Estimating the risk of environmental contamination by forest users in African Swine Fever endemic areas.

BACKGROUND: African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly lethal viral disease caused by the African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV), the only virus of the Asfaviridae family, which affects different species of wild and domestic suids, and for which no vaccination or effective medical treatment is currently available. The virus can survive for long periods in the environment, and humans can unintentionally act as vectors through infected fomites, a risk that is linked to the ASF introduction into pig farms. We ran a simulation study, in which we reconstructed the probability process leading to the different forms of human-mediated ASF contamination in ASF endemic areas. We compared the infection risks related to different types of human forest activities and produced estimates of the minimum expected number of human-induced contamination events occurring annually at the scale of some European countries. RESULTS: When analysed on a short temporal scale and in a relatively small spatial context, ASF environmental contamination appeared as a rather unlikely event for most of the simulated forest uses, with contamination probabilities often lower than 0.1%. When scaling up the contamination process to a whole year and to large geographic areas, though, the accumulation of the same forest activities, repeated several times per month within the same patch of forest, produced the expectation that thousands of contamination events would occur each year, with potentially relevant epidemiological consequences. Wild boar supplemental feeding and forest logging emerged as the riskiest activities in terms of contamination probabilities, but risk was highly influenced by the frequency and intensity of the different types of forest use. CONCLUSIONS: The risk of human-mediated ASF environmental contamination should not be disregarded when planning management actions to reduce ASF circulation and prevent its breach into the pig farming system. Supplemental feeding should be strongly reduced or avoided in ASF affected areas. Wild boar hunting, which is often employed as an active management tool in ASF affected areas, should be seen as both a tool for controlling wild boar density and as a potential risk for further contamination. It is essential to implement and enforce strict biosecurity measures for all forest-based human activities in ASF endemic areas.

Simulated African Swine Fever (ASF) virus detection in Italy: average numbers of farms and pigs under restriction.

African swine fever is a devastating contagious viral disease of kept and wild porcine animals that will challenge the Veterinary Services involved in its eradication. Nowadays, ASF represents one of the biggest challenges for the pig sector at a global level. Following a number of simulated virus random introductions, the paper estimates the average number of farms (including their type) and animals that will be under restriction, and finally the average distance of infected farms from the nearest rendering plant. The study includes data referring to 101,032 farms with 9,322,819 pigs which are available in the Italian National Database (BDN). The simulations consider 5 different biogeographic regions with their own domestic pig distribution, breeding systems, and wild boar presence. Following an index case in a farm, and in the worst­case scenario, in the 10 km radius of the restriction area, there will be: 2,636 farms in South Italy; 470,216 animals in Po Valley; 147 km in Central Italy is the longest mean distance from the infected farm to the nearest rendering plant.

Effects of forest management and roe deer impact on a mountain forest development in the Italian Apennines: A modelling approach using LANDIS-II.

Forest development is a complex phenomenon which, for the number of actors involved and the response time expressed by forests, is difficult to understand and explore. Forests in Italy, as in several areas of Europe, are experiencing intensive management and recently, an increasing impact by ungulates. The effects on forest development of these two disturbances combined are difficult to predict, and consequently to be properly managed. We used a forest landscape change model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest development as driven by forestry practices and roe deer impact for 200 years in a mountain forest of the Italian Apennines. We found that each disturbance alters forest tree species richness, forest type abundance and distribution, and forest structure. When considered combined, the two disturbances show additive behavior, enhancing or moderating each other's effects. Forest management has a negative effect on tree species richness. We expected roe deer to have a negative effect on harvest yields, but this result was significant only for two of seven harvesting treatments. On the other hand, roe deer presence had a positive effect on tree species richness. All the simulation scenarios returned some extent of forest loss. The amount of the forest loss is lowest in the scenario without disturbances, and greatest when both disturbances are considered. However, the two disturbances combined, with the magnitude modelled in our simulations, have relatively low effects on the forest dynamics we analyzed in our study area. LANDIS-II was an effective approach for simulating combined management and ungulate driven trends of forest development, and to help understand the dynamics that lay behind it.

Assessing precision and requirements of three methods to estimate roe deer density.

Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) is the most abundant cervid in Europe and, as such, has a considerable impact over several human activities. Accurate roe deer population size estimates are useful to ensure their proper management. We tested 3 methods for estimating roe deer abundance (drive counts, pellet-group counts, and camera trapping) during two consecutive years (2012 and 2013) in the Apennines (Italy) in order to assess their precision and applicability. During the study period, population density estimates were: drive counts 21.89±12.74 roe deer/km2 and pellet-group counts 18.74±2.31 roe deer/km2 in 2012; drive counts 19.32±11.12 roe deer/km2 and camera trapping 29.05±7.48 roe deer/km2 in 2013. Precision of the density estimates differed widely among the 3 methods, with coefficients of variation ranging from 12% (pellet-group counts) to 58% (drive counts). Drive counts represented the most demanding method on account of the higher number of operators involved. Pellet-group counts yielded the most precise results and required a smaller number of operators, though the sampling effort was considerable. When compared to the other two methods, camera trapping resulted in an intermediate level of precision and required the lowest sampling effort. We also discussed field protocols of each method, considering that volunteers, rather than technicians, will more likely be appointed for these tasks in the near future. For this reason, we strongly suggest that for each method managers of population density monitoring projects take into account ease of use as well as the quality of the results obtained and the resources required.

R0 Estimation for the African Swine Fever Epidemics in Wild Boar of Czech Republic and Belgium.

African swine fever (ASF) is a contagious haemorrhagic fever that affects both domesticated and wild pigs. Since ASF reached Europe wild boar populations have been a reservoir for the virus. Collecting reliable data on infected individuals in wild populations is challenging, and this makes it difficult to deploy an effective eradication strategy. However, for diseases with high lethality rate, infected carcasses can be used as a proxy for the number of infected individuals at a certain time. Then R0 parameter can be used to estimate the time distribution of the number of newly infected individuals for the outbreak. We estimated R0 for two ASF outbreaks in wild boar, in Czech Republic and Belgium, using the exponential growth method. This allowed us to estimate both R0 and the doubling time (Td) for those infections. The results are R0 = 1.95, Td = 4.39 for Czech Republic and R0 = 1.65, Td = 6.43 for Belgium. We suggest that, if estimated as early as possible, R0 and Td can provide an expected course for the infection against which to compare the actual data collected in the field. This would help to assess if passive surveillance is properly implemented and hence to verify the efficacy of the applied control measures.

Evaluation of the Efficiency of Active and Passive Surveillance in the Detection of African Swine Fever in Wild Boar.

African swine fever (ASF) is one of the most severe diseases of pigs and has a drastic impact on pig industry. Wild boar populations play the role of ASF genotype II virus epidemiological reservoir. Disease surveillance in wild boar is carried out either by testing all the wild boar found sick or dead for virus detection (passive surveillance) or by testing for virus (and antibodies) all hunted wild boar (active surveillance). When virus prevalence and wild boar density are low as it happens close to eradication, the question on which kind of surveillance is more efficient in detecting the virus is still open. We built a simulation model to mimic the evolution of the host-parasite interaction in the European wild boar and to assess the efficiency of different surveillance strategies. We constructed a deterministic SIR model, which estimated the probability to detect the virus during the 8 years following its introduction, using both passive and active surveillance. Overall, passive surveillance provided a much larger number of ASF detections than active surveillance during the first year. During subsequent years, both active and passive surveillance exhibited a decrease in their probability to detect ASF. Such decrease, though, was more pronounced for passive surveillance. Under the assumption of 50% of carcasses detection, active surveillance became the best detection method when the endemic disease prevalence was lower than 1.5%, when hunting rate was >60% and when population density was lower than 0.1 individuals/km2. In such a situation, though, the absolute probability to detect the disease was very low with both methods, and finding almost every carcass is the only way to ensure virus detection. The sensitivity analysis shows that carcass search effort is the sole parameter that increases proportionally the chance of ASF virus detection. Therefore, an effort should be made to promote active search of dead wild boar also in endemic areas, since reporting wild boar carcasses is crucial to understand the epidemiological situation in any of the different phases of ASF infection at any wild boar density.

Prey selection by an apex predator: the importance of sampling uncertainty.

The impact of predation on prey populations has long been a focus of ecologists, but a firm understanding of the factors influencing prey selection, a key predictor of that impact, remains elusive. High levels of variability observed in prey selection may reflect true differences in the ecology of different communities but might also reflect a failure to deal adequately with uncertainties in the underlying data. Indeed, our review showed that less than 10% of studies of European wolf predation accounted for sampling uncertainty. Here, we relate annual variability in wolf diet to prey availability and examine temporal patterns in prey selection; in particular, we identify how considering uncertainty alters conclusions regarding prey selection.Over nine years, we collected 1,974 wolf scats and conducted drive censuses of ungulates in Alpe di Catenaia, Italy. We bootstrapped scat and census data within years to construct confidence intervals around estimates of prey use, availability and selection. Wolf diet was dominated by boar (61.5 ± 3.90 [SE] % of biomass eaten) and roe deer (33.7 ± 3.61%). Temporal patterns of prey densities revealed that the proportion of roe deer in wolf diet peaked when boar densities were low, not when roe deer densities were highest. Considering only the two dominant prey types, Manly's standardized selection index using all data across years indicated selection for boar (mean = 0.73 ± 0.023). However, sampling error resulted in wide confidence intervals around estimates of prey selection. Thus, despite considerable variation in yearly estimates, confidence intervals for all years overlapped. Failing to consider such uncertainty could lead erroneously to the assumption of differences in prey selection among years. This study highlights the importance of considering temporal variation in relative prey availability and accounting for sampling uncertainty when interpreting the results of dietary studies.

In vitro and in vivo effects of soluble, monovalent globotriose on bacterial attachment and colonization.

Epithelial cells lining the urinary tract are rich in globo series glycolipids, structurally defined by a Galalpha1,4Gal motif in the oligosaccharide moiety of this glycolipid family. This Galalpha1,4Gal motif is the attachment target for the P-fimbrial adhesin of uropathogenic Escherichia coli. We investigated the ability of a trisaccharide analog of this core motif, globotriose (Galalpha1,4Galbeta1,4Glc), to interfere with uropathogen attachment and colonization in vitro and in vivo. We assessed the ability of globotriose to inhibit and reverse the binding and agglutination of a P-fimbriated strain of E. coli (JR1) using human erythrocytes and immortalized human colonic epithelial cells as targets. Globotriose (5 mg/ml) completely inhibited and reversed cell agglutination and caused a 10- to 100-fold reduction in JR1 binding to target cells, as determined by flow cytometry. In preparation for an in vivo efficacy study, we investigated the distribution and pharmacokinetics of globotriose in the BALB/c mouse. Globotriose was administered via the tail vein, targeting an instantaneous plasma concentration of 5 mg/ml, and in a different experiment, animals were gavaged at 10 times the intravenous (i.v.) dose. Globotriose was rapidly cleared from plasma (half-life [t1/2], 6 min) and slowly excreted via the kidney (t1/2, 4 h). Urine levels of >5 mg/ml were maintained from 4 to 12 h after the i.v. bolus dose, which resulted in a 1-log reduction in established bladder colonization by JR1. These results suggest that free, soluble globotriose is a feasible alternative therapy for urinary tract infections.