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This study provides estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. agricultural yields and the agricultural economy through the end of the 21st century, utilizing multiple climate scenarios. Results from a process-based crop model project future increases in wheat, grassland, and soybean yield due to climate change and atmospheric CO2 change; corn and sorghum show more muted responses. Results using yields from econometric models show less positive results. Both the econometric and process-based models tend to show more positive yields by the end of the century than several other similar studies. Using the process-based model to provide future yield estimates to an integrated agricultural sector model, the welfare gain is roughly $16B/year (2019 USD) for domestic producers and $6.2B/year for international trade, but domestic consumers lose $10.6B/year, resulting in a total welfare gain of $11.7B/year. When yield projections for major crops are drawn instead from econometric models, total welfare losses of more than $28B/year arise. Simulations using the process-based model as input to the agricultural sector model show large future production increases for soybean, wheat, and sorghum and large price reductions for corn and wheat. The most important factors are those about economic growth, flooding, international trade, and the type of yield model used. Somewhat less, but not insignificant factors include adaptation, livestock productivity, and damages from surface ozone, waterlogging, and pests and diseases.
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Chemical pollution threatens human health and ecosystem sustainability. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) like per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are expensive to clean up once emitted. Innovative and synergistic strategies are urgently needed, yet process integration and cost-effectiveness remain challenging. An in-situ PFAS remediation system is developed to employ a plant-derived biomimetic nano-framework to achieve highly efficient adsorption and subsequent fungal biotransformation synergistically. The multiple component framework is presented as Renewable Artificial Plant for In-situ Microbial Environmental Remediation (RAPIMER). RAPIMER exhibits high adsorption capacity for the PFAS compounds and diverse adsorption capability toward co-contaminants. Subsequently, RAPIMER provides the substrates and contaminants for in situ bioremediation via fungus Irpex lacteus and promotes PFAS detoxification. RAPIMER arises from cheap lignocellulosic sources, enabling a broader impact on sustainability and a means for low-cost pollutant remediation.
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Poluentes Ambientais , Recuperação e Remediação Ambiental , Fluorocarbonos , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Biodegradação Ambiental , Biomimética , Ecossistema , Fluorocarbonos/análise , Humanos , Lignina , Poluentes Químicos da Água/análiseRESUMO
Understanding greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the U.S. agriculture and forest sectors is critical for evaluating potential pathways to limit global average temperatures from rising more than 2° C. Using the FASOMGHG model, parameterized to reflect varying conditions across shared socioeconomic pathways, we project the greenhouse gas mitigation potential from U.S. agriculture and forestry across a range of carbon price scenarios. Under a moderate price scenario ($20 per ton CO2 with a 3% annual growth rate), cumulative mitigation potential over 2015-2055 varies substantially across SSPs, from 8.3 to 17.7 GtCO2e. Carbon sequestration in forests contributes the majority, 64-71%, of total mitigation across both sectors. We show that under a high income and population growth scenario over 60% of the total projected increase in forest carbon is driven by growth in demand for forest products, while mitigation incentives result in the remainder. This research sheds light on the interactions between alternative socioeconomic narratives and mitigation policy incentives which can help prioritize outreach, investment, and targeted policies for reducing emissions from and storing more carbon in these land use systems.
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Pesticide use in peri-urban areas affects the urban environment and public health, and reducing the use may present food security issues for urban dwellers. In this study, we explore how a municipality-adopted goal of a 20% reduction in pesticide use could be achieved, along with local food security and environmental implications, for Shanghai located in the densely populated East China. A regional Shanghai Agricultural Sector Model incorporating district- and technology-varying crop budgets, was developed to simulate the effects of pesticide reduction policy. Here we find that achieving the reduction goal had the largest implications in districts with high pesticide use totals and intensities, potentially reducing pesticide non-point source pollution in the Yangtze River Estuary and Dianshan Lake; the production levels of rice and leafy vegetables would be most affected; and adopting machinery that allows more precise pesticide application modulates these results. Moreover, imposing the requirements at the district-level caused more severe local food security concerns, and less environmental benefits. Furthermore, a closed Shanghai's agricultural economy would substantially enlarge the regional heterogeneity in the above-mentioned outcomes. Exploring the effects of a quantity control policy on current-use pesticides at different aggregation levels has important implications for regulating the use of agrochemicals.
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We examine the impact of current and future climate on crop mixes over space in the US. We find using historical data that temperature and precipitation are among the causal factors for shits in crop production location and mixes, with some crops being more sensitive than others. In particular, we find that when temperature rises, cotton, rice, sorghum and winter wheat are more likely to be chosen. We also find that barley, sorghum, winter wheat, spring wheat and hay are more likely to be chosen as regions become drier, and corn, cotton, rice and soybeans are more likely to be selected in wetter regions. Additionally, we assess how much of the observed crop mix shifts between 1970 and 2010 were contributed to by climate change. There we find climate explains about 7-50% of the shift in latitude, 20-36% in longitude and 4-28% of that in elevation. Finally, we estimate climate change impacts on future crop mix under CMIP5 scenarios. There we find shifts in US production regions for almost all major crops with the movement north and east. The estimates describe how the farmers respond to altering climate and can be used for planning future crop allocations.
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Taiwan suffers from energy insecurity and the threat of potential damage from global climate changes. Finding ways to alleviate these forces is the key to Taiwan's future social and economic development. This study examines the economic and environmental impacts when ethanol, conventional electricity and pyrolysis-based electricity are available alternatives. Biochar, as one of the most important by-product from pyrolysis, has the potential to provide significant environmental benefits. Therefore, alternative uses of biochar are also examined in this study. In addition, because planting energy crops would change the current land use pattern, resulting in significant land greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions, this important factor is also incorporated. Results show that bioenergy production can satisfy part of Taiwan's energy demand, but net GHG emissions offset declines if ethanol is chosen. Moreover, at high GHG price conventional electricity and ethanol will be driven out and pyrolysis will be a dominant technology. Fast pyrolysis dominates when ethanol and GHG prices are low, but slow pyrolysis is dominant at high GHG price, especially when land GHG emissions are endogenously incorporated. The results indicate that when land GHG emission is incorporated, up to 3.8 billion kWh electricity can be produced from fast pyrolysis, while up to 2.2 million tons of CO2 equivalent can be offset if slow pyrolysis is applied.
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Fontes Geradoras de Energia/economia , Efeito Estufa , Modelos Econômicos , Biomassa , Carvão Vegetal/economia , Gases , Temperatura Alta , TaiwanRESUMO
In this study our aim was to value the benefits of rapid effective trace-back capability-based on a livestock identification system - in the event of a foot and mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. We simulated an FMD outbreak in the Texas High Plains, an area of high livestock concentration, beginning in a large feedlot. Disease spread was simulated under different time dependent animal tracing scenarios. In the specific scenario modeled (incursion of FMD within a large feedlot, detection within 14 days and 90% effective tracing), simulation suggested that control costs of the outbreak significantly increase if tracing does not occur until day 10 as compared to the baseline of tracing on day 2. In addition, control costs are significantly increased if effectiveness were to drop to 30% as compared to the baseline of 90%. Results suggest potential benefits from rapid effective tracing in terms of reducing government control costs; however, a variety of other scenarios need to be explored before determining in which situations rapid effective trace-back capability is beneficial.
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Criação de Animais Domésticos/métodos , Sistemas de Identificação Animal/métodos , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Febre Aftosa/epidemiologia , Criação de Animais Domésticos/economia , Criação de Animais Domésticos/instrumentação , Sistemas de Identificação Animal/economia , Sistemas de Identificação Animal/veterinária , Animais , Bovinos , Doenças dos Bovinos/virologia , Simulação por Computador , Monitoramento Epidemiológico/veterinária , Febre Aftosa/virologia , Modelos Biológicos , Texas/epidemiologia , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.
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Mudança Climática , Malária/economia , Modelos Econométricos , África/epidemiologia , Humanos , Pacientes Internados , Malária/epidemiologia , Malária/terapia , Malária/transmissão , Pacientes Ambulatoriais , Chuva , TemperaturaRESUMO
The epidemic and economic impacts of Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) spread and control were examined by using epidemic simulation and economic (epinomic) optimization models. The simulated index herd was a ≥2,000 cow dairy located in California. Simulated disease spread was limited to California; however, economic impact was assessed throughout the United States and included international trade effects. Five index case detection delays were examined, which ranged from 7 to 22 days. The simulated median number of infected premises (IP) ranged from approximately 15 to 745, increasing as the detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days. Similarly, the median number of herds under quarantine increased from approximately 680 to 6,200, whereas animals slaughtered went from approximately 8,700 to 260,400 for detection delays of 7-22 days, respectively. The median economic impact of an FMD outbreak in California was estimated to result in national agriculture welfare losses of $2.3-$69.0 billion as detection delay increased from 7 to 22 days, respectively. If assuming a detection delay of 21 days, it was estimated that, for every additional hr of delay, the impact would be an additional approximately 2,000 animals slaughtered and an additional economic loss of $565 million. These findings underline the critical importance that the United States has an effective early detection system in place before an introduction of FMDV if it hopes to avoid dramatic losses to both livestock and the economy.
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Doenças dos Bovinos/economia , Doenças dos Bovinos/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/veterinária , Febre Aftosa/economia , Febre Aftosa/epidemiologia , Modelos Biológicos , Modelos Econômicos , Animais , California/epidemiologia , Bovinos , Simulação por Computador , Surtos de Doenças/economia , Feminino , Vírus da Febre Aftosa/isolamento & purificação , Processos EstocásticosRESUMO
This paper examines the vulnerabilities of major livestock species raised in Australia to climate change using the regional livestock profile of Australia of around 1,400 regions. The number of each species owned, the number of each species sold, and the aggregate livestock revenue across all species are examined. The four major species analyzed are sheep, beef cattle, dairy cattle, and pigs. The analysis also includes livestock products such as wool and milk. These livestock production statistics are regressed against climate, geophysical, market and household characteristics. In contrast to crop studies, the analysis finds that livestock species are resilient to a hotter and more arid climate. Under the CSIRO climate scenario in which temperature increases by 3.4 °C, livestock revenue per farm increases significantly while the number of each species owned increases by large percentages except for dairy cattle. The precipitation reduction by about 8% in 2060 also increases the numbers of livestock species per farm household. Under both UKMO and GISS scenarios, livestock revenue is expected to increase by around 47% while the livestock population increases by large percentage. Livestock management may play a key role in adapting to a hot and arid climate in Australia. However, critical values of the climatic variables for the species analyzed in this paper are not obvious from the regional data.
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Agricultural lands occupy 37% of the earth's land surface. Agriculture accounts for 52 and 84% of global anthropogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions. Agricultural soils may also act as a sink or source for CO2, but the net flux is small. Many agricultural practices can potentially mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the most prominent of which are improved cropland and grazing land management and restoration of degraded lands and cultivated organic soils. Lower, but still significant mitigation potential is provided by water and rice management, set-aside, land use change and agroforestry, livestock management and manure management. The global technical mitigation potential from agriculture (excluding fossil fuel offsets from biomass) by 2030, considering all gases, is estimated to be approximately 5500-6000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1, with economic potentials of approximately 1500-1600, 2500-2700 and 4000-4300Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at carbon prices of up to 20, up to 50 and up to 100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively. In addition, GHG emissions could be reduced by substitution of fossil fuels for energy production by agricultural feedstocks (e.g. crop residues, dung and dedicated energy crops). The economic mitigation potential of biomass energy from agriculture is estimated to be 640, 2240 and 16 000Mt CO2-eq.yr-1 at 0-20, 0-50 and 0-100 US$ t CO2-eq.-1, respectively.
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Agricultura/métodos , Criação de Animais Domésticos/métodos , Produtos Agrícolas/metabolismo , Ecossistema , Fontes Geradoras de Energia , Efeito Estufa , Agricultura/economia , Criação de Animais Domésticos/economia , Animais , Biomassa , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Análise Custo-Benefício , Fontes Geradoras de Energia/economia , Humanos , EstercoRESUMO
Carbon sequestration strategies highlight tree plantations without considering their full environmental consequences. We combined field research, synthesis of more than 600 observations, and climate and economic modeling to document substantial losses in stream flow, and increased soil salinization and acidification, with afforestation. Plantations decreased stream flow by 227 millimeters per year globally (52%), with 13% of streams drying completely for at least 1 year. Regional modeling of U.S. plantation scenarios suggests that climate feedbacks are unlikely to offset such water losses and could exacerbate them. Plantations can help control groundwater recharge and upwelling but reduce stream flow and salinize and acidify some soils.