Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Nepal from 1990 to 2019: The Global Burden of Disease Study, 2019.

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) have emerged as the leading cause of deaths worldwide in 2019. Globally, more than three-quarters of the total deaths due to CVDs occur in low- and middle-income countries like Nepal. Although increasing number of studies is available on the prevalence of CVDs, there is limited evidence presenting a complete picture on the burden of CVDs in Nepal. In this context, this study aims to provide comprehensive picture on the burden of CVDs in the country. This study is based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, which is a multinational collaborative research covering 204 countries and territories across the world. The estimations made from the study are publicly available in the GBD Compare webpage operated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington. This article makes use of those data available on the GBD Compare page of IHME website to present the comprehensive picture of the burden of CVDs in Nepal. Overall, in 2019, there were an estimated 1,214,607 cases, 46,501 deaths, and 1,104,474 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to CVDs in Nepal. The age-standardized mortality rates for CVDs witnessed a marginal reduction from 267.60 per 100,000 population in 1990 to 245.38 per 100,000 population in 2019. The proportion of deaths and DALYs attributable to CVDs increased from 9.77% to 24.04% and from 4.82% to 11.89%, respectively, between 1990 and 2019. Even though there are relatively stable rates of age-standardized prevalence, and mortality, the proportion of deaths and DALYs attributed to CVDs have risen sharply between 1990 and 2019. Besides implementing the preventive measures, the health system also needs to prepare itself for the delivery of long-term care of patients with CVDs which could have significant implications on resources and operations.

Burden of Diabetes Mellitus in Nepal: An Analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Globally, the number of people living with diabetes mellitus (DM) increased by 62% between 1990 and 2019, affecting 463 million people in 2019, and is projected to increase further by 51% by 2045. The increasing burden of DM that requires chronic care could have a considerable cost implication in the health system, particularly in resource constraint settings like Nepal. In this context, this study attempts to present the burden of DM in terms of prevalence, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). The study is based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, a multinational collaborative research, led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations. In the study, the overall prevalence of DM was estimated using DisMod MR-2.1, a Bayesian metaregression model. DALYs were estimated summing years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. There were a total of 1,412,180 prevalent cases of DM, 3,474 deaths and 189,727 DALYs, due to DM in 2019. All-age prevalence rate and the age-standardized prevalence rate of DM stood at 4,642.83 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 4,178.58-5,137.74) and 5,735.58 (95% UI: 5,168.74-6327.73) cases per 100,000 population, respectively, in 2019. In 2019, 1.8% (95% UI: 1.54, 2.07) of total deaths were from DM, which is a more than three-fold increase from the proportion of deaths attributed in 1990 (0.43%, 95% UI: 0.36, 0.5) with most of these deaths being from DM type 2. In 2019, a total of 189,727 disability adjusted life years (DALYs) were attributable to DM of which 105,950 DALYs were among males, and the remaining 83,777 DALYs were among females. Overall, between 1990 and 2019, the DALYs, attributable to Type 1 and 2 DM combined and for Type 2 DM only, have increased gradually across both sexes. However, the DALYs per 100,000 attributable to DM have slightly reduced across both sexes in that time. There is a high burden of DM in Nepal in 2019 with a steep increase in the proportion of deaths attributable to DM in Nepal which could pose a serious challenge to the health system. Primary prevention of DM requires collaborative efforts from multiple sectors. Meanwhile, the current federal structure could be an opportunity for integrated, locally tailored public health and clinical interventions for the prevention of the disease and its consequences.

Progress in Reducing Inequalities in Reproductive, Maternal, Newborn and Child Health Services in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Equity has emerged as a cross-cutting theme in the health sector, and countries across the world are striving to ensure that all people have access to the health services they need without undue financial hardship and educational, social, cultural and geographical barriers. In this context, this analysis has attempted to analyse Nepal's progress in reducing inequalities in reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services based on economic status and place of residence. METHODS: In this analysis, we have used data available from the web version of the Health Equity Assessment Toolkit, a data visualisation tool developed by the World Health Organisation. We have analysed the inequalities in terms of a composite coverage index which combines eight reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health interventions along the continuum of care. RESULTS: Composite coverage of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health services was 43% in 2001 which increased to 65% in 2016. The absolute difference in composite coverage of the services between the lowest and highest wealth quintiles decreased from 28-percentage points in 2001 to 8-percentage points in 2016. The difference in service coverage between the urban and rural settings reduced from 21-percentage points to six percentage points in the period. Among the eight various services, births attended by skilled birth attendants is the indicator with the highest scope for improvement.   Conclusions: Inequalities based on wealth quintiles and residence places have narrowed from 2001 to 2016. Additional efforts in expanding skilled birth attendants and antenatal care service coverage among the poorest quintile and rural residents could further improve the coverage of the indicators at the national level and narrow down the inequalities.

Mortality and risk factors of disease in Nepal: Trend and projections from 1990 to 2040.

BACKGROUND: Between 1990 and 2017, Nepal experienced a shift in the burden of disease from communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional (CMNN) diseases to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). With an increasing ageing population and life-style changes including tobacco use, harmful alcohol consumption, unhealthy diets, and insufficient physical activity, the proportion of total deaths from NCDs will continue to increase. An analysis of current diseases pattern and projections of the trends informs planning of health interventions. This analysis aims to project the mortality and risk factor of disease until 2040, based on past trends. METHODS: This study uses secondary data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study which analyses historic data from 1990 to 2016 to predict key variables such as, the mortality rates, life expectancy and Years of Life Lost for different causes of death from 2017 to 2040. 'GBD Foresight Visualization', a visualisation tool publicly available in the webpage of Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation was the source of data for this analysis. GBD forecasting uses three-component modelling process: the first component captures variations due to risk factors and interventions, the second takes into consideration the variation due to measures of development quantified as social development index and the third uses an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. We extracted Nepal specific data from it and reported number of deaths, mortality rates (per 100,000 population) as well as causes of death for the period 1990 to 2040. RESULTS: In 1990, CMNN diseases were responsible for approximately two-thirds (63.6%) of total deaths in Nepal. The proportion of the deaths from the CMNN diseases has reduced to 26.8% in 2015 and is estimated to be about a fifth of the 1990 figure (12.47%) in 2040. Conversely, deaths from NCDs reflect an upward trend. NCDs claimed a third of total deaths (29.91%) in the country in 1990, while in 2015, were responsible for about two-thirds of the total deaths (63.31%). In 2040, it is predicted that NCDs will contribute to over two-thirds (78.64%) of total deaths in the country. Less than a tenth (6.49%) of the total deaths in Nepal in 1990 were associated with injuries which increased to 13.04% in 2015 but is projected to decrease to 8.89% in 2040. In 1990, metabolic risk factors including high systolic blood pressure, high total cholesterol, high fasting plasma glucose, high body mass index and impaired kidney functions collectively contributed to a tenth of the total deaths (10.38%) in Nepal, whereas, in 2040 more than a third (37.31%) of the total deaths in the country could be attributed to it. CONCLUSION: A reverse of the situation in 1990, NCDs are predicted to be the leading cause of deaths and metabolic risk factors are predicted to contribute to the highest proportion of deaths in 2040. NCDs could demand a major share of resources within the health sector requiring extensive multi-sectoral prevention measures, re-allocation of resources and re-organisation of the health system to cater for long-term care.

Determinants of home delivery in Nepal - A disaggregated analysis of marginalised and non-marginalised women from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey.

INTRODUCTION: In Nepal, a substantial proportion of women still deliver their child at home. Disparities have been observed in utilisation of institutional delivery and skilled birth attendant services. We performed a disaggregated analysis among marginalised and non-marginalised women to identify if different factors are associated with home delivery among these groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study used data from the 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey. It involves the analysis of 3,837 women who had experienced at least one live birth in the five years preceding the survey. Women were categorised as marginalised and non-marginalised based on ethnic group. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed to identify factors associated with home delivery. RESULTS: A higher proportion of marginalised women delivered at home (47%) than non-marginalised women (26%). Compared to non-marginalised women (35%), a larger proportion of marginalised women (64%) felt that it was not necessary to give birth at health facility. The multivariable analysis indicated an independent association of having no or basic education, belonging to middle, poorer and the poorest wealth quintile, residing in Province 2 and not having completed of four antenatal care visits per protocol with home delivery among both marginalised and non-marginalised women. Whereas residing in a rural area, residing in Province 7, and at a distance of >30 minutes to a health facility were factors independently associated with home delivery only among marginalised women. CONCLUSION: We conclude that poor education, poor economic status, non-completion of four ANC visits and belonging to Province 2 particularly determined either group of women to deliver at home, whereas residing in rural areas, living far from health facility, and belonging to Province 7 determined marginalised women to deliver at home. Preventing mothers from delivering at home would thus require focusing on specific geographical areas besides considering wider socio-economic determinants.