Effects of the Million Hearts Model on Myocardial Infarctions, Strokes, and Medicare Spending: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The Million Hearts Model paid health care organizations to assess and reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Model effects on long-term outcomes are unknown. Objective: To estimate model effects on first-time myocardial infarctions (MIs) and strokes and Medicare spending over a period up to 5 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pragmatic cluster-randomized trial ran from 2017 to 2021, with organizations assigned to a model intervention group or standard care control group. Randomized organizations included 516 US-based primary care and specialty practices, health centers, and hospital-based outpatient clinics participating voluntarily. Of these organizations, 342 entered patients into the study population, which included Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries aged 40 to 79 years with no previous MI or stroke and with high or medium CVD risk (a 10-year predicted probability of MI or stroke [ie, CVD risk score] ≥15%) in 2017-2018. Intervention: Organizations agreed to perform guideline-concordant care, including routine CVD risk assessment and cardiovascular care management for high-risk patients. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services paid organizations to calculate CVD risk scores for Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries. CMS further rewarded organizations for reducing risk among high-risk beneficiaries (CVD risk score ≥30%). Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included first-time CVD events (MIs, strokes, and transient ischemic attacks) identified in Medicare claims, combined first-time CVD events from claims and CVD deaths (coronary heart disease or cerebrovascular disease deaths) identified using the National Death Index, and Medicare Parts A and B spending for CVD events and overall. Outcomes were measured through 2021. Results: High- and medium-risk model intervention beneficiaries (n = 130 578) and standard care control beneficiaries (n = 88 286) were similar in age (median age, 72-73 y), sex (58%-59% men), race (7%-8% Black), and baseline CVD risk score (median, 24%). The probability of a first-time CVD event within 5 years was 0.3 percentage points lower for intervention beneficiaries than control beneficiaries (3.3% relative effect; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.97 [90% CI, 0.93-1.00]; P = .09). The 5-year probability of combined first-time CVD events and CVD deaths was 0.4 percentage points lower in the intervention group (4.2% relative effect; HR, 0.96 [90% CI, 0.93-0.99]; P = .02). Medicare spending for CVD events was similar between the groups (effect estimate, -$1.83 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, -$3.97 to -$0.30]; P = .16), as was overall Medicare spending including model payments (effect estimate, $2.11 per beneficiary per month [90% CI, -$16.66 to $20.89]; P = .85). Conclusions and Relevance: The Million Hearts Model, which encouraged and paid for CVD risk assessment and reduction, reduced first-time MIs and strokes. Results support guidelines to use risk scores for CVD primary prevention. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04047147.

Ten-Year Cardiovascular Disease Risk Trajectories by Obstetric History: A Longitudinal Study in the Norwegian HUNT Study.

Background Women with a history of obstetric complications are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease, but whether they should be specifically targeted for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk screening is unknown. Methods and Results We used linked data from the Norwegian HUNT (Trøndelag Health) Study and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway to create a population-based, prospective cohort of parous women. Using an established CVD risk prediction model (A Norwegian risk model for cardiovascular disease), we predicted 10-year risk of CVD (nonfatal myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, and nonfatal or fatal stroke) based on established risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, antihypertensive use, and family history of myocardial infarction). Predicted 10-year CVD risk scores in women aged between 40 and 60 years were consistently higher in those with a history of obstetric complications. For example, when aged 40 years, women with a history of preeclampsia had a 0.06 percentage point higher mean risk score than women with all normotensive deliveries, and when aged 60 years this difference was 0.86. However, the differences in the proportion of women crossing established clinical thresholds for counseling and treatment in women with and without a complication were modest. Conclusions Findings do not support targeting parous women with a history of pregnancy complications for CVD screening. However, pregnancy complications identify women who would benefit from primordial and primary prevention efforts such as encouraging and supporting behavioral changes to reduce CVD risk in later life.

The role of cardiovascular risk factors in maternal cardiovascular disease according to offspring birth characteristics in the HUNT study.

A history of preterm or small (SGA) or large (LGA) for gestational age offspring is associated with smoking and unfavorable levels of BMI, blood pressure, glucose and lipids. Whether and to what extent the excess cardiovascular risk observed in women with these pregnancy complications is explained by conventional cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) is not known. We examined the association between a history of SGA, LGA or preterm birth and cardiovascular disease among 23,284 parous women and quantified the contribution of individual CVRFs to the excess cardiovascular risk using an inverse odds weighting approach. The hazard ratios (HR) between SGA and LGA offspring and CVD were 1.30 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15, 1.48) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.76, 1.03), respectively. Smoking explained 49% and blood pressure may have explained ≈12% of the excess cardiovascular risk in women with SGA offspring. Women with preterm birth had a 24% increased risk of CVD (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06, 1.45), but we found no evidence for CVRFs explaining any of this excess cardiovascular risk. While smoking explains a substantial proportion of excess cardiovascular risk in women with SGA offspring and blood pressure may explain a small proportion in these women, we found no evidence that conventional CVRFs explain any of the excess cardiovascular risk in women with preterm birth.

Life Course Trajectories of Maternal Cardiovascular Risk Factors according to Offspring Birthweight: The HUNT Study.

Women with small or large for gestational age offspring are at increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. How their cardiovascular risk factors develop across the life course is incompletely known. We linked data from the population-based HUNT Study (1984-2008) and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (1967-2012) for 22,487 women. Mixed effect models were used to compare cardiovascular risk factor trajectories for women according to first offspring birthweight for gestational age. Women with small for gestational age (SGA) offspring had 1-2 mmHg higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure across the life course, but lower measures of adiposity, compared to women with offspring who were appropriate for gestational age (AGA). In contrast, women with large for gestational age (LGA) offspring had higher measures of adiposity, ~0.1 mmol/l higher non-HDL cholesterol and triglycerides and 0.2 mmol/l higher non-fasting glucose, compared with mothers of AGA offspring. These differences were broadly stable from prior to first pregnancy until 60 years of age. Our findings point to different cardiovascular risk profiles in mothers of SGA versus LGA offspring, where giving birth to SGA offspring might primarily reflect adverse maternal vascular health whereas LGA offspring might reflect the mother's metabolic health.

Association of Conventional Cardiovascular Risk Factors With Cardiovascular Disease After Hypertensive Disorders of Pregnancy: Analysis of the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study.

Importance: Women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) have higher risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). It is not known how much of the excess CVD risk in women with a history of HDP is associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Objective: To quantify the excess risk of CVD in women with a history of HDP and estimate the proportion associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study with a median follow-up of 18 years. Population-based cohort of women participating in the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study in Norway. We linked data for 31 364 women from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (1984-2008) to validated hospital records (1987-2015), the Cause of Death Registry (1984-2015), and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway (1967-2012). A total of 7399 women were excluded based on selected pregnancy characteristics, incomplete data, or because of emigrating or experiencing the end point before start of follow-up, leaving 23 885 women for study. Data were analyzed between January 1, 2018, and June 6, 2018. Exposures: Experiencing 1 or more pregnancies complicated by HDP before age 40 years vs only experiencing normotensive pregnancies. Main Outcomes and Measures: We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between HDP and CVD. The proportion of excess risk associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors was estimated using an inverse odds ratio weighting approach. Results: Our study population consisted of 23 885 parous women from Nord-Trøndelag County, Norway. A total of 21 766 women had only normotensive pregnancies, while 2199 women experienced ever having an HDP. From age 40 to 70 years, women with history of HDP had an increased risk of CVD compared with women with only normotensive pregnancies (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.32-1.87) but not at older age (ß = 0.98; 95% CI, 0.96-1.00; P for interaction by age = .01). Blood pressure and body mass index were associated with up to 77% of the excess risk of CVD in women with history of HDP, while glucose and lipid levels were associated with smaller proportions. Conclusion and Relevance: In this study, the risk of excess CVD in women with history of HDP was associated with conventional cardiovascular risk factors, indicating that these risk factors are important targets for cardiovascular prevention in these women.

Does pregnancy complication history improve cardiovascular disease risk prediction? Findings from the HUNT study in Norway.

AIM: To evaluate whether history of pregnancy complications [pre-eclampsia, gestational hypertension, preterm delivery, or small for gestational age (SGA)] improves risk prediction for cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: This population-based, prospective cohort study linked data from the HUNT Study, Medical Birth Registry of Norway, validated hospital records, and Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. Using an established CVD risk prediction model (NORRISK 2), we predicted 10-year risk of CVD (non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, and non-fatal or fatal stroke) based on established risk factors (age, systolic blood pressure, total and HDL-cholesterol, smoking, anti-hypertensives, and family history of myocardial infarction). We evaluated whether adding pregnancy complication history improved model fit, calibration, discrimination, and reclassification. Among 18 231 women who were parous, ≥40 years of age, and CVD-free at start of follow-up, 39% had any pregnancy complication history and 5% experienced a CVD event during a median follow-up of 8.2 years. While pre-eclampsia and SGA were associated with CVD in unadjusted models (HR 1.96, 95% CI 1.44-2.65 for pre-eclampsia and HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.18-1.81 for SGA), only pre-eclampsia remained associated with CVD after adjusting for established risk factors (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.16-2.17). Adding pregnancy complication history to the established prediction model led to small improvements in discrimination (C-index difference 0.004, 95% CI 0.002-0.006) and reclassification (net reclassification improvement 0.02, 95% CI 0.002-0.05). CONCLUSION: Pre-eclampsia independently predicted CVD after controlling for established risk factors; however, adding pre-eclampsia, gestational hypertension, preterm delivery, and SGA made only small improvements to CVD prediction among this representative sample of parous Norwegian women.

Does pregnancy alter life-course lipid trajectories? Evidence from the HUNT Study in Norway.

We examined the association between pregnancy and life-course lipid trajectories. Linked data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study and the Medical Birth Registry of Norway yielded 19,987 parous and 1,625 nulliparous women. Using mixed-effects spline models, we estimated differences in nonfasting lipid levels from before to after first birth in parous women and between parous and nulliparous women. HDL cholesterol (HDL-C) dropped by -4.2 mg/dl (95% CI: -5.0, -3.3) from before to after first birth in adjusted models, a 7% change, and the total cholesterol (TC) to HDL-C ratio increased by 0.18 (95% CI: 0.11, 0.25), with no change in non-HDL-C or triglycerides. Changes in HDL-C and the TC/HDL-C ratio associated with pregnancy persisted for decades, leading to altered life-course lipid trajectories. For example, parous women had a lower HDL-C than nulliparous women at the age of 50 years (-1.4 mg/dl; 95% CI: -2.3, -0.4). Adverse changes in lipids were greatest after first birth, with small changes after subsequent births, and were larger in women who did not breastfeed. Findings suggest that pregnancy is associated with long-lasting adverse changes in HDL-C, potentially setting parous women on a more atherogenic trajectory than prior to pregnancy.

Life Course Trajectories of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Women With and Without Hypertensive Disorders in First Pregnancy: The HUNT Study in Norway.

Background Women with hypertensive pregnancy disorders have adverse levels of cardiovascular risk factors. It is unclear how this adverse risk factor profile evolves during adult life. We compared life course trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors in women with preeclampsia or gestational hypertension in their first pregnancy to normotensive women. Methods and Results We linked information on cardiovascular risk factors from the population-based HUNT (Nord-Trøndelag Health Study) surveys with pregnancy information from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Trajectories of cardiovascular risk factors were constructed for 22 308 women with a normotensive first pregnancy; 1092 with preeclampsia, and 478 with gestational hypertension in first pregnancy. Already before first pregnancy, women with preeclampsia in their first pregnancy had higher measures of adiposity, blood pressure, heart rate, and serum lipids and glucose compared with women with a normotensive first pregnancy. After first pregnancy, there was a parallel development in cardiovascular risk factor levels, but women with a normotensive first pregnancy had a time lag of >10 years compared with the preeclampsia group. There were no clear differences in risk factor trajectories between women with gestational hypertension and women with preeclampsia. Conclusions Women with hypertensive pregnancy disorders in their first pregnancy had an adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile before pregnancy compared with normotensive women, and the differences persisted beyond 50 years of age. Hypertensive disorders in pregnancy signal long-term increases in modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, and may be used to identify women who would benefit from early prevention strategies.

The Reduction in ED and Hospital Admissions in Medical Home Practices Is Specific to Primary Care-Sensitive Chronic Conditions.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) transformation reduces hospital and ED utilization, and whether the effect is specific to chronic conditions targeted for management by the PCMH in our setting. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SETTING: All patients aged 18 years and older in 2,218 primary care practices participating in a statewide PCMH incentive program sponsored by Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan (BCBSM) in 2009-2012. STUDY DESIGN: Quantitative observational study, jointly modeling PCMH-targeted versus other hospital admissions and ED visits on PCMH score, patient, and practice characteristics in a hierarchical multivariate model using the generalized gamma distribution. DATA COLLECTION: Claims data and PCMH scores held by BCBSM. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Both hospital and ED utilization were reduced proportionately to PCMH score. Hospital utilization was reduced by 13.9 percent for PCMH-targeted conditions versus only 3.8 percent for other conditions (p = .003), and ED utilization by 11.2 percent versus 3.7 percent (p = .010). Hospital PMPM cost was reduced by 17.2 percent for PCMH-targeted conditions versus only 3.1 percent for other conditions (p < .001), and ED PMPM cost by 9.4 percent versus 3.6 percent (p < .001). CONCLUSIONS: PCMH transformation reduces hospital and ED use, and the majority of the effect is specific to PCMH-targeted conditions.

Implementation of Patient-Centered Medical Homes in Adult Primary Care Practices.

There has been relatively little empirical evidence about the effects of patient-centered medical home (PCMH) implementation on patient-related outcomes and costs. Using a longitudinal design and a large study group of 2,218 Michigan adult primary care practices, our study examined the following research questions: Is the level of, and change in, implementation of PCMH associated with medical surgical cost, preventive services utilization, and quality of care in the following year? Results indicated that both level and amount of change in practice implementation of PCMH are independently and positively associated with measures of quality of care and use of preventive services, after controlling for a variety of practice, patient cohort, and practice environmental characteristics. Results also indicate that lower overall medical and surgical costs are associated with higher levels of PCMH implementation, although change in PCMH implementation did not achieve statistical significance.

Patient-centered medical home implementation and use of preventive services: the role of practice socioeconomic context.

IMPORTANCE: The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) model of primary care is being implemented in a wide variety of socioeconomic contexts, yet there has been little research on whether its effects differ by context. Clinical preventive service use, including cancer screening, is an important outcome to assess the effectiveness of the PCMH within and across socioeconomic contexts. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the relationship between the PCMH and cancer screening is conditional on the socioeconomic context in which a primary care physician practice operates. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A longitudinal study spanning July 1, 2009, through June 30, 2012, using data from the Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan Physician Group Incentive Program was conducted. Michigan nonpediatric primary care physician practices that participated in the Physician Group Incentive Program (5452 practice-years) were included. Sample size and outlier exclusion criteria were applied to each outcome. We examined the interaction between practices' PCMH implementation scores and their socioeconomic context. The implementation of a PCMH was self-reported by the practice's affiliated physician organizations and was measured as a continuous score ranging from 0 to 1. Socioeconomic context was calculated using a market-based approach based on zip code characteristics of the practice's patients and by combining multiple measures using principal components analysis. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening rates for practices' Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan patients. RESULTS: The implementation of a PCMH was associated with higher breast, cervical, and colorectal cancer screening rates across most market socioeconomic contexts. In multivariable models, the PCMH was associated with a higher rate of screening for breast cancer (5.4%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 9.3%), cervical cancer (4.2%; 95% CI, 1.4% to 6.9%), and colorectal cancer (7.0%; 95% CI, 3.6% to 10.5%) in the lowest socioeconomic group but nonsignificant differences in screening for breast cancer (2.6%; 95% CI, -0.1% to 5.3%) and cervical cancer (-0.5%; 95% CI, -2.7% to 1.7%) and a higher rate of colorectal cancer (4.5%; 95% CI, 1.8% to 7.3%) screening in the highest socioeconomic group. Because PCMH implementation was associated with larger increases in screening in lower socioeconomic practice settings, models suggest reduced disparities in screening rates across these contexts. For example, the model-predicted disparity in breast cancer screening rates between the highest and lowest socioeconomic contexts was 6% (77.9% vs 72.2%) among practices with no PCMH implementation and 3% (80.3% vs. 77.0%) among practices with full PCMH implementation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In our study, the PCMH model was associated with improved cancer screening rates across contexts but may be especially relevant for practices in lower socioeconomic areas.

Association between maternal preventive care utilization and adolescent vaccination: it's not just about Pap testing.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between maternal preventive care utilization and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake by their adolescent daughters. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study using immunization records from administrative claims and the state health department's immunization information system from June 2006 through May 2011. PARTICIPANTS: Commercially-insured Michigan females aged 13-17 in May 2011 and their mothers. Mothers were identified using relationship information on the insurance contract. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Using logistic regression, we investigated whether initiating and/or completing the HPV vaccine series were associated with maternal preventive care utilization (Papaniculou testing, mammograms, primary care office visits) independently and using a combined maternal preventive care utilization index. RESULTS: Among 38,604 mother-daughter pairs, 36% of daughters initiated and 22% completed the HPV vaccine series. Maternal utilization of each recommended service was modestly associated with both daughter's initiation and completion of the HPV vaccine. Effect estimates for receipt of Papaniculou test on vaccine initiation (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.06-1.08) were not any higher than for mammograms (OR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.08-1.11) or primary care office visits (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.06-1.09). Using a maternal preventive care utilization index, vaccine uptake increased with an increasing number of received services. CONCLUSIONS: Maternal receipt of recommended preventive care, which may reflect general attitudes toward prevention, is as or more predictive of daughter's vaccination status than cervical cancer screening alone. Engaging women in broad routine preventive care practices may have additional positive effects on adolescent HPV vaccination beyond those achieved through cervical cancer prevention efforts alone.

Where science meets policy: comparing longitudinal and cross-sectional designs to address diarrhoeal disease burden in the developing world.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies are considered preferable to cross-sectional studies for informing public health policy. However, when resources are limited, the trade-off between an accurate cross-section of the population and an understanding of the temporal variation should be optimized. When risk factors vary more across space at a fixed moment in time than at a fixed location across time, cross-sectional studies will tend to give more precise estimates of risk factor effects and thus may be a better source of data for policy judgments. METHODS: We conducted a diarrhoeal disease surveillance of 5616 individuals within 19 Ecuadorian villages. This data set was used to mimic cross-sectional and longitudinal studies by restricting focus to a single week and a single village, respectively. We compared the variability in risk factor effect estimates produced from each type of study. RESULTS: For household risk factors, the effect estimates produced by the longitudinal studies were more variable than their cross-sectional counterparts, which can be explained by greater spatial than temporal variability in the risk factor distribution. For example, the effect estimate of improved sanitation was almost twice as variable in longitudinal studies. CONCLUSIONS: In our study, cross-sectional designs yielded more consistent evaluations of diarrhoea disease risk factors when those factors varied more between villages than over time. Cross-sectional studies can provide information that is representative across large geographic regions and therefore can provide insight for local, regional and national policy decisions. The value of the cross-sectional study should be reconsidered in the public health community.

Primary antiretroviral drug resistance in newly human immunodeficiency virus-diagnosed individuals testing anonymously and confidentially.

The purpose of this study was to determine if anonymous and confidential testers differ in recency of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection at time of testing and prevalence of antiretroviral drug (ARV) resistance. We examined data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention-sponsored Antiretroviral Drug Resistance Testing project, which performed genotypic testing on leftover HIV diagnostic serum specimens of confidentially and anonymously tested ARV-naïve persons newly diagnosed with HIV in Colorado (n = 365 at 11 sites) and King County, Washington (n = 492 at 44 sites). The serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion was used to classify people as likely to have been recently infected or not. Type of testing, anonymous or confidential, was not significantly associated with either timing of HIV testing by serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion or resistance rates. Mutations conferring any level of ARV resistance were present in 17% of testers, and high-level resistance mutations were present in 10%. Anonymous testers were significantly more likely to have CD4+ counts >500 cells per mm(3) (45% vs. 28%; p = 0.018), indicative of an early infection. This study indicates that anonymous testers have demographic differences relative to confidential HIV testers but were not more likely to exhibit drug resistance. Findings related to when in the course of disease anonymous testers are tested are inconsistent, but anonymous testers had higher CD4 counts, which indicates early testing and is consistent with other studies.