mRNA-Based Vaccines Are Highly Immunogenic and Confer Protection in the Gnotobiotic Pig Model of Human Rotavirus Diarrhea.

Human rotavirus (HRV) is still a leading cause of severe dehydrating gastroenteritis globally, particularly in infants and children. Previously, we demonstrated the immunogenicity of mRNA-based HRV vaccine candidates expressing the viral spike protein VP8* in rodent models. In the present study, we assessed the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of two mRNA-based HRV trivalent vaccine candidates, encoding VP8* of the genotypes P[8], P[6], or P[4], in the gnotobiotic (Gn) pig model of Wa (G1P[8]) HRV infection and diarrhea. Vaccines either encoded VP8* alone fused to the universal T-cell epitope P2 (P2-VP8*) or expressed P2-VP8* as a fusion protein with lumazine synthase (LS-P2-VP8*) to allow the formation and secretion of protein particles that present VP8* on their surface. Gn pigs were randomly assigned into groups and immunized three times with either P2-VP8* (30 µg) or LS-P2-VP8* (30 µg or 12 µg). A trivalent alum-adjuvanted P2-VP8* protein vaccine or an LNP-formulated irrelevant mRNA vaccine served as the positive and negative control, respectively. Upon challenge with virulent Wa HRV, a significantly shortened duration and decreased severity of diarrhea and significant protection from virus shedding was induced by both mRNA vaccine candidates compared to the negative control. Both LS-P2-VP8* doses induced significantly higher VP8*-specific IgG antibody titers in the serum after immunizations than the negative as well as the protein control. The P[8] VP8*-specific IgG antibody-secreting cells in the ileum, spleen, and blood seven days post-challenge, as well as VP8*-specific IFN-γ-producing T-cell numbers increased in all three mRNA-vaccinated pig groups compared to the negative control. Overall, there was a clear tendency towards improved responses in LS-P2-VP8* compared to the P2-VP8*mRNA vaccine. The demonstrated strong humoral immune responses, priming for effector T cells, and the significant reduction of viral shedding and duration of diarrhea in Gn pigs provide a promising proof of concept and may provide guidance for the further development of mRNA-based rotavirus vaccines.

Establishing RTS,S/AS01 as a benchmark for comparison to next-generation malaria vaccines in a mouse model.

New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include vaccines targeting the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To improve upon the malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of next-generation vaccines against this benchmark. We focus on RTS,S/AS01-induced antibody responses and functional activity in conjunction with robust statistical analyses. Transgenic Plasmodium berghei sporozoites containing full-length P. falciparum CSP (tgPb-PfCSP) allow two assessments of efficacy: quantitative reduction in liver infection following intravenous challenge, and sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Two or three doses of RTS,S/AS01 were given intramuscularly at 3-week intervals, with challenge 2-weeks after the last vaccination. Minimal inter- and intra-assay variability indicates the reproducibility of the methods. Importantly, the range of this model is suitable for screening more potent vaccines. Levels of induced anti-CSP antibody 2A10 equivalency were also associated with activity: 105 µg/mL (95% CI: 68.8, 141) reduced liver infection by 50%, whereas 285 µg/mL (95% CI: 166, 404) is required for 50% sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Additionally, the liver burden model was able to differentiate between protected and non-protected human plasma samples from a controlled human malaria infection study, supporting these models' relevance and predictive capability. Comparison in animal models of CSP-based vaccine candidates to RTS,S/AS01 is now possible under well controlled conditions. Assessment of the quality of induced antibodies, likely a determinant of durability of protection in humans, should be possible using these methods.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition.

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

Safety and antiviral activity of triple combination broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody therapy against HIV-1: a phase 1 clinical trial.

HIV-1 therapy with single or dual broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has shown viral escape, indicating that at least a triple bNAb therapy may be needed for robust suppression of viremia. We performed a two-part study consisting of a single-center, randomized, double-blind, dose-escalation, placebo-controlled first-in-human trial of the HIV-1 V2-glycan-specific antibody PGDM1400 alone or in combination with the V3-glycan-specific antibody PGT121 in 24 adults without HIV in part 1, as well as a multi-center, open-label trial of the combination of PGDM1400, PGT121 and the CD4-binding-site antibody VRC07-523LS in five viremic adults living with HIV not on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in part 2 ( NCT03205917 ). The primary endpoints were safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics for both parts and antiviral activity among viremic adults living with HIV and not on ART for part 2 of the study. The secondary endpoints were changes in CD4+ T cell counts and development of HIV-1 sequence variations associated with PGDM1400, PGT121 and VRC07-523LS resistance in part 2. Intravenously administered PGDM1400 was safe and well-tolerated at doses up to 30 mg kg-1 and when given in combination with PGT121 and VRC07-523LS. A single intravenous infusion of 20 mg kg-1 of each of the three antibodies reduced plasma HIV RNA levels in viremic individuals by a maximum mean of 2.04 log10 copies per ml; however, viral rebound occurred in all participants within a median of 20 days after nadir. Rebound viruses demonstrated partial to complete resistance to PGDM1400 and PGT121 in vitro, whereas susceptibility to VRC07-523LS was preserved. Viral rebound occurred despite mean VRC07-523LS serum concentrations of 93 µg ml-1. The trial met the pre-specified endpoints. Our data suggest that future bNAb combinations likely need to achieve broad antiviral activity, while also maintaining high serum concentrations, to mediate viral control.

Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

Estimation of the in vivo neutralization potency of eCD4Ig and conditions for AAV-mediated production for SHIV long-term remission.

The engineered protein eCD4Ig has emerged as a promising approach to achieve HIV remission in the absence of antiviral therapy. eCD4Ig neutralizes nearly all HIV-1 isolates and induces antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) in vitro. To characterize the in vivo antiviral neutralization and possible ADCC effects of eCD4Ig, we fit mathematical models to eCD4Ig, anti­eCD4Ig-drug antibody (ADA), and viral load kinetics from healthy and simian-human immunodeficiency virus AD8 (SHIV-AD8) infected nonhuman primates that were treated with single or sequentially dosed eCD4Ig passive administrations. Our model predicts that eCD4Ig transiently decreases SHIV viral loads due to neutralization only with an in vivo IC50 of ~25 µg/ml but with limited effect due to ADA. Simulations suggest that endogenous, continuous expression of eCD4Ig at levels greater than 105 µg/day, as is possible with Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector-based production, could overcome the diminishing effects of ADA and allow for long-term remission of SHIV viremia in nonhuman primates.

Safety, pharmacokinetics and antiviral activity of PGT121, a broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody against HIV-1: a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 1 clinical trial.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-1-specific broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibodies are currently under development to treat and prevent HIV-1 infection. We performed a single-center, randomized, double-blind, dose-escalation, placebo-controlled trial of a single administration of the HIV-1 V3-glycan-specific antibody PGT121 at 3, 10 and 30 mg kg-1 in HIV-uninfected adults and HIV-infected adults on antiretroviral therapy (ART), as well as a multicenter, open-label trial of one infusion of PGT121 at 30 mg kg-1 in viremic HIV-infected adults not on ART (no. NCT02960581). The primary endpoints were safety and tolerability, pharmacokinetics (PK) and antiviral activity in viremic HIV-infected adults not on ART. The secondary endpoints were changes in anti-PGT121 antibody titers and CD4+ T-cell count, and development of HIV-1 sequence variations associated with PGT121 resistance. Among 48 participants enrolled, no treatment-related serious adverse events, potential immune-mediated diseases or Grade 3 or higher adverse events were reported. The most common reactions among PGT121 recipients were intravenous/injection site tenderness, pain and headache. Absolute and relative CD4+ T-cell counts did not change following PGT121 infusion in HIV-infected participants. Neutralizing anti-drug antibodies were not elicited. PGT121 reduced plasma HIV RNA levels by a median of 1.77 log in viremic participants, with a viral load nadir at a median of 8.5 days. Two individuals with low baseline viral loads experienced ART-free viral suppression for ≥168 days following antibody infusion, and rebound viruses in these individuals demonstrated full or partial PGT121 sensitivity. The trial met the prespecified endpoints. These data suggest that further investigation of the potential of antibody-based therapeutic strategies for long-term suppression of HIV is warranted, including in individuals off ART and with low viral load.

Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model.

Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.

Safety and immunogenicity of an HIV-1 gp120-CD4 chimeric subunit vaccine in a phase 1a randomized controlled trial.

A major challenge for HIV vaccine development is to raise anti-envelope antibodies capable of recognizing and neutralizing diverse strains of HIV-1. Accordingly, a full length single chain (FLSC) of gp120-CD4 chimeric vaccine construct was designed to present a highly conserved CD4-induced (CD4i) HIV-1 envelope structure that elicits cross-reactive anti-envelope humoral responses and protective immunity in animal models of HIV infection. IHV01 is the FLSC formulated in aluminum phosphate adjuvant. We enrolled 65 healthy adult volunteers in this first-in-human phase 1a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study with three dose-escalating cohorts (75 µg, 150 µg, and 300 µg doses). Intramuscular injections were given on weeks 0, 4, 8, and 24. Participants were followed for an additional 24 weeks after the last immunization. The overall incidence of adverse events (AEs) was not significantly different between vaccinees and controls. The majority (89%) of vaccine-related AE were mild. The most common vaccine-related adverse event was injection site pain. There were no vaccine-related serious AE, discontinuation due to AE, intercurrent HIV infection, or significant decreases in CD4 count. By the final vaccination, all vaccine recipients developed antibodies against IHV01 and demonstrated anti-CD4i epitope antibodies. The elicited antibodies reacted with CD4 non-liganded Env antigens from diverse HIV-1 strains. Antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity against heterologous infected cells or gp120 bound to CD4+ cells was evident in all cohorts as were anti-gp120 T-cell responses. IHV01 vaccine was safe, well tolerated, and immunogenic at all doses tested. The vaccine raised broadly reactive humoral responses against conserved CD4i epitopes on gp120 that mediates antiviral functions.

Slight reduction in SARS-CoV-2 exposure viral load due to masking results in a significant reduction in transmission with widespread implementation.

Masks are a vital tool for limiting SARS-CoV-2 spread in the population. Here we utilize a mathematical model to assess the impact of masking on transmission within individual transmission pairs and at the population level. Our model quantitatively links mask efficacy to reductions in viral load and subsequent transmission risk. Our results reinforce that the use of masks by both a potential transmitter and exposed person substantially reduces the probability of successful transmission, even if masks only lower exposure viral load by ~ 50%. Slight increases in mask adherence and/or efficacy above current levels would reduce the effective reproductive number (Re) substantially below 1, particularly if implemented comprehensively in potential super-spreader environments. Our model predicts that moderately efficacious masks will also lower exposure viral load tenfold among people who get infected despite masking, potentially limiting infection severity. Because peak viral load tends to occur pre-symptomatically, we also identify that antiviral therapy targeting symptomatic individuals is unlikely to impact transmission risk. Instead, antiviral therapy would only lower Re if dosed as post-exposure prophylaxis and if given to ~ 50% of newly infected people within 3 days of an exposure. These results highlight the primacy of masking relative to other biomedical interventions under consideration for limiting the extent of the COVID-19 pandemic prior to widespread implementation of a vaccine. To confirm this prediction, we used a regression model of King County, Washington data and simulated the counterfactual scenario without mask wearing to estimate that in the absence of additional interventions, mask wearing decreased Re from 1.3-1.5 to ~ 1.0 between June and September 2020.

Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person. We identify that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza can be highly contagious for less than 1 day, congruent with peak viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events occur when an infected person is shedding at a very high viral load and has a high number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 toward super-spreading events cannot be attributed to additional weeks of shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks, likely due to aerosolization.

Thresholds for post-rebound SHIV control after CCR5 gene-edited autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation.

Autologous, CCR5 gene-edited hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) transplantation is a promising strategy for achieving HIV remission. However, only a fraction of HSPCs can be edited ex vivo to provide protection against infection. To project the thresholds of CCR5-edition necessary for HIV remission, we developed a mathematical model that recapitulates blood T cell reconstitution and plasma simian-HIV (SHIV) dynamics from SHIV-1157ipd3N4-infected pig-tailed macaques that underwent autologous transplantation with CCR5 gene editing. The model predicts that viral control can be obtained following analytical treatment interruption (ATI) when: (1) transplanted HSPCs are at least fivefold higher than residual endogenous HSPCs after total body irradiation and (2) the fraction of protected HSPCs in the transplant achieves a threshold (76-94%) sufficient to overcome transplantation-dependent loss of SHIV immunity. Under these conditions, if ATI is withheld until transplanted gene-modified cells engraft and reconstitute to a steady state, spontaneous viral control is projected to occur.

Wrong person, place and time: viral load and contact network structure predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events.

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during the pre-symptomatic phase of infection. Moreover, in contrast to influenza, while most SARS-CoV-2 infected people do not transmit the virus to anybody, a small percentage secondarily infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza which link observed viral shedding patterns with key epidemiologic features of each virus, including distributions of the number of secondary cases attributed to each infected person (individual R0) and the duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person (serial interval). We identify that people with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections are usually contagious for fewer than one day congruent with peak viral load several days after infection, and that transmission is unlikely below a certain viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events with over 10 secondary infections occur when an infected person is briefly shedding at a very high viral load and has a high concurrent number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 towards super-spreading events is not due to its 1-2 additional weeks of viral shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks than a person infected with influenza, likely due to aerosolization of virus. Our results support policies that limit crowd size in indoor spaces and provide viral load benchmarks for infection control and therapeutic interventions intended to prevent secondary transmission.

A Potent Anti-Malarial Human Monoclonal Antibody Targets Circumsporozoite Protein Minor Repeats and Neutralizes Sporozoites in the Liver.

Discovering potent human monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting the Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (PfCSP) on sporozoites (SPZ) and elucidating their mechanisms of neutralization will facilitate translation for passive prophylaxis and aid next-generation vaccine development. Here, we isolated a neutralizing human mAb, L9 that preferentially bound NVDP minor repeats of PfCSP with high affinity while cross-reacting with NANP major repeats. L9 was more potent than six published neutralizing human PfCSP mAbs at mediating protection against mosquito bite challenge in mice. Isothermal titration calorimetry and multiphoton microscopy showed that L9 and the other most protective mAbs bound PfCSP with two binding events and mediated protection by killing SPZ in the liver and by preventing their egress from sinusoids and traversal of hepatocytes. This study defines the subdominant PfCSP minor repeats as neutralizing epitopes, identifies an in vitro biophysical correlate of SPZ neutralization, and demonstrates that the liver is an important site for antibodies to prevent malaria.

Optimal priming of poxvirus vector (NYVAC)-based HIV vaccine regimens for T cell responses requires three DNA injections. Results of the randomized multicentre EV03/ANRS VAC20 Phase I/II Trial.

DNA vectors have been widely used as a priming of poxvirus vaccine in prime/boost regimens. Whether the number of DNA impacts qualitatively or quantitatively the immune response is not fully explored. With the aim to reinforce T-cell responses by optimizing the prime-boost regimen, the multicentric EV03/ANRS VAC20 phase I/II trial, randomized 147 HIV-negative volunteers to either 3xDNA plus 1xNYVAC (weeks 0, 4, 8 plus 24; n = 74) or to 2xDNA plus 2xNYVAC (weeks 0, 4 plus 20, 24; n = 73) groups. T-cell responses (IFN-γ ELISPOT) to at least one peptide pool were higher in the 3xDNA than the 2xDNA groups (91% and 80% of vaccinees) (P = 0.049). In the 3xDNA arm, 26 (37%) recipients developed a broader T-cell response (Env plus at least to one of the Gag, Pol, Nef pools) than in the 2xDNA (15; 22%) arms (primary endpoint; P = 0.047) with a higher magnitude against Env (at week 26) (P<0.001). In both groups, vaccine regimens induced HIV-specific polyfunctional CD4 and CD8 T cells and the production of Th1, Th2 and Th17/IL-21 cytokines. Antibody responses were also elicited in up to 81% of vaccines. A higher percentage of IgG responders was noted in the 2xDNA arm compared to the 3xDNA arm, while the 3xDNA group tended to elicit a higher magnitude of IgG3 response against specific Env antigens. We show here that the modulation of the prime strategy, without modifying the route or the dose of administration, or the combination of vectors, may influence the quality of the responses.

Characterization of two in vivo challenge models to measure functional activity of monoclonal antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein.

BACKGROUND: New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include the development of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that target the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To select the best candidates and speed development, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of such interventions in animal models. METHODS: Two assay configurations were studied using transgenic Plasmodium berghei expressing Plasmodium falciparum full-length circumsporozoite protein. The assays measured (1) reduction in parasite infection of the liver (liver burden) following an intravenous (i.v) administration of sporozoites and (2) protection from parasitaemia following mosquito bite challenge. Two human CSP mAbs, AB311 and AB317, were compared for their ability to inhibit infection. Multiple independent experiments were conducted to define assay variability and resultant impact on the ability to discriminate differences in mAb functional activity. RESULTS: Overall, the assays produced highly consistent results in that all individual experiments showed greater functional activity for AB317 compared to AB311 as calculated by the dose required for 50% inhibition (ID50) as well as the serum concentration required for 50% inhibition (IC50). The data were then used to model experimental designs with adequate statistical power to rigorously screen, compare, and rank order novel anti-CSP mAbs. CONCLUSION: The results indicate that in vivo assays described here can provide reliable information for comparing the functional activity of mAbs. The results also provide guidance regarding selection of the appropriate experimental design, dose selection, and group sizes.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials.

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 µg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Estimating the Risk of Human Herpesvirus 6 and Cytomegalovirus Transmission to Ugandan Infants from Viral Shedding in Saliva by Household Contacts.

Human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6) and cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections are common in early childhood. In a prospective Ugandan birth cohort study, most infants acquired HHV-6 (24/31; 77%) and CMV (20/30; 67%) during follow-up. To assess the transmission risk, we modeled a dose-response relationship between infant HHV-6 and CMV infections and weekly oral viral shedding by mothers and all other ("secondary") children in the home. Oral viral loads that were shed by mothers and secondary children were significantly associated with HHV-6 but not CMV transmission. While secondary children had higher and more frequent HHV-6 shedding than their mothers, they had a lower per-exposure transmission risk, suggesting that transmission to maternal contacts may be more efficient. HHV-6 transmission was relatively inefficient, occurring after <25% of all weekly exposures. Although HHV-6 transmission often occurs following repeated, low dose exposures, we found a non-linear dose-response relationship in which infection risk markedly increases when exposures reached a threshold of > 5 log10 DNA copies/mL. The lack of association between oral CMV shedding and transmission is consistent with breastfeeding being the dominant route of infant infection for that virus. These affirm saliva as the route of HHV-6 transmission and provide benchmarks for developing strategies to reduce the risk of infection and its related morbidity.