Conditional uncertainty: Misinterpretations of "significant" p values.

Misapplication of p values can lead to very misleading conclusions. The frequent insignificance of a "significant" p value 1 provides examples illustrating situations where p values are misused in interpretation and describes alternatives to p values to consider. The concern about p values, and their potential shortcomings and misinterpretations, has been widely discussed and has received a lot of debate from the statistical community. While we agree with much of the content presented in the article, the issue fundamentally represents a misinterpretation of conditional probability, misapplication of measures regarding diagnostic accuracy, and consequently violations of assumptions inherent in experimental design and the validity of many approaches to statistical analysis and inference. One way this can be remedied is through team science, and collaboration between clinical and biostatistical scientists in research.

Umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cells for COVID-19 acute respiratory distress syndrome: A double-blind, phase 1/2a, randomized controlled trial.

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) in COVID-19 is associated with high mortality. Mesenchymal stem cells are known to exert immunomodulatory and anti-inflammatory effects and could yield beneficial effects in COVID-19 ARDS. The objective of this study was to determine safety and explore efficacy of umbilical cord mesenchymal stem cell (UC-MSC) infusions in subjects with COVID-19 ARDS. A double-blind, phase 1/2a, randomized, controlled trial was performed. Randomization and stratification by ARDS severity was used to foster balance among groups. All subjects were analyzed under intention to treat design. Twenty-four subjects were randomized 1:1 to either UC-MSC treatment (n = 12) or the control group (n = 12). Subjects in the UC-MSC treatment group received two intravenous infusions (at day 0 and 3) of 100 ± 20 × 106 UC-MSCs; controls received two infusions of vehicle solution. Both groups received best standard of care. Primary endpoint was safety (adverse events [AEs]) within 6 hours; cardiac arrest or death within 24 hours postinfusion). Secondary endpoints included patient survival at 31 days after the first infusion and time to recovery. No difference was observed between groups in infusion-associated AEs. No serious adverse events (SAEs) were observed related to UC-MSC infusions. UC-MSC infusions in COVID-19 ARDS were found to be safe. Inflammatory cytokines were significantly decreased in UC-MSC-treated subjects at day 6. Treatment was associated with significantly improved patient survival (91% vs 42%, P = .015), SAE-free survival (P = .008), and time to recovery (P = .03). UC-MSC infusions are safe and could be beneficial in treating subjects with COVID-19 ARDS.

Baseline Assessment of Circulating MicroRNAs Near Diagnosis of Type 1 Diabetes Predicts Future Stimulated Insulin Secretion.

Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease resulting in severely impaired insulin secretion. We investigated whether circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are associated with residual insulin secretion at diagnosis and predict the severity of its future decline. We studied 53 newly diagnosed subjects enrolled in placebo groups of TrialNet clinical trials. We measured serum levels of 2,083 miRNAs, using RNA sequencing technology, in fasting samples from the baseline visit (<100 days from diagnosis), during which residual insulin secretion was measured with a mixed meal tolerance test (MMTT). Area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide and peak C-peptide were stratified by quartiles of expression of 31 miRNAs. After adjustment for baseline C-peptide, age, BMI, and sex, baseline levels of miR-3187-3p, miR-4302, and the miRNA combination of miR-3187-3p/miR-103a-3p predicted differences in MMTT C-peptide AUC/peak levels at the 12-month visit; the combination miR-3187-3p/miR-4723-5p predicted proportions of subjects above/below the 200 pmol/L clinical trial eligibility threshold at the 12-month visit. Thus, miRNA assessment at baseline identifies associations with C-peptide and stratifies subjects for future severity of C-peptide loss after 1 year. We suggest that miRNAs may be useful in predicting future C-peptide decline for improved subject stratification in clinical trials.

Association of serum microRNAs with islet autoimmunity, disease progression and metabolic impairment in relatives at risk of type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are key regulators of gene expression and novel biomarkers for many diseases. We investigated the hypothesis that serum levels of some miRNAs would be associated with islet autoimmunity and/or progression to type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We measured levels of 93 miRNAs most commonly detected in serum. This retrospective cohort study included 150 autoantibody-positive and 150 autoantibody-negative family-matched siblings enrolled in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study. This was a young cohort (mean age = 11 years), and most autoantibody-positive relatives were at high risk because they had multiple autoantibodies, with 39/150 (26%, progressors) developing type 1 diabetes within an average 8.7 months of follow-up. We analysed miRNA levels in relation to autoantibody status, future development of diabetes and OGTT C-peptide and glucose indices of disease progression. RESULTS: Fifteen miRNAs were differentially expressed when comparing autoantibody-positive/negative siblings (range -2.5 to 1.3-fold). But receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated low specificity and sensitivity. Seven additional miRNAs were differentially expressed among autoantibody-positive relatives according to disease progression; ROC returned significant AUC values and identified miRNA cut-off levels associated with an increased risk of disease in both cross-sectional and survival analyses. Levels of several miRNAs showed significant correlations (r values range 0.22-0.55) with OGTT outcomes. miR-21-3p, miR-29a-3p and miR-424-5p had the most robust associations. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Serum levels of selected miRNAs are associated with disease progression and confer additional risk of the development of type 1 diabetes in young autoantibody-positive relatives. Further studies, including longitudinal assessments, are warranted to further define miRNA biomarkers for prediction of disease risk and progression.