Change in glomerular filtration rate over time in the Oxford Renal Cohort Study: observational study.

BACKGROUND: Decline in kidney function can result in adverse health outcomes. The Oxford Renal Cohort Study has detailed baseline assessments from 884 participants ≥60 years of age. AIM: To determine the proportion of participants with a decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), identify determinants of decline, and determine proportions with chronic kidney disease (CKD) remission. DESIGN AND SETTING: Observational cohort study in UK primary care. METHOD: Data were used from baseline and annual follow-up assessments to monitor change in kidney function. Rapid eGFR decline was defined as eGFR decrease >5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year, improvement as eGFR increase >5 ml/min/1.73 m2/year, and remission in those with CKD at baseline and eGFR >60 ml/min/1.73 m2 during follow-up. Cox proportional hazard models were used to identify factors associated with eGFR decline. RESULTS: There was a net decline in eGFR in the 884 participants over 5 years of follow-up. In 686 participants with >2 eGFR tests with a median follow-up of 2.1 years, 164 (24%) evidenced rapid GFR decline, 185 (27%) experienced eGFR improvement, and 82 of 394 (21%) meeting CKD stage 1-4 at baseline experienced remission. In the multivariable analysis, smoking status, higher systolic blood pressure, and being known to have CKD at cohort entry were associated with rapid GFR decline. Those with CKD stage 3 at baseline were less likely to exhibit GFR decline compared with normal kidney function. CONCLUSION: This study established that 24% of people evidenced rapid GFR decline whereas 21% evidenced remission of CKD. People at risk of rapid GFR decline may benefit from closer monitoring and appropriate treatment to minimise risks of adverse outcomes, although only a small proportion meet the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence criteria for referral to secondary care.

Prevalence of chronic kidney disease in the community using data from OxRen: a UK population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a largely asymptomatic condition of diminished renal function, which may not be detected until advanced stages without screening. AIM: To establish undiagnosed and overall CKD prevalence using a cross-sectional analysis. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal cohort study in UK primary care. METHOD: Participants aged ≥60 years were invited to attend CKD screening visits to determine whether they had reduced renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <60 ml/min/1.73 m2 or albumin:creatinine ratio ≥3 mg/mmol). Those with existing CKD, low eGFR, evidence of albuminuria, or two positive screening tests attended a baseline assessment (CKD cohort). RESULTS: A total of 3207 participants were recruited and 861 attended the baseline assessment. The CKD cohort consisted of 327 people with existing CKD, 257 people with CKD diagnosed through screening (CKD prevalence of 18.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 16.9 to 19.6), and 277 with borderline/transient decreased renal function. In the CKD cohort, 54.4% were female, mean standard deviation (SD) age was 74.0 (SD 6.9) years, and mean eGFR was 58.0 (SD 18.4) ml/min/1.73 m2. Of the 584 with confirmed CKD, 44.0% were diagnosed through screening. Over half of the CKD cohort (51.9%, 447/861) fell into CKD stages 3-5 at their baseline assessment, giving an overall prevalence of CKD stages 3-5 of 13.9% (95% CI = 12.8 to 15.1). More people had reduced eGFR using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation than with CKD Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation in the 60-75-year age group and more had reduced eGFR using CKD-EPI in the ≥80-year age group. CONCLUSION: This study found that around 44.0% of people living with CKD are undiagnosed without screening, and prevalence of CKD stages 1-5 was 18.2% in participants aged >60 years. Follow-up will provide data on annual incidence, rate of CKD progression, determinants of rapid progression, and predictors of cardiovascular events.