A Method for Improving the Prediction of Outpatient Visits for Hospital Management: Bayesian Autoregressive Analysis.

The number of outpatient visits is generally influenced by various factors that are difficult to quantify and obtain, resulting in some irregular fluctuations. The traditional statistical methodology seldom considers these uncertainties. Accordingly, this paper presents a Bayesian autoregressive (AR) analysis to propose a forecasting framework to cope with the strict requirements. The AR model was conducted to identify the linear and autocorrelation relationships of historical series, and Bayesian inference was used to correct and optimize the AR model parameters. Posterior distribution of parameters was stably and reliably obtained by Gibbs sampling on the condition of the convergent Markov chain. Meanwhile, the lag orders of the AR model were adjusted based on the series characteristics. To increase the variability and generality of the dataset, the developed Bayesian AR model was evaluated at seven hospitals in China. The results demonstrated that the Bayesian AR model had varying degrees of decline in the MAPE value in the seven sets of experimental data. The reductions ranged from 0.1431% to 0.0342%, indicating effective optimization of the Bayesian inference in the AR model parameters and reflecting the useful correction of the lag order adjustment strategy. The proposed Bayesian AR framework showed high accuracy index and stable prediction accuracy, thereby outperforming the traditional AR model.

Serum iron status and the risk of breast cancer in the European population: a two-sample Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Previous observational studies have provided conflicting results on the association between serum iron status and the risk of breast cancer. Considering the relevance of this relationship to breast cancer prevention, its elucidation is warranted. OBJECT: We used a two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to explore the causal relationship between serum iron status and the risk of breast cancer. METHOD: To select single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that could be used as instrumental variables for iron status, we used the Genetics of Iron Status consortium, which includes 11 discovery and 8 replication cohorts, encompassing 48,972 individuals of European descent. Moreover, we used the OncoArray network to select SNPs that could be considered instrumental variables for the outcome of interest (breast cancer); this dataset included 122,977 individuals of European descent with breast cancer and 105,974 peers without breast cancer. Both conservative (SNPs associated with overall iron status markers) and liberal (SNPs associated with the levels of at least one iron status marker) approaches were used as part of the MR analysis. For the former, we used an inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method, whereas for the latter, we used the IVW, MR-Egger regression, weighted median and simple mode methods. RESULTS: When the conservative approach was used, iron status showed no significant association with the risk of breast cancer or any of its subtypes. However, when the liberal approach was used, transferrin levels were found to be positively associated with the risk of ER-negative breast cancer based on the simple mode method (OR for MR, 1.225; 95% CI, 1.064, 1.410; P = 0.030). Nevertheless, the levels of the other iron status markers showed no association with the risk of breast cancer or its subtypes (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: In our MR study, the liberal approach suggested that changes in the concentration of transferrin could increase the risk of ER-negative breast cancer, although the levels of other iron status markers had no effect on the risk of breast cancer or its subtypes. This should be verified in future studies.

A clinical study of efficacy of polyglycolic acid patch in surgery for pneumothorax:a systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: A polyglycolic acid (PGA) patch is often used in pulmonary bullae resection, but consensus has not been reached on its effect on patient recovery. The aim of the study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of polyglycolic acid for bullectomy. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was performed using ScienceDirect, EMBASE, Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Scopus, and Google Scholar. Clinical trials that compared PGA versus non-PGA for bullectomy were selected. The clinical endpoints included postoperative recurrence, average postoperative air leakage, prolonged air leaks, drainage tube removal time, and postoperative hospital stay. RESULTS: A total of eight articles (1095 patients) were included. Compared to the non-PGA approach, the PGA approach was associated with lower rates of postoperative recurrence (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16 to 0.39, p < 0.00001),) and of prolonged air leaks (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.72, p = 0.0007); a shorter time of drainage tube removal (95% CI: - 1.36 to - 0.13, p = 0.02); The time of average postoperative air leakage, postoperative hospital stay and operative time did not show a significant difference between the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the use of PGA patch might can prevent the postoperative recurrence of spontaneous pneumothorax and decrease the rates of prolonged air leaks. More large-scale, high-quality randomized controlled trials are required to confirm our finding.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery segmentectomy versus lobectomy for stage I non-small cell lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Whether video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery (VATS) segmentectomy and VATS lobectomy provide similar perioperative and oncological outcomes in stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is still controversial. METHODS: Meta-analysis of 12 studies comparing outcomes after VATS lobectomy and VATS segmentectomy for stage I NSCLC. Data were analyzed by the RevMan 5.3 software. RESULTS: Disease-free survival (HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.33, P = 0.39), overall survival (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.38, P = 0.36), postoperative complications (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.75, P = 0.7), intraoperative blood loss (MD = 3.87, 95% CI - 10.21 to 17.94, P = 0.59), operative time (MD = 10.89, 95% CI - 13.04 to 34.82, P = 0.37), air leak > 5 days (OR = 1.20, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.17, P = 0.55), and in-hospital mortality (OR = 1.67, 95% CI 0.39 to 7.16, P = 0.49) were comparable between the groups. Postoperative hospital stay (MD = - 0.69, 95% CI - 1.19 to - 0.19, P = 0.007) and number of dissected lymph nodes (MD = - 6.44, 95%CI - 9.49 to - 3.40, P < 0.0001) were significantly lower in VATS segmentectomy patients. CONCLUSIONS: VATS segmentectomy and VATS lobectomy provide similar oncological and perioperative outcomes for stage I NSCLC patients. This systematic review was registered on PROSPERO and can be accessed at http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?ID = CRD42019133398.

Gram-scale synthesis of nitrogen doped graphene quantum dots for sensitive detection of mercury ions and l-cysteine.

Sensitive and reliable detection of mercury ions (Hg2+) and l-cysteine (l-Cys) is of great significance for toxicology assessment, environmental protection, food analysis and human health. Herein, we present gram-scale synthesis of nitrogen doped graphene quantum dots (N-GQDs) for sensitive detection of Hg2+ and l-Cys. The N-GQDs are one-step synthesized using bottom-up molecular fusion in a hydrothermal process with gram-scale yield at a single run. N-GQDs exhibit good structural characteristics including uniform size (∼2.1 nm), high crystallinity, and single-layered graphene thickness. Successful doping of N atom enables bright blue fluorescence (absolute photoluminescence quantum yield of 24.8%) and provides unique selectivity towards Hg2+. Based on the fluorescence quenching by Hg2+ (turn-off mode), N-GQDs are able to serve as an effective fluorescent probe for sensitive detection of Hg2+ with low limit of detection (19 nM). As l-Cys could recover the fluorescence of N-GQDs quenched by Hg2+, fluorescent detection of l-Cys is also demonstrated using turn-off-on mode.