Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating industrial trans-fatty acids in Nigeria: cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Nigeria is committed to reducing industrial trans-fatty acids (iTFA) from the food supply, but the potential health gains, costs and cost-effectiveness are unknown. METHODS: The effect on ischaemic heart disease (IHD) burden, costs and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) for foods in Nigeria were estimated using Markov cohort models. Data on demographics, IHD epidemiology and trans-fatty acid intake were derived from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. Avoided IHD events and deaths; health-adjusted life years (HALYs) gained; and healthcare, policy implementation and net costs were estimated over 10 years and the population's lifetime. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using net costs and HALYs gained (both discounted at 3%) were used to assess cost-effectiveness. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, a mandatory iTFA limit (assumed to eliminate iTFA intake) was estimated to prevent 9996 (95% uncertainty interval: 8870 to 11 118) IHD deaths and 66 569 (58 862 to 74 083) IHD events, and to save US$90 million (78 to 102) in healthcare costs. The corresponding lifetime estimates were 259 934 (228 736 to 290 191), 479 308 (95% UI 420 472 to 538 177) and 518 (450 to 587). Policy implementation costs were estimated at US$17 million (11 to 23) over the first 10 years, and US$26 million USD (19 to 33) over the population's lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, and findings were robust across several deterministic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: Our findings support mandating a limit of iTFAs as a cost-saving strategy to reduce the IHD burden in Nigeria.

The contribution of sodium reduction and potassium increase to the blood pressure lowering observed in the Salt Substitute and Stroke Study.

The Salt Substitute and Stroke Study (SSaSS) demonstrated significant reductions in systolic blood pressure (SBP), and the risk of stroke, major cardiovascular events and total mortality with the use of potassium-enriched salt. The contribution of sodium reduction versus potassium increase to these effects is unknown. We identified four different data sources describing the association between sodium reduction, potassium supplementation and change in SBP. We then fitted a series of models to estimate the SBP reductions expected for the differences in sodium and potassium intake in SSaSS, derived from 24-h urine collections. The proportions of the SBP reduction separately attributable to sodium reduction and potassium supplementation were calculated. The observed SBP reduction in SSaSS was -3.3 mmHg with a corresponding mean 15.2 mmol reduction in 24-h sodium excretion and a mean 20.6 mmol increase in 24-h potassium excretion. Assuming 90% of dietary sodium intake and 70% of dietary potassium intake were excreted through urine, the models projected falls in SBP of between -1.67 (95% confidence interval: -4.06 to +0.73) mmHg and -5.33 (95% confidence interval: -8.58 to -2.08) mmHg. The estimated proportional contribution of sodium reduction to the SBP fall ranged between 12 and 39% for the different models fitted. Sensitivity analyses assuming different proportional urinary excretion of dietary sodium and potassium intake showed similar results. In every model, the majority of the SBP lowering effect in SSaSS was estimated to be attributable to the increase in dietary potassium rather than the fall in dietary sodium.

Role of Polyunsaturated Fat in Modifying Cardiovascular Risk Associated With Family History of Cardiovascular Disease: Pooled De Novo Results From 15 Observational Studies.

BACKGROUND: It is unknown whether dietary intake of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) modifies the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk associated with a family history of CVD. We assessed interactions between biomarkers of low PUFA intake and a family history in relation to long-term CVD risk in a large consortium. METHODS: Blood and tissue PUFA data from 40 885 CVD-free adults were assessed. PUFA levels ≤25th percentile were considered to reflect low intake of linoleic, alpha-linolenic, and eicosapentaenoic/docosahexaenoic acids (EPA/DHA). Family history was defined as having ≥1 first-degree relative who experienced a CVD event. Relative risks with 95% CI of CVD were estimated using Cox regression and meta-analyzed. Interactions were assessed by analyzing product terms and calculating relative excess risk due to interaction. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustments, a significant interaction between low EPA/DHA and family history was observed (product term pooled RR, 1.09 [95% CI, 1.02-1.16]; P=0.01). The pooled relative risk of CVD associated with the combined exposure to low EPA/DHA, and family history was 1.41 (95% CI, 1.30-1.54), whereas it was 1.25 (95% CI, 1.16-1.33) for family history alone and 1.06 (95% CI, 0.98-1.14) for EPA/DHA alone, compared with those with neither exposure. The relative excess risk due to interaction results indicated no interactions. CONCLUSIONS: A significant interaction between biomarkers of low EPA/DHA intake, but not the other PUFA, and a family history was observed. This novel finding might suggest a need to emphasize the benefit of consuming oily fish for individuals with a family history of CVD.

Omega-3 Blood Levels and Stroke Risk: A Pooled and Harmonized Analysis of 183 291 Participants From 29 Prospective Studies.

BACKGROUND: The effect of marine omega-3 PUFAs on risk of stroke remains unclear. METHODS: We investigated the associations between circulating and tissue omega-3 PUFA levels and incident stroke (total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic) in 29 international prospective cohorts. Each site conducted a de novo individual-level analysis using a prespecified analytical protocol with defined exposures, covariates, analytical methods, and outcomes; the harmonized data from the studies were then centrally pooled. Multivariable-adjusted HRs and 95% CIs across omega-3 PUFA quintiles were computed for each stroke outcome. RESULTS: Among 183 291 study participants, there were 10 561 total strokes, 8220 ischemic strokes, and 1142 hemorrhagic strokes recorded over a median of 14.3 years follow-up. For eicosapentaenoic acid, comparing quintile 5 (Q5, highest) with quintile 1 (Q1, lowest), total stroke incidence was 17% lower (HR, 0.83 [CI, 0.76-0.91]; P<0.0001), and ischemic stroke was 18% lower (HR, 0.82 [CI, 0.74-0.91]; P<0.0001). For docosahexaenoic acid, comparing Q5 with Q1, there was a 12% lower incidence of total stroke (HR, 0.88 [CI, 0.81-0.96]; P=0.0001) and a 14% lower incidence of ischemic stroke (HR, 0.86 [CI, 0.78-0.95]; P=0.0001). Neither eicosapentaenoic acid nor docosahexaenoic acid was associated with a risk for hemorrhagic stroke. These associations were not modified by either baseline history of AF or prevalent CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Higher omega-3 PUFA levels are associated with lower risks of total and ischemic stroke but have no association with hemorrhagic stroke.

Estimated health benefits, costs and cost-effectiveness of eliminating dietary industrial trans fatty acids in Kenya: cost-effectiveness analysis.

OBJECTIVES: To model the potential health gains and cost-effectiveness of a mandatory limit of industrial trans fatty acids (iTFA) in Kenyan foods. DESIGN: Multiple cohort proportional multistate life table model, incorporating existing data from the Global Burden of Disease study, pooled analyses of observational studies and peer-reviewed evidence of healthcare and policy implementation costs. SETTING: Kenya. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged ≥20 years at baseline (n=50 million). INTERVENTION: A mandatory iTFA limit (≤2% of all fats) in the Kenyan food supply compared with a base case scenario of maintaining current trans fat intake. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Averted ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events and deaths, health-adjusted life years; healthcare costs; policy implementation costs; net costs; and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. RESULTS: Over the first 10 years, the intervention was estimated to prevent ~1900 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1714; 2148) IHD deaths and ~17 000 (95% UI: 15 475; 19 551) IHD events, and to save ~US$50 million (95% UI: 44; 56). The corresponding estimates over the lifespan of the model population were ~49 000 (95% UI: 43 775; 55 326) IHD deaths prevented, ~113 000 (95% UI: 100 104; 127 969) IHD events prevented and some ~US$300 million (256; 331) saved. Policy implementation costs were estimated as ~US$9 million over the first 10 years and ~US$20 million over the population lifetime. The intervention was estimated to be cost saving regardless of the time horizon. Findings were robust across multiple sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Findings support policy action for a mandatory iTFA limit as a cost-saving strategy to avert IHD events and deaths in Kenya.

Development and Validation of the US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) Model: Health Disparity and Economic Impact Model.

BACKGROUND: Few simulation models have incorporated the interplay of diabetes, obesity, and cardiovascular disease (CVD); their upstream lifestyle and biological risk factors; and their downstream effects on health disparities and economic consequences. METHODS: We developed and validated a US Diabetes, Obesity, Cardiovascular Disease Microsimulation (DOC-M) model that incorporates demographic, clinical, and lifestyle risk factors to jointly predict overall and racial-ethnic groups-specific obesity, diabetes, CVD, and cause-specific mortality for the US adult population aged 40 to 79 y at baseline. An individualized health care cost prediction model was further developed and integrated. This model incorporates nationally representative data on baseline demographics, lifestyle, health, and cause-specific mortality; dynamic changes in modifiable risk factors over time; and parameter uncertainty using probabilistic distributions. Validation analyses included assessment of 1) population-level risk calibration and 2) individual-level risk discrimination. To illustrate the application of the DOC-M model, we evaluated the long-term cost-effectiveness of a national produce prescription program. RESULTS: Comparing the 15-y model-predicted population risk of primary outcomes among the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cohort with the observed prevalence from age-matched cross-sectional 2003-2016 NHANES cohorts, calibration performance was strong based on observed-to-expected ratio and calibration plot analysis. In most cases, Brier scores fell below 0.0004, indicating a low overall prediction error. Using the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis cohorts, the c-statistics for assessing individual-level risk discrimination were 0.85 to 0.88 for diabetes, 0.93 to 0.95 for obesity, 0.74 to 0.76 for CVD history, and 0.78 to 0.81 for all-cause mortality, both overall and in three racial-ethnic groups. Open-source code for the model was posted at https://github.com/food-price/DOC-M-Model-Development-and-Validation. CONCLUSIONS: The validated DOC-M model can be used to examine health, equity, and the economic impact of health policies and interventions on behavioral and clinical risk factors for obesity, diabetes, and CVD. HIGHLIGHTS: We developed a novel microsimula'tion model for obesity, diabetes, and CVD, which intersect together and - critically for prevention and treatment interventions - share common lifestyle, biologic, and demographic risk factors.Validation analyses, including assessment of (1) population-level risk calibration and (2) individual-level risk discrimination, showed strong performance across the overall population and three major racial-ethnic groups for 6 outcomes (obesity, diabetes, CVD, and all-cause mortality, CVD- and DM-cause mortality)This paper provides a thorough explanation and documentation of the development and validation process of a novel microsimulation model, along with the open-source code (https://github.com/food-price/ DOCM_validation) for public use, to serve as a guide for future simulation model assessments, validation, and implementation.

Considerations for modelling a broad food tax in the Philippines and other low-income and middle-income countries.

Fiscal policies to improve diet are a promising strategy to address the increasing burden of non-communicable disease, the leading cause of death globally. Sugar-sweetened beverage taxes are the most implemented type of fiscal policy to improve diet. Yet taxes on food, if appropriately structured and applied across the food supply, may support a larger population-level shift towards a healthier diet. Designing these policies and guiding them through the legislative process requires evidence. Equity-oriented cost-effectiveness analyses that estimate the distribution of potential health and economic gains can provide this critical evidence. Taxes on less healthy foods are rarely modelled in low-income and middle-income countries.We describe considerations for modelling the effect of a food tax, which can provide guidance for food tax policy design. This includes describing issues related to the availability, reliability and level of detail of national data on dietary habits, the nutrient content of foods and food prices; the structure of the nutrient profile model; type of tax; tax rate; pass-through rate and price elasticity. Using the Philippines as an example, we discuss considerations for using existing data to model the potential effect of a tax, while also taking into account the political and food policy context. In this way, we provide a modelling framework that can help guide policy-makers and advocates in designing a food policy to improve the health and well-being of future generations in the Philippines and elsewhere.

The Effect of Retail Food Environment Interventions on Dietary Behavior in Postsecondary Education Settings: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Postsecondary education institutions, where hundreds of millions of people work and study globally, are a key setting for retail food environment interventions. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to synthesize the evidence for the effectiveness of retail food environment interventions in improving the healthiness of dietary behavior of students and staff in postsecondary education settings. METHODS: Academic databases were searched for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-experimental studies published until August 2023. Studies were eligible if they assessed the impact of a retail food environment intervention on healthiness of dietary behavior (purchases or consumption) in students or staff in postsecondary education settings and targeted one of the following food environment elements: placement, price, product, or promotion. Business-related outcomes (total sales, profit, or revenue) were included as secondary outcomes. Findings were synthesized in narrative form, organized by retail food environment element. Where comparable dietary outcome data were available from ≥10 interventions, findings were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 10,126 studies initially identified, 55 (76% quasi-experimental) were included, describing 71 separate interventions (n = 49 single-element and n = 22 multi-element). Two-thirds (n = 47, 66%) of interventions (n = 32 single-element and n = 15 multi-element) demonstrated significant improvements in dietary behavior. Single-element interventions targeting placement (n = 1) and price (n = 3) improved dietary behavior. Most (n = 9/10, 90%) interventions targeting product availability or convenience (product element) improved dietary behavior, while n = 19/35 (54%) targeting promotion did. Pooled findings from 12 interventions reporting changes in energy content demonstrated a significant decrease in purchased or consumed energy (-7.9%; 95% confidence interval: -10.3%, -5.6%). Almost all interventions (n = 11/12, 92%) that evaluated the impact on business-related outcomes found either a significant increase or no change following the intervention. CONCLUSIONS: We established encouraging evidence supporting the role of retail food environment interventions in postsecondary education settings to support healthy dietary behaviors of students and staff. REGISTRY: PROSPERO (International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=295836; registration number CRD42022295836).

The effect of mycoprotein intake on biomarkers of human health: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mycoprotein is a fungal source of protein that is increasingly consumed as an ingredient in meat analogs. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the effects of mycoprotein intake on selected biomarkers of human health. METHODS: This study was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022308980). We searched the PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify randomized control trials in any language until 16 August, 2022. Trials were included if they administered a mycoprotein intervention against a nonmycoprotein control arm and if reported outcomes included blood lipids, blood glucose, insulin, blood pressure, or body weight. Eligible trials were assessed for risk of bias using the Cochrane risk-of-bias tool for randomized trials. An inverse-variance-weighted, random-effects meta-analysis model was used to assess the effects of intake across each biomarker. RESULTS: Nine trials that included 178 participants with a mean follow-up of 13 d were included, with 4 reporting on blood lipids and 5 reporting on postprandial blood glucose or insulin. The overall reduction of total cholesterol was -0.55 mmol/L (95% CI: -0.85 to -0.26; P < 0.001) in the mycoprotein group compared to control, but no clear effects on HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, or TGs were found (all P > 0.05). There were no reductions in postprandial blood glucose concentrations at 30, 60, 90 or 120 min. Postprandial blood insulin concentration was reduced by -76.51 pmol/L (95% CI: -150.75 to -2.28; P = 0.043) at 30 min, with no detectable effects at 60, 90, or 120 min. CONCLUSIONS: Mycoprotein intake may have important effects on blood lipids, but the evidence base is limited by the small sample sizes and short intervention periods of the contributing trials. The protocol for this systematic review has been registered in PROSPERO as CRD42022308980.

Omega-3 Fatty Acid Biomarkers and Incident Atrial Fibrillation.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between omega-3 fatty acids and atrial fibrillation (AF) remains controversial. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to determine the prospective associations of blood or adipose tissue levels of eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with incident AF. METHODS: We used participant-level data from a global consortium of 17 prospective cohort studies, each with baseline data on blood or adipose tissue omega-3 fatty acid levels and AF outcomes. Each participating study conducted a de novo analyses using a prespecified analytical plan with harmonized definitions for exposures, outcome, covariates, and subgroups. Associations were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: Among 54,799 participants from 17 cohorts, 7,720 incident cases of AF were ascertained after a median 13.3 years of follow-up. In multivariable analysis, EPA levels were not associated with incident AF, HR per interquintile range (ie, the difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles) was 1.00 (95% CI: 0.95-1.05). HRs for higher levels of DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA, were 0.89 (95% CI: 0.83-0.95), 0.90 (95% CI: 0.85-0.96), and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.87-0.99), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In vivo levels of omega-3 fatty acids including EPA, DPA, DHA, and EPA+DHA were not associated with increased risk of incident AF. Our data suggest the safety of habitual dietary intakes of omega-3 fatty acids with respect to AF risk. Coupled with the known benefits of these fatty acids in the prevention of adverse coronary events, our study suggests that current dietary guidelines recommending fish/omega-3 fatty acid consumption can be maintained.

Hypertension treatment capacity in India by increased workforce, greater task-sharing, and extended prescription period: a modelling study.

Background: The worldwide control rate for hypertension is dismal. An inadequate number of physicians to treat patients with hypertension is one key obstacle. Innovative health system approaches such as delegation of basic tasks to non-physician health workers (task-sharing) might alleviate this problem. Massive scale up of population-wide hypertension management is especially important for low- and middle-income countries such as India. Methods: Using constrained optimization models, we estimated the hypertension treatment capacity and salary costs of staff involved in hypertension care within the public health system of India and simulated the potential effects of (1) an increased workforce, (2) greater task-sharing among health workers, and (3) extended average prescription periods that reduce treatment visit frequency (e.g., quarterly instead of monthly). Findings: Currently, only an estimated 8% (95% uncertainty interval 7%-10%) of ∼245 million adults with hypertension can be treated by physician-led services in the Indian public health system (assuming the current number of health workers, no greater task-sharing, and monthly visits for prescriptions). Without task-sharing and with continued monthly visits for prescriptions, the least costly workforce expansion to treat 70% of adults with hypertension would require ∼1.6 (1.0-2.5) million additional staff (all non-physicians), with ∼INR 200 billion (≈USD 2.7 billion) in additional annual salary costs. Implementing task-sharing among health workers (without increasing the overall time on hypertension care) or allowing a 3-month prescription period was estimated to allow the current workforce to treat ∼25% of patients. Joint implementation of task-sharing and a longer prescription period could treat ∼70% of patients with hypertension in India. Interpretation: The combination of greater task-sharing and extended prescription periods could substantially increase the hypertension treatment capacity in India without any expansion of the current workforce in the public health system. By contrast, workforce expansion alone would require considerable, additional human and financial resources. Funding: Resolve to Save Lives, an initiative of Vital Strategies, was funded by grants from Bloomberg Philanthropies; the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; and Gates Philanthropy Partners (funded with support from the Chan Zuckerberg Foundation).

The relationship between midlife dyslipidemia and lifetime incidence of dementia: A systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies.

Introduction: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to review the relationship between midlife dyslipidemia and lifetime incident dementia. Methods: The databases Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane were searched from inception to February 20, 2022. Longitudinal studies examining the relationship between midlife lipid levels on dementia, dementia subtypes, and/or cognitive impairment were pooled using inverse-variance weighted random-effects meta-analysis. Results: Seventeen studies (1.2 million participants) were included. Midlife hypercholesterolemia was associated with increased incidence of mild cognitive impairment (effect size [ES] = 2.01; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19 to 2.84; I2 = 0.0%) and all-cause dementia (ES = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.21; I2 = 0.0%). Each 1 mmol/L increase in low-density lipoprotein was associated with an 8% increase (ES = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.14; I2 = 0.3%) in incidence of all-cause dementia. Discussion: Midlife dyslipidemia is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment in later life.

Contrasting Carbohydrate Quantity and Quality and the Effects on Plasma Saturated and Monounsaturated Fatty Acids in Healthy Adults: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether moderate differences in dietary carbohydrate quantity and quality influence plasma FAs in the lipogenic pathway in healthy adults. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the effects of different carbohydrate quantities and quality on plasma palmitate concentrations (primary outcome) and other saturated and MUFAs in the lipogenic pathway. METHODS: Twenty healthy participants were randomly assigned, and 18 (50% women; age: 22-72 y; BMI: 18.2-32.7 kg/m2 and BMI was measured in kg/m2) started the cross-over intervention. During each 3-wk period (separated by a 1-wk washout period), 3 diets were consumed (all foods provided) in random order: low-carbohydrate (LC) (38% energy (E) carbohydrates, 25-35 g fiber/d, 0% E added sugars); high-carbohydrate/high-fiber (HCF) (53% E carbohydrates, 25-35 g fiber/d, 0% E added sugars); and high-carbohydrate/high-sugar (HCS) (53% E carbohydrates, 19-21 g fiber/d, 15% E added sugars). Individual FAs were measured proportionally to total FAs by GC in plasma cholesteryl esters, phospholipids, and TGs. False discovery rate-adjusted repeated measures ANOVA [ANOVA-false discovery rate (FDR)] was used to compare outcomes. RESULTS: The self-reported intakes of carbohydrates and added- and free sugars were; 30.6% E and 7.4% E in LC, 41.4% E and 6.9% E in HCF, and 45.7% E and 10.3% in HCS. Plasma palmitate did not differ between the diet periods (ANOVA FDR P > 0.43, n = 18). After HCS, myristate concentrations in cholesterol esters and phospholipids were ≥19% higher than LC and ≥22% higher than HCF (P = 0.005). After LC, palmitoleate in TG was 6% lower compared with HCF and 7% compared with HCS (P = 0.041). Body weight differed (≤0.75 kg) between diets before FDR correction. CONCLUSIONS: Different carbohydrate quantity and quality do not influence plasma palmitate concentrations after 3 wk in healthy Swedish adults, whereas myristate increased after the moderately higher intake of carbohydrate/high-sugar, but not carbohydrate/high-fiber. Whether plasma myristate is more responsive than palmitate to differences in carbohydrate intake requires further study, especially considering that participants deviated from the planned dietary targets. J Nutr 20XX;xx:xx-xx. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03295448.

Presence of trans-Fatty Acids Containing Ingredients in Pre-Packaged Foods and the Availability of Reported trans-Fat Levels in Kenya and Nigeria.

In most African countries, the prevalence of industrially produced trans-fatty acids (iTFA) in the food supply is unknown. We estimated the number and proportion of products containing specific (any hydrogenated edible oils) and non-specific (vegetable fat, margarine, and vegetable cream) ingredients potentially indicative of iTFAs among pre-packaged foods collected in Kenya and Nigeria. We also summarized the number and proportion of products that reported trans-fatty acids levels and the range of reported trans-fatty acids levels. In total, 99 out of 5668 (1.7%) products in Kenya and 310 out of 6316 (4.9%) products in Nigeria contained specific ingredients indicative of iTFAs. Bread and bakery products and confectioneries in both countries had the most foods that contained iTFAs-indicative ingredients. A total of 656 products (12%) in Kenya and 624 products (10%) in Nigeria contained non-specific ingredients that may indicate the presence of iTFAs. The reporting of levels of trans-fatty acids was low in both Kenya and Nigeria (11% versus 26%, respectively, p < 0.001). With the increasing burden of ischemic heart disease in Kenya and Nigeria, the rapid adoption of WHO best-practice policies and the mandatory declaration of trans-fatty acids are important for eliminating iTFAs.

Association of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acids with incident chronic kidney disease: pooled analysis of 19 cohorts.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prospective associations of circulating levels of omega 3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) biomarkers (including plant derived α linolenic acid and seafood derived eicosapentaenoic acid, docosapentaenoic acid, and docosahexaenoic acid) with incident chronic kidney disease (CKD). DESIGN: Pooled analysis. DATA SOURCES: A consortium of 19 studies from 12 countries identified up to May 2020. STUDY SELECTION: Prospective studies with measured n-3 PUFA biomarker data and incident CKD based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Each participating cohort conducted de novo analysis with prespecified and consistent exposures, outcomes, covariates, and models. The results were pooled across cohorts using inverse variance weighted meta-analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary outcome of incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2. In a sensitivity analysis, incident CKD was defined as new onset estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and <75% of baseline rate. RESULTS: 25 570 participants were included in the primary outcome analysis and 4944 (19.3%) developed incident CKD during follow-up (weighted median 11.3 years). In multivariable adjusted models, higher levels of total seafood n-3 PUFAs were associated with a lower incident CKD risk (relative risk per interquintile range 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.86 to 0.98; P=0.009, I2=9.9%). In categorical analyses, participants with total seafood n-3 PUFA level in the highest fifth had 13% lower risk of incident CKD compared with those in the lowest fifth (0.87, 0.80 to 0.96; P=0.005, I2=0.0%). Plant derived α linolenic acid levels were not associated with incident CKD (1.00, 0.94 to 1.06; P=0.94, I2=5.8%). Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis. The association appeared consistent across subgroups by age (≥60 v <60 years), estimated glomerular filtration rate (60-89 v ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2), hypertension, diabetes, and coronary heart disease at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Higher seafood derived n-3 PUFA levels were associated with lower risk of incident CKD, although this association was not found for plant derived n-3 PUFAs. These results support a favourable role for seafood derived n-3 PUFAs in preventing CKD.

Estimated Dietary and Health Impact of the World Health Organization's Global Sodium Benchmarks on Packaged Foods in Australia: a Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: In 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) set sodium benchmarks for packaged foods to guide countries in setting feasible and effective sodium reformulation programs. We modeled the dietary and health impact of full compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks in Australia and compared it to the potential impact of Australia's 2020 sodium reformulation targets. METHODS: We used nationally representative data on food and sodium intake, sodium levels in packaged foods, and food sales volume to estimate sodium intake pre- and post-implementation of the WHO and Australia's sodium benchmarks for 24 age-sex groups. Using comparative risk assessment models, we then estimated the potential deaths, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years averted from cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer based on the reductions in sodium intake. RESULTS: Compliance with the WHO's sodium benchmarks for packaged foods in Australia could lower mean adult sodium intake by 404 mg/day, corresponding to a 12% reduction. This could prevent about 1770 deaths/year (95% uncertainty interval 1168-2587), corresponding to 3% of all cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer deaths in Australia, and prevent some 6900 (4603-9513) new cases, and 25 700 (17 655-35 796) disability-adjusted life years/year. Compared with Australian targets, the WHO benchmarks will avert around 3 and a half times more deaths each year (1770 versus 510). CONCLUSIONS: Substantially greater health impact could be achieved if the Australian government strengthened its current sodium reformulation program by adopting WHO's more stringent and comprehensive sodium benchmarks.

Packaged foods purchased on price promotion in Australia.

We examined the prevalence and magnitude of price promotions among purchases of packaged foods and beverages in Australia, as well as the contribution of price-promoted foods and beverages to apparent energy intake. We utilized grocery purchase data from a nationally representative panel of 10 000 households in 2019 (NielsenIQ Homescan panel), combined with a food nutrition dataset (FoodSwitch). Nutritional quality was defined using the Australian and New Zealand Health Star Rating (HSR), where products with an HSR <3.5 were classified as 'less healthy' and products with an HSR ≥3.5 were classified as 'healthy'. Apparent energy intake was expressed as the total energy content of all purchased products per day per capita. Price promotions were claimed by panel members. Overall, four-in-ten packaged products (41%) were purchased on price promotion. Compared to 'healthy' products, 'less healthy' products were more frequently purchased on price promotion (33% vs 48%, respectively, p < 0.001), but had a similar mean magnitude of price discount (both 22%). Low socio-economic status (SES) households consumed 18% more energy from 'less healthy' packaged products on price promotion than high SES households (1141 vs 970 kJ/day/capita, p < 0.001). In conclusion, restricting price promotions for 'less healthy' packaged foods and beverages could potentially improve diet quality and dietary inequalities in Australia.

Socio-economic difference in purchases of ultra-processed foods in Australia: an analysis of a nationally representative household grocery purchasing panel.

BACKGROUND: Consumption of ultra-processed foods is associated with increased risk of obesity and non-communicable diseases. Little is known about current patterns of ultra-processed foods intake in Australia. The aim of this study was to examine the amount and type of ultra-processed foods purchased by Australian households in 2019 and determine whether purchases differed by socio-economic status (SES). We also assessed whether purchases of ultra-processed foods changed between 2015 and 2019.  METHODS: We used grocery purchase data from a nationally representative consumer panel in Australia to assess packaged and unpackaged grocery purchases that were brought home between 2015 to 2019. Ultra-processed foods were identified according to the NOVA system, which classifies foods according to the nature, extent and purpose of industrial food processing. Purchases of ultra-processed foods were calculated per capita, using two outcomes: grams/day and percent of total energy. The top food categories contributing to purchases of ultra-processed foods in 2019 were identified, and differences in ultra-processed food purchases by SES (Index of Relative Social Advantage and Disadvantage) were assessed using survey-weighted linear regression. Changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods between 2015 to 2019 were examined overall and by SES using mixed linear models. RESULTS: In 2019, the mean ± SD total grocery purchases made by Australian households was 881.1 ± 511.9 g/d per capita. Of this, 424.2 ± 319.0 g/d per capita was attributable to purchases of ultra-processed foods, which represented 56.4% of total energy purchased. The largest food categories contributing to total energy purchased included mass-produced, packaged breads (8.2% of total energy purchased), chocolate and sweets (5.7%), biscuits and crackers (5.7%) and ice-cream and edible ices (4.3%). In 2019, purchases of ultra-processed foods were significantly higher for the lowest SES households compared to all other SES quintiles (P < 0.001). There were no major changes in purchases of ultra-processed foods overall or by SES over the five-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Between 2015 and 2019, ultra-processed foods have consistently made up the majority of groceries purchased by Australians, particularly for the lowest SES households. Policies that reduce ultra-processed food consumption may reduce diet-related health inequalities.

Building the health-economic case for scaling up the WHO-HEARTS hypertension control package in low- and middle-income countries.

Generally, hypertension control programs are cost-effective, including in low- and middle-income countries, but country governments and civil society are not likely to support hypertension control programs unless value is demonstrated in terms of public health benefits, budget impact, and value-for-investment for the individual country context. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) established a standard, simplified Global HEARTS approach to hypertension control, including preferred antihypertensive medicines and blood pressure measurement devices. The objective of this study is to report on health economic studies of HEARTS hypertension control package cost (especially medication costs), cost-effectiveness, and budget impact and describe mathematical models designed to translate hypertension control program data into the optimal approach to hypertension care service delivery and financing, especially in low- and middle-income countries. Early results suggest that HEARTS hypertension control interventions are either cost-saving or cost-effective, that the HEARTS package is affordable at between US$ 18-44 per person treated per year, and that antihypertensive medicines could be priced low enough to reach a global standard of an average

En general, los programas de control de la hipertensión son costo-eficaces, incluso en los países de ingresos bajos y medios. Aun así, es poco probable que los gobiernos nacionales y la sociedad civil apoyen los programas de control de la hipertensión a menos que se demuestre su valor en términos de beneficios para la salud pública, impacto presupuestario y valor de la inversión para el contexto individual del país. La Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) y la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) implementaron la iniciativa HEARTS, un enfoque mundial estandarizado y simplificado para el control de la hipertensión, que incluye los medicamentos antihipertensivos y los dispositivos de medición de la presión arterial de preferencia. El objetivo de este estudio es informar sobre los estudios en el ámbito de la economía de la salud relativos al costo de las medidas de control de la hipertensión previstas en HEARTS (especialmente, de los medicamentos), la costo-efectividad y el impacto presupuestario, así como describir los modelos matemáticos diseñados para traducir los datos de este programa en un enfoque óptimo para la prestación y el financiamiento de los servicios de atención de la hipertensión, especialmente en países de ingresos medianos y bajos. Los primeros resultados indican que las intervenciones de HEARTS para el control de la hipertensión son de bajo costo o costo-eficaces, que el conjunto de medidas HEARTS es asequible, a un precio que oscila entre US$ 18 y US$ 44 al año por paciente tratado, y que los medicamentos antihipertensivos podrían tener un precio lo suficientemente bajo como para alcanzar un estándar medio mundial de

Geralmente, os programas de controle de hipertensão são custo-efetivos, inclusive em países de baixa e média renda, mas os governos dos países e a sociedade civil provavelmente não apoiarão tais programas a menos que demonstrem valor em termos de benefícios à saúde pública, impacto orçamentário e retorno sobre o investimento no contexto individual do país. A Organização Mundial da Saúde (OMS) e a Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde (OPAS) criaram a Global HEARTS, uma abordagem padrão e simplificada ao controle da hipertensão arterial, que inclui medicamentos anti-hipertensivos preferidos e dispositivos para aferição da pressão arterial preferidos. O objetivo deste estudo é relatar os estudos de economia em saúde que analisaram o custo (especialmente custos de medicamentos), custo-benefício e impacto orçamentário do pacote HEARTS para controle da hipertensão e descrever modelos matemáticos elaborados para traduzir os dados do programa de controle de hipertensão em uma abordagem ideal para a prestação e financiamento de serviços de atenção às pessoas com hipertensão, especialmente em países de baixa e média renda. Os primeiros resultados sugerem que as intervenções HEARTS para controle da hipertensão são de baixo custo ou custo-efetivas, que o pacote HEARTS é acessível (custando de US$ 18 a 44 por pessoa tratada por ano) e que o preço dos medicamentos anti-hipertensivos poderia ser baixo o suficiente para atingir uma média global de

Effects of sugar-sweetened soda on plasma saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids in individuals with obesity: A randomized study.

Background: High carbohydrate, i.e., sugars, intake potentially drives the liver into a lipogenic state leading to elevated plasma fatty acids. Excessive intake of saturated fat and sugar-sweetened soda induces liver fat accumulation, but studying the effect of high intake from sugar-sweetened soda on the de novo lipogenesis (DNL) fatty acids in long-term randomized trials is lacking. Objective: To study the effect of consuming 1 L/day of sugar-sweetened soda, semi-skimmed milk (milk), aspartame-sweetened soda or water over 24 weeks on DNL-derived fatty acids (i.e., palmitate (primary outcome) and other saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids), and markers of stearoyl-CoA desaturase activity (SCD1) in plasma phospholipids (PL), cholesteryl esters (CE), and triglycerides (TG). Design and methods: A randomized parallel study was conducted simultaneously at Aarhus University Hospital and Copenhagen University, Denmark, including (n = 41) individuals aged 20-50 years, with BMI of 26-40 kg/m2, and without diabetes. The groups consisted of 9 individuals in the sugar-sweetened soda, 10 in the milk, 11 in the aspartame-sweetened soda, and 11 in the water. The change at 24 weeks was assessed and compared across the groups using ANCOVA and mixed-effects models. Correlations of fatty acid changes with liver fat accumulation (magnetic resonance imaging) were explored. Results: After 24 weeks, the groups differed in palmitate proportions in PL, oleate in CE and PL, and palmitoleate and SCD1 in all fractions (p < 0.05). Compared with water, the relative proportion of palmitate in PL increased by approximately 1% during both sugar-sweetened soda (p = 0.011) and milk (p = 0.006), whereas oleate and palmitoleate increased only during sugar-sweetened soda (CE 2.77%, p < 0.001; PL 1.51%, p = 0.002 and CE 1.46%, PL 0.24%, TG 1.31%, all p < 0.001, respectively). Liver fat accumulation correlated consistently with changes in palmitoleate, whereas correlations with palmitate and oleate were inconsistent across lipid fractions. Conclusions: Although both sugar-sweetened soda and milk increased palmitate in PL, only excess intake of sugar-sweetened soda increased palmitoleate in all lipid fractions and correlated with liver fat. In contrast, isocaloric milk intake did not increase plasma monounsaturated fatty acids. Clinical trial registration: [https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00777647], identifier [NCT00777647].