The junior doctor changeover effect: does it exist in general surgery?

INTRODUCTION: Junior doctor changeover has been perceived as a period of increased risk to patients. However, there is a paucity of contemporary evidence of this 'changeover effect'. The aim of this study was to evaluate the presence of an adverse patient effect during periods of junior doctor changeover. METHODS: Data were requested on all patients aged 18 years or older admitted acutely under General Surgery in the North of England between 2005 and 2016. This included patient characteristics, diagnoses, comorbidities, procedure codes, mortality and length of stay. Patients were included in the study if they were admitted during the 'changeover week'; defined as the first day of the changeover followed by the six subsequent days. For junior trainees (FY1-CT2), this is the first Wednesday of August, December and April each year. For higher surgical trainees (ST3-ST8), it is the first Wednesday in October. Another week, four weeks prior, was chosen as a historical comparator. RESULTS: In total, 61,714 patients were included in this study. Patient characteristics did not vary between the cohorts. There was no difference in 30-day mortality between changeover and non-changeover groups (2.5% vs 2.6%, p = 0.280) or length of stay (5.3 vs 5.2, p = 0.613). Changeover week was not a predictor of increased mortality (OR 1.06, p = 0.302) following multivariable adjustment. Further analysis of the first junior and higher specialty trainee periods, August and October, respectively, showed no significant difference for measured outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective cohort study provides contemporary evidence that the 'changeover effect' does not exist in acute general surgical admissions in the UK.

Patient Outcomes Following Emergency Bowel Resection for Inflammatory Bowel Disease and the Impact of Surgical Subspecialisation in the North of England: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) has changed considerably over recent years, which has coincided with increased subspecialisation amongst general surgeons. This study evaluated the demographics and outcomes of patients with IBD undergoing bowel resection and assessed for the potential impact of surgical subspecialisation. METHODS: Patient demographic, operative and outcome data were collected for patients undergoing a bowel resection secondary to IBD, admitted acutely to NHS trusts in the North of England between 2002 and 2016. The primary outcome of interest was 30-day post-operative mortality, with secondary outcomes: length of stay, stoma and anastomosis rates. RESULTS: A total of 913 patients were included in the study cohort. A reduction in the number of resections was noted over time (2002-2006: 361 vs. 2012-2016: 262). No change was observed for 30-day mortality over the study period (3.9%, p = 0.233). Length of stay was also unchanged (p = 0.949). Laparoscopic surgery was increasingly utilised (0.6% vs. 17.2%, p < 0.001) in recent years, and by colorectal subspecialists (p = 0.003). More patients were managed by a colorectal consultant latterly (2002-2006: 45.4% vs. 2012-2016: 63.7%, p < 0.001). There was no difference between colorectal and other subspecialists in mortality (p = 0.156), length of stay (p = 0.201), stoma (p = 0.629) or anastomosis (p = 0.659) rates, including following multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSION: The study demonstrated a significant reduction in the number of resections over time, increased utilisation of a laparoscopic approach and a shift towards the care of IBD surgical patients being by a colorectal subspecialist. However, these changes do not correspond with improved surgical outcomes.

Perforated diverticulitis in the North of England: trends in patient outcomes, management approach and the influence of subspecialisation.

INTRODUCTION: In recent years, several management options have been used in the management of perforated diverticulitis, ranging from conservative treatment to laparotomy. General surgery has also become increasingly specialised over time. This retrospective cohort study investigated changes in patient outcomes following perforated diverticulitis, management approach and the influence of consultant subspecialisation over time. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data was collected on patients admitted with perforated diverticulitis in the North of England between 2002 and 2016. Subspecialisation was categorised as colorectal or other general subspecialties. The primary outcome of interest was overall 30-day mortality; secondary outcomes included surgical approach, stoma and anastomosis rate. RESULTS: A total of 3394 cases of perforated diverticulitis were analysed (colorectal, n = 1290 and other subspecialists, n = 2104) with a 30-day mortality of 11.6%. There was a significant reduction in mortality over time (2002-2006: 18.6% to 2012-2016: 6.8, P < 0.001).There was a significant reduction in open surgery (60% to 25.3%, P < 0.001) with increased conservative management (37.4% to 63.5%, P < 0.001), laparoscopic resection (0.1% to 4.9%, P < 0.001) and laparoscopic washout (0.1% to 5.7%, P < 0.001).Patients admitted under colorectal surgeons had lower mortality than other subspecialists (9.9% vs 12.4%, P = 0.027), which remained significant following multivariate adjustment (hazard ratio 1.44, P = 0.039). These patients had fewer stomas (13.9% vs. 21.0%, P = 0.001) and higher anastomosis rates (22.1% vs 15.8%, P = 0.004). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated considerable improvements in the management of perforated diverticulitis alongside the positive impact of subspecialisation on patient outcomes.

Retrospective analysis of 30-day mortality for emergency general surgery admissions evaluating the weekend effect.

BACKGROUND: The weekend effect describes excess mortality associated with hospital admission on Saturday or Sunday. This study assessed whether a weekend effect exists for patients admitted for emergency general surgery. METHODS: Data for emergency general surgical admissions to National Health Service hospitals in the Northern Deanery in England between 2000 and 2014 were collected, including demographics, co-morbidities, diagnoses, operations undertaken and outcomes. The primary outcome of interest was in-hospital death within 30 days of admission. Cox regression analysis was undertaken with adjustment for co-variables. RESULTS: There were 12 100 in-hospital deaths within 30 days of admission (3·3 per cent). The overall 30-day mortality rate reduced significantly during the 15-year interval studied, from 5·4 per cent (2000-2004) to 4·0 per cent (2005-2009) and 2·9 per cent during 2010-2014 (P < 0·001). There was no significant mortality difference for patients admitted at the weekend in adjusted Cox models (hazard ratio (HR) 1·00 for Saturday and 0·90 for Sunday, versus Wednesday). There was a significantly higher mortality for operations undertaken at the weekend (HR 1·15 for Saturday and 1·40 for Sunday; P = 0·021 and P < 0·001 respectively). The significantly increased mortality that was evident for emergency surgery at the weekend compared with weekdays in 2000-2004 (HR 1·46 for Saturday and 1·55 for Sunday; both P < 0·001); had reduced by 2010-2014, when the adjusted mortality risk was not significant (HR 1·18 for Saturday and 1·12 for Sunday). CONCLUSION: During the past 15 years there has been a weekend effect in patients undergoing emergency general surgery based on day of operation, but not day of admission. Overall mortality for emergency general surgery has improved significantly, and in the past 5 years the increased mortality risk of weekend surgery has reduced.

Attrition and weight loss outcomes for patients with complex obesity, anxiety and depression attending a weight management programme with targeted psychological treatment.

The objective of the study is to investigate the effect of baseline anxiety and depression, using different definitions for caseness, on attrition and weight outcomes following a multidisciplinary weight management programme. The study design is a prospective observational study. The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was used to measure anxiety and depression with 'caseness' scoring ≥11 and severity ≥14. The participants were all patients who began a weight management programme between 1 October 2008 and 30 September 2009 (n = 1838). The setting was the Glasgow and Clyde Weight Management Service (GCWMS), a specialist multidisciplinary service, which aims to achieve a minimum of ≥5 kg weight loss. The results were as follows: patients with HADS score ≥14 were referred to the integrated psychology service for psychological assessment or intervention. Patients with caseness (HADS ≥11) for anxiety (33%) and depression (27%) were significantly younger, heavier, more socio-economically deprived and a higher proportion was female. There was a significant positive correlation between HADS anxiety and depression scores and increasing body mass index (r(2) = 0.094, P < 0.001 and r(2) = 0.175, P < 0.001, respectively). Attendance and completion was lower throughout follow-up amongst patients with anxiety or depression. More patients with HADS score ≥11 achieved ≥5 kg or ≥5% weight loss and by 12 months those with anxiety had a significantly higher mean weight loss (P = 0.032). Participants who scored for severe anxiety (HADS ≥14) achieved similar weight loss to those without, whilst participants who scored for severe depression achieved significantly greater weight loss than non-cases at 3, 6 and 12 months of follow-up (P < 0.01). Despite a less favourable case-mix of risk-factors for poor weight loss, patients who scored caseness for severe anxiety or depression and were offered additional psychological input achieved similar or better weight loss outcomes.

Effect of assay specificity on the association of urine 11-dehydro thromboxane B2 determination with cardiovascular risk.

BACKGROUND: Elevated urine 11-dehydro TXB(2), an indicator of persistent thromboxane generation in aspirin-treated patients, correlates with adverse cardiovascular outcome and has recently been identified as an independent risk factor for vein graft thrombosis after cardiac bypass surgery in the Reduction in Graft Occlusion Rates (RIGOR) study. The polyclonal antibody-based ELISA used to measure 11-dehydro TXB(2) in these previous studies is no longer clinically available and has been supplanted by a Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-cleared second-generation monoclonal antibody-based ELISA. OBJECTIVES: To compare the laboratory and clinical performance of the first- and second-generation assays in a well-defined study population. METHODS: 11-dehydro TXB(2) was quantified in 451 urine samples from 229 Reduction in Graft Occlusion Rates (RIGOR) subjects using both ELISA. Ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS) and spiking studies were used to investigate discordant assay results. The association of 11-dehydro TXB(2) to clinical outcome was assessed for each assay using multivariate modeling. RESULTS: Median 11-dehydro TXB(2) levels were higher by monoclonal antibody- compared with polyclonal antibody-based ELISA (856 vs. 399 pg mg(-1) creatinine, P < 0.000001), with the latter providing values similar to UPLC-MS/MS. This discrepancy was predominantly as a result of cross-reactivity of the monoclonal antibody with 11-dehydro-2,3-dinor TXB(2), a thromboxane metabolite present in a similar concentration but with a poor direct correlation with 11-dehydro TXB(2). In contrast to the first-generation ELISA, 11-dehydro TXB(2) measured by the monoclonal antibody-based ELISA failed to associate with the risk of vein graft occlusion. CONCLUSION: Quantification of urine 11-dehydro TXB(2) by monoclonal antibody-based ELISA was confounded by interference from 11-dehydro-2,3-dinor TXB(2) which reduced the accuracy and clinical utility of this second-generation assay.

Relative importance of patient, procedural and anatomic risk factors for early vein graft thrombosis after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

AIM: The aim of the present study was to investigate the relative importance of a wide array of patient demographic, procedural, anatomic and perioperative variables as potential risk factors for early saphenous vein graft (SVG) thrombosis after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery. METHODS: The patency of 611 SVGs in 291 patients operated on at four different hospitals enrolled in the Reduction in Graft Occlusion Rates (RIGOR) study was assessed six months after CABG surgery by multidetector computed tomography coronary angiography or clinically-indicated coronary angiography. The odds of graft occlusion versus patency were analyzed using multilevel multivariate logistic regression with clustering on patient. RESULTS: SVG failure within six months of CABG surgery was predominantly an all-or-none phenomenon with 126 (20.1%) SVGs totally occluded, 485 (77.3%) widely patent and only 16 (2.5%) containing high-grade stenoses. Target vessel diameter ≤ 1.5 mm (adjusted OR 2.37, P=0.003) and female gender (adjusted OR 2.46, P=0.01) were strongly associated with early SVG occlusion. In a subgroup analysis of 354 SVGs in which intraoperative graft blood flow was measured, lower mean flow was also significantly associated with SVG occlusion when analyzed as a continuous variable (adjusted OR 0.984, P=0.006) though not when analyzed dichotomously, <40 mL/min versus ≥ 40 mL/min (adjusted OR 1.86, P=0.08). CONCLUSION: Small target vessel diameter, female gender and low mean graft blood flow are significant risk factors for SVG thrombosis within six months of CABG surgery in patients on postoperative aspirin therapy. This information may be useful in guiding revascularization strategies in selected patients.

Prediction of toxigenic fungal growth in buildings by using a novel modelling system.

There is growing concern about the adverse effects of fungal bioaerosols on the occupants of damp dwellings. Based on an extensive analysis of previously published data and on experiments carried out within this study, critical limits for the growth of the indoor fungi Eurotium herbariorum, Aspergillus versicolor, and Stachybotrys chartarum were mathematically described in terms of growth limit curves (isopleths) which define the minimum combination of temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) at which growth will occur. Each growth limit curve was generated from a series of data points on a T-RH plot and mathematically fitted by using a third-order polynomial equation of the form RH = a(3)T(3) + a(2)T(2) + a(1)T + a(0). This fungal growth prediction model was incorporated within the ESP-r (Environmental Systems Performance [r stands for "research"]) computer-based program for transient simulation of the energy and environmental performance of buildings. For any specified location, the ESP-r system is able to predict the time series evolution of local surface temperature and relative humidity, taking explicit account of constructional moisture flow, moisture generation sources, and air movement. This allows the predicted local conditions to be superimposed directly onto fungal growth curves. The concentration of plotted points relative to the curves allows an assessment of the risk of fungal growth. The system's predictive capability was tested via laboratory experiments and by comparison with monitored data from a fungus-contaminated house.

Occupational hot exposures: a review of heat and mass transfer theory.

The assessment and control of hot working environments is based on an appraisal of the thermal interaction between an individual and the surroundings. This paper examines in detail the processes of convection, radiation and evaporation which constitute the principal mechanisms for this interaction. The defining equations are discussed with particular attention given to the appropriate numerical values of body heat and mass transfer coefficients. The use of the heat-mass transfer analogy for the prediction of the mass transfer coefficient is introduced and verified. Finally, recommendations are given as to the most appropriate set of energy exchange equations for use in the analysis of high-temperature environments. The physiological criteria involved in hot working conditions, and the generation of a suitable assessment procedure based on the energy exchange equations, are the subject of a companion paper.

Occupational hot exposures: body physiology and an approach to numerical assessment.

This paper summarizes the factors which influence the energy exchange processes between an individual and his surroundings and the mechanisms by which the body attempts to maintain itself in a heat balance situation. Thereafter, the important physiological reactions to hot working conditions are described and, on this basis, a numerical assessment procedure is proposed. Examples are given of the use of this method in investigating the possibility of heat stress and estimating the time for which an acclimatized worker can safely be exposed in such circumstances. An increase in the permissible exposure time through a manipulation of the environmental parameters is also considered.