Using the kidney failure risk equation to predict end-stage kidney disease in CKD patients of South Asian ethnicity: an external validation study.

BACKGROUND: The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) predicts the 2- and 5-year risk of needing kidney replacement therapy (KRT) using four risk factors - age, sex, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Although the KFRE has been recalibrated in a UK cohort, this did not consider minority ethnic groups. Further validation of the KFRE in different ethnicities is a research priority. The KFRE also does not consider the competing risk of death, which may lead to overestimation of KRT risk. This study externally validates the KFRE for patients of South Asian ethnicity and compares methods for accounting for ethnicity and the competing event of death. METHODS: Data were gathered from an established UK cohort containing 35,539 individuals diagnosed with chronic kidney disease. The KFRE was externally validated and updated in several ways taking into account ethnicity, using recognised methods for time-to-event data, including the competing risk of death. A clinical impact assessment compared the updated models through consideration of referrals made to secondary care. RESULTS: The external validation showed the risk of KRT differed by ethnicity. Model validation performance improved when incorporating ethnicity and its interactions with ACR and eGFR as additional risk factors. Furthermore, accounting for the competing risk of death improved prediction. Using criteria of 5 years ≥ 5% predicted KRT risk, the competing risks model resulted in an extra 3 unnecessary referrals (0.59% increase) but identified an extra 1 KRT case (1.92% decrease) compared to the previous best model. Hybrid criteria of predicted risk using the competing risks model and ACR ≥ 70 mg/mmol should be used in referrals to secondary care. CONCLUSIONS: The accuracy of KFRE prediction improves when updated to consider South Asian ethnicity and to account for the competing risk of death. This may reduce unnecessary referrals whilst identifying risks of KRT and could further individualise the KFRE and improve its clinical utility. Further research should consider other ethnicities.

Seasonal mortality trends for hospitalised patients with acute kidney injury across England.

BACKGROUND: Incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) is known to peak in winter months. This is likely influenced by seasonality of commonly associated acute illnesses. We set out to assess seasonal mortality trends for patients who develop AKI across the English National Health Service (NHS) and to better understand associations with patient 'case-mix'. METHODS: The study cohort included all hospitalised adult patients in England who triggered a biochemical AKI alert in 2017. We modelled the impact of season on 30-day mortality using multivariable logistic regression; adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, index of multiple deprivation (IMD), primary diagnosis, comorbidity (RCCI), elective/emergency admission, peak AKI stage and community/hospital acquired AKI. Seasonal odds ratios for AKI mortality were then calculated and compared across individual NHS hospital trusts. RESULTS: The crude 30-day mortality for hospitalised AKI patients was 33% higher in winter compared to summer. Case-mix adjustment for a wide range of clinical and demographic factors did not fully explain excess winter mortality. The adjusted odds ratio of patients dying in winter vs. summer was 1.25 (1.22-1.29), this was higher than for Autumn and Spring vs. Summer, 1.09 (1.06-1.12) and 1.07 (1.04-1.11) respectively and varied across different NHS trusts (9 out of 90 centres outliers). CONCLUSION: We have demonstrated an excess winter mortality risk for hospitalised patients with AKI across the English NHS, which could not be fully explained by seasonal variation in patient case-mix. Whilst the explanation for worse winter outcomes is not clear, unaccounted differences including 'winter-pressures' merit further investigation.

National recommendations to standardise acute kidney injury detection and alerting.

BACKGROUND: National Health Service England issued a Patient Safety Alert in 2014 mandating all acute Trusts in England to implement Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) warning stage results and to do so using a standardised algorithm. In 2021, the Renal and Pathology Getting It Right First Time (GIRFT) teams found significant variation in AKI reporting across the UK. A survey was designed to capture information on the entire AKI detection and alerting process to investigate the potential sources of this unwarranted variation. METHODS: In August 2021, an online survey consisting of 54 questions was made available to all UK laboratories. The questions covered creatinine assays, laboratory information management systems (LIMS), the AKI algorithm and AKI reporting. RESULTS: We received 101 responses from laboratories. Data were reviewed for England only - 91 laboratories. Findings included that 72% used enzymatic creatinine. In addition, 7 manufacturer-analytical platforms, 15 different LIMS and a wide range of creatinine reference ranges were in use. In 68% of laboratories, the AKI algorithm was installed by the LIMS provider. Marked variation was found in the minimum age of AKI reporting with only 18% starting at the recommended 1 month/28-days. Some 89% phoned all new AKI2s and AKI3s, as per AKI guidance while 76% provided comments/hyperlinks in reports. CONCLUSIONS: The national survey has identified laboratory practices that potentially contribute to unwarranted variation in the reporting of AKI in the England. This has formed the basis for improvement work to remedy the situation, including national recommendations, included within this article.

Risk factors associated with COVID-19 severity among patients on maintenance haemodialysis: a retrospective multicentre cross-sectional study in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the applicability of risk factors for severe COVID-19 defined in the general population for patients on haemodialysis. SETTING: A retrospective cross-sectional study performed across thirty four haemodialysis units in midlands of the UK. PARTICIPANTS: All 274 patients on maintenance haemodialysis who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 on PCR testing between March and August 2020, in participating haemodialysis centres. EXPOSURE: The utility of obesity, diabetes status, ethnicity, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and socioeconomic deprivation scores were investigated as risk factors for severe COVID-19. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Severe COVID-19, defined as requiring supplemental oxygen or respiratory support, or a C reactive protein of ≥75 mg/dL (RECOVERY trial definitions), and its association with obesity, diabetes status, ethnicity, CCI, and socioeconomic deprivation. RESULTS: 63.5% (174/274 patients) developed severe disease. Socioeconomic deprivation associated with severity, being most pronounced between the most and least deprived quartiles (OR 2.81, 95% CI 1.22 to 6.47, p=0.015), after adjusting for age, sex and ethnicity. There was no association between obesity, diabetes status, ethnicity or CCI with COVID-19 severity. We found no evidence of temporal evolution of cases (p=0.209) or clustering that would impact our findings. CONCLUSION: The incidence of severe COVID-19 is high among patients on haemodialysis; this cohort should be considered high risk. There was strong evidence of an association between socioeconomic deprivation and COVID-19 severity. Other risk factors that apply to the general population may not apply to this cohort.

Comparison of Outcomes of In-Centre Haemodialysis Patients between the 1st and 2nd COVID-19 Outbreak in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland: A UK Renal Registry Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: This retrospective cohort study compares in-centre haemodialysis (ICHD) patients' outcomes between the 1st and 2nd waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. METHODS: All people aged ≥18 years receiving ICHD at 31 December 2019, who were still alive and not in receipt of a kidney transplant at 1 March and who had a positive polymerase chain reaction test for SARS-CoV-2 between 1 March 2020 and 31 January 2021, were included. The COVID-19 infections were split into two "waves": wave 1 from March to August 2020 and wave 2 from September 2020 to January 2021. Cumulative incidence of COVID-19, multivariable Cox models for risk of positivity, median, and 95% credible interval of reproduction number in dialysis units were calculated separately for wave 1 and wave 2. Survival and hazard ratios for mortality were described with age- and sex-adjusted Kaplan-Meier plots and multivariable Cox proportional models. RESULTS: 4,408 ICHD patients had COVID-19 during the study period. Unadjusted survival at 28 days was similar in both waves (wave 1 75.6% [95% confidence interval [CI]: 73.7-77.5], wave 2 76.3% [95% CI 74.3-78.2]), but death occurred more rapidly after detected infection in wave 1. Long vintage treatment and not being on the transplant waiting list were associated with higher mortality in both waves. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of death of patients on ICHD treatment with COVID-19 remained unchanged between the first and second outbreaks. This highlights that this vulnerable patient group needs to be prioritized for interventions to prevent severe COVID-19, including vaccination, and the implementation of measures to reduce the risk of transmission alone is not sufficient.

Centre variation in mortality following post-hospitalization acute kidney injury: analysis of a large national cohort.

BACKGROUND: Routine monitoring of outcomes for patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) is important to drive ongoing quality improvement in patient care. In this study we describe the development of a case mix-adjusted 30-day mortality indicator for patients with post-hospitalization AKI (PH-AKI) across England to facilitate identification of any unwarranted centre variation in outcomes. METHODS: We utilized a routinely collected national dataset of biochemically detected AKI cases linked with national hospitals administrative and mortality data. A total of 250 504 PH-AKI episodes were studied across 103 National Health Service hospital trusts between January 2017 and December 2018. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for each trust using logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, primary diagnosis, comorbidity score, AKI severity, month of AKI and admission method. RESULTS: The mean 30-day mortality rate was high, at 28.6%. SMRs for 23/103 trusts were classed as outliers, 12 above and 11 below the 95% confidence limits. Patients with PH-AKI had mortality rates >5 times higher than the overall hospitalized population in 90/136 diagnosis groups and >10 times higher in 60/136 groups. Presentation at trusts with a co-located specialist nephrology service was associated with a lower mortality risk, as was South Asian or Black ethnicity. Deprivation, however, was associated with higher mortality. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest multicentre analysis of mortality for patients with biochemically ascertained PH-AKI to date, demonstrating once again the considerable risk associated with developing even mild elevations in serum creatinine. Mortality rates varied considerably across centres and those identified as outliers will now need to carefully interrogate local care pathways to understand and address the reasons for this, with national policy required to tackle the identified health disparities.

Outcomes of patients with COVID-19 on kidney replacement therapy: a comparison among modalities in England.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease is a recognized risk factor of poor outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used the UK Renal Registry database of people on kidney replacement therapy (KRT) at the end of 2019 in England and who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between 1 March 2020 and 31 August 2020 to analyse the incidence and outcomes of COVID-19 among different KRT modalities. Comparisons with 2015-2019 mortality data were used to estimate excess deaths. RESULTS: A total of 2783 individuals on KRT tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Patients from more-deprived areas {most deprived versus least deprived hazard ratio [HR] 1.20 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.39]} and those with diabetes compared with those without [HR 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64)] were more likely to test positive. Approximately 25% of in-centre haemodialysis and transplanted patients died within 28 days of testing positive compared with 36% of those on home therapies. Mortality was higher in those ≥80 years of age compared with those 60-79 years [odds ratio (OR) 1.71 (95% CI 1.34-2.19)] and much lower in those listed for transplantation compared with those not listed [OR 0.56 (95% CI 0.40-0.80)]. Overall, excess mortality in 2020 for people on KRT was 36% higher than the 2015-2019 average. Excess deaths peaked in April 2020 at the height of the pandemic and were characterized by wide ethnic and regional disparities. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of COVID-19 on the English KRT population highlights their extreme vulnerability and emphasizes the need to protect and prioritize this group for vaccination. COVID-19 has widened underlying inequalities in people with kidney disease, making interventions that address health inequalities a priority.

Acute kidney injury identification for pharmacoepidemiologic studies: Use of laboratory electronic acute kidney injury alerts versus electronic health records in Hospital Episode Statistics.

PURPOSE: A laboratory-based acute kidney injury (AKI) electronic-alert (e-alert) system, with e-alerts sent to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) and collated in a master patient index (MPI), has recently been implemented in England. The aim of this study was to determine the degree of correspondence between the UKRR-MPI and AKI International Classification Disease-10 (ICD-10) N17 coding in Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) and whether hospital N17 coding correlated with 30-day mortality and emergency re-admission after AKI. METHODS: AKI e-alerts in people aged ≥18 years, collated in the UKRR-MPI during 2017, were linked to HES data to identify a hospitalised AKI population. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyse associations between absence/presence of N17 codes and clinicodemographic features. Correlation of the percentage coded with N17 and 30-day mortality and emergency re-admission after AKI were calculated at hospital level. RESULTS: In 2017, there were 301 540 adult episodes of hospitalised AKI in England. AKI severity was positively associated with coding in HES, with a high degree of inter-hospital variability-AKI stage 1 mean of 48.2% [SD 14.0], versus AKI stage 3 mean of 83.3% [SD 7.3]. N17 coding in HES depended on demographic features, especially age (18-29 years vs. ≥85 years OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.21-0.23), as well as sex and ethnicity. There was no evidence of association between the proportion of episodes coded for AKI with short-term AKI outcomes. CONCLUSION: Coding of AKI in HES is influenced by many factors that result in an underestimation of AKI. Using e-alerts to triangulate the true incidence of AKI could provide a better understanding of the factors that affect hospital coding, potentially leading to improved coding, patient care and pharmacoepidemiologic research.

The association of blood pressure variability with adverse outcomes in a primary care chronic kidney disease cohort.

BACKGROUND: Hypertension is common in individuals with chronic kidney disease and both conditions are associated with adverse outcomes including cardiovascular morbidity. Therefore, it is clinically important to identify methods of risk prediction in individuals with chronic kidney disease. Blood pressure variability has recently emerged as a predictor of cardiovascular events and mortality in the general population, with growing evidence indicating that it may play a similar role in individuals with chronic kidney disease. However, there have been no large studies assessing blood pressure variability in individuals with chronic kidney disease in primary care, where the majority of these patients are managed. METHOD: Using a retrospective observational study design, we analyzed routinely collected blood pressure readings from 16 999 individuals in The Leicester and County Chronic Kidney Disease cohort. Standard deviation, coefficient of variation and average real variability of SBP were used to calculate blood pressure variability. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.0 (IQR 3.3--5.0) years, 2053 (12.1%) patients had cardiovascular events, death occurred in 5021 (29.6%) individuals and 156 (0.9%) individuals had endstage kidney disease events. In adjusted models, standard deviation and coefficient of variation were associated with cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality and endstage kidney disease. Average real variability was associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular events, but not endstage kidney disease. CONCLUSION: Blood pressure variability may be an accessible, routinely collected, noninvasive measure for stratifying the risk of adverse events in individuals with chronic kidney disease in a primary care setting.

Comorbidities and outcomes in South Asian individuals with chronic kidney disease: an observational primary care cohort.

BACKGROUND: South Asian (SA) individuals are more likely to develop end-stage renal disease (ESRD), but how chronic kidney disease (CKD) differs in relation to demographics, comorbidities and outcomes has not been studied. We aimed to study differences in SA individuals with CKD compared with White individuals. METHODS: This was an observational CKD cohort comparing SA with White individuals. Inclusion criteria were ≥18 years of age and two or more Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFRs <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 >3 months apart. Individuals with ESRD at baseline were excluded. Baseline characteristics, including eGFR formulae [CKD-EPI and CKD-EPI-Pakistan (CKD-EPI-PK)], were compared. Analysis using competing risk regression for cardiovascular (CV) and ESRD events and Cox proportional hazard model for mortality was performed. RESULTS: From an adult population of 277 248 individuals, 17 248 individuals had CKD, of whom 1990 (11.5%) were of SA ethnicity. Age-adjusted prevalence of CKD was similar between ethnicities. SA individuals were more likely to be male, younger and socioeconomically deprived, and to have diabetes mellitus, CV disease and advanced CKD. Mean CKD-EPI-PK eGFR was 6.5 mL/min/1.73 m2 lower (41.1 versus 47.6, 95% confidence interval for difference 6.47-6.56) than for CKD-EPI. During 5 years of follow-up, 5109 (29.6%) individuals died, 2072 (12.0%) had a CV and 156 (0.90%) an ESRD event. Risk for SA individuals was higher for ESRD, similar to CV events and lower for mortality. Each 1 mL/min/1.73 m2 decrease in CKD-EPI-PK was associated with a 13.1% increased ESRD risk (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 0.869, 95% confidence interval 0.841-0.898). CONCLUSIONS: SA individuals with CKD were younger and had more advanced disease than White individuals. Risk of ESRD was higher and CKD-EPI-PK was associated with ESRD risk in SA individuals. Specific CKD interventions, including the use of CKD-EPI-PK, should be considered in SA populations.

Correction: The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for prediction of end stage renal disease in UK primary care: An external validation and clinical impact projection cohort study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002955.].

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for prediction of end stage renal disease in UK primary care: An external validation and clinical impact projection cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) uses the 4 variables of age, sex, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) to predict the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD), i.e., the need for dialysis or a kidney transplant, within 2 and 5 years. Currently, national guideline writers in the UK and other countries are evaluating the role of the KFRE in renal referrals from primary care to secondary care, but the KFRE has had limited external validation in primary care. The study's objectives were therefore to externally validate the KFRE's prediction of ESRD events in primary care, perform model recalibration if necessary, and assess its projected impact on referral rates to secondary care renal services. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Individuals with 2 or more Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFR values < 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 more than 90 days apart and a urine ACR or protein-to-creatinine ratio measurement between 1 December 2004 and 1 November 2016 were included in the cohort. The cohort included 35,539 (5.6%) individuals (57.5% female, mean age 75.9 years, median CKD-EPI eGFR 51 ml/min/1.73 m2, median ACR 3.2 mg/mmol) from a total adult practice population of 630,504. Overall, 176 (0.50%) and 429 (1.21%) ESRD events occurred within 2 and 5 years, respectively. Median length of follow-up was 4.7 years (IQR 2.8 to 6.6). Model discrimination was excellent for both 2-year (C-statistic 0.932, 95% CI 0.909 to 0.954) and 5-year (C-statistic 0.924, 95% 0.909 to 0.938) ESRD prediction. The KFRE overpredicted risk in lower (<20%) risk groups. Reducing the model's baseline risk improved calibration for both 2- and 5-year risk for lower risk groups, but led to some underprediction of risk in higher risk groups. Compared to current criteria, using referral criteria based on a KFRE-calculated 5-year ESRD risk of ≥5% and/or an ACR of ≥70 mg/mmol reduced the number of individuals eligible for referral who did not develop ESRD, increased the likelihood of referral eligibility in those who did develop ESRD, and referred the latter at a younger age and with a higher eGFR. The main limitation of the current study is that the cohort is from one region of the UK and therefore may not be representative of primary care CKD care in other countries. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, the recalibrated KFRE accurately predicted the risk of ESRD at 2 and 5 years in primary care. Its introduction into primary care for referrals to secondary care renal services may lead to a reduction in unnecessary referrals, and earlier referrals in those who go on to develop ESRD. However, further validation studies in more diverse cohorts of the clinical impact projections and suggested referral criteria are required before the latter can be clinically implemented.

End-of-life care for people with chronic kidney disease: cause of death, place of death and hospital costs.

BACKGROUND: End-of-life care for people with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been identified as an area of great clinical need internationally. We estimate causes and place of death and cost of hospital care for people with CKD in England in the final 3 years of life. METHODS: Hospital Episode Statistics data were linked to Office for National Statistics mortality data to identify all patients in England aged ≥18 years who died 1 April 2006-31 March 2010, and had a record of hospital care after 1 April 2003 (the study group). The underlying cause and place of death were examined in Office for National Statistics data, for patients without and with CKD (identified by International Classification of Diseases version 10 codes N18, I12 and I13). Costs of hospital admissions and outpatient attendances were estimated using National Health Service Reference Cost data. Associations between CKD and hospital costs, and between place of death and hospital costs in those with CKD, were examined using multivariate regressions. RESULTS: There were 1 602 105 people in the study group. Of these, 13.2% were recorded as having CKD. The proportion of deaths at home was 10.7% in people with CKD and 17.2% in the age- and gender-matched non-CKD group. Regression analysis suggests that CKD was associated with an increase in hospital costs of £3380 in the last 12 months of life, holding constant place of death, comorbidities and other variables. For the CKD group, home death was associated with a reduction in hospital costs of £2811 in the 12 months before death. The most commonly recorded cause of death in people with CKD was heart disease. CKD was not mentioned on the death certificate in two-thirds of deaths in people with the condition. CONCLUSIONS: People with CKD are less likely to die at home than those without CKD. The condition is associated with increased hospital costs at the end of life regardless of place of death. Home death in CKD is associated with a substantial reduction in hospital costs at the end of life.

Rapid dissemination of human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 during primary infection in transplant recipients.

BACKGROUND: Human T-lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) infects an estimated 10 million persons globally with transmission resulting in lifelong infection. Disease, linked to high proviral load, occurs in a minority. In established infection HTLV-1 replicates through infectious spread and clonal expansion of infected lymphocytes. Little is known about acute HTLV-1 infection. The kinetics of early HTLV-1 infection, following transplantation-acquired infection in three recipients from one HTLV-1 infected donor, is reported. The recipients were treated with two HTLV-1 enzyme inhibitors 3 weeks post exposure following the detection of HTLV-1 provirus at low level in each recipient. HTLV-1 infection was serially monitored by serology, quantification of proviral load and HTLV-1 2LTR DNA circles and by HTLV-1 unique integration site analysis. RESULTS: HTLV-1 antibodies were first detected 16-39 days post-transplantation. HTLV-1 provirus was detected by PCR on day 16-23 and increased by 2-3 log by day 38-45 with a peak proviral doubling time of 1.4 days, after which steady state was reached. The rapid proviral load expansion was associated with high frequency of HTLV-1 2LTR DNA circles. The number of HTLV-1 unique integration sites was high compared with established HTLV-1 infection. Clonal expansion of infected cells was detected as early as day 37 with high initial oligoclonality index, consistent with early mitotic proliferation. CONCLUSIONS: In recipients infected through organ transplantation HTLV-1 disseminated rapidly despite early anti-HTLV-1 treatment. Proviral load set point was reached within 6 weeks. Seroconversion was not delayed. Unique integration site analysis and HTLV-1 2LTR DNA circles indicated early clonal expansion and high rate of infectious spread.