The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.

Environmental pathogen surveillance is a sensitive tool that can detect early-stage outbreaks, and it is being used to track poliovirus and other pathogens. However, interpretation of longitudinal environmental surveillance signals is difficult because the relationship between infection incidence and viral load in wastewater depends on time-varying shedding intensity. We developed a mathematical model of time-varying poliovirus shedding intensity consistent with expert opinion across a range of immunization states. Incorporating this shedding model into an infectious disease transmission model, we analysed quantitative, polymerase chain reaction data from seven sites during the 2013 Israeli poliovirus outbreak. Compared to a constant shedding model, our time-varying shedding model estimated a slower peak (four weeks later), with more of the population reached by a vaccination campaign before infection and a lower cumulative incidence. We also estimated the population shed virus for an average of 29 days (95% CI 28-31), longer than expert opinion had suggested for a population that was purported to have received three or more inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) doses. One explanation is that IPV may not substantially affect shedding duration. Using realistic models of time-varying shedding coupled with longitudinal environmental surveillance may improve our understanding of outbreak dynamics of poliovirus, SARS-CoV-2, or other pathogens.

Inferring Numbers of Wild Poliovirus Excretors Using Quantitative Environmental Surveillance.

Response to and monitoring of viral outbreaks can be efficiently focused when rapid, quantitative, kinetic information provides the location and the number of infected individuals. Environmental surveillance traditionally provides information on location of populations with contagious, infected individuals since infectious poliovirus is excreted whether infections are asymptomatic or symptomatic. Here, we describe development of rapid (1 week turnaround time, TAT), quantitative RT-PCR of poliovirus RNA extracted directly from concentrated environmental surveillance samples to infer the number of infected individuals excreting poliovirus. The quantitation method was validated using data from vaccination with bivalent oral polio vaccine (bOPV). The method was then applied to infer the weekly number of excreters in a large, sustained, asymptomatic outbreak of wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel (2013) in a population where >90% of the individuals received three doses of inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Evidence-based intervention strategies were based on the short TAT for direct quantitative detection. Furthermore, a TAT shorter than the duration of poliovirus excretion allowed resampling of infected individuals. Finally, the method documented absence of infections after successful intervention of the asymptomatic outbreak. The methodologies described here can be applied to outbreaks of other excreted viruses such as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), where there are (1) significant numbers of asymptomatic infections; (2) long incubation times during which infectious virus is excreted; and (3) limited resources, facilities, and manpower that restrict the number of individuals who can be tested and re-tested.

Epidemiology of the silent polio outbreak in Rahat, Israel, based on modeling of environmental surveillance data.

Israel experienced an outbreak of wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) in 2013-2014, detected through environmental surveillance of the sewage system. No cases of acute flaccid paralysis were reported, and the epidemic subsided after a bivalent oral polio vaccination (bOPV) campaign. As we approach global eradication, polio will increasingly be detected only through environmental surveillance. We developed a framework to convert quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) cycle threshold data into scaled WPV1 and OPV1 concentrations for inference within a deterministic, compartmental infectious disease transmission model. We used this approach to estimate the epidemic curve and transmission dynamics, as well as assess alternate vaccination scenarios. Our analysis estimates the outbreak peaked in late June, much earlier than previous estimates derived from analysis of stool samples, although the exact epidemic trajectory remains uncertain. We estimate the basic reproduction number was 1.62 (95% CI 1.04-2.02). Model estimates indicate that 59% (95% CI 9-77%) of susceptible individuals (primarily children under 10 years old) were infected with WPV1 over a little more than six months, mostly before the vaccination campaign onset, and that the vaccination campaign averted 10% (95% CI 1-24%) of WPV1 infections. As we approach global polio eradication, environmental monitoring with qPCR can be used as a highly sensitive method to enhance disease surveillance. Our analytic approach brings public health relevance to environmental data that, if systematically collected, can guide eradication efforts.

A novel magnetic beads-based method for polioviral concentration from environmental samples.

Environmental surveillance (EnvS)2 is an important tool for monitoring the presence of poliovirus in endemic and poliovirus free regions. Unlike acute flaccid paralysis (AFP)3 surveillance, EnvS can monitor large populations using small numbers of samples and detect the introduction of poliovirus even before the appearance of AFP cases. Early detection and timely response can prevent the onset of poliovirus associated AFP, as was demonstrated by silent poliovirus transmission in Israel in 2013. Although EnvS is currently recommended as supplementary to AFP surveillance, it is limited to laboratories with equipment for poliovirus concentration and to regions where samples can be easily transported under temperature controlled conditions to such facilities. However the highest risk of poliovirus re-emergence is in developing countries where such conditions do not exist. We developed and evaluated an affinity purification method using antibody or poliovirus receptor (CD155) presenting bacteriophage covered magnetic beads for poliovirus concentration. This method requires only simple, inexpensive and portable equipment. Though tested only on Sabin 1 spiked sewage samples it provided better recovery than our current polyethylene glycol (PEG)4/NaCl- based concentration method. On site use of this method might facilitate EnvS in currently inaccessible remote regions by significantly reducing the volume of sample that needs to be transported back to the laboratory under temperature-controlled conditions5.

Quantitative multiplex one-step RT-PCR assay for identification and quantitation of Sabin strains of poliovirus in clinical and environmental specimens.

An improved quantitative multiplex one-step RT-PCR (qmosRT-PCR) for simultaneous identification and quantitation of all three serotypes of poliovirus is described. It is based on using serotype-specific primers and fluorescent TaqMan oligonucleotide probes. The assay can be used for high-throughput screening of samples for the presence of poliovirus, poliovirus surveillance and for evaluation of virus shedding by vaccine recipients in clinical trials to assess mucosal immunity. It could replace conventional methods based on cell culture virus isolation followed by serotyping. The assay takes only few hours, and was found to be simple, specific, sensitive and has large quantitative linearity range. In addition, the method could be used as readout in PCR-based poliovirus titration and neutralization assays.

Estimation of polio infection prevalence from environmental surveillance data.

A major obstacle to eradicating polio is that poliovirus from endemic countries can be reintroduced to polio-free countries. Environmental surveillance (ES) can detect poliovirus from sewage or wastewaters samples, even in the absence of patients with paralysis. ES is underused, in part because its sensitivity is unknown. We used two unique data sets collected during a natural experiment provided by the 2013 polio outbreak in Israel: ES data from different locations and records of supplemental immunization with the live vaccine. Data from the intersecting population between the two data sets (covering more than 63,000 people) yielded a dose-dependent relationship between the number of poliovirus shedders and the amount of poliovirus in sewage. Using a mixed-effects linear regression analysis of these data, we developed several quantitative tools, such as (i) ascertainment of the number of infected individuals from ES data for application during future epidemics elsewhere, (ii) evaluation of the sensitivity of ES, and (iii) determination of the confidence level of the termination of poliovirus circulation after an outbreak. These results will be valuable in monitoring future outbreaks with ES, and this approach could be used to certify poliovirus elimination or to validate the need for more containment efforts.

Human enterovirus D68 in clinical and sewage samples in Israel.

BACKGROUND: Since mid-August 2014, North America experienced a wide outbreak of Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) associated with severe respiratory illness in children. Several other countries also reported cases of EV-D68 in 2014. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether EV-D68 circulated in Israel in 2014, caused severe respiratory illness in children and was the causative agent of Acute Flaccid Paralysis. STUDY DESIGN: Archived clinical respiratory samples from a cohort of 710 hospitalized pediatric patient's (<10years old) with respiratory illness were screened for clade B specific EV-D68 by real-time PCR. The patients were seen at four medical centers covering the entire country between August and November 2014. We also evaluated 49 patient stool samples from 26 AFP cases during 2014 for presence of EV-D68. In addition, RNA from sewage samples collected throughout Israel during the same study period was also tested for EV-D68. Partial VP1 sequencing was performed on all positive samples. RESULTS: Of the 710 clinical samples evaluated, 7 (1%) were positive for EV-D68. Two patients were from the central part of Israel, while the rest was from the southern part. The majority of the patients did not have any underlying disease. Not only that, but, none of the 26 suspected AFP cases had EV-D68 nucleic acid in their stool samples. EV-D68 RNA was detected in 9 out of 93 sewage samples, mainly from Southern Israel. Sequence analysis of EV-D68 VP1 gene from both sewage and clinical samples indicated that the Israeli EV-D68 RNA belonged to Clade B which was genetically similar to 2014 circulating European and North American EV-D68 virus. CONCLUSIONS: EV-D68 circulated in Israel during the 2014 summer-fall season and caused hospitalization of a small percent of the patients with respiratory illness.

Population Screening Using Sewage Reveals Pan-Resistant Bacteria in Hospital and Community Samples.

The presence of pan-resistant bacteria worldwide possesses a threat to global health. It is difficult to evaluate the extent of carriage of resistant bacteria in the population. Sewage sampling is a possible way to monitor populations. We evaluated the presence of pan-resistant bacteria in Israeli sewage collected from all over Israel, by modifying the pour plate method for heterotrophic plate count technique using commercial selective agar plates. This method enables convenient and fast sewage sampling and detection. We found that sewage in Israel contains multiple pan-resistant bacteria including carbapenemase resistant Enterobacteriacae carrying blaKPC and blaNDM-1, MRSA and VRE. blaKPC carrying Klebsiella pneumonia and Enterobacter cloacae were the most common Enterobacteriacae drug resistant bacteria found in the sewage locations we sampled. Klebsiella pneumonia, Enterobacter spp., Escherichia coli and Citrobacter spp. were the 4 main CRE isolated from Israeli sewage and also from clinical samples in our clinical microbiology laboratory. Hospitals and Community sewage had similar percentage of positive samplings for blaKPC and blaNDM-1. VRE was found to be more abundant in sewage in Israel than MRSA but there were more locations positive for MRSA and VRE bacteria in Hospital sewage than in the Community. Therefore, our upgrade of the pour plate method for heterotrophic plate count technique using commercial selective agar plates can be a useful tool for routine screening and monitoring of the population for pan-resistant bacteria using sewage.

Hepatitis E Virus Genotype 3 in Sewage and Genotype 1 in Acute Hepatitis Cases, Israel.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is an emerging infectious agent in developed countries. HEV genotypes 1 (G1) and 3 (G3) have been identified in environmental and clinical samples in Europe. In Israel, the overall prevalence of anti-HEV IgG antibodies was found to be 10.6%; however, reports of HEV infection are scarce. In this study, the presence of HEV in Israel was investigated using 169 sewage samples from 32 treatment facilities and 49 samples from acute hepatitis patients, all collected between 2013 and 2015. Fourteen sewage samples, from Haifa (11/18 samples), Tel Aviv (2/29 samples), and Beer Sheva (1/17 samples), regions with good sanitary conditions and middle-high socioeconomic populations, were HEV positive. Among the patient samples, 6.1% (3/49) were HEV positive, all returning travelers from India. Genotype analysis revealed G1 HEV in patients and G3 HEV sequences in sewage. Evidence that HEV could be establishing itself in our region may justify more active surveillance to monitor its spread.

Molecular Characterization of Polio from Environmental Samples: ISSP, The Israeli Sewage Surveillance Protocol.

Polioviruses are enteric viruses that cause paralytic poliomyelitis in less than 0.5 % of infections and are asymptomatic in >90 % infections of naïve hosts. Environmental surveillance monitors polio in populations rather than in individuals. When this very low morbidity to infection ratio, drops drastically in highly vaccinated populations, environmental surveillance employing manual or automatic sampling coupled with molecular analysis carried out in well-equipped central laboratories becomes the surveillance method of choice since polioviruses are excreted by infected individuals regardless of whether or not the infection is symptomatic. This chapter describes a high throughput rapid turn-around time method for molecular characterization of polioviruses from sewage. It is presented in five modules: (1) Sewage collection and concentration of the viruses in the sewage; (2) Cell cultures for identification of virus in the concentrated sewage; (3) Nucleic acid extractions directly from sewage and from tissue cultures infected with aliquots of concentrated sewage; (4) Nucleic Acid Amplification for poliovirus serotype identification and intratypic differentiation (discriminating wild and vaccine derived polioviruses form vaccine strains); and (5) Molecular characterization of viral RNA by qRT-PCR, TR-PCR, and Sequence analysis. Monitoring silent or symptomatic transmission of vaccine-derived polioviruses or wild polioviruses is critical for the endgame of poliovirus eradication. We present methods for adapting standard kits and validating the changes for this purpose based on experience gained during the recent introduction and sustained transmission of a wild type 1 poliovirus in Israel in 2013 in a population with an initial IPV vaccine coverage >90 %.

The Israeli public health response to wild poliovirus importation.

In 2013, a silent wild poliovirus type 1 importation and sustained transmission event occurred in southern Israel. With the aim of preventing clinical poliomyelitis and ensuring virus re-elimination, the public health response to the importation event included intensification of clinical and environmental surveillance activities, enhancement of vaccine coverage, and supplemental immunisation with a bivalent oral polio vaccine against wild poliovirus types 1 and 3. A national campaign launched in August, 2013, resulted in vaccination of 943,587 children younger than 10 years (79% of the eligible target population). Expanded environmental surveillance (roughly 80% population coverage) documented a gradual disappearance of wild poliovirus type 1 in the country from September, 2013, to April, 2014. No paralytic poliomyelitis case was detected. A prompt extensive and coordinated national public health response, implemented on the basis of evidence-based decision making, successfully contained this serious importation and sustained transmission event of wild poliovirus to Israel. On April 28, 2015, WHO officially declared Israel as a polio-free country.

Genetic analysis and characterization of wild poliovirus type 1 during sustained transmission in a population with >95% vaccine coverage, Israel 2013.

BACKGROUND: Israel has >95% polio vaccine coverage with the last 9 birth cohorts immunized exclusively with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). Using acute flaccid paralysis and routine, monthly countrywide environmental surveillance, no wild poliovirus circulation was detected between 1989 and February 2013, after which wild type 1 polioviruses South Asia genotype (WPV1-SOAS) have persistently circulated in southern Israel and intermittently in other areas without any paralytic cases as determined by intensified surveillance of environmental and human samples. We aimed to characterize antigenic and neurovirulence properties of WPV1-SOAS silently circulating in a highly vaccinated population. METHODS: WPV1-SOAS capsid genes from environmental and stool surveillance isolates were sequenced, their neurovirulence was determined using transgenic mouse expressing the human poliovirus receptor (Tg21-PVR) mice, and their antigenicity was characterized by in vitro neutralization using human sera, epitope-specific monoclonal murine anti-oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) antibodies, and sera from IPV-immunized rats and mice. RESULTS: WPV1 amino acid sequences in neutralizing epitopes varied from Sabin 1 and Mahoney, with little variation among WPV1 isolates. Neutralization by monoclonal antibodies against 3 of 4 OPV epitopes was lost. Three-fold lower geometric mean titers (Z = -4.018; P < .001, Wilcoxon signed-rank test) against WPV1 than against Mahoney in human serum correlated with 4- to 6-fold lower neutralization titers in serum from IPV-immunized rats and mice. WPV1-SOAS isolates were neurovirulent (50% intramuscular paralytic dose in Tg21-PVR mice: log10(7.0)). IPV-immunized mice were protected against WPV1-induced paralysis. CONCLUSIONS: Phenotypic and antigenic profile changes of WPV1-SOAS may have contributed to the intense silent transmission, whereas the reduced neurovirulence may have contributed to the absence of paralytic cases in the background of high population immunity.

Laboratory challenges in response to silent introduction and sustained transmission of wild poliovirus type 1 in Israel during 2013.

Wild poliovirus type 1 (WPV1) introduction into southern Israel in early 2013 was detected by routine environmental surveillance. The virus was identified genetically as related to the South Asian (SOAS) R3A lineage endemic to Pakistan in 2012. Intensified, high-throughput environmental surveillance using advanced molecular methods played a critical role in documenting and locating sustained transmission throughout 2013 and early 2014 in the absence of any acute flaccid paralysis. It guided the public health responses, including stool-based surveillance and serosurveys, to determine the point prevalence in silent excretors and measured the effect of vaccination campaigns with inactivated polio vaccine and bivalent oral polio vaccine on stopping transmission.

Antiviral activity of 3(2H)- and 6-chloro-3(2H)-isoflavenes against highly diverged, neurovirulent vaccine-derived, type2 poliovirus sewage isolates.

BACKGROUND: Substituted flavanoids interfere with uncoating of Enteroviruses including Sabin-2 polio vaccine strains. However flavanoid resistant and dependent, type-2 polio vaccine strains (minimally-diverged), emerged during in vitro infections. Between 1998-2009, highly-diverged (8 to >15%) type-2, aVDPV(2)s, from two unrelated persistent infections were periodically isolated from Israeli sewage. AIM: To determine whether highly evolved aVDPV(2)s derived from persistent infections retained sensitivity to isoflavenes. METHODS: Sabin-2 and ten aVDPV(2) isolates from two independent Israeli sources were titered on HEp2C cells in the presence and absence of 3(2H)- Isoflavene and 6-chloro-3(2H)-Isoflavene. Neurovirulence of nine aVDPV(2)s was measured in PVR-Tg-21 transgenic mice. Differences were related to unique amino acid substitutions within capsid proteins. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The presence of either flavanoid inhibited viral titers of Sabin-2 and nine of ten aVDPV(2)s by one to two log(10). The tenth aVDPV(2), which had unique amino acid substitution distant from the isoflavene-binding pocket but clustered at the three- and five-fold axies of symmetry between capsomeres, was unaffected by both flavanoids. Genotypic neurovirulence attenuation sites in the 5'UTR and VP1 reverted in all aVDPV(2)s and all reacquired a full neurovirulent phenotype except one with amino acid substitutions flanking the VP1 site. CONCLUSION: Both isoflavenes worked equally well against Sabin 2 and most of the highly-diverged, Israeli, aVDPV(2)s isolates. Thus, functionality of the hydrophobic pocket may be unaffected by selective pressures exerted during persistent poliovirus infections. Amino acid substitutions at sites remote from the drug-binding pocket and adjacent to a neurovirulence attenuation site may influence flavanoid antiviral activity, and neurovirulence, respectively.

Minimizing health risks during secondary effluent application via subsurface drip irrigation.

Health risks posed on consumers due to the use of agricultural products irrigated with reclaimed wastewater were assessed by numerical simulation. The analysis is based on defining of an Exposure Model (EM) which takes into account several parameters: (i) the quality of the applied wastewater, (ii) the irrigation method, (iii) the elapsed times between irrigation, harvest, and product consumption, and; (iv) the consumers' habits. The exposure model is used for numerical simulation of human consumers' risks by running the Monte Carlo simulation method. Although some deviations in the numerical simulation which are probably due to uncertainty (impreciseness in quality of input data) and variability due to diversity among populations reasonable results were accepted. Accordingly, there is a several orders of magnitude difference in the risk of infection between the different exposure scenarios with the same water quality. The variability indicates the need for setting risk-based criteria for wastewater reclamation, including the application method and environmental conditions, rather than single water quality guidelines. Extra data is required to decrease uncertainty in the risk assessment. Future research needs to include definite acceptable risk criteria, more accurate dose-response modeling, information regarding pathogen survival in treated wastewater, additional data related to the passage of pathogens into and in the plants during irrigation, and information referring to the consuming habits of the human community.

Membrane technology for sustainable treated wastewater reuse: agricultural, environmental and hydrological considerations.

Field experiments were conducted in agricultural fields in which secondary wastewater of the City of Arad (Israel) is reused for irrigation. For sustainable agricultural production and safe groundwater recharge the secondary effluent is further polished by a combined two-stage membrane pilot system. The pilot membrane system consists of two main in row stages: Ultrafiltration (UF) and Reverse Osmosis (RO). The UF stage is efficient in the removal of the pathogens and suspended organic matter while the successive RO stage provides safe removal of the dissolved solids (salinity). Effluents of various qualities were applied for agricultural irrigation along with continuous monitoring of the membrane system performance. Best agricultural yields were obtained when applying effluent having minimal content of dissolved solids (after the RO stage) as compared with secondary effluent without any further treatment and extended storage. In regions with shallow groundwater reduced soil salinity in the upper productive layers, maintained by extra membrane treatment, will guarantee minimal dissolved solids migration to the aquifers and minimize salinisation processes.

Neurovirulent vaccine-derived polioviruses in sewage from highly immune populations.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) have caused poliomyelitis outbreaks in communities with sub-optimal vaccination. Israeli environmental surveillance of sewage from populations with high (>95%) documented vaccine coverage of confirmed efficacy identified two separate evolutionary clusters of VDPVs: Group 1 (1998-2005, one system, population 1.6x10(6)) and Group 2 (2006, 2 systems, populations 0.7x10(6) and 5x10(4)). PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Molecular analyses support evolution of nine Group 1 VDPVs along five different lineages, starting from a common ancestral type 2 vaccine-derived Sabin-2/Sabin-1 recombinant strain, and independent evolution of three Group 2 VDPVs along one lineage starting from a different recombinant strain. The primary evidence for two independent origins was based on comparison of unique recombination fingerprints, the number and distribution of identical substitutions, and evolutionary rates. Geometric mean titers of neutralizing antibodies against Group 1 VDPVs were significantly lower than against vaccine strains in all age-group cohorts tested. All individuals had neutralizing titers >1:8 against these VDPVs except 7% of the 20-50 year cohort. Group 1 VDPVs were highly neurovirulent in a transgenic mouse model. Intermediate levels of protective immunity against Group 2 VDPVs correlated with fewer (5.0+1.0) amino acid substitutions in neutralizing antigenic sites than in Group 1 VDPV's (12.1+/-1.5). SIGNIFICANCE: VDPVs that revert from live oral attenuated vaccines and reacquire characteristics of wild-type polioviruses not only threaten populations with poor immune coverage, but are also a potential source for re-introduction of poliomyelitis into highly immune populations through older individuals with waning immunity. The presence of two independently evolved groups of VDPVs in Israel and the growing number of reports of environmental VDPV elsewhere make it imperative to determine the global frequency of environmental VDPV. Our study underscores the importance of the environmental surveillance and the need to reconsider the global strategies for polio eradication and the proposed cessation of vaccination.