A hybrid forecasting approach for China's national carbon emission allowance prices with balanced accuracy and interpretability.

A significant milestone in China's carbon market was reached with the official launch and operation of the National Carbon Emission Trading Market. The accurate prediction of the carbon price in this market is crucial for the government to formulate scientific policies regarding the carbon market and for companies to participate effectively. Nevertheless, it remains challenging to accurately predict price fluctuations in the carbon market because of the volatility and instability caused by several complex factors. This paper proposes a new carbon price forecasting framework that considers the potential factors influencing national carbon prices, including data decomposition and reconstruction techniques, feature selection techniques, machine learning forecasting techniques for intelligent optimisation, and research on model interpretability. This comprehensive framework aims to improve the accuracy and understandability of carbon price projections to respond better to the complexity and uncertainty of carbon markets. The results indicate that (1) the hybrid forecasting framework is highly accurate in forecasting national carbon market prices and far superior to other comparative models; (2) the factors driving national carbon prices vary according to the time scale. High-frequency series are sensitive to short-term economic and energy market indicators. Medium- and low-frequency series are more susceptible to financial markets and long-term economic conditions than high-frequency series. This study provides insights into the factors affecting China's national carbon market price and serves as a reference for companies and governments to develop carbon price forecasting tools.

Efficacy of a mixed preparation containing piperine, capsaicin and curcumin in the treatment of alopecia areata.

BACKGROUND: Alopecia areata is a common non-scarring alopecia, mainly manifested as sudden localized patchy alopecia. It is currently believed to be related to autoimmune, genetic, emotional stress, and endocrine factors. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the mixed preparation of piperine, capsaicin, and curcumin on alopecia areata treatment. METHODS: Sixty patients were enrolled in this study and divided into 2 groups randomly: topical treated with the mixed preparation (case) twice daily and 5%minoxidil (control) once daily for 3 months. The degree of hair loss was assessed by SALT and dermoscopy. RESULTS: On the completion of the study, compared with baseline, statistically significant regrowth occurred in both groups (p < 0.05). The mean SALT scores and hair follicle status under trichoscopy at baseline and at the end of 12 weeks in the mixed preparation group and in the minoxidil group were comparable, respectively. The effective rate of mixed preparation group was 63.33% and minoxidil group was 70%. Adverse symptoms were temporary and no serious adverse event occurred. CONCLUSION: Based on our findings, the mixed preparation of piperine, capsaicin, and curcumin is effective in treating alopecia areata, but it has not been shown to be superior to minoxidil in short-term therapy.

Hydrodynamics Regulate Longitudinal Plankton Community Structure in an Alpine Cascade Reservoir System.

Previous studies report significant changes on biotic communities caused by cascade reservoir construction. However, factors regulating the spatial-temporal plankton patterns in alpine cascade reservoir systems have not been fully explored. The current study explored effects of environmental factors on the longitudinal plankton patterns, through a 5-year-long study on the environmental factors and communities of phytoplankton and zooplankton in an alpine cascade reservoir system located upstream of Yellow River region. The findings showed that phytoplankton and zooplankton species numbers in the studied cascade reservoir system were mainly regulated by the hydrological regime, whereas nutrient conditions did not significantly affect the number of species. Abundance and biovolume of phytoplankton in cascade reservoirs were modulated by the hydrological regime and nutrient conditions. The drainage rate, N:P ratio, and sediment content in cascade reservoirs were negatively correlated with abundance and biovolume of phytoplankton. Abundance and biovolume of zooplankton were not significantly correlated with the hydrological regime but showed a strong positive correlation with nutrient conditions in cascade reservoirs. Shannon-Wiener index (H') and the Pielou index (J) of phytoplankton were mainly regulated by the hydrological regime factors, such as drainage rate and sediment content in cascade reservoirs. However, temperature and nutrient conditions were the main factors that regulated the Shannon-Wiener index (H') and the Pielou index (J) of zooplankton. Species number, abundance, and biovolume of phytoplankton showed a significant positive correlation with those of zooplankton. Hydrodynamics and nutrient conditions contributed differently in regulating community structure of phytoplankton or zooplankton. These findings provide an understanding of factors that modulate longitudinal plankton community patterns in cascade reservoir systems.

Ferroptosis-Related Gene Signature Predicts the Prognosis of Skin Cutaneous Melanoma and Response to Immunotherapy.

Ferroptosis is a non-apoptotic regulated cell death process, and much research has indicated that ferroptosis can induce the non-apoptotic death of tumor cells. Ferroptosis-related genes are expected to become a biological target for cancer treatment. However, the regulation of ferroptosis-related genes in skin cutaneous melanoma (SKCM) has not been well studied. In the present study, we conducted a systematic analysis of SKCM based on RNA sequencing data and clinical data obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database and the FerrD database. SKCM patients from the GSE78220 and MSKCC cohorts were used for external validation. Applying consensus clustering on RNA sequencing data from TCGA the generated ferroptosis subclasses of SKCM, which were analyzed based on the set of differentially expressed ferroptosis-related genes. Then, a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO)-Cox regression was used to construct an eight gene survival-related linear signature. The median cut-off risk score was used to divide patients into high- and low-risk groups. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve was used to examine the predictive power of the model. The areas under the curve of the signature at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.673, 0.716, and 0.746, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that the prognosis of high-risk patients was worse than that of low-risk patients. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses showed that the risk signature was a robust independent prognostic indicator. By incorporating risk scores with tumor staging, a nomogram was constructed to predict prognostic outcomes for SKCM patients. In addition, the immunological analysis showed different immune cell infiltration patterns. Programmed-death-1 (PD-1) immunotherapy showed more significant benefits in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group. In summary, a model based on ferroptosis-related genes can predict the prognosis of SKCM and could have a potential role in guiding targeted therapy of SKCM.

Variation of biophysical parameters of the skin with age, gender, and lifestyles.

BACKGROUND: Sweet, spicy or greasy food, staying up late, and using electronic products for a long time are common bad habits nowadays. Their role in skin diseases has been paid much attention. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate whether unhealthy lifestyles would affect the skin sebum content, SC hydration, and pH and how do they affect. METHODS: A total of 300 volunteers were enrolled, and a multifunctional skin physiology monitor measured the three skin biophysical properties on the forehead and dorsal hand. Lifestyle factors were evaluated by a self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: Eating oily, sweet, spicy food, and staying up late increased the sebum content of the forehead significantly. Dorsal hand SC hydration was higher in people eating more sweet food and oily food, and forehead SC hydration was higher in people eating more sweet food and go to bed earlier. Eating sweet food could increase pH in both forehead and dorsal hand. The forehead pH decreased in using electronic products over 6 hours a day or staying up late. There are significant differences in sebum, hydration, and pH value among different age groups. In males, the pH was lower than females, but the sebum was higher. CONCLUSION: Sebum content, SC hydration, and pH are affected by unhealthy lifestyles, age, and gender.

Down-regulation of exosomal miR-200c derived from keratinocytes in vitiligo lesions suppresses melanogenesis.

Vitiligo is a refractory disfiguring skin disease. However, the aetiology and pathogenesis of vitiligo have not been fully defined. Previous studies have shown that exosomes from normal human keratinocytes improve melanogenesis by up-regulating the expression of melanogenesis-related proteins. Several microRNAs (miRNAs) have been demonstrated to be effective in modulating melanogenesis via exosomes. In the present study, it was found that the effect of exosomes derived from keratinocytes in vitiligo lesions in regulating melanin synthesis is weakened. Furthermore, miR-200c was detected to be significantly down-regulated in exosomes from keratinocytes in vitiligo lesions. In addition, miR-200c enhanced the expression of melanogenesis-related genes via suppressing SOX1 to activate ß-catenin. In conclusion, our study revealed that the effect of exosomes secreted by keratinocytes in vitiligo lesions exhibited a weaker capacity in promoting melanogenesis of melanocytes. Moreover, the expression of miR-200c, which mediates melanogenesis in exosomes secreted by keratinocytes in vitiligo lesions, is down-regulated, which may be one of the pathogenesis in vitiligo. Therefore, keratinocyte-derived exosomal miR-200c may be a potential target for the treatment of vitiligo.