Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050.

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Forest characteristics, population structure and growth trends of threatened relict Pseudotsuga forrestii in China.

Pseudotsuga forrestii is a relict evergreen coniferous tree species in Pinaceae endemic to China. P. forrestii tree numbers have greatly decreased due to deforestation, over-utilization and habitat degradation. Here we clarify P. forrestii community types, structure, species diversity, seedling recruitments and growth trends. We identified four P. forrestii community types: (1) Pseudotsuga forrestii - Quercus guyavifolia - Acer davidii evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest; (2) Pseudotsuga forrestii - Pinus yunnanensis - Quercus guyavifolia evergreen coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest; (3) Pseudotsuga forrestii evergreen coniferous forest; (4) Pseudotsuga forrestii - Abies georgei var. smithii evergreen coniferous forest. P. forrestii forests are characterized by both warm temperate and temperate affinities. Simpson diversity, Pielou evenness, Shannon-Wiener diversity indices ranged from 0.75 to 0.76, 0.74-0.81, and 1.62-1.93, respectively, with no significant differences among the four forest types. The forest stratification was multilayered. The canopy layer was generally 10-25 m tall, with the emergent layer reached 25-42 m. DBH and age structures of P. forrestii showed multimodal distributions. Its maximum age P. forrestii was 570 years with a DBH of 143 cm. The growth of annual ring width of P. forrestii was slow, and generally decreased with age, whereas the basal area at the breast height increased with age. Established seedlings/saplings were mainly found in unstable micro-habitats. Regeneration of P. forrestii depends on moderate natural disturbances. Finally, we provide recommendations for P. forrestii conservation.

Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation.

Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture-conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.

Moe-Phobia: Effect of Users' Gender on Perceived Sexuality and Likability Toward Manga-Like Virtual Agents.

In Japan, many incidents regarding manga-like virtual agents have happened recently, in which critics have indicated that virtual agents used in public spaces are too sexual. Prior study defined this perception as "moe-phobia." In many cases, critics have pointed to agents' clothes. However, after verifying actual moe-phobia incidents, I hypothesize that these incidents are associated with not only the agents' clothes but also the situations in which they are used. I conducted an experiment with three factors and two levels to verify this hypothesis. The independent values were the agents' clothes, usage scenario, and the gender of the participants. The dependent values were the agents' trustworthiness, familiarity, likability, sexuality, and suitability as perceived by humans. I conducted the experiment with female and male groups and conducted a three-way ANOVA for each dependent value for each group. As a result, I observed a different tendency regarding the impression of the agents between female and male groups; however, both groups had the same tendency regarding the perceived suitability. The female and male participants judged the agents' suitability from not only their clothes but also the scenario.

Quantifying the impacts of 166 years of land cover change on lowland bird communities.

Land cover change for agriculture is thought to be a major threat to global biodiversity. However, its ecological impact has rarely been quantified in the Northern Hemisphere, as broad-scale conversion to farmland mainly occurred until the 1400s-1700s in the region, limiting the availability of sufficient data. The Ishikari Lowland in Hokkaido, Japan, offers an excellent opportunity to address this issue, as hunter-gatherer lifestyles dominated this region until the mid-nineteenth century and land cover maps are available for the period of land cover changes (i.e. 1850-2016). Using these maps and a hierarchical community model of relationships between breeding bird abundance and land cover types, we estimated that broad-scale land cover change over a 166-year period was associated with more than 70% decline in both potential species richness and abundance of avian communities. We estimated that the abundance of wetland and forest species declined by greater than 88%, whereas that of bare-ground/farmland species increased by more than 50%. Our results suggest that broad-scale land cover change for agriculture has led to drastic reductions in wetland and forest species and promoted changes in community composition in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere. This study provides potential baseline information that could inform future conservation policies.

Climate Stability Index maps, a global high resolution cartography of climate stability from Pliocene to 2100.

Climate changes are top biodiversity shapers, both during the past and future. Mapping the most climatic stable and unstable zones on Earth could improve our understanding of biodiversity distribution and evolution. Here, we present a set of maps based on a global scale, high resolution (ca. 5 km) new Climate Stability Index (CSI). The CSI considers bioclimatic variables for two different time ranges: (1) from Pliocene (3.3 Ma) to the present (CSI-past map set), using 12 time periods of PaleoClim representing warm and cold cycles; and (2) from present to the year 2100 (CSI-future), using nine general circulation models of climate change of four periods available from WorldClim. We calculated standard deviation of the variables and selected an uncorrelated set for summing, normalizing and obtaining the CSI maps. Our approach is useful for fields such as biogeography, earth sciences, agriculture, or sociology. However, CSI is an index that can be re-calculated according to particular criteria and objectives (e.g. temperature variables); maps are, therefore, customizable to every user.

Global estimates of stress-reflecting indices reveal key climatic drivers of climate-induced forest range shifts.

Climate change has the potential to cause forest range shifts at a broad scale and consequently can alter crucial forest functions, including carbon sequestration. However, global-scale projections of future forest range shifts remain challenging because our knowledge of the physiological responses of plants to climatic stress is limited to particular species and is insufficient for wide-range projections, in addition to the uncertainties in the impacts of non-climatic factors, such as wildfire, wind, and insect outbreaks. To evaluate the vulnerability and resilience of forests to climate change, we developed a new empirical approach using climatic indices reflecting physiological stressors on plants. We calculated the global distributions of seven indices based on primary climatic stressors (drought, solar radiation, and temperature) at high resolution. We then modeled the relationship between the seven indices and global forest extent. We found two key stressors driving climate-induced forest range shifts on a global scale: low temperature under high radiation and drought. At high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, forest establishment became difficult when the mean temperature was less than approximately 7.2 °C in the highest radiation quarter. Forest sensitivity to drought was more pronounced at mid-latitudes. In areas where the humidity index (ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration) was below 0.45, shrubland and grassland became more dominant than forests. Our results also suggested that the impacts of climate change on global forest range shifts will be geographically biased depending on the areas affected by the key climatic stressors. Potential forest gain was remarkable in boreal regions due to increasing temperature. Potential forest loss was remarkable in current tropical grassland and temperate forest/grassland ecoregions due to increasing drought. Our approach using stress-reflecting indices could improve our ability to detect the roles of climatic stressors on climate-induced forest range shifts.

Possible northern persistence of Siebold's beech, Fagus crenata, at its northernmost distribution limit on an island in Japan Sea: Okushiri Island, Hokkaido.

Siebold's beech, Fagus crenata, is widely distributed across the Japanese Archipelago and islands in Japan Sea. Similar to the northern limit of the geographical distribution of F. crenata on the mainland of Hokkaido, the northern limit of the distribution of F. crenata on islands in the Japan Sea is observed on Okushiri Island (ca 42°N). To understand the genetic relationships of F. crenata on Okushiri Island, we examined chloroplast (cp) DNA haplotypes and 11 nuclear microsatellite (SSR) loci among 1,838 individuals from 44 populations from Okushiri Island, mainland Hokkaido, and the northern part of the Tohoku region on Honshu Island. We identified 2 cpDNA haplotypes, which represent not only populations on the Japan Sea coast but also those on the Pacific coast and this suggested the Okushiri Island populations might not be formed by single colonization. Genetic diversity of the Okushiri Island populations of nuclear SSR was not lower than the mainland and the STRUCTURE analysis revealed the Okushiri Island individuals were admixed between Hokkaido and Tohoku clusters. Approximate Bayesian computation inferred that divergence between Tohoku and Hokkaido, and admixture between two populations which generated Okushiri populations occurred before the last glacial maximum (LGM), that is, 7,890 (95% hyper probability density (HPD): 3,420 - 9,910) and 3,870 (95% HPD: 431- 8,540) generations ago, respectively. These inferences were well supported by a geological history which suggested an isolation of Okushiri Island from Hokkaido started prior to the Middle Pleistocene. We discuss the possible persistence of F. crenata during the last glacial maximum on northern islands in the Japan Sea such as Okushiri Island.

Effect of Hidden Vector on the Speech of PRVA.

This study aimed to propose a novel method for designing a product recommendation virtual agent (PRVA) that can keep users motivated to interact with the agent. In prior papers, many methods of keeping users motivated postulated real-time and multi-modal interactions. The proposed novel method can be used in one-direction interaction. We defined the notion of the "hidden vector," that is, information that is not mentioned by a PRVA and that the user can suppose spontaneously. We conducted an experiment to verify the hypothesis that PRVAs having a hidden vector are more effective than other PRVAs. As a result, it was shown that PRVAs having a hidden vector were perceived as being more persuasive than other PRVAs and strongly motivated the users to use the PRVAs. From these results, the proposed method was shown to be effective.

Who Is to Blame? The Appearance of Virtual Agents and the Attribution of Perceived Responsibility.

Virtual agents have been widely used in human-agent collaboration work. One important problem with human-agent collaboration is the attribution of responsibility as perceived by users. We focused on the relationship between the appearance of a virtual agent and the attribution of perceived responsibility. We conducted an experiment with five agents: an agent without an appearance, a human-like agent, a robot-like agent, a dog-like agent, and an angel-like agent. We measured the perceived agency and experience for each agent, and we conducted an experiment involving a sound-guessing game. In the game, participants listened to a sound and guessed what the sound was with an agent. At the end of the game, the game finished with failure, and the participants did not know who made the mistake, the participant or the agent. After the game, we asked the participants how they perceived the agents' trustworthiness and to whom they attributed responsibility. As a result, participants attributed less responsibility to themselves when interacting with a robot-like agent than interacting with an angel-like robot. Furthermore, participants perceived the least trustworthiness toward the robot-like agent among all conditions. In addition, the agents' perceived experience had a correlation with the attribution of perceived responsibility. Furthermore, the agents that made the participants feel their attribution of responsibility to be less were not trusted. These results suggest the relationship between agents' appearance and perceived attribution of responsibility and new methods for designs in the creation of virtual agents for collaboration work.

Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy.

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it  provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether-and how-humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042-2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34-50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats-such as climate change-must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy.

Biodiversity can benefit from climate stabilization despite adverse side effects of land-based mitigation.

Limiting the magnitude of climate change via stringent greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is necessary to prevent further biodiversity loss. However, some strategies to mitigate GHG emission involve greater land-based mitigation efforts, which may cause biodiversity loss from land-use changes. Here we estimate how climate and land-based mitigation efforts interact with global biodiversity by using an integrated assessment model framework to project potential habitat for five major taxonomic groups. We find that stringent GHG mitigation can generally bring a net benefit to global biodiversity even if land-based mitigation is adopted. This trend is strengthened in the latter half of this century. In contrast, some regions projected to experience much growth in land-based mitigation efforts (i.e., Europe and Oceania) are expected to suffer biodiversity loss. Our results support the enactment of stringent GHG mitigation policies in terms of biodiversity. To conserve local biodiversity, however, these policies must be carefully designed in conjunction with land-use regulations and societal transformation in order to minimize the conversion of natural habitats.

Modeling future wildlife habitat suitability: serious climate change impacts on the potential distribution of the Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps.

BACKGROUND: The Rock Ptarmigan Lagopus muta japonica lives in the alpine zones of central Japan, which is the southern limit of the global distribution for this species. This species is highly dependent on alpine habitats, which are considered vulnerable to rapid climate change. This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on potential L. muta japonica habitat based on predicted changes to alpine vegetation, to identify population vulnerability under future climatic conditions for conservation planning. We developed species distribution models, which considered the structure of the alpine ecosystem by incorporating spatial hierarchy on specific environmental factors to assess the potential habitats for L. muta japonica under current and future climates. We used 24 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2081-2100 as future climate conditions. RESULTS: The predicted potential habitat for L. muta japonica was similar to the actual distribution of the territories in the study area of Japan's northern Alps (36.25-36.5°N, 137.5-137.7°E). Future potential habitat for L. muta japonica was projected to decrease to 0.4% of the current potential habitat in the median of occurrence probabilities under 24 GCMs, due to a decrease in alpine vegetation communities. Some potential habitats in the central and northwestern part of the study area were predicted to be sustained in the future, depending on the GCMs. CONCLUSIONS: Our model results predicted that the potential habitats for L. muta japonica in Japan's northern Alps, which provides core habitat for this subspecies, would be vulnerable by 2081-2100. Small sustainable habitats may serve as refugia, facilitating the survival of L. muta japonica populations under future climatic conditions. Impact assessment studies of the effect of climate change on L. muta japonica habitats at a nationwide scale are urgently required to establish effective conservation planning for this species, which includes identifying candidate areas for assisted migration as an adaptive strategy.

Designing Trustworthy Product Recommendation Virtual Agents Operating Positive Emotion and Having Copious Amount of Knowledge.

Anthropomorphic agents used in online-shopping need to be trusted by users so that users feel comfortable buying products. In this paper, we propose a model for designing trustworthy agents by assuming two factors of trust, that is, emotion and knowledgeableness perceived. Our hypothesis is that when a user feels happy and perceives an agent as being highly knowledgeable, a high level of trust results between the user and agent. We conducted four experiments with participants to verify this hypothesis by preparing transition operators utilizing emotional contagion and knowledgeable utterances. As a result, we verified that users' internal states transitioned as expected and that the two factors significantly influenced their trust states.

Author Correction: Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia.

In the original version of this Article, an incorrect sample size was provided for the number of relict species (443 instead of 442) and the number of relict forests (423 instead of 422). These errors have been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia.

Today East Asia harbors many "relict" plant species whose ranges were much larger during the Paleogene-Neogene and earlier. The ecological and climatic conditions suitable for these relict species have not been identified. Here, we map the abundance and distribution patterns of relict species, showing high abundance in the humid subtropical/warm-temperate forest regions. We further use Ecological Niche Modeling to show that these patterns align with maps of climate refugia, and we predict species' chances of persistence given the future climatic changes expected for East Asia. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of relict species will decrease, although the areas as a whole will probably expand. We identify areas in southwestern China and northern Vietnam as long-term climatically stable refugia likely to preserve ancient lineages, highlighting areas that could be prioritized for conservation of such species.

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China.

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata.

Land abandonment and changes in snow cover period accelerate range expansions of sika deer.

Ongoing climate change and land-use change have the potential to substantially alter the distribution of large herbivores. This may result in drastic changes in ecosystems by changing plant-herbivore interactions. Here, we developed a model explaining sika deer persistence and colonization between 25 years in terms of neighborhood occupancy and habitat suitability. We used climatic, land-use, and topographic variables to calculate the habitat suitability and evaluated the contributions of the variables to past range changes of sika deer. We used this model to predict the changes in the range of sika deer over the next 100 years under four scenario groups with the combination of land-use change and climate change. Our results showed that both climate change and land-use change had affected the range of sika deer in the past 25 years. Habitat suitability increased in northern or mountainous regions, which account for 71.6% of Japan, in line with a decrease in the snow cover period. Habitat suitability decreased in suburban areas, which account for 28.4% of Japan, corresponding to land-use changes related to urbanization. In the next 100 years, the decrease in snow cover period and the increase in land abandonment were predicted to accelerate the range expansion of sika deer. Comparison of these two driving factors revealed that climate change will contribute more to range expansion, particularly from the 2070s onward. In scenarios that assumed the influence of both climate change and land-use change, the total sika deer range increased by between +4.6% and +11.9% from the baseline scenario. Climate change and land-use change will require additional efforts for future management of sika deer, particularly in the long term.