Population Enumeration and Household Utilization Survey Methods in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH): Shigella Surveillance Study.

Background: Accurate estimation of diarrhea incidence from facility-based surveillance requires estimating the population at risk and accounting for case patients who do not seek care. The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will characterize population denominators and healthcare-seeking behavior proportions to calculate incidence rates of Shigella diarrhea in children aged 6-35 months across 7 sites in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Methods: The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study will use a hybrid surveillance design, supplementing facility-based surveillance with population-based surveys to estimate population size and the proportion of children with diarrhea brought for care at EFGH health facilities. Continuous data collection over a 24 month period captures seasonality and ensures representative sampling of the population at risk during the period of facility-based enrollments. Study catchment areas are broken into randomized clusters, each sized to be feasibly enumerated by individual field teams. Conclusions: The methods presented herein aim to minimize the challenges associated with hybrid surveillance, such as poor parity between survey area coverage and facility coverage, population fluctuations, seasonal variability, and adjustments to care-seeking behavior.

The Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella Surveillance Study in Malawi.

Background: Malawi is among 7 countries participating in the Enterics for Global Health (EFGH) Shigella surveillance study, which aims to determine the incidence of medically attended diarrhea attributed to Shigella, a leading bacterial cause of diarrhea in children in low-resource settings. Methods: We describe the EFGH study site in the densely populated informal settlement of Ndirande Township, Blantyre, Malawi. We explore the site's geographical location, demographic characteristics, and the healthcare-seeking behavior of its population, particularly for childhood diarrhea. We also describe the management of childhood diarrhea at the health facility, and the associated challenges to attaining optimum adherence to local and national guidelines at the site. Conclusions: Our overarching aim is to improve global health through understanding and mitigating the impact of diarrhea attributed to Shigella.

Understanding the fine-scale heterogeneity and spatial drivers of malaria transmission in Kenya using model-based geostatistical methods.

Malaria remains a public health concern. Monitoring the fine-scale heterogeneity of the malaria burden enables more targeted control efforts. Although malaria indicator surveys (MIS) have been crucial in evaluating the progress of malaria control interventions, they are only designed to provide a cross-sectional national and regional malaria disease burden. Recent advances in geostatistical methods allow us to interpolate national survey data to describe subnational disease burden that is crucial in informing targeted control. A binomial geostatistical model employing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) parameter estimation methods is used to understand the spatial drivers of malaria risk in Kenya and to predict malaria risk at a fine-scale resolution, including identifying hotspots. A total of 11,549 children aged six months to 14 years from 207 clusters were sampled in this survey and used in the present analysis. The national malaria prevalence based on the data was 8.4%, with the highest in the lake endemic zone (18.1%) and the lowest in the low-risk zone (<1%). The analysis shows that elevation, proportion of insectcide treated net (ITN) distributed, rainfall, temperature and urbanization covariates are all significant predictors of malaria transmission. The 5x5 Km resolution maps show that malaria is heterogeneous in Kenya, with hotspot areas in the lake endemic area, the coastal areas, and some parts of the shores of Lake Turkana and Kajiado. The high-resolution malaria prevalence maps produced as part of the analysis have shown that Kenya has additional malaria hotspots, especially in areas least expected. These findings call for a rethinking of malaria burden classification in some regions for effective planning, implementation, resource mobilization, monitoring, and evaluation of malaria interventions in the country.

Malaria Burden Stratification in Malawi- A report of a consultative workshop to inform the 2023-2030 Malawi Malaria Strategic Plan.

Background: Malawi's National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) is developing a new strategic plan for 2023-2030 to combat malaria and recognizes that a blanket approach to malaria interventions is no longer feasible. To inform this new strategy, the NMCP set up a task force comprising 18 members from various sectors, which convened a meeting to stratify the malaria burden in Malawi and recommend interventions for each stratum. Methods: The burden stratification workshop took place from November 29 to December 2, 2022, in Blantyre, Malawi, and collated essential data on malaria burden indicators, such as incidence, prevalence, and mortality. Workshop participants reviewed the malaria burden and intervention coverage data to describe the current status and identified the districts as a appropriate administrative level for stratification and action. Two scenarios were developed for the stratification, based on composites of three variables. Scenario 1 included incidence, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality, while Scenario 2 included total malaria cases, prevalence, and under-five all-cause mortality counts. The task force developed four burden strata (highest, high, moderate, and low) for each scenario, resulting in a final list of districts assigned to each stratum. Results: The task force concluded with 10 districts in the highest-burden stratum (Nkhotakota, Salima, Mchinji, Dowa, Ntchisi, Mwanza, Likoma, Lilongwe, Kasungu and Mangochi) 11 districts in the high burden stratum (Chitipa, Rumphi, Nkhata Bay, Dedza, Ntcheu, Neno, Thyolo, Nsanje, Zomba, Mzimba and Mulanje) and seven districts in the moderate burden stratum (Karonga, Chikwawa, Balaka, Machinga, Phalombe, Blantyre, and Chiradzulu). There were no districts in the low-burden stratum. Conclusion: The next steps for the NMCP are to review context-specific issues driving malaria transmission and recommend interventions for each stratum. Overall, this burden stratification workshop provides a critical foundation for developing a successful malaria strategic plan for Malawi.

Unravelling the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on childhood malaria in Malawi.

BACKGROUND: To achieve malaria elimination it is essential to understand the impact of insecticide-treated net (ITNs) programmes. Here, the impact of ITN access and use on malaria prevalence in children in Malawi was investigated using Malaria Indicator Survey (MIS) data. METHODS: MIS data from 2012, 2014 and 2017 were used to investigate the relationship between malaria prevalence in children (6-59 months) and ITN use. Generalized linear modelling (GLM), geostatistical mixed regression modelling and non-stationary GLM were undertaken to evaluate trends, spatial patterns and local dynamics, respectively. RESULTS: Malaria prevalence in Malawi was 27.1% (95% CI 23.1-31.2%) in 2012 and similar in both 2014 (32.1%, 95% CI 25.5-38.7) and 2017 (23.9%, 95% CI 20.3-27.4%). ITN coverage and use increased during the same time period, with household ITN access growing from 19.0% (95% CI 15.6-22.3%) of households with at least 1 ITN for every 2 people sleeping in the house the night before to 41.7% (95% CI 39.1-44.4%) and ITN use from 41.1% (95% CI 37.3-44.9%) of the population sleeping under an ITN the previous night to 57.4% (95% CI 55.0-59.9%). Both the geostatistical and non-stationary GLM regression models showed child malaria prevalence had a negative association with ITN population access and a positive association with ITN use although affected by large uncertainties. The non-stationary GLM highlighted the spatital heterogeneity in the relationship between childhood malaria and ITN dynamics across the country. CONCLUSION: Malaria prevalence in children under five had a negative association with ITN population access and a positive association with ITN use, with spatial heterogeneity in these relationships across Malawi. This study presents an important modelling approach that allows malaria control programmes to spatially disentangle the impact of interventions on malaria cases.

Burns among adults in a major Malawian burn unit: epidemiology and factors associated with prolonged hospital stay.

Aim: This study sought to describe the epidemiology of burns and factors associated with prolonged hospital stay among adult patients admitted in the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital burns unit. Methods: All files of patients aged at least 17 years and admitted in the Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital burns unit between 1 June 2007 and 31 May 2017 with acute burns, were reviewed. Data on socio-demographic characteristics, injuries sustained, comorbidities, length of hospital stay, and clinical outcomes were extracted from the files. Summary statistics, independent sample T-test, and odds ratios were computed to determine the distribution and associations of the variables collected. Results: A total of 515 patient files, all from rural or informal urban settlements, were reviewed. The median age at the time of presentation was 32 years (IQR: 25-45), and 52% (n=279) were male. Most of the burns occurred at home (81.0%; n=379), were of flame etiology (75.7%; n=385), and were reported to have been accidental (94.7%, n=445). The mean monthly rate of new burn injury patients was highest in the cool-dry season, and epileptic seizures were a common precedent of burn injury (30.7%; n=158). Most (62.7%) of the patients with recorded burn sites sustained multiple burns injuries, and more than half of the patients had upper and lower limb burns (64.6% & 59.5% respectively). Thirty patients sustained additional non-burn injuries, and 26.4% (n=132) of all patients with recorded outcomes died in the hospital. Conclusion: The data on burn injuries among adults presenting at the QECH burns unit suggests the existence of socio-economic inequalities associated with burn incidence. There is also a need for improvement in the quality and uptake of epilepsy care in primary care facilities.

The diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB/RIF Ultra on Pericardial, Pleural and Ascitic cohort study fluids for diagnosis of extra-pulmonary Tuberculosis at a referral hospital in Malawi.

Background: Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis (EPTB) accounts for 15% of the 1.4 million patients with TB notified in 2019. EPTB carries a high risk of mortality and so early diagnosis and treatment are important to reduce this risk. Diagnosis of EPTB in low- and middle-income countries is challenging. This study investigated the diagnostic performance of Xpert MTB Ultra for the diagnosis of EPTB (pericardial, pleural, and ascitic fluid) in adults at a referral hospital in Malawi. Methods: Adults with suspected extra-pulmonary TB were screened for evidence of extra-pulmonary fluid and tested for TB using Xpert MTB Ultra, mycobacterial culture, and a Focused Abdominal Sonography in HIV-associated TB (FASH scan). The diagnostic performance of the Xpert MTB Ultra was compared to mycobacterial culture and a composite reference standard defined as a positive FASH scan or a positive mycobacterial culture or a clinical TB diagnosis (constitutional symptoms not otherwise explained with response to empirical TB treatment). Results: There were 174 patients recruited: 99/174 (57%) pleural, 70/174 (40%) ascitic and 5/174 (3%) pericardial. Overall, 10/174 (6%) had bacteriologically confirmed TB and 30/174 (17%) were started on TB treatment based on a positive FASH scan or a clinical TB diagnosis. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert ultra compared to culture was 83% (95%CI:36%-100%) and 98% (95%CI:94%-99%), respectively. Compared to the composite reference standard, the sensitivity of Xpert Ultra was 17% (95%CI:7%-34%) and specificity was 98% (95%CI:94%-100%). Conclusion: Xpert MTB Ultra provides good diagnostic performance on pleural, pericardial and ascitic fluid with reference to mycobacterial culture. Improved EPTB diagnostic tests are required to improve patient outcomes. We recommend larger multi-centre studies to corroborate our findings.

Isoniazid preventive therapy-related adverse events among Malawian adults on antiretroviral therapy: A cohort study.

Adverse events may be a cause of observed poor completion of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) among people living with HIV in high tuberculosis burden areas. Data on IPT-related adverse events (AE) from sub-Saharan Africa are scarce. We report IPT-related AEs, associated clinical characteristics, and IPT discontinuations in adults who were stable on antiretroviral therapy (ART) when they initiated IPT. Cohort study nested within a randomized, controlled, clinical trial of cotrimoxazole and chloroquine prophylaxis in Malawians aged ≥ 18 years and virologically suppressed on ART. Eight hundred sixty-nine patients were followed for a median of 6 months after IPT initiation. IPT relatedness of AEs was determined retrospectively with the World Health Organization case-causality tool. Frailty survival regression modeling identified factors associated with time to first probably IPT-related AE. The overall IPT-related AE incidence rate was 1.1/person year of observation. IPT relatedness was mostly uncertain and few AEs were severe. Most common were liver and hematological toxicities. Higher age increased risk of a probably IPT-related AE (aHR = 1.02; 95% CI 1.00-1.06; P = .06) and higher weight reduced this risk (aHR = 0.98; 95% CI 0.96-1.00; P = .03). Of 869 patients, 114 (13%) discontinued IPT and 94/114 (82%) discontinuations occurred at the time of a possibly or probably IPT-related AE. We observed a high incidence of mostly mild IPT-related AEs among individuals who were stable on ART. More than 1 in 8 persons discontinued IPT. These findings inform strategies to improve implementation of IPT in adults on ART, including close monitoring of groups at higher risk of IPT-related AEs.

Prevalence and correlates of common mental disorders among children and adolescents in Blantyre-Urban, Malawi.

Background: The high global prevalence of mental disorders justifies the need to quantify their burden in the sub-Saharan Africa where there is a dearth of information. These mental disorders are linked to different socio-demographic factors. Objective: To determine the prevalence of, and factors associated with mental disorders among children and adolescents in Blantyre City, Malawi. Methods: Children and adolescents aged 6 to 17 years were interviewed to determine their socio-demographic characteristics and assess their mental health status using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) and Kiddie Schedule for Affective Disorders and Schizophrenia (K-SADS). Associations between mental disorders and socio-demographic characteristics were tested using Chi-square and logistic regression analysis. Results: The prevalence of symptoms of psychopathology on the SDQ was 7.3% (95%CI 4.8-10.5%) while for the K-SADS was 5.9% (95% CI 3.7%-8.9%). The prevalence of mental disorders across the age ranges of 6 to 12 years and 13 to 17 years was 5.4% and 7.9 % respectively. Males had a higher prevalence (7.1%) compared to females (4.7%). Conduct disorder was most prevalent (3.4%), followed by either type of ADHD-Attention Deficit Hyperactive Disorders (2.0%). Having a single parent (p<0.001), staying with a non-biological guardian (p<0.030), engaging in paid work (p<0.039), not attending school (p<0.019) and having teacher difficulties(p<0.028) were positively associated with a mental disorder. Conclusion: The socio-demographic factors associated with the risk of developing mental disorders may be important targets for mental health intervention programs.

Projecting the cost of introducing typhoid conjugate vaccine (TCV) in the national immunization program in Malawi using a standardized costing framework.

BACKGROUND: There is a substantial typhoid burden in sub-Saharan Africa, and TCV has been introduced in two African countries to date. Decision-makers in Malawi decided to introduce TCV and applied for financial support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance in 2020. The current plan is to introduce TCV as part of the national immunization program in late 2022. The introduction will include a nationwide campaign targeting all children aged 9 months to 15 years. Following the campaign, TCV will be provided through routine immunization at 9 months. This study aims to estimate the cost of TCV introduction and recurrent delivery as part of the national immunization program. METHODS: This costing analysis is conducted from the government's perspective and focuses on projecting the incremental cost of TCV introduction and delivery for Malawi's existing immunization program before vaccine introduction. The study uses a costing tool developed by Levin & Morgan through a partnership between the International Vaccine Institute and the World Health Organization and leverages primary and secondary data collected through key informant interviews with representatives of the Malawi Expanded Programme on Immunization team at various levels. RESULTS: The total financial and economic costs of TCV introduction over three years in Malawi are projected to be US$8.5 million and US$29.8 million, respectively. More than two-thirds of the total cost is made up of recurrent costs. Major cost drivers include the procurement of vaccines and injection supplies and service delivery costs. Without vaccine cost, we estimate the cost per child immunized to be substantially lower than US$1. DISCUSSION: Findings from this analysis may be used to assess the economic implications of introducing TCV in Malawi. Major cost drivers highlighted by the analysis may also inform decision-makers in the region as they assess the value and feasibility of TCV introduction in their national immunization program.

Characterisation of tuberculosis mortality in informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya: analysis of data between 2002 and 2016.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) remains one of the key public health problems in Africa. Due to multifaceted challenges, its burden is poorly described in informal settlements. We describe tuberculosis mortality in two informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of 2002-2016 verbal autopsy data from informal settlements in the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). A descriptive analysis of deaths assigned as caused by TB was done. Pearson chi-square tests were used to determine differences between socio-demographic factors. Logistic regression was carried out to examine the risk of death from TB within the characteristics. RESULTS: There were 6218 deaths in the NUHDSS within the period of analysis, of which 930 (14.96%) were deaths from TB. The average number of TB deaths per year was 62(SD 23.9). There was a reduction in TB deaths from 21.2% in 2005 to 1.7% in 2016. Males had 1.39 higher odds of dying from TB than females (AOR 1.39; 95% CI 1.18-1.64; p-value < 0.001). Compared to those aged 30-39 years, the ≥50-year-olds had a 42% lower chance of dying from TB (AOR 0.57; 95% CI 0.47-0.73; p-value < 0.001). Those dying at home had 1.39 odds of dying from TB as compared to those who died in a health facility(AOR 1.93; 95% CI 1.17-1.64; p value< 0.001). CONCLUSION: There was a reduction in TB deaths over the study period. Males had the highest risk of death. There is a need to strengthen TB surveillance and access to TB diagnosis and treatment within informal settlements to enhance early diagnosis and treatment.

Extended follow-up of children in a phase2b trial of the GMZ2 malaria vaccine.

BACKGROUND: The GMZ2/alum candidate malaria vaccine had an efficacy of 14% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6%, 23%) against clinical malaria over 6 months of follow-up in a phase2b multicentre trial in children 1-5 years of age. Here we report the extended follow up of safety and efficacy over 2 years. METHODS: A total of 1849 (GMZ2 = 926, rabies = 923) children aged 12-60 months were randomized to receive intramuscularly, either 3 doses of 100 µg GMZ2/alum or 3 doses of rabies vaccine as control 28 days apart. The children were followed-up for 24 months for clinical malaria episodes and adverse events. The primary endpoint was documented fever with parasitaemia of at least 5000/µL. RESULTS: There were 2,062 malaria episodes in the GMZ2/alum group and 2,115 in the rabies vaccine group in the intention-to-treat analysis, vaccine efficacy (VE) of 6.5% (95%: CI -1.6%, 14.0%). In children aged 1-2 years at enrolment, VE was 3.6% (95 %CI: -9.1%, 14.8%) in the first year and -4.1% (95 %CI: -18.7%, 87%) in the second year. In children aged 3-5 years at enrolment VE was 19.9% (95 %CI: 7.7%, 30.4%) in the first year and 6.3% (95 %CI: -10.2%, 20.3%) in the second year (interaction by year, P = 0.025, and by age group, P = 0.085). A total of 187 (GMZ2 = 91, rabies = 96) serious adverse events were recorded in 167 individuals over the entire period of the study. There were no GMZ2 vaccine related serious adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: GMZ2/alum was well tolerated. Follow-up over 2 years confirmed a low level of vaccine efficacy with slightly higher efficacy in older children, which suggests GMZ2 may act in concert with naturally acquired immunity.

Adolescent pregnancy outcomes at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital, Malawi: a cross-sectional study.

Malawi has a growing population with a high Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) of 439 per 100,000 live births to which adolescents contribute 25%. Current data suggests adolescent pregnancies in low resource settings are at an increased risk of both maternal and neonatal morbidity. Objectives: This study assessed the pregnancy outcomes amongst adolescents while using women from the early adulthood (20 - 24-year-old) and advanced maternal age (35 years old and above) groups as reference. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study, carried out at the Chatinkha maternity (labour) and post-natal wards at QECH, and included all adolescents (10 - 19 years old) and women between 20 - 24 years old (early adulthood) and 35 years old or older (advanced maternal age), presenting in labor, at any gestational age ≥ 28 weeks or with a birth weight of 1000 grams or above. Results: The study found the prevalence of adolescent pregnancy to be 20.4% (N=5035) out of all the deliveries during the recruitment period. Sexually transmitted infections were proportionally higher in the adolescent group, with 12% testing HIV seroreactive and 10% syphilis seroreactive. Neonatal outcomes of birth asphyxia (3.5%), low birth weight (5%), prematurity (4.3%) and early neonatal death (4.3%) were not statistically different from the outcomes of the older age groups. The major causes of maternal morbidity were determined to be a high caesarean section rate of 31.9% and intrapartum diagnosis of urinary tract infection (7.4%), malaria (7.4%) and hypertensive disorders (14.5%). Conclusions: Adolescents are a significant proportion of the pregnant population in Malawi. These adolescents are at increased risk of some pregnancy and peripartum complications when compared to women of older age groups. However, our study determined that these outcomes appear to be more likely related to the peripartum care received and not solely specific to maternal age.

Effect of bed net colour and shape preferences on bed net usage: a secondary data analysis of the 2017 Malawi Malaria Indicator Survey.

BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in the paediatric population in Malawi. Insecticide-treated bed nets are a key vector malaria control intervention, however, advancement towards universal access is progressing slowly. Malawi Malaria indicator surveys (MMIS) show diverse user preferences of bed net shape and colour. The objective of this work was to understand if bed net shape and colour preferences affect usage. METHODS: This is a secondary analysis of data from households that participated in the 2016-2017 MMIS. The main outcome variable was net usage defined, at net level, whether someone slept under a particular net on the night before the survey. The main exposure variables were preference attributes, whether a particular net is of a preferred colour or shape as defined by the household respondent. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were done to determine the association between the exposure and outcome variables. RESULTS: A total of 3729 households with 16,755 individuals were included in this analysis. There were a total 7710 bed nets in households that participated in the survey of which 5435 (70.5%) of these nets had someone sleep under them the previous night before the survey. Bed nets that are of a preferred shape have 3.55 times higher odds of being used than those not preferred [AOR 3.55 (95% CI 2.98, 4.23; p value < 0.001)]. Bed nets that are of a preferred colour have 1.61 times higher odds of being used than those that are not of a preferred colour [AOR 1.61 (95% CI 1.41, 1.84; p value < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicate that if a bed net is of a preferred colour or shape, it is more likely to be used. Bed net purchase by malaria stakeholders need to balance more factors on top of preferences such as price and efficacy.

Does recall time matter in verbal autopsies? Evidence from urban informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

Background: To assign a cause of death to non-medically certified deaths, verbal autopsies (VAs) are widely used to determine the cause of death. The time difference between the death and the VA interview, also referred to as recall time, varies depending on social and operational factors surrounding the death. We investigated the effect of recall time on the assignment of causes of death by VA. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of 2002-2015 survey data of the Nairobi Urban Health Demographic Surveillance System (NUHDSS). The independent variable recall time was derived from the date of death and the date when the VA was conducted. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods were used to calculate odds ratios of assigning a cause of death in defined categories of recall time. Results: There were 6218 deaths followed up between 2002 and 2016, out of which 5495 (88.3%) had VAs done. Recall time varied from 1-3001 days (median  92 days, IQR 44-169 days). Majority of the VAs (45.7%) were conducted between 1-3 months after death. The effect of recall time varied for different diseases. Compared to VAs conducted between 1-3 months, there was a 24% higher likelihood of identifying HIV/AIDS as the cause of death for VAs conducted 4-6 months after death (AOR 1.24; 95% CI 1.01-1.54; p-value = 0.043) and a 40% increased chance of identifying other infectious diseases as the cause of death for VAs conducted <1 month after death (AOR 1.4; 95% CI 1.02-1.92, p-value = 0.024). Conclusions: Recall time affected the assignment of VA cause of death for HIV/AIDS, other infectious diseases,maternal/neonatal and indeterminate causes. Our analysis indicates that in the urban informal setting, VAs should be conducted from one month up to 6 months after the death to improve the probability of accurately assigning the cause of death.

Cost-effectiveness and public health impact of RTS,S/AS01 E malaria vaccine in Malawi, using a Markov static model.

Background: The RTS,S/AS01 E malaria vaccine is being assessed in Malawi, Ghana and Kenya as part of a large-scale pilot implementation programme. Even if impactful, its incorporation into immunisation programmes will depend on demonstrating cost-effectiveness. We analysed the cost-effectiveness and public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 E malaria vaccine use in Malawi. Methods: We calculated the Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted by vaccination and compared it to Malawi's mean per capita Gross Domestic Product. We used a previously validated Markov model, which simulated malaria progression in a 2017 Malawian birth cohort for 15 years. We used a 46% vaccine efficacy, 75% vaccine coverage, USD5 estimated cost per vaccine dose, published local treatment costs for clinical malaria and Malawi specific malaria indicators for interventions such as bed net and antimalarial use. We took a healthcare provider, household and societal perspective. Costs were discounted at 3% per year, no discounting was applied to DALYs. For public health impact, we calculated the DALYs, and malaria events averted. Results: The ICER/DALY averted was USD115 and USD109 for the health system perspective and societal perspective respectively, lower than GDP per capita of USD398.6 for Malawi. Sensitivity analyses exploring the impact of variation in vaccine costs, vaccine coverage rate and coverage of four doses showed vaccine implementation would be cost-effective across a wide range of different outcomes. RTS,S/AS01 was predicted to avert a median of 93,940 (range 20,490-126,540) clinical cases and 394 (127-708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116,480 (31,450-160,410) clinical cases and 484 (189-859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100 000 fully vaccinated children. Conclusions: We predict the introduction of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in the Malawian expanded programme of immunisation (EPI) likely to be highly cost effective.

High-Risk Adult Wilms' Tumour in Pregnancy: A Case Report.

Wilms' tumour is the most common renal neoplasm in children with an incidence of 10 cases per 1 million children and a median age at diagnosis of 3.5 years. In Western countries its occurrence in adults is 0.2 cases per million people in western countries and carries a poorer prognosis. The co-existence of Adult Wilms' tumour and pregnancy is extremely rare with less than 20 cases published in the English literature. We present a case of a Malawian woman who had progressive high-risk metastatic Adult Wilms' tumour in pregnancy after nephrectomy, radiotherapy and two lines of chemotherapy.

Geostatistical analysis of Malawi's changing malaria transmission from 2010 to 2017.

Background: The prevalence of malaria infection in time and space provides important information on the likely sub-national epidemiology of malaria burdens and how this has changed following intervention. Model-based geostatitics (MBG) allow national malaria control programmes to leverage multiple data sources to provide predictions of malaria prevalance by district over time. These methods are used to explore the possible changes in malaria prevalance in Malawi from 2010 to 2017.  Methods: Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence ( PfPR) surveys undertaken in Malawi between 2000 and 2017 were assembled. A spatio-temporal geostatistical model was fitted to predict annual malaria risk for children aged 2-10 years ( PfPR 2-10) at 1×1 km spatial resolutions. Parameter estimation was carried out using the Monte Carlo maximum likelihood methods. Population-adjusted prevalence and populations at risk by district were calculated for 2010 and 2017 to inform malaria control program priority setting. Results: 2,237 surveys at 1,834 communities undertaken between 2000 and 2017 were identified, geo-coded and used within the MBG framework to predict district malaria prevalence properties for 2010 and 2017. Nationally, there was a 47.2% reduction in the mean modelled PfPR 2-10 from 29.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 26.6 to 32.3%) in 2010 to 15.2% (95% CI 13.3 to 18.0%) in 2017. Declining prevalence was not equal across the country, 25 of 27 districts showed a significant decline ranging from a 3.3% reduction to 79% reduction. By 2017, 16% of Malawi's population still lived in areas that support PfPR 2-10 ≥ 25%. Conclusions: Malawi has made substantial progress in reducing the prevalence of malaria over the last seven years. However, Malawi remains in meso-endemic malaria transmission risk. To sustain the gains made and continue reducing the transmission further, universal control interventions need to be maintained at a national level.