How much should we sequence? An analysis of the Swiss SARS-CoV-2 surveillance effort.

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many countries directed substantial resources toward genomic surveillance to detect and track viral variants. There is a debate over how much sequencing effort is necessary in national surveillance programs for SARS-CoV-2 and future pandemic threats. We aimed to investigate the effect of reduced sequencing on surveillance outcomes in a large genomic data set from Switzerland, comprising more than 143k sequences. We employed a uniform downsampling strategy using 100 iterations each to investigate the effects of fewer available sequences on the surveillance outcomes: (i) first detection of variants of concern (VOCs), (ii) speed of introduction of VOCs, (iii) diversity of lineages, (iv) first cluster detection of VOCs, (v) density of active clusters, and (vi) geographic spread of clusters. The impact of downsampling on VOC detection is disparate for the three VOC lineages, but many outcomes including introduction and cluster detection could be recapitulated even with only 35% of the original sequencing effort. The effect on the observed speed of introduction and first detection of clusters was more sensitive to reduced sequencing effort for some VOCs, in particular Omicron and Delta, respectively. A genomic surveillance program needs a balance between societal benefits and costs. While the overall national dynamics of the pandemic could be recapitulated by a reduced sequencing effort, the effect is strongly lineage-dependent-something that is unknown at the time of sequencing-and comes at the cost of accuracy, in particular for tracking the emergence of potential VOCs.IMPORTANCESwitzerland had one of the most comprehensive genomic surveillance systems during the COVID-19 pandemic. Such programs need to strike a balance between societal benefits and program costs. Our study aims to answer the question: How would surveillance outcomes have changed had we sequenced less? We find that some outcomes but also certain viral lineages are more affected than others by sequencing less. However, sequencing to around a third of the original effort still captured many important outcomes for the variants of concern such as their first detection but affected more strongly other measures like the detection of first transmission clusters for some lineages. Our work highlights the importance of setting predefined targets for a national genomic surveillance program based on which sequencing effort should be determined. Additionally, the use of a centralized surveillance platform facilitates aggregating data on a national level for rapid public health responses as well as post-analyses.

Risk stratification of patients with SARS-CoV-2 by tissue factor expression in circulating extracellular vesicles.

Inflammatory response following SARS-CoV-2 infection results in substantial increase of amounts of intravascular pro-coagulant extracellular vesicles (EVs) expressing tissue factor (CD142) on their surface. CD142-EV turned out to be useful as diagnostic biomarker in COVID-19 patients. Here we aimed at studying the prognostic capacity of CD142-EV in SARS-CoV-2 infection. Expression of CD142-EV was evaluated in 261 subjects admitted to hospital for pneumonia and with a positive molecular test for SARS-CoV-2. The study population consisted of a discovery cohort of selected patients (n = 60) and an independent validation cohort including unselected consecutive enrolled patients (n = 201). CD142-EV levels were correlated with post-hospitalization course of the disease and compared to the clinically available 4C Mortality Score as referral. CD142-EV showed a reliable performance to predict patient prognosis in the discovery cohort (AUC = 0.906) with an accuracy of 81.7%, that was confirmed in the validation cohort (AUC = 0.736). Kaplan-Meier curves highlighted a high discrimination power in unselected subjects with CD142-EV being able to stratify the majority of patients according to their prognosis. We obtained a comparable accuracy, being not inferior in terms of prediction of patients' prognosis and risk of mortality, with 4C Mortality Score. The expression of surface vesicular CD142 and its reliability as prognostic marker was technically validated using different immunocapture strategies and assays. The detection of CD142 on EV surface gains considerable interest as risk stratification tool to support clinical decision making in COVID-19.

Circulating extracellular vesicles are endowed with enhanced procoagulant activity in SARS-CoV-2 infection.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection causes an acute respiratory syndrome accompanied by multi-organ damage that implicates a prothrombotic state leading to widespread microvascular clots. The causes of such coagulation abnormalities are unknown. The receptor tissue factor, also known as CD142, is often associated with cell-released extracellular vesicles (EV). In this study, we aimed to characterize surface antigens profile of circulating EV in COVID-19 patients and their potential implication as procoagulant agents. METHODS: We analyzed serum-derived EV from 67 participants who underwent nasopharyngeal swabs molecular test for suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection (34 positives and 33 negatives) and from 16 healthy controls (HC), as referral. A sub-analysis was performed on subjects who developed pneumonia (n = 28). Serum-derived EV were characterized for their surface antigen profile and tested for their procoagulant activity. A validation experiment was performed pre-treating EV with anti-CD142 antibody or with recombinant FVIIa. Serum TNF-α levels were measured by ELISA. FINDINGS: Profiling of EV antigens revealed a surface marker signature that defines circulating EV in COVID-19. A combination of seven surface molecules (CD49e, CD209, CD86, CD133/1, CD69, CD142, and CD20) clustered COVID (+) versus COVID (-) patients and HC. CD142 showed the highest discriminating performance at both multivariate models and ROC curve analysis. Noteworthy, we found that CD142 exposed onto surface of EV was biologically active. CD142 activity was higher in COVID (+) patients and correlated with TNF-α serum levels. INTERPRETATION: In SARS-CoV-2 infection the systemic inflammatory response results in cell-release of substantial amounts of procoagulant EV that may act as clotting initiation agents, contributing to disease severity. FUNDING: Cardiocentro Ticino Institute, Ente ospedaliero Cantonale, Lugano-Switzerland.

Control of Raw Pork Liver Sausage Production Can Reduce the Prevalence of HEV Infection.

After an acute hepatitis E (HEV) outbreak in Southern Switzerland, in January 2017 the local public health authorities started an active program of food chain control and public education. In this retrospective study, we analysed all laboratory-confirmed acute cases of HEV infection diagnosed between 2014 and 2020. In the period before the public health intervention, the number of cases increased steadily from 2014 (4 of 40 tests, 10%) reaching a peak in the last quarter of 2016 (42 of 285 tests, 14.7 %). Afterwards, the number of positive cases decreased steadily, reaching its lowest value (0.3%) in the second quarter of 2019. There was a statistically significant difference between the frequency of positive cases and period of testing, i.e., before and after the introduction of the public health interventions. Our study shows that active public health measures to control sausages containing raw pork liver can reduce the prevalence of HEV infection.

Diabetes mellitus is a risk factor for prolonged SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding in lower respiratory tract samples of critically ill patients.

PURPOSE: The length of time a critically ill coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patient remains infectious and should therefore be isolated remains unknown. This prospective study was undertaken in critically ill patients to evaluate the reliability of single negative real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) in lower tracheal aspirates (LTA) in predicting a second negative test and to analyze clinical factors potentially influencing the viral shedding. METHODS: From April 9, 2020 onwards, intubated COVID-19 patients treated in the intensive care unit were systematically evaluated for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by RT-PCR of nasopharyngeal swabs and LTA. The time to negativity was defined as the time between the onset of symptoms and the viral clearance in LTA. In order to identify risk factors for prolonged viral shedding, we used univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Forty-eight intubated SARS-CoV-2 patients were enrolled. Overall, we observed that the association of the first negative RT-PCR with a second negative result was 96.7%. Median viral shedding was 25 (IQR: 21.5-28) days since symptoms' onset. In the univariate Cox model analysis, type 2 diabetes mellitus was associated with a prolonged viral RNA shedding (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.06-3.11, p = 0.04). In the multivariate Cox model analysis, type 2 diabetes was associated with a prolonged viral RNA shedding (HR: 0.31, 95% CI: 0.11-0.89, p = 0.029). CONCLUSION: Intubated patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus may have prolonged SARS-CoV-2 shedding. In critically ill COVID-19 patients, one negative LTA should be sufficient to assess and exclude infectivity.

Burkholderia cepacia complex outbreak originating from contaminated wash gloves.

Burkholderia cepacia complex isolates were detected from four patients who were admitted to the heart centre of southern Switzerland, between April and June 2019. An outbreak investigation was conducted. The three available patient samples were whole genome sequenced, showing that they all are Burkholderia cepacia species, and that two are identical. Isolates grown from sealed packages of disinfectant-free wash gloves used for personal hygiene were also genomically identical. The wash gloves appear to be the origin of the outbreak, contamination of which most likely occurred at the manufacturing site.

Neurologic complications of acute hepatitis E virus infection.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prevalence and clinical features of neurologic involvement in patients with acute hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection in Southern Switzerland. METHODS: Among 1,940 consecutive patients investigated for acute hepatitis E, we identified 141 cases of acute of HEV infection (anti-HEV immunoglobulin M and immunoglobulin G both reactive and/or HEV RNA positive) between June 2014 and September 2017. Neurologic cases were followed up for 6 months. We compared patients with and without neurologic symptoms. RESULTS: Neurologic symptoms occurred in 43 acute HEV cases (30.4%) and consisted of neuralgic amyotrophy (NA, n = 15, 10.6%) and myalgia (n = 28, 19.8%). All NA cases were immunocompetent. Men had higher odds (OR = 5.2, CI 1.12-24.0, p = 0.03) of developing NA after infection with HEV, and in 3 couples simultaneously infected with HEV, only men developed NA. Bilateral involvement of NA was predominant (2:1) and occurred only in men. Seven NA cases were viremic (all genotype 3), but HEV was undetectable in their CSF. In the acute phase of NA, 9 patients were treated with intravenous immunoglobulin and 4 with prednisone, reporting no side effects and improvement in pain and strength. Myalgia occurred both without (n = 16) or with (n = 12) concomitant elevated serum creatinine kinase. Seven cases with myalgia in the shoulder girdle did not have muscle weakness ("forme fruste" of NA). CONCLUSIONS: Neurologic symptoms occurred in one-third of acute HEV infections and consisted of NA and myalgia. NA seems to occur more frequently in men infected by HEV and has a predominant (but not exclusive) bilateral involvement.

Complete Genome Sequences of Two Swiss Hepatitis E Virus Isolates from Human Stool and Raw Pork Sausage.

We present here the full-length genome sequences of two hepatitis E virus genotype 3 (HEV-3) isolates from a human stool sample from a patient with acute hepatitis and a raw sausage containing pig liver. Sequence analysis implies that Swiss HEV isolates may form a novel subgroup of HEV-3 viruses.

Local Outbreak of Listeria monocytogenes Serotype 4b Sequence Type 6 Due to Contaminated Meat Pâté.

In January and February 2016, five cases of confirmed and two cases of probable infection due to Listeria monocytogenes serotype 4b, sequence type (ST) 6 belonging to a single pulsed-field gel electrophoresis pulsotype pattern were registered in a region of southern Switzerland. L. monocytogenes was detected in blood samples (four cases) and pleural fluid (one case). Furthermore, L. monocytogenes 4b ST6 was detected in a stool sample of an asymptomatic person exposed to a common food. Forthwith, the food safety authority and a local gourmet meat producer reported L. monocytogenes contamination of meat pâté. Analysis of further food and environmental samples from the premises of the producer yielded isolates matching the clinical strains and confirmed the presence of L. monocytogenes 4b ST6 in the mincing machine as the cause of the food contamination.

Therapeutic Immune Recovery and Reduction of CXCR4-Tropic HIV-1.

BACKGROUND: In the absence of therapy, CXCR4 (X4)-tropic human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) increases over time, associated with accelerated disease progression. In contrast, the majority of patients receiving long-term combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) present with CCR5 (R5)-tropic HIV-1 variants. It is unclear whether cART itself mediates the reduction of X4-tropic HIV-1. The current study aimed at assessing the tropism of viral integrates in patients' blood during fully suppressive cART. METHODS: The relative frequencies of X4-tropic proviral HIV-1 variants were determined by means of next-generation sequencing (False Positive Rate (FPR), 3.5%; R5- or X4 tropic variants occurring at less than 2% of the total virus population) for 35 treated patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study and followed longitudinally over time. Full viral suppression and a continuous CD4 T-cell recovery during cART were documented for all patients. Viral phylogenetic changes and sequence evolution were analyzed. RESULTS: The majority of patients (80%) experienced no frequency increase in X4-tropic proviruses during therapy. Although some proviral sequence evolution was demonstrable in >50% of these patients during therapy, this growing viral diversity was in no case paralleled by the emergence or expansion of X4-tropic provirus variants. In the remaining 20% of patients, the documented expansion of X4-tropic provirus was based on the outgrowth of single viral variants from minority populations already present before therapy initiation. CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates that X4-tropic HIV sharply declines in most patients during successful therapy, which indicates a preferential tropism-dependent provirus elimination in the immunocompetent host. The recently implemented World Health Organization strategies of immediate therapy initiation are fully in line with this gradual loss of X4 tropism during therapy. Moreover, the early use of coreceptor antagonists against the remaining CCR5-tropic viruses may be indicated.

Decreasing Proportion of Recent Infections among Newly Diagnosed HIV-1 Cases in Switzerland, 2008 to 2013 Based on Line-Immunoassay-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: HIV surveillance requires monitoring of new HIV diagnoses and differentiation of incident and older infections. In 2008, Switzerland implemented a system for monitoring incident HIV infections based on the results of a line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) mandatorily conducted for HIV confirmation and type differentiation (HIV-1, HIV-2) of all newly diagnosed patients. Based on this system, we assessed the proportion of incident HIV infection among newly diagnosed cases in Switzerland during 2008-2013. METHODS AND RESULTS: Inno-Lia antibody reaction patterns recorded in anonymous HIV notifications to the federal health authority were classified by 10 published algorithms into incident (up to 12 months) or older infections. Utilizing these data, annual incident infection estimates were obtained in two ways, (i) based on the diagnostic performance of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident', (ii) based on the window-periods of the algorithms and utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration'. From 2008-2013, 3'851 HIV notifications were received. Adult HIV-1 infections amounted to 3'809 cases, and 3'636 of them (95.5%) contained Inno-Lia data. Incident infection totals calculated were similar for the performance- and window-based methods, amounting on average to 1'755 (95% confidence interval, 1588-1923) and 1'790 cases (95% CI, 1679-1900), respectively. More than half of these were among men who had sex with men. Both methods showed a continuous decline of annual incident infections 2008-2013, totaling -59.5% and -50.2%, respectively. The decline of incident infections continued even in 2012, when a 15% increase in HIV notifications had been observed. This increase was entirely due to older infections. Overall declines 2008-2013 were of similar extent among the major transmission groups. CONCLUSIONS: Inno-Lia based incident HIV-1 infection surveillance proved useful and reliable. It represents a free, additional public health benefit of the use of this relatively costly test for HIV confirmation and type differentiation.

HBV genotypes and response to tenofovir disoproxil fumarate in HIV/HBV-coinfected persons.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) genotypes can influence treatment outcome in HBV-monoinfected and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HBV-coinfected patients. Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) plays a pivotal role in antiretroviral therapy (ART) of HIV/HBV-coinfected patients. The influence of HBV genotypes on the response to antiviral drugs, particularly TDF, is poorly understood. METHODS: HIV/HBV-co-infected participants with detectable HBV DNA prior to TDF therapy were selected from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. HBV genotypes were identified and resistance testing was performed prior to antiviral therapy, and in patients with delayed treatment response (>6 months). The efficacy of TDF to suppress HBV (HBV DNA <20 IU/mL) and the influence of HBV genotypes were determined. RESULTS: 143 HIV/HBV-coinfected participants with detectable HBV DNA were identified. The predominant HBV genotypes were A (82 patients, 57 %); and D (35 patients, 24 %); 20 patients (14 %) were infected with multiple genotypes (3 % A + D and 11 % A + G); and genotypes B, C and E were each present in two patients (1 %). TDF completely suppressed HBV DNA in 131 patients (92 %) within 6 months; and in 12 patients (8 %), HBV DNA suppression was delayed. No HBV resistance mutations to TDF were found in patients with delayed response, but all were infected with HBV genotype A (among these, 5 patients with genotype A + G), and all had previously been exposed to lamivudine. CONCLUSION: In HIV/HBV-coinfected patients, infection with multiple HBV genotypes was more frequent than previously reported. The large majority of patients had an undetectable HBV viral load at six months of TDF-containing ART. In patients without viral suppression, no TDF-related resistance mutations were found. The role of specific genotypes and prior lamivudine treatment in the delayed response to TDF warrant further investigation.

Coxsackievirus A6 and Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease: Three Case Reports of Familial Child-to-Immunocompetent Adult Transmission and a Literature Review.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious viral infection characterized by typical maculopapular or vesicular eruptions on the hands and feet and in the oral cavity. It affects predominantly children and/or immunocompromised adults. It usually follows a benign and self-limiting course. However, HFMD cases with severe or lethal complications such as encephalitis, meningitis, pulmonary edema and myocarditis have also been reported, mostly in children, but also in adults. High infectivity of HFMD has contributed to several large outbreaks of this disease in recent decades in East and Southeast Asia, the United States and Finland. The most common pathogens were Coxsackievirus A16, Enterovirus 71 and, recently, also Coxsackieviruses A6 and A10. Differences in the course of HFMD have been observed, depending on the virus type. Recently, many cases of atypical HFMD have been described in the literature with unusual morphology and/or localization of skin lesions. Atypical HFMD manifestations including vesiculobullous exanthema, often on the trunk or extremities, and perioral zone involvement were often caused by Coxsackievirus A6 infections. We present 3 cases of familial transmission of HFMD caused by Coxsackievirus A6 with some atypical features, benign course and complete recovery among immunocompetent adults.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Infection of the central nervous system caused by varicella zoster virus reactivation: a retrospective case series study.

BACKGROUND: Recent data suggest that varicella zoster virus (VZV)-associated complications of the central nervous system (CNS) are more common and diverse than previously thought. The main purpose of this article is to describe the clinical characteristics and the outcome of patients suffering from meningitis and encephalitis caused by VZV reactivation. METHODS: A retrospective case study of adult patients (≥16 years old) diagnosed with a VZV reactivation in the CNS was performed. The cases were identified by a qualitative PCR DNA assay of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) at the Regional Hospital of Lugano between January 1, 2003 and July 31, 2010. RESULTS: Eleven out of 519 CSF samples (2.1%), submitted from patients with a clinical diagnosis of viral meningitis or encephalitis, were positive for VZV. A vesiculo-pustular skin eruption was observed in only five patients (45%). In six cases (55%), a systemic inflammatory syndrome was absent. The clinical outcome was favorable in eight patients (73%). Only one out of 11 patients (9%) died. The four patients with encephalitis had a less favorable prognosis: one patient recovered without residual neurological sequelae; two had a chronic neuropsychological handicap, speech difficulties, facial nerve palsy, and focal seizures; one patient died. We estimated an annual incidence rate of VZV infection of the CNS of 1.02/100,000 inhabitants for southern Switzerland. CONCLUSIONS: Screening of CSF for VZV by PCR is recommended for all patients with encephalitis and for those with viral meningitis of unclear origin in order to better target antiviral treatment.

Genome-wide association study identifies variants associated with progression of liver fibrosis from HCV infection.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Polymorphisms in IL28B were shown to affect clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in genome-wide association (GWA) studies. Only a fraction of patients with chronic HCV infection develop liver fibrosis, a process that might also be affected by genetic factors. We performed a 2-stage GWA study of liver fibrosis progression related to HCV infection. METHODS: We studied well-characterized HCV-infected patients of European descent who underwent liver biopsies before treatment. We defined various liver fibrosis phenotypes on the basis of METAVIR scores, with and without taking the duration of HCV infection into account. Our GWA analyses were conducted on a filtered primary cohort of 1161 patients using 780,650 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We genotyped 96 SNPs with P values <5 × 10(-5) from an independent replication cohort of 962 patients. We then assessed the most interesting replicated SNPs using DNA samples collected from 219 patients who participated in separate GWA studies of HCV clearance. RESULTS: In the combined cohort of 2342 HCV-infected patients, the SNPs rs16851720 (in the total sample) and rs4374383 (in patients who received blood transfusions) were associated with fibrosis progression (P(combined) = 8.9 × 10(-9) and 1.1 × 10(-9), respectively). The SNP rs16851720 is located within RNF7, which encodes an antioxidant that protects against apoptosis. The SNP rs4374383, together with another replicated SNP, rs9380516 (P(combined) = 5.4 × 10(-7)), were linked to the functionally related genes MERTK and TULP1, which encode factors involved in phagocytosis of apoptotic cells by macrophages. CONCLUSIONS: Our GWA study identified several susceptibility loci for HCV-induced liver fibrosis; these were linked to genes that regulate apoptosis. Apoptotic control might therefore be involved in liver fibrosis.

Diagnostic performance of line-immunoassay based algorithms for incident HIV-1 infection.

BACKGROUND: Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS) provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have previously demonstrated that a patient's antibody reaction pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIA™ HIV I/II Score) provides information on the duration of infection, which is unaffected by clinical, immunological and viral variables. In this report we have set out to determine the diagnostic performance of Inno-Lia algorithms for identifying incident infections in patients with known duration of infection and evaluated the algorithms in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. METHODS: Diagnostic sensitivity was determined in 527 treatment-naive patients infected for up to 12 months. Specificity was determined in 740 patients infected for longer than 12 months. Plasma was tested by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident (< = 12 m) or older infection by 26 different algorithms. Incident infection rates (IIR) were calculated based on diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm and the rule that the total of incident results is the sum of true-incident and false-incident results, which can be calculated by means of the pre-determined sensitivity and specificity. RESULTS: The 10 best algorithms had a mean raw sensitivity of 59.4% and a mean specificity of 95.1%. Adjustment for overrepresentation of patients in the first quarter year of infection further reduced the sensitivity. In the preferred model, the mean adjusted sensitivity was 37.4%. Application of the 10 best algorithms to four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications totalling 2'595 patients yielded a mean IIR of 0.35 in 2005/6 (baseline) and of 0.45, 0.42 and 0.35 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The increase between baseline and 2008 and the ensuing decreases were highly significant. Other adjustment models yielded different absolute IIR, although the relative changes between the cohorts were identical for all models. CONCLUSIONS: The method can be used for comparing IIR in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. The use of several different algorithms in combination, each with its own sensitivity and specificity to detect incident infection, is advisable as this reduces the impact of individual imperfections stemming primarily from relatively low sensitivities and sampling bias.