Comparative analysis of multimodal biomarkers for amyloid-beta positivity detection in Alzheimer's disease cohorts.

Introduction: Efforts to develop cost-effective approaches for detecting amyloid pathology in Alzheimer's disease (AD) have gained significant momentum with a focus on biomarker classification. Recent research has explored non-invasive and readily accessible biomarkers, including magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers and some AD risk factors. Methods: In this comprehensive study, we leveraged a diverse dataset, encompassing participants with varying cognitive statuses from multiple sources, including cohorts from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and our in-house Dementia Disease Initiation (DDI) cohort. As brain amyloid plaques have been proposed as sufficient for AD diagnosis, our primary aim was to assess the effectiveness of multimodal biomarkers in identifying amyloid plaques, using deep machine learning methodologies. Results: Our findings underscore the robustness of the utilized methods in detecting amyloid beta positivity across multiple cohorts. Additionally, we investigated the potential of demographic data to enhance MRI-based amyloid detection. Notably, the inclusion of demographic risk factors significantly improved our models' ability to detect amyloid-beta positivity, particularly in early-stage cases, exemplified by an average area under the ROC curve of 0.836 in the unimpaired DDI cohort. Discussion: These promising, non-invasive, and cost-effective predictors of MRI biomarkers and demographic variables hold the potential for further refinement through considerations like APOE genotype and plasma markers.

Robust parametric modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression.

Quantitative characterization of disease progression using longitudinal data can provide long-term predictions for the pathological stages of individuals. This work studies the robust modeling of Alzheimer's disease progression using parametric methods. The proposed method linearly maps the individual's age to a disease progression score (DPS) and jointly fits constrained generalized logistic functions to the longitudinal dynamics of biomarkers as functions of the DPS using M-estimation. Robustness of the estimates is quantified using bootstrapping via Monte Carlo resampling, and the estimated inflection points of the fitted functions are used to temporally order the modeled biomarkers in the disease course. Kernel density estimation is applied to the obtained DPSs for clinical status classification using a Bayesian classifier. Different M-estimators and logistic functions, including a novel type proposed in this study, called modified Stannard, are evaluated on the data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) for robust modeling of volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) measurements, as well as cognitive tests. The results show that the modified Stannard function fitted using the logistic loss achieves the best modeling performance with an average normalized mean absolute error (NMAE) of 0.991 across all biomarkers and bootstraps. Applied to the ADNI test set, this model achieves a multiclass area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.934 in clinical status classification. The obtained results for the proposed model outperform almost all state-of-the-art results in predicting biomarker values and classifying clinical status. Finally, the experiments show that the proposed model, trained using abundant ADNI data, generalizes well to data from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) with an average NMAE of 1.182 and a multiclass AUC of 0.929.

Training recurrent neural networks robust to incomplete data: Application to Alzheimer's disease progression modeling.

Disease progression modeling (DPM) using longitudinal data is a challenging machine learning task. Existing DPM algorithms neglect temporal dependencies among measurements, make parametric assumptions about biomarker trajectories, do not model multiple biomarkers jointly, and need an alignment of subjects' trajectories. In this paper, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are utilized to address these issues. However, in many cases, longitudinal cohorts contain incomplete data, which hinders the application of standard RNNs and requires a pre-processing step such as imputation of the missing values. Instead, we propose a generalized training rule for the most widely used RNN architecture, long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, that can handle both missing predictor and target values. The proposed LSTM algorithm is applied to model the progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) using six volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) biomarkers, i.e., volumes of ventricles, hippocampus, whole brain, fusiform, middle temporal gyrus, and entorhinal cortex, and it is compared to standard LSTM networks with data imputation and a parametric, regression-based DPM method. The results show that the proposed algorithm achieves a significantly lower mean absolute error (MAE) than the alternatives with p < 0.05 using Wilcoxon signed rank test in predicting values of almost all of the MRI biomarkers. Moreover, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) classifier applied to the predicted biomarker values produces a significantly larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.90 vs. at most 0.84 with p < 0.001 using McNemar's test for clinical diagnosis of AD. Inspection of MAE curves as a function of the amount of missing data reveals that the proposed LSTM algorithm achieves the best performance up until more than 74% missing values. Finally, it is illustrated how the method can successfully be applied to data with varying time intervals. This paper shows that built-in handling of missing values in training an LSTM network benefits the application of RNNs in neurodegenerative disease progression modeling in longitudinal cohorts.