Longitudinal hair cortisol in bipolar disorder and a mechanism based on HPA dynamics.

Bipolar disorder (BD) is marked by fluctuating mood states over months to years, often with elevated cortisol levels. Elevated cortisol can also trigger mood episodes. Here, we combine longitudinal hair cortisol and mood measurements with mathematical modeling to provide a potential mechanistic link between cortisol and mood timescales in BD. Using 12 cm hair samples, representing a year of growth, we found enhanced year-scale cortisol fluctuations whose amplitude averaged 4-fold higher in BD (n = 26) participants than controls (n = 59). The proximal 2 cm of hair correlated with recent mood scores. Depression (n = 266) and mania (n = 273) scores from a longitudinal study of BD showed similar frequency spectra. These results suggest a mechanism for BD in which high emotional reactivity excites the slow timescales in the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis to generate elevated months-scale cortisol fluctuations, triggering cortisol-induced mood episodes.

A synthetic differentiation circuit in Escherichia coli for suppressing mutant takeover.

Differentiation is crucial for multicellularity. However, it is inherently susceptible to mutant cells that fail to differentiate. These mutants outcompete normal cells by excessive self-renewal. It remains unclear what mechanisms can resist such mutant expansion. Here, we demonstrate a solution by engineering a synthetic differentiation circuit in Escherichia coli that selects against these mutants via a biphasic fitness strategy. The circuit provides tunable production of synthetic analogs of stem, progenitor, and differentiated cells. It resists mutations by coupling differentiation to the production of an essential enzyme, thereby disadvantaging non-differentiating mutants. The circuit selected for and maintained a positive differentiation rate in long-term evolution. Surprisingly, this rate remained constant across vast changes in growth conditions. We found that transit-amplifying cells (fast-growing progenitors) underlie this environmental robustness. Our results provide insight into the stability of differentiation and demonstrate a powerful method for engineering evolutionarily stable multicellular consortia.

Tradeoffs in bacterial physiology determine the efficiency of antibiotic killing.

Antibiotic effectiveness depends on a variety of factors. While many mechanistic details of antibiotic action are known, the connection between death rate and bacterial physiology is poorly understood. A common observation is that death rate in antibiotics rises linearly with growth rate; however, it remains unclear how other factors, such as environmental conditions and whole-cell physiological properties, affect bactericidal activity. To address this, we developed a high-throughput assay to precisely measure antibiotic-mediated death. We found that death rate is linear in growth rate, but the slope depends on environmental conditions. Growth under stress lowers death rate compared to nonstressed environments with similar growth rate. To understand stress's role, we developed a mathematical model of bacterial death based on resource allocation that includes a stress-response sector; we identify this sector using RNA-seq. Our model accurately predicts the minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) with zero free parameters across a wide range of growth conditions. The model also quantitatively predicts death and MIC when sectors are experimentally modulated using cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP), including protection from death at very low cAMP levels. The present study shows that different conditions with equal growth rate can have different death rates and establishes a quantitative relation between growth, death, and MIC that suggests approaches to improve antibiotic efficacy.

Major depressive disorder and bistability in an HPA-CNS toggle switch.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the most common psychiatric disorder. It has a complex and heterogeneous etiology. Most treatments take weeks to show effects and work well only for a fraction of the patients. Thus, new concepts are needed to understand MDD and its dynamics. One of the strong correlates of MDD is increased activity and dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis which produces the stress hormone cortisol. Existing mathematical models of the HPA axis describe its operation on the scale of hours, and thus are unable to explore the dynamic on the scale of weeks that characterizes many aspects of MDD. Here, we propose a mathematical model of MDD on the scale of weeks, a timescale provided by the growth of the HPA hormone glands under control of HPA hormones. We add to this the mutual inhibition of the HPA axis and the hippocampus and other regions of the central nervous system (CNS) that forms a toggle switch. The model shows bistability between euthymic and depressed states, with a slow timescale of weeks in its dynamics. It explains why prolonged but not acute stress can trigger a self-sustaining depressive episode that persists even after the stress is removed. The model explains the weeks timescale for drugs to take effect, as well as the dysregulation of the HPA axis in MDD, based on gland mass changes. This understanding of MDD dynamics may help to guide strategies for treatment.

Excitable dynamics of flares and relapses in autoimmune diseases.

Many autoimmune disorders exhibit flares in which symptoms erupt and then decline, as exemplified by multiple sclerosis (MS) in its relapsing-remitting form. Existing mathematical models of autoimmune flares often assume regular oscillations, failing to capture the stochastic and non-periodic nature of flare-ups. We suggest that autoimmune flares are driven by excitable dynamics triggered by stochastic events auch as stress, infection and other factors. Our minimal model, involving autoreactive and regulatory T-cells, demonstrates this concept. Autoimmune response initiates antigen-induced expansion through positive feedback, while regulatory cells counter the autoreactive cells through negative feedback. The model explains the decrease in MS relapses during pregnancy and the subsequent surge postpartum, based on lymphocyte dynamics. Additionally, it identifies potential therapeutic targets, predicting significant reduction in relapse rate from mild adjustments of regulatory T cell activity or production. These findings indicate that excitable dynamics may underlie flare-ups across various autoimmune disorders, potentially informing treatment strategies.

The tumor microenvironment shows a hierarchy of cell-cell interactions dominated by fibroblasts.

The tumor microenvironment (TME) is comprised of non-malignant cells that interact with each other and with cancer cells, critically impacting cancer biology. The TME is complex, and understanding it requires simplifying approaches. Here we provide an experimental-mathematical approach to decompose the TME into small circuits of interacting cell types. We find, using female breast cancer single-cell-RNA-sequencing data, a hierarchical network of interactions, with cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) at the top secreting factors primarily to tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs). This network is composed of repeating circuit motifs. We isolate the strongest two-cell circuit motif by culturing fibroblasts and macrophages in-vitro, and analyze their dynamics and transcriptomes. This isolated circuit recapitulates the hierarchy of in-vivo interactions, and enables testing the effect of ligand-receptor interactions on cell dynamics and function, as we demonstrate by identifying a mediator of CAF-TAM interactions - RARRES2, and its receptor CMKLR1. Thus, the complexity of the TME may be simplified by identifying small circuits, facilitating the development of strategies to modulate the TME.

Damage dynamics and the role of chance in the timing of E. coli cell death.

Genetically identical cells in the same stressful condition die at different times. The origin of this stochasticity is unclear; it may arise from different initial conditions that affect the time of demise, or from a stochastic damage accumulation mechanism that erases the initial conditions and instead amplifies noise to generate different lifespans. To address this requires measuring damage dynamics in individual cells over the lifespan, but this has rarely been achieved. Here, we used a microfluidic device to measure membrane damage in 635 carbon-starved Escherichia coli cells at high temporal resolution. We find that initial conditions of damage, size or cell-cycle phase do not explain most of the lifespan variation. Instead, the data points to a stochastic mechanism in which noise is amplified by a rising production of damage that saturates its own removal. Surprisingly, the relative variation in damage drops with age: cells become more similar to each other in terms of relative damage, indicating increasing determinism with age. Thus, chance erases initial conditions and then gives way to increasingly deterministic dynamics that dominate the lifespan distribution.

Sex-dependent control of pheromones on social organization within groups of wild house mice.

Dominance hierarchy is a fundamental social phenomenon in a wide range of mammalian species, critically affecting fitness and health. Here, we investigate the role of pheromone signals in the control of social hierarchies and individual personalities within groups of wild mice. For this purpose, we combine high-throughput behavioral phenotyping with computational tools in freely interacting groups of wild house mice, males and females, in an automated, semi-natural system. We show that wild mice form dominance hierarchies in both sexes but use sex-specific strategies, displaying distinct male-typical and female-typical behavioral personalities that were also associated with social ranking. Genetic disabling of VNO-mediated pheromone detection generated opposite behavioral effects within groups, enhancing social interactions in males and reducing them in females. Behavioral personalities in the mutated mice displayed mixtures of male-typical and female-typical behaviors, thus blurring sex differences. In addition, rank-associated personalities were abolished despite the fact that both sexes of mutant mice formed stable hierarchies. These findings suggest that group organization is governed by pheromone-mediated sex-specific neural circuits and pave the way to investigate the mechanisms underlying sexual dimorphism in dominance hierarchies under naturalistic settings.

Rules for body fat interventions based on an operating point mechanism.

Interventions to reduce fat are important for human health. However, they can have opposing effects such as exercise that decreases fat but increases food intake, or coherent effects such as leptin resistance which raises both. Furthermore, some interventions show an overshoot in food intake, such as recovery from a diet, whereas others do not. To explain these properties we present a graphical framework called the operating point model, based on leptin control of feeding behavior. Steady-state fat and food intake is given by the intersection of two experimental curves - steady-state fat at a given food intake and ad libitum food intake at a given fat level. Depending on which curve an intervention shifts, it has opposing or coherent effects with or without overshoot, in excellent agreement with rodent data. The model also explains the quadratic relation between leptin and fat in humans. These concepts may guide the understanding of fat regulation disorders.

Dynamics of thyroid diseases and thyroid-axis gland masses.

Thyroid disorders are common and often require lifelong hormone replacement. Treating thyroid disorders involves a fascinating and troublesome delay, in which it takes many weeks for serum thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration to normalize after thyroid hormones return to normal. This delay challenges attempts to stabilize thyroid hormones in millions of patients. Despite its importance, the physiological mechanism for the delay is unclear. Here, we present data on hormone delays from Israeli medical records spanning 46 million life-years and develop a mathematical model for dynamic compensation in the thyroid axis, which explains the delays. The delays are due to a feedback mechanism in which peripheral thyroid hormones and TSH control the growth of the thyroid and pituitary glands; enlarged or atrophied glands take many weeks to recover upon treatment due to the slow turnover of the tissues. The model explains why thyroid disorders such as Hashimoto's thyroiditis and Graves' disease have both subclinical and clinical states and explains the complex inverse relation between TSH and thyroid hormones. The present model may guide approaches to dynamically adjust the treatment of thyroid disorders.

A Mechanism for Ovulation Number Control.

Every menstrual cycle, many follicles begin to develop but only a specific number ovulate. This ovulation number determines how many offspring are produced per litter, and differs between species. The physiological mechanism that controls ovulation number is unknown; a class of mathematical models can explain it, but these models have no physiological basis. Here, we suggest a physiological mechanism for ovulation number control, which enables selection of a specific number of follicles out of many, and analyze it in a mathematical model of follicular growth. The mechanism is based on a signal, intra-follicular androgen concentration, that measures follicle size relative to the other follicles. This signal has a biphasic effect, suppressing follicles that are too large or too small compared to others. The ovulation number is determined by the androgen inhibitory thresholds. The model has a scaling symmetry that explains why the dominant follicles grow linearly with time, as observed in human ultrasound data. This approach also explains how chronic hyperandrogenism disrupts ovulation in polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), a leading cause of infertility. We propose specific experiments for testing the proposed mechanism.

Controls for Phylogeny and Robust Analysis in Pareto Task Inference.

Understanding the tradeoffs faced by organisms is a major goal of evolutionary biology. One of the main approaches for identifying these tradeoffs is Pareto task inference (ParTI). Two recent papers claim that results obtained in ParTI studies are spurious due to phylogenetic dependence (Mikami T, Iwasaki W. 2021. The flipping t-ratio test: phylogenetically informed assessment of the Pareto theory for phenotypic evolution. Methods Ecol Evol. 12(4):696-706) or hypothetical p-hacking and population-structure concerns (Sun M, Zhang J. 2021. Rampant false detection of adaptive phenotypic optimization by ParTI-based Pareto front inference. Mol Biol Evol. 38(4):1653-1664). Here, we show that these claims are baseless. We present a new method to control for phylogenetic dependence, called SibSwap, and show that published ParTI inference is robust to phylogenetic dependence. We show how researchers avoided p-hacking by testing for the robustness of preprocessing choices. We also provide new methods to control for population structure and detail the experimental tests of ParTI in systems ranging from ammonites to cancer gene expression. The methods presented here may help to improve future ParTI studies.

Hormone seasonality in medical records suggests circannual endocrine circuits.

Hormones control the major biological functions of stress response, growth, metabolism, and reproduction. In animals, these hormones show pronounced seasonality, with different set-points for different seasons. In humans, the seasonality of these hormones remains unclear, due to a lack of datasets large enough to discern common patterns and cover all hormones. Here, we analyze an Israeli health record on 46 million person-years, including millions of hormone blood tests. We find clear seasonal patterns: The effector hormones peak in winter-spring, whereas most of their upstream regulating pituitary hormones peak only months later, in summer. This delay of months is unexpected because known delays in the hormone circuits last hours. We explain the precise delays and amplitudes by proposing and testing a mechanism for the circannual clock: The gland masses grow with a timescale of months due to trophic effects of the hormones, generating a feedback circuit with a natural frequency of about a year that can entrain to the seasons. Thus, humans may show coordinated seasonal set-points with a winter-spring peak in the growth, stress, metabolism, and reproduction axes.

Senescent cells and the incidence of age-related diseases.

Age-related diseases such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, kidney failure, and osteoarthritis have universal features: Their incidence rises exponentially with age with a slope of 6-8% per year and decreases at very old ages. There is no conceptual model which explains these features in so many diverse diseases in terms of a single shared biological factor. Here, we develop such a model, and test it using a nationwide medical record dataset on the incidence of nearly 1000 diseases over 50 million life-years, which we provide as a resource. The model explains incidence using the accumulation of senescent cells, damaged cells that cause inflammation and reduce regeneration, whose level rise stochastically with age. The exponential rise and late drop in incidence are captured by two parameters for each disease: the susceptible fraction of the population and the threshold concentration of senescent cells that causes disease onset. We propose a physiological mechanism for the threshold concentration for several disease classes, including an etiology for diseases of unknown origin such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and osteoarthritis. The model can be used to design optimal treatments that remove senescent cells, suggeting that treatment starting at old age can sharply reduce the incidence of all age-related diseases, and thus increase the healthspan.

Timescales of Human Hair Cortisol Dynamics.

Cortisol is a major human stress hormone, secreted within minutes of acute stress. Cortisol also has slower patterns of variation: a strong circadian rhythm and a seasonal rhythm. However, longitudinal cortisol dynamics in healthy individuals over timescales of months has rarely been studied. Here, we measured longitudinal cortisol in 55 healthy participants using 12 cm of hair, which provides a retrospective measurement over one year. Individuals showed (non-seasonal) fluctuations averaging about 22% around their baseline. Fourier analysis reveals dominant slow frequencies with periods of months to a year. These frequencies can be explained by a mathematical model of the hormonal cascade that controls cortisol, the HPA axis, when including the slow timescales of tissue turnover of the glands. Measuring these dynamics is important for understanding disorders in which cortisol secretion is impaired over months, such as mood disorders, and to test models of cortisol feedback control.

Endocrine Autoimmune Disease as a Fragility of Immune Surveillance against Hypersecreting Mutants.

Some endocrine organs are frequent targets of autoimmune attack. Here, we addressed the origin of autoimmune disease from the viewpoint of feedback control. Endocrine tissues maintain mass through feedback loops that balance cell proliferation and removal according to hormone-driven regulatory signals. We hypothesized the existence of a dedicated mechanism that detects and removes mutant cells that missense the signal and therefore hyperproliferate and hypersecrete with potential to disrupt organismal homeostasis. In this mechanism, hypersecreting cells are preferentially eliminated by autoreactive T cells at the cost of a fragility to autoimmune disease. The "autoimmune surveillance of hypersecreting mutants" (ASHM) hypothesis predicts the presence of autoreactive T cells in healthy individuals and the nature of self-antigens as peptides from hormone secretion pathway. It explains why some tissues get prevalent autoimmune disease, whereas others do not and instead show prevalent mutant-expansion disease (e.g., hyperparathyroidism). The ASHM hypothesis is testable, and we discuss experimental follow-up.

Principles of Cell Circuits for Tissue Repair and Fibrosis.

Tissue repair is a protective response after injury, but repetitive or prolonged injury can lead to fibrosis, a pathological state of excessive scarring. To pinpoint the dynamic mechanisms underlying fibrosis, it is important to understand the principles of the cell circuits that carry out tissue repair. In this study, we establish a cell-circuit framework for the myofibroblast-macrophage circuit in wound healing, including the accumulation of scar-forming extracellular matrix. We find that fibrosis results from multistability between three outcomes, which we term "hot fibrosis" characterized by many macrophages, "cold fibrosis" lacking macrophages, and normal wound healing. This framework clarifies several unexplained phenomena including the paradoxical effect of macrophage depletion, the limited time-window in which removing inflammation leads to healing, and why scar maturation takes months. We define key parameters that control the transition from healing to fibrosis, which may serve as potential targets for therapeutic reduction of fibrosis.

Cancer-associated fibroblast compositions change with breast cancer progression linking the ratio of S100A4+ and PDPN+ CAFs to clinical outcome.

Tumors are supported by cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs). CAFs are heterogeneous and carry out distinct cancer-associated functions. Understanding the full repertoire of CAFs and their dynamic changes as tumors evolve could improve the precision of cancer treatment. Here we comprehensively analyze CAFs using index and transcriptional single-cell sorting at several time points along breast tumor progression in mice, uncovering distinct subpopulations. Notably, the transcriptional programs of these subpopulations change over time and in metastases, transitioning from an immunoregulatory program to wound-healing and antigen-presentation programs, indicating that CAFs and their functions are dynamic. Two main CAF subpopulations are also found in human breast tumors, where their ratio is associated with disease outcome across subtypes and is particularly correlated with BRCA mutations in triple-negative breast cancer. These findings indicate that the repertoire of CAF changes over time in breast cancer progression, with direct clinical implications.

Noise-precision tradeoff in predicting combinations of mutations and drugs.

Many biological problems involve the response to multiple perturbations. Examples include response to combinations of many drugs, and the effects of combinations of many mutations. Such problems have an exponentially large space of combinations, which makes it infeasible to cover the entire space experimentally. To overcome this problem, several formulae that predict the effect of drug combinations or fitness landscape values have been proposed. These formulae use the effects of single perturbations and pairs of perturbations to predict triplets and higher order combinations. Interestingly, different formulae perform best on different datasets. Here we use Pareto optimality theory to quantitatively explain why no formula is optimal for all datasets, due to an inherent bias-variance (noise-precision) tradeoff. We calculate the Pareto front of log-linear formulae and find that the optimal formula depends on properties of the dataset: the typical interaction strength and the experimental noise. This study provides an approach to choose a suitable prediction formula for a given dataset, in order to best overcome the combinatorial explosion problem.

Central dogma rates and the trade-off between precision and economy in gene expression.

Steady-state protein abundance is set by four rates: transcription, translation, mRNA decay and protein decay. A given protein abundance can be obtained from infinitely many combinations of these rates. This raises the question of whether the natural rates for each gene result from historical accidents, or are there rules that give certain combinations a selective advantage? We address this question using high-throughput measurements in rapidly growing cells from diverse organisms to find that about half of the rate combinations do not exist: genes that combine high transcription with low translation are strongly depleted. This depletion is due to a trade-off between precision and economy: high transcription decreases stochastic fluctuations but increases transcription costs. Our theory quantitatively explains which rate combinations are missing, and predicts the curvature of the fitness function for each gene. It may guide the design of gene circuits with desired expression levels and noise.