GEnZ explorer: a tool for visualizing agroclimate to inform research and regulatory risk assessment.

Confined field trials (CFT) of genetically engineered (GE) crops are used to generate data to inform environmental risk assessments (ERA). ERAs are required by regulatory authorities before novel GE crops can be released for cultivation. The transportability of CFT data to inform risk assessment in countries other than those where the CFT was conducted has been discussed previously in an analysis showing that the primary difference between CFT locations potentially impacting trial outcomes is the physical environment, particularly the agroclimate. This means that data from trials carried out in similar agroclimates could be considered relevant and sufficient to satisfy regulatory requirements for CFT data, irrespective of the country where the CFTs are conducted. This paper describes the development of an open-source tool to assist in determining the transportability of CFT data. This tool provides agroclimate together with overall crop production information to assist regulators and applicants in making informed choices on whether data from previous CFTs can inform an environmental risk assessment in a new country, as well as help developers determine optimal locations for planning future CFTs. The GEnZ Explorer is a freely available, thoroughly documented, and open-source tool that allows users to identify the agroclimate zones that are relevant for the production of 21 major crops and crop categories or to determine the agroclimatic zone at a specific location. This tool will help provide additional scientific justification for CFT data transportability, along with spatial visualization, to help ensure regulatory transparency.

A kingdom in decline: Holocene range contraction of the lion (Panthera leo) modelled with global environmental stratification.

AIM: We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. LOCATION: The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. METHODS: We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. RESULTS: We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara  6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. MAIN CONCLUSIONS: This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene.

Understanding local community's values, worldviews and perceptions in the Galloway and Southern Ayrshire Biosphere Reserve, Scotland.

Biosphere reserves have been studied around the world, but methods to elicit community's values, worldviews and perceptions are missing. A greater understanding of these can help avoid tension and improve successful management. This paper used a mixed-methods survey to elicit local community's environmental values, ecological world views and perceptions of the Galloway and Southern Ayrshire Biosphere Reserve (GSABR). Over three weeks, forty participants from three communities of the GSABR responded to a semi-structured mixed-methods survey. The survey revealed that residents of the GSABR greatly value wildlife and beauty of nature, and that the majority of the respondents showed concern for the environment from an ecocentric worldview. Results also revealed that the most influential tested socio-demographic characteristic affecting people's relationship to their environment is their professional affiliation. Tourism and recreation were seen as major benefits of the recent biosphere designation. Results did highlight contrasting benefits from the designation for different stakeholder groups, which could potentially lead to tensions and should be considered in the reserve management. Given the community's supportive world views and perceptions, greater participation in the biosphere's management in likely to be welcomed and should be used to avoid or mediate any conflicts. The mixed-method survey developed for this study, proved successful in eliciting these themes in the GSABR. We recommend other biosphere reserves replicate this research, to gain better understanding of local communities and increase their support and participation in reserve management.

A spatial fuzzy logic approach to urban multi-hazard impact assessment in Concepción, Chile.

Even though most cities are exposed to more than one hazard, local planners and decision-makers still have a limited understanding of the exposure and sensitivity to and the spatial distribution of hazards. We examine the impact of multiple hazards in the Concepción Metropolitan Area (CMA), Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy logic modelling was developed to explore the impact of weather-related hazards, including coastal flooding, fluvial flooding, water scarcity, heat stress, and wildfire. 32 indicators were standardised and then aggregated through a stepwise approach into a multi-hazard impact index. We find that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of impact between 1992 and 2002, due to a larger increase in the exposure rather than the modest decrease in sensitivity. Municipal sensitivity was driven mostly by changes in the population's age structure. Wildfires and water scarcity appeared to have the largest impact on all municipalities. Fuzzy modelling offered high flexibility in the standardisation and aggregation of indicators with diverse characteristics, while also providing a means to explore how the interaction of numerous indicators influenced the index. The resulting maps can help identify indicators, components, and hazards or combinations of hazards that most influence the impact on municipalities. The results can be used to improve and promote dialogue among policy-makers and stakeholders regarding prioritisation of resources for urban development in ways that can also reduce exposure and sensitivity and lower vulnerability to climate change. The methods presented can be adapted to other cities.

Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.