Real-time parameter estimation of Zika outbreaks using model averaging.

Early prediction of the final size of any epidemic and in particular for Zika disease outbreaks can be useful for health authorities in order to plan the response to the outbreak. The Richards model is often been used to estimate epidemiological parameters for arboviral diseases based on the reported cumulative cases in single- and multi-wave outbreaks. However, other non-linear models can also fit the data as well. Typically, one follows the so called post selection estimation procedure, i.e., selects the best fitting model out of the set of candidate models and ignores the model uncertainty in both estimation and inference since these procedures are based on a single model. In this paper we focus on the estimation of the final size and the turning point of the epidemic and conduct a real-time prediction for the final size of the outbreak using several non-linear models in which these parameters are estimated via model averaging. The proposed method is applied to Zika outbreak data in four cities from Colombia, during the outbreak ocurred in 2015-2016.

Effect of Moxidectin Treatment at Peripartum on Gastrointestinal Parasite Infections in Ewes Raised under Tropical Andes High Altitude Conditions.

This study tested the impact of moxidectin at peripartum on nematode fecal egg count (FEC) and clinical parameters on ewes in the high altitude tropical Andes of Colombia. FEC and clinical evaluations were performed on 9 occasions in 43 naturally infected ewes before and during gestation and after lambing. Moxidectin (Mox, 200 µg kg(-1)) was applied at late pregnancy (T 1, n = 15) or 48 hours after parturition (T 2, n = 14). 14 untreated ewes served as controls (C). Suckling lambs (n = 58) remained untreated and underwent four clinical and parasitological evaluations until 8 weeks after birth. Mox efficacy equaled 99.3% (T 1) and 96.9% (T 2). Highest mean FEC value reflecting periparturient nematode egg rise (PPER) was recorded in C ewes at 4-6 weeks after lambing. Significant FEC reductions were found in T 1 (94.8%) and T 2 (96.7%) ewes (p < 0.05). All lambs showed a significant and ewes-group independent increase in FEC before weaning (p < 0.05). Clinical parameters (anemia and diarrhea) showed time- and treatment-related differences (p < 0.05). Monitoring of FEC and clinical parameters linked to gastrointestinal parasite infections allowed demonstrating that postpartum or preweaning are two critical periods to nematode infection for sheep raised under tropical Andes high altitude conditions. Use of Mox as anthelmintic treatment prevented PPER.