Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource.

Resource selection by elk in an agro-forested landscape of northwestern Nebraska.

In recent years, elk have begun recolonizing areas east of the Rocky Mountains that are largely agro-forested ecosystems composed of privately owned land where management of elk is an increasing concern due to crop and forage depredation and interspecific disease transmission. We used a Geographic Information System, elk use locations (n = 5013), random locations (n = 25,065), discrete-choice models, and information-theoretic methods to test hypotheses about elk resource selection in an agro-forested landscape located in the Pine Ridge region of northwestern Nebraska, USA. Our objectives were to determine landscape characteristics selected by female elk and identify publicly owned land within the Pine Ridge for potential redistribution of elk. We found distance to edge of cover influenced selection of resources by female elk most and that in areas with light hunting pressure, such as ours, this selection was not driven by an avoidance of roads. Female elk selected resources positioned near ponderosa pine cover types during all seasons, exhibited a slight avoidance of roads during spring and fall, selected areas with increased slope during winter and spring, and selected north- and east-facing aspects over flat areas and areas with south-facing slopes during winter months. We used our models to identified a potential elk redistribution area that had a higher proportion of landcover with characteristics selected by elk in our study area than the current herd areas and more landcover that was publicly owned. With appropriate management plans, we believe elk within the Potential Elk Redistribution Area would predominantly occupy publicly owned land, which would help minimize crop and forage damage on privately owned lands.