality of COVID-19 Patients Requiring Intensive Care Unit. Indian J Crit Care Med 2022;26(4):464-471.

Prognosticating 2-Year Survival Rate of Breast Cancer Patients Through Plasma miRNA-21 and Other Associating Factors.

Background: miRNA-21, one of breast cancer (BC) predictive markers, is now gaining cardinal attention from researchers worldwide to evaluate BC patients' survival rate. However, cancer staging, hormonal status, and other BC markers still have to be discussed. We aim to determine the relationship between miRNA-21 and associating factors such as BC staging, other tumor markers, and hormonal status to predict the 2-year survival rate of BC patients. Methods: We conducted a prospective cohort study on 49 BC patients (26 early stage, 23 advanced stage). Apart from cancer staging, we also examined CEA, Ca15-3, and hormonal status (ER, PR, Her2) and correlated them with miRNA-21 to predict 2-year survival rate. We did bivariate, multivariate, and survival analyses to determine the link between miRNA-21 and those factors to prognosticate on 2-year survival rate. Results: There are significances between advanced and loco-regional stage (p < 0.001); high and low miRNA-21 (p = 0.002) and CA 15-3 (p = 0.001), and low survival rate in patients with ER/PR-Her2- status (p=0.0015). Cox proportional hazard showed miRNA-21 (Adjusted HR 1.41; 95% CI = 1.205-1.632), cancer stage (Adjusted HR 9.5; 95% CI = 1.378-20.683), and CA15-3 (Adjusted HR 4.64; 95% CI = 1.548-13.931) affected patients' mortality within 2 years. Conclusion: Low two-year survival rate depends on miRNA-21, cancer stage, CA15-3, and ER/PR-Her2-. Cancer stage is robustly associated with miRNA-21 in predicting 2-year survival rate.

The clinical impact of bacterial co-infection among moderate, severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients in the second referral hospital in Surabaya.

Background: Data on the prevalence of bacterial co-infections among COVID-19 patients are limited, especially in our country, Indonesia. We aimed to assess the rate of bacterial co-infections in hospitalized COVID-19 patients and report the most common microorganisms involved and the antibiotic use in these patients. Methods: This study is a retrospective cohort study, among COVID-19 adult patients admitted to Universitas Airlangga Hospital Surabaya from 14 March-30 September 2020. The bacterial infection is defined based on clinical assessment, laboratory parameters, and microbiology results. Results: A total of 218 patients with moderate to critical illness and confirmed COVID-19 were included in this study. Bacterial infection was confirmed in 43 patients (19.7%). COVID-19 patients with bacterial infections had longer hospital length of stay (17.6 ± 6.62 vs 13.31±7.12), a higher proportion of respiratory failure, intensive care treatment, and ventilator use. COVID-19 patients with bacterial infection had a worse prognosis than those without bacterial infection (p<0.04). The empirical antibiotic was given to 75.2% of the patients. Gram-negative bacteria were commonly found as causative agents in this study (n = 39; 70.37%). Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with bacterial infection have a longer length of stay and worse outcomes. Healthcare-associated infections during intensive care treatment for COVID-19 patients must be carefully prevented.

Optimal use of tocilizumab for severe and critical COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Several studies have revealed the potential use of tocilizumab in treating COVID-19 since no therapy has yet been approved for COVID-19 pneumonia. Tocilizumab may provide clinical benefits for cytokine release syndrome in COVID-19 patients. Methods: We searched for relevant studies in PubMed, Embase, Medline, and Cochrane published from March to October 2020 to evaluate optimal use and baseline criteria for administration of tocilizumab in severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients. Research involving patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, treated with tocilizumab and compared with the standard of care (SOC) was included in this study. We conducted a systematic review to find data about the risks and benefits of tocilizumab and outcomes from different baseline criteria for administration of tocilizumab as a treatment for severe and critically ill COVID-19 patients. Results: A total of 26 studies, consisting of 23 retrospective studies, one prospective study, and two randomised controlled trials with 2112 patients enrolled in the tocilizumab group and 6160 patients in the SOC group, were included in this meta-analysis. Compared to the SOC, tocilizumab showed benefits for all-cause mortality events and a shorter time until death after first intervention but showed no difference in hospital length of stay. Upon subgroup analysis, tocilizumab showed fewer all-cause mortality events when CRP level ≥100 mg/L, P/F ratio 200-300 mmHg, and P/F ratio <200 mmHg. However, tocilizumab showed a longer length of stay when CRP <100 mg/L than the SOC. Conclusion: This meta-analysis demonstrated that tocilizumab has a positive effect on all-cause mortality. It should be cautiously administrated for optimal results and tailored to the patient's eligibility criteria.

Comparison of major bleeding in patients with acute coronary syndrome that underwent coronary artery bypass grafting treated with clopidogrel or ticagrelor: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: There is controversy among physicians regarding the use of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients treated with coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Moreover, the evidence of previous studies about this topic remained inconclusive. This study aimed to perform a meta-analysis concerning the relation between the risk of major bleeding and the use of different DAPT (clopidogrel or ticagrelor) in ACS patients treated with CABG. Methods: A meta-analysis was conducted during March to October 2019. Searches were carried out in Pubmed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science. The predictor covariate in our present study was DAPT (clopidogrel or ticagrelor), and the outcome measure was the risk of major bleeding. Sub-group analysis was also performed, where data were classified into pre- and post-CABG. Furthermore, to determine the correlation and effect estimation, data were analyzed using fixed or random effect model. Results: A total of 13 studies consisting 34,015 patients treated with clopidogrel and 32,661 patients treated with ticagrelor was included in our study. Our pooled calculation revealed that the incidence of major bleeding was not different significantly between clopidogrel and ticagrelor. In pre- and post-CABG sub-groups, our results also found no significant difference in major bleeding incidence between clopidogrel and ticagrelor groups. Conclusions: Our meta-analysis clarifies that clopidogrel, compared to ticagrelor, or vice versa, is not associated with the risk of major bleeding in ACS patients treated with CABG.

Predictors of COVID-19 severity: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: The unpredictability of the progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be attributed to the low precision of the tools used to predict the prognosis of this disease. Objective: To identify the predictors associated with poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Methods: Relevant articles from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science were searched as of April 5, 2020. The quality of the included papers was appraised using the Newcastle-Ottawa scale (NOS). Data of interest were collected and evaluated for their compatibility for the meta-analysis. Cumulative calculations to determine the correlation and effect estimates were performed using the Z test. Results: In total, 19 papers recording 1,934 mild and 1,644 severe cases of COVID-19 were included. Based on the initial evaluation, 62 potential risk factors were identified for the meta-analysis. Several comorbidities, including chronic respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and hypertension were observed more frequent among patients with severe COVID-19 than with the mild ones. Compared to the mild form, severe COVID-19 was associated with symptoms such as dyspnea, anorexia, fatigue, increased respiratory rate, and high systolic blood pressure. Lower levels of lymphocytes and hemoglobin; elevated levels of leukocytes, aspartate aminotransferase, alanine aminotransferase, blood creatinine, blood urea nitrogen, high-sensitivity troponin, creatine kinase, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, interleukin 6, D-dimer, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, and procalcitonin; and a high erythrocyte sedimentation rate were also associated with severe COVID-19. Conclusion: More than 30 risk factors are associated with a higher risk of severe COVID-19. These may serve as useful baseline parameters in the development of prediction tools for COVID-19 prognosis.