Expanding Medicaid to Reduce Human Immunodeficiency Virus Transmission in Houston, Texas: Insights From a Modeling Study.

CONTEXT: Medicaid expansion has been nationally shown to improve engagement in the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment and prevention continua, which are vital steps to stopping the HIV epidemic. New HIV infections in the United States are disproportionately concentrated among young Black men who have sex with men (YBMSM). Houston, TX, is the most populous city in the Southern United States with a racially/ethnically diverse population that is located in 1 of 11 US states that have not yet expanded Medicaid coverage as of 2021. METHODS: An agent-based model that incorporated the sexual networks of YBMSM was used to simulate improved antiretroviral treatment and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) engagement through Medicaid expansion in Houston, TX. Analyses considered the HIV incidence (number of new infections and as a rate metric) among YBMSM over the next 10 years under Medicaid expansion as the primary outcome. Additional scenarios, involving viral suppression and PrEP uptake above the projected levels achieved under Medicaid expansion, were also simulated. RESULTS: The baseline model projected an HIV incidence rate of 4.96 per 100 person years (py) and about 368 new annual HIV infections in the 10th year. Improved HIV treatment and prevention continua engagement under Medicaid expansion resulted in a 14.9% decline in the number of annual new HIV infections in the 10th year. Increasing viral suppression by an additional 15% and PrEP uptake by 30% resulted in a 44.0% decline in new HIV infections in the 10th year, and a 27.1% decline in cumulative infections across the 10 years of the simulated intervention. FINDINGS: Simulation results indicate that Medicaid expansion has the potential to reduce HIV incidence among YBMSM in Houston. Achieving HIV elimination objectives, however, might require additional effective measures to increase antiretroviral treatment and PrEP uptake beyond the projected improvements under expanded Medicaid.

The association between maternal parity and birth defects.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies observed that first birth is associated with an increased risk of some categories of birth defects. However, multiple statistical tests were conducted and it was unclear which of these associations would be replicated in a larger study. We used a large database to assess the association between maternal parity and 65 birth defects including birth defects that have not been previously studied. METHODS: Using data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for years 1999-2009, the risk of a birth defect occurring in a first, third, or fourth or higher birth was compared to the risk of a birth defect occurring in a second birth. RESULTS: Women having their first birth had significantly increased odds of having an infant with 24 of 65 categories of birth defects when compared to women having their second birth. We also observed associations between first birth and an increased risk of five birth defects not previously reported (small penis, preaxial polydactyly, anomalies of the thoracic vertebrae, anomalies of the lumbar vertebrae, and sacroccygeal anomalies). Women having their third or fourth or higher birth had significantly increased odds of giving birth to infants with five of 65 birth defects when compared to second births. CONCLUSIONS: Our observations regarding the categories of birth defects that were associated with first births were highly consistent with observations from two previous studies. Research into biological, behavioral, and environmental factors that may increase the risk of specific birth defects among first births is needed to further explore these associations.

Is maternal parity an independent risk factor for birth defects?

BACKGROUND: Although associations between maternal parity and birth defects have been observed previously, few studies have focused on the possibility that parity is an independent risk factor for birth defects. We investigated the relation between levels of parity and a range of birth defects, adjusting each defect group for the same covariates. METHODS: We included infants who had an estimated delivery date between 1997 and 2007 and participated in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a multisite case-control study. Cases included infants or fetuses belonging to 38 phenotypes of birth defects (n = 17,908), and controls included infants who were unaffected by a major birth defect (n = 7173). Odds ratios (ORs) were adjusted for 12 covariates using logistic regression. RESULTS: Compared with primiparous mothers, nulliparous mothers were more likely to have infants with amniotic band sequence, hydrocephaly, esophageal atresia, hypospadias, limb reduction deficiencies, diaphragmatic hernia, omphalocele, gastroschisis, tetralogy of Fallot, and septal cardiac defects, with significant ORs (1.2 to 2.3). Compared with primiparous mothers, multiparous mothers had a significantly increased risk of omphalocele, with an OR of 1.5, but had significantly decreased risk of hypospadias and limb reduction deficiencies, with ORs of 0.77 and 0.77. CONCLUSIONS: Nulliparity was associated with an increased risk of specific phenotypes of birth defects. Most of the phenotypes associated with nulliparity in this study were consistent with those identified by previous studies. Research into biologic or environmental factors that are associated with nulliparity may be helpful in explaining some or all of these associations.