Regulatory Issues of Platform Trials: Learnings from EU-PEARL.

Although platform trials have many benefits, the complexity of these designs may result not only in increased methodological but also regulatory and ethical challenges. These aspects were addressed as part of the IMI project EU Patient-Centric Clinical Trial Platforms (EU-PEARL). We reviewed the available guidelines on platform trials in the European Union and the United States. This is supported and complemented by feedback received from regulatory interactions with the European Medicines Agency and the US Food and Drug Administration. Throughout the project we collected the needs of all relevant stakeholders including ethics committees, regulators, and health technology assessment bodies through active dialog and dedicated stakeholder workshops. Furthermore, we focused on methodological aspects and where applicable identified the corresponding guidance. Learnings from the guideline review, regulatory interactions, and workshops are provided. Based on these, a master protocol template was developed. Issues that still need harmonization or clarification in guidelines or where further methodological research is needed are also presented. These include questions around clinical trial submissions in Europe, the need for multiplicity control across the whole master protocol, the use of non-concurrent controls, and the impact of different randomization schemes. Master protocols are an efficient and patient-centered clinical trial design that can expedite drug development. However, they can also introduce additional operational and regulatory complexities. It is important to understand the different requirements of stakeholders upfront and address them in the trial. While relevant guidance is increasing, early dialog with relevant stakeholders can help to further support such designs.

Simple blood tests to diagnose compensated advanced chronic liver disease and stratify the risk of clinically significant portal hypertension.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) identifies patients at risk for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH), and thus, for liver-related complications. The limited availability of liver stiffness measurements (LSM) impedes the identification of patients at risk for cACLD/CSPH outside of specialized clinics. We aimed to develop a blood-based algorithm to identify cACLD by fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and CSPH by von Willebrand factor/platelet count ratio (VITRO). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Patients with (suspected) compensated chronic liver disease undergoing FIB-4+LSM were included in the LSM/FIB-4 cohorts from Vienna and Salzburg. The HVPG/VITRO cohorts included patients undergoing HVPG-measurement + VITRO from Vienna and Bern.LSM/FIB-4-derivation-cohort: We included 6143 patients, of whom 211 (3.4%) developed hepatic decompensation. In all, 1724 (28.1%) had LSM ≥ 10 kPa, which corresponded to FIB-4 ≥ 1.75. Importantly, both LSM (AUROC:0.897 [95% CI:0.865-0.929]) and FIB-4 (AUROC:0.914 [95% CI:0.885-0.944]) were similarly accurate in predicting hepatic decompensation within 3 years. FIB-4 ≥ 1.75 identified patients at risk for first hepatic decompensation (5 y-cumulative incidence:7.6%), while in those <1.75, the risk was negligible (0.3%).HVPG/VITRO-derivation cohort: 247 patients of whom 202 had cACLD/FIB-4 ≥ 1.75 were included. VITRO exhibited an excellent diagnostic performance for CSPH (AUROC:0.889 [95% CI:0.844-0.934]), similar to LSM (AUROC:0.856 [95% CI:0.801-0.910], p = 0.351) and the ANTICIPATE model (AUROC:0.910 [95% CI:0.869-0.952], p = 0.498). VITRO < 1.0/ ≥ 2.5 ruled-out (sensitivity:100.0%)/ruled-in (specificity:92.4%) CSPH. The diagnostic performance was comparable to the Baveno-VII criteria.LSM/FIB-4-derivation cohort findings were externally validated in n = 1560 patients, while HVPG/VITRO-derivation-cohort findings were internally (n = 133) and externally (n = 55) validated. CONCLUSIONS: Simple, broadly available laboratory tests (FIB-4/VITRO) facilitate cACLD detection and CSPH risk stratification in patients with (suspected) liver disease. This blood-based approach is applicable outside of specialized clinics and may promote early intervention.

A meta-analysis and real-world cohort study on the sex-related differences in efficacy and safety of immunotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

Background & Aims: Sex-related differences in the immune pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), particularly related to oestrogen-dependent secretion of pro-tumourigenic cytokines, are well-known. Whether sex influences the efficacy and safety of immunotherapy is not known. Methods: We performed a restricted maximum likelihood random effects meta-analysis of five phase III trials that evaluated immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) in advanced HCC and reported overall survival (OS) hazard ratios (HRs) stratified by sex to evaluate sex-related differences in OS. In a real-world cohort of 840 patients with HCC from 22 centres included between 2018 and 2023, we directly compared the efficacy and safety of atezolizumab + bevacizumab (A+B) between sexes. Radiological response was reported according to RECIST v1.1. Uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed for OS and progression-free survival (PFS). Results: In the meta-analysis, immunotherapy was associated with a significant OS benefit only in male (pooled HR 0.79; 95% CI 0.73-0.86) but not in female (pooled HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.70-1.03) patients with HCC. When directly comparing model estimates, no differences in the treatment effect between sexes were observed. Among 840 patients, 677 (81%) were male (mean age 66 ± 11 years), and 163 (19%) were female (mean age 67 ± 12 years). Type and severity of adverse events were similar between the two groups. OS and PFS were comparable between males and females upon uni- and multivariable analyses (aHR for OS and PFS: 0.79, 95% CI 0.59-1.04; 1.02, 95% CI 0.80-1.30, respectively). Objective response rates (24%/22%) and disease control rates (59%/59%) were also similar between sexes. Conclusion: Female phase III trial participants experienced smaller OS benefit following ICI therapy for advanced HCC, while outcomes following A+B treatment were comparable between sexes in a large real-world database. Based on the ambiguous sex-related differences in survival observed here, further investigation of sex-specific clinical and biologic determinants of responsiveness and survival following ICIs are warranted. Impact and implications: While immune checkpoint inhibitors have emerged as standard of care for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma, there are conflicting reports on whether the efficacy of cancer immunotherapy differs between females and males. Our study suggests ambiguous sex-related differences in outcomes from immunotherapy in hepatocellular carcinoma. Further investigation of sex-specific clustering in clinicopathologic and immunologic determinants of responsiveness to immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy should be prioritised. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO CRD42023429625.

Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving ß-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. METHODS: A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. RESULTS: Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. CONCLUSION: The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Influence of a Capsular Tension Ring on Capsular Bag Behavior of a Plate Haptic Intraocular Lens: An Intraindividual Randomized Trial.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the influence of a capsular tension ring (CTR) on rotational stability, decentration, tilt, and axial stability of an 11.0-mm plate haptic intraocular lens (IOL). DESIGN: Intraindividual, randomized, double-masked, controlled clinical trial. PARTICIPANTS: Patients scheduled for sequential same-day bilateral cataract surgery. METHODS: All patients were randomized to receive a CTR and a plate haptic IOL in one eye and a plate haptic IOL in the fellow eye only. Intraocular lens axis assessment was performed at the end of surgery, 1 hour, 1 week, 1 month, and 6 months using a high-precision evaluation method. Decentration and tilt of the crystalline and pseudophakic lenses were assessed before surgery and at 1 week and 6 months using an anterior segment OCT. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rotational stability from the end of surgery to 6 months and at all follow-up visits, decentration and tilt at 6 months, and differences in axial shift between 1 week and 6 months. RESULTS: One hundred thirty eyes of 65 patients were included in the study. Absolute rotation from the end of surgery to 6 months was 2.8 ± 3.9° and 3.2 ± 5.3° for the CTR and control groups, respectively (P = 0.613). Intraocular lens decentration and IOL tilt at 6 months were 0.29 ± 0.1 mm and 0.24 ± 0.1 mm and 6.7 ± 2.8° and 5.6 ± 1.6° for the CTR and control groups, respectively (P = 0.058; P < 0.01). A posterior IOL shift of 0.31 ± 0.31 mm and 0.19 ± 0.14 mm was observed in the CTR and control groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Concomitant implantation of a CTR and a plate haptic IOL did not improve the overall rotational stability of the IOL compared with the control group. Against expectations, higher values of decentration, tilt, and axial shift were observed in the CTR group. The simultaneous use of a CTR and a plate haptic IOL in the absence of zonular weakness at the time of cataract surgery should be considered with caution. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Disturbances in sodium and chloride homeostasis predict outcome in stable and critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Hyponatremia has prognostic implications in patients with cirrhosis, and thus, has been incorporated in the 2016 MELD-UNOS update. Changes in serum chloride are commonly perceived as 'just' parallel to changes in serum sodium. However, these are less well studied in the context of cirrhosis. AIMS: To investigate whether serum chloride independently predicts outcomes in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) and stable clinical course or with critical illness. METHODS: 891 patients with ACLD (defined by hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥6 mm Hg) were followed after HVPG measurement between 2003 and 2020 (ACLD cohort). 181 critically ill patients with cirrhosis admitted to the ICU between 2004 and 2007 were recruited for the ICU cohort. Hypo-/hypernatremia (normal: 136-145 mmol/L) and hypo-/hyperchloremia (normal: 98-107 mmol/L) at baseline were assessed. RESULTS: ACLD cohort: 68% of male patients with a median MELD (adjusted for Na) of 11 (9-17) were included (Child-Pugh-stages-A/B/C: 46%/38%/16%) and followed for a median of 60 months. Lower serum chloride (adjusted average HR per mmol/L: 0.965 [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.945-0.986], p = 0.001) showed a significant association with hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality on multivariable Cox regression analysis adjusted for age, HVPG, albumin and MELD. In line, hypochloremia was significantly associated with hepatic decompensation/liver-related mortality (adjusted average HR: 1.656 [95% CI:1.267-2.163], p < 0.001). ICU cohort: 70% of patients were male, median MELD was 31(22-39) at ICU admission (92% with Child-Pugh-stage-C). After adjusting for hypo-/hypernatremia, MELD, and blood pH, hypochloremia remained independently associated with ICU-mortality (aOR Cl: 3.200 [95%CI: 1.209-8.829], p = 0.021). CONCLUSION: Hypochloremia is associated with increased mortality in clinically stable and critically ill patients with cirrhosis independently of MELD including serum sodium.

Designing an exploratory phase 2b platform trial in NASH with correlated, co-primary binary endpoints.

Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and a disease with high unmet medical need. Platform trials provide great benefits for sponsors and trial participants in terms of accelerating drug development programs. In this article, we describe some of the activities of the EU-PEARL consortium (EU Patient-cEntric clinicAl tRial pLatforms) regarding the use of platform trials in NASH, in particular the proposed trial design, decision rules and simulation results. For a set of assumptions, we present the results of a simulation study recently discussed with two health authorities and the learnings from these meetings from a trial design perspective. Since the proposed design uses co-primary binary endpoints, we furthermore discuss the different options and practical considerations for simulating correlated binary endpoints.

Non-invasive tests for clinically significant portal hypertension after HCV cure.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Non-invasive tests (NITs) for clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH; hepatic venous pressure gradient [HVPG] ≥10 mmHg) have predominantly been studied in patients with active HCV infection. Investigations after HCV cure are limited and have yielded conflicting results. We conducted a pooled analysis to determine the diagnostic/prognostic utility of liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/platelet count (PLT) in this setting. METHODS: A total of 418 patients with pre-treatment HVPG ≥6 mmHg who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) and underwent post-treatment HVPG measurement were assessed, of whom 324 (HVPG/NIT-cohort) also had paired data on pre-/post-treatment LSM/PLT. The derived LSM/PLT criteria were then validated against the direct endpoint decompensation in 755 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) with SVR (cACLD-validation-cohort). RESULTS: HVPG/NIT-cohort: Among patients with cACLD, the pre-/post-treatment prevalence of CSPH was 80%/54%. The correlation between LSM/HVPG increased from pre- to post-treatment (r = 0.45 vs. 0.60), while that of PLT/HVPG remained unchanged. For given LSM/PLT values, HVPG tended to be lower post- vs. pre-treatment, indicating the need for dedicated algorithms. Combining post-treatment LSM/PLT yielded a high diagnostic accuracy for post-treatment CSPH in cACLD (AUC 0.884; 95% CI 0.843-0.926). Post-treatment LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L excluded CSPH (sensitivity: 99.2%), while LSM ≥25 kPa was highly specific for CSPH (93.6%). cACLD-validation-cohort: the 3-year decompensation risk was 0% in the 42.5% of patients who met the LSM <12 kPa & PLT >150 G/L criteria. In patients with post-treatment LSM ≥25 kPa (prevalence: 16.8%), the 3-year decompensation risk was 9.6%, while it was 1.3% in those meeting none of the above criteria (prevalence: 40.7%). CONCLUSIONS: NITs can estimate the probability of CSPH after HCV cure and predict clinical outcomes. Patients with cACLD but LSM <12 kPa & PLT>150 G/L may be discharged from portal hypertension surveillance if no co-factors are present, while patients with LSM ≥25 kPa require surveillance/treatment. LAY SUMMARY: Measurement of liver stiffness by a specific ultrasound device and platelet count (a simple blood test) are broadly used for the non-invasive diagnosis of increased blood pressure in the veins leading to the liver, which drives the development of complications in patients with advanced liver disease. The results of our pooled analysis refute previous concerns that these tests are less accurate after the cure of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We have developed diagnostic criteria that facilitate personalized management after HCV cure and allow for a de-escalation of care in a high proportion of patients, thereby decreasing disease burden.

Evaluation of a Bariatric Monitoring Pass for Primary Care Physicians.

INTRODUCTION: There are a growing number of patients undergoing bariatric surgery requiring lifelong follow-up. Therefore, follow-up care can no longer be covered by specialized outpatient clinics alone due to the sharp rise in the number of bariatric patients. Bariatric Patients in Primary Care: Postoperative Nutrition and Lifestyle Management (BagEL) is a survey to evaluate a newly developed structured disease management program including nutrition and lifestyle management in primary care. METHODS: The study is conceived as a randomized cohort study with a control group. An expert questionnaire for general practitioners (GPs) was developed to assess the usability of a structured postoperative care system regarding nutrition and lifestyle management for bariatric patients in primary care. A structured follow-up program in primary care with a so-called bariatric monitoring passport (BMP) was provided for patients in the intervention (INT) group and the existing information sheet "Metabolic surgery and perioperative care" for the control (CON) group. 124 patients, who met inclusion criteria and who underwent a bariatric procedure first time, served as ambassadors for delivery of the expert questionnaire and study documents to their individual GPs. RESULTS: A total of 39 (31.5%) different GPs from 124 ambassador patients responded. For the primary outcome "Does the aftercare-booklets support treatment of bariatric patients?" GPs of the INT group rated the new designed aftercare booklet (INT) significantly more helpful for treating bariatric patients than the one from the CON group (p = 0.041). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: These results suggest that GPs are welcoming supportive tools like our BMP to improve the care of long-term follow-up of bariatric patients and should actively participate in the development of lifelong disease management plans necessary to cope with the rapidly growing number of patients.

Kidney Function Worsening Is Linked to Parenteral-Nutrition-Dependent Survival in Palliative Care Patients.

BACKGROUND: Parenteral nutrition (PN) is frequently administered in palliative care patients suffering from cachexia. The evidence regarding the use of PN in terminally ill patients is scarce. Routine laboratory parameters might help to decide whether to start or forgo PN, which could decrease overtreatment at the end of life. Kidney failure was frequently associated with survival. However, a relation between kidney function parameters and parenteral nutrition has not been observed thus far. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to analyze kidney function parameters in palliative care patients under PN, as well as the relation between these parameters and overall survival. METHODS: Patients who were admitted to the Department of Palliative Medicine at the Medical University of Vienna were screened for PN treatment. Whether kidney function parameters at baseline or their dynamics over the course of two weeks were associated with survival was assessed with descriptive and interferential statistics. RESULTS: In total, 113 of 443 palliative care patients were administered parenteral nutrition for the first time. The overall survival (OS) for all patients with increased kidney function parameters at baseline was lower (creatinine: hazard ratio (HR) = 1.808, p < 0.001; urea: HR = 1.033, p < 0.001; uric acid HR = 1.055, p = 0.015). No significant increase in creatinine blood levels was observed in the first 2 weeks after the initiation of PN when compared to the non-PN group (p = 0.86). However, if creatinine blood levels increased within the PN group, lower overall survival was found (HR = 2.046, p = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Increased kidney function parameters, such as creatinine, urea and uric acid, might be used as negative prognostic markers in palliative care patients under PN. Moreover, an increase in creatinine during the administration of parenteral nutrition in the first 2 weeks is linked to worse outcomes. These findings may help future studies to establish objective markers for clinicians to determine whether to start or end PN in palliative cancer patients and decrease potential overtreatment at the end of life.

C-reactive protein and white blood cell count are adverse prognostic markers for patients with advanced cancer on parenteral nutrition in a palliative care unit setting: A retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Parenteral nutrition is controversial in patients with advanced cancer. Nevertheless, this treatment is common practice near the end of life. AIM: We aimed to identify factors which were associated with the outcome of patients on parenteral nutrition at an academic tertiary palliative care unit. DESIGN: In this retrospective cohort study patients were assigned to two groups according to parenteral nutrition treatment. Inferential statistics were used to assess whether the dynamics of laboratory variables over 2 weeks of parenteral nutrition were associated with survival. SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Patients admitted to the Department of Palliative Medicine at the Medical University of Vienna between 2016 and 2018 were included in this study. RESULTS: Of 443 patients, 113 patients received parenteral nutrition. Patients had a lower body mass index, lower levels of bilirubin, γ-glutamyltransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and were of younger age compared to patients which did not receive parenteral nutrition. No difference in survival as measured from admission to death was found when comparing the two groups. Levels for γ-glutamyltransferase, alkaline phosphatase, and C-reactive protein significantly increased during 2 weeks of parenteral nutrition. Among patients with parenteral nutrition, an increase in C-reactive protein or white blood cell count levels was associated with lower survival. CONCLUSION: Patients who responded with an increase of C-reactive protein or white blood cell count during 2 weeks after reinitiation or start of parenteral nutrition had a worse survival. Our findings might support clinicians and patients in their decision to forgo parenteral nutrition in a palliative care setting.

Decision rules for identifying combination therapies in open-entry, randomized controlled platform trials.

Platform trials have become increasingly popular for drug development programs, attracting interest from statisticians, clinicians and regulatory agencies. Many statistical questions related to designing platform trials-such as the impact of decision rules, sharing of information across cohorts, and allocation ratios on operating characteristics and error rates-remain unanswered. In many platform trials, the definition of error rates is not straightforward as classical error rate concepts are not applicable. For an open-entry, exploratory platform trial design comparing combination therapies to the respective monotherapies and standard-of-care, we define a set of error rates and operating characteristics and then use these to compare a set of design parameters under a range of simulation assumptions. When setting up the simulations, we aimed for realistic trial trajectories, such that for example, a priori we do not know the exact number of treatments that will be included over time in a specific simulation run as this follows a stochastic mechanism. Our results indicate that the method of data sharing, exact specification of decision rules and a priori assumptions regarding the treatment efficacy all strongly contribute to the operating characteristics of the platform trial. Furthermore, different operating characteristics might be of importance to different stakeholders. Together with the potential flexibility and complexity of a platform trial, which also impact the achieved operating characteristics via, for example, the degree of efficiency of data sharing this implies that utmost care needs to be given to evaluation of different assumptions and design parameters at the design stage.

A novel electrosurgical divider: performance in a self-controlled tonsillectomy study.

PURPOSE: Tonsillectomies are among the most common surgeries in otorhinolaryngology. A novel electrosurgical temperature-controlled instrument (device) promises rapid tonsillectomies and might reduce postoperative pain, but comparative studies to assess performance are warranted. METHODS: This randomized self-controlled clinical trial was conducted from October 2019 to October 2020 at the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery of the Medical University of Vienna. Forty-eight patients underwent a tonsillectomy with the device on one side and using cold-steel with localized bipolar cauterization on the other side (control). Main outcomes were the time for tonsil removal (per side) and the time to stop bleeding (per side). Secondary measurements were postoperative pain, assessed once on day 0 and five times on days 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10. Postoperative bleeding episodes and consequences were recorded. RESULTS: Device tonsillectomies were performed significantly faster than controls; the mean surgical time difference was 209 s (p < 0.001, 95% CI 129; 288). Intraoperative blood loss was significantly lower on the device side (all p < 0.05). Postoperative measurements of pain and bleeding were similar for both sides. Two return-to-theatre secondary bleeding events were recorded for the control side. CONCLUSION: The novel electrosurgical temperature-controlled divider reduced the tonsillectomy surgical time and intraoperative blood loss, with no apparent negative effects on postoperative pain or bleeding, compared to a cold-steel tonsillectomy with localized bipolar cauterization. In time-restricted settings, the device could be beneficial, particularly after familiarization with device handling. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03793816.

Medical care at a mass gathering music festival : Retrospective study over 7 years (2011-2017).

BACKGROUND: Knowledge about longitudinal changes in epidemiological data at mass gathering events is sparse. The goal of this study was to determine and compare the type, severity and frequency of illnesses at a large music festival over 7 consecutive years (2011-2017). METHODS: Prospectively collected data from the rescue operation protocols of an Austrian music festival were retrieved and analyzed. Patient presentation rates (PPR) and transport to hospital rates (TTHR) were calculated and compared between years. Linear regression was used to investigate the association between (a) total number of visitors and number of patient presentations, and (b) environmental factors and temperature related medical emergencies. A descriptive analysis of pertinent medical logistics management was performed. RESULTS: The median (minimum to maximum) PPR and TTHR were 12.01 (9.33 in 2016 to 20.86 in 2011) and 0.57 (0.40 in 2017 to 1.06 in 2013) per 1000 visitors, respectively. In linear regression models, no significant associations were found between the number of visitors and either the total number of patient presentations, NACA 1-2 or NACA 3-5 classified emergencies. Environmental temperature had a significant impact on heat related patient presentations (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: There were significant differences and a high variance in both PPR and TTHR over the years. Contrary to our expectations, the number of visitors did not predict the number of patient presentations. Ambient temperature was associated with the number of heat related emergencies but not with the number of cold related emergencies. Prevention strategies, such as the removal of insect nests, resulted in significantly fewer insect related emergencies.

HCC risk stratification after cure of hepatitis C in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) caused by chronic hepatitis C who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR). We developed risk stratification algorithms for de novo HCC development after SVR and validated them in an independent cohort. METHODS: We evaluated the occurrence of de novo HCC in a derivation cohort of 527 patients with pre-treatment ACLD and SVR to interferon-free therapy, in whom alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and non-invasive surrogates of portal hypertension including liver stiffness measurement (LSM) were assessed pre-/post-treatment. We validated our results in 1,500 patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD) from other European centers. RESULTS: During a median follow-up (FU) of 41 months, 22/475 patients with cACLD (4.6%, 1.45/100 patient-years) vs. 12/52 decompensated patients (23.1%, 7.00/100 patient-years, p <0.001) developed de novo HCC. Since decompensated patients were at substantial HCC risk, we focused on cACLD for all further analyses. In cACLD, post-treatment-values showed a higher discriminative ability for patients with/without de novo HCC development during FU than pre-treatment values or absolute/relative changes. Models based on post-treatment AFP, alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin, accurately predicted de novo HCC development (bootstrapped Harrel's C with/without considering alcohol: 0.893/0.836). Importantly, these parameters also provided independent prognostic information in competing risk analysis and accurately stratified patients into low- (~2/3 of patients) and high-risk (~1/3 of patients) groups in the derivation (algorithm with alcohol consumption; 4-year HCC-risk: 0% vs. 16.5%) and validation (3.3% vs. 17.5%) cohorts. An alternative approach based on alcohol consumption (optional), age, LSM, and albumin (i.e., without AFP) also showed a robust performance. CONCLUSIONS: Simple algorithms based on post-treatment age/albumin/LSM, and optionally, AFP and alcohol consumption, accurately stratified patients with cACLD based on their risk of de novo HCC after SVR. Approximately two-thirds were identified as having an HCC risk <1%/year in both the derivation and validation cohort, thereby clearly falling below the cost-effectiveness threshold for HCC surveillance. LAY SUMMARY: Simple algorithms based on age, alcohol consumption, results of blood tests (albumin and α-fetoprotein), as well as liver stiffness measurement after the end of hepatitis C treatment identify a large proportion (approximately two-thirds) of patients with advanced but still asymptomatic liver disease who are at very low risk (<1%/year) of liver cancer development, and thus, might not need to undergo 6-monthly liver ultrasound.

Adjunctive treatment with high-titre convalescent plasma in severely and critically ill COVID-19 patients - a safe but futile intervention. A comparative cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Convalescent plasma (CP) containing antibodies derived from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survivors has been proposed as a promising therapeutic option for severe COVID-19. METHODS: In our intensive care unit (ICU), 55 patients (46 male, median age 61 years) with PCR-confirmed COVID-19 (35 = 63.6% on mechanical ventilation, 7 = 14.5% on high-flow nasal oxygen, 12 = 20% on non-invasive ventilation, 1 = 1.8% without respiratory support) were treated with high-titre CP (200 mL per dose, range 1-6 doses, median 3 doses per patient, minimum titre > 1:100, Wantai test). 139 COVID-19 patients treated in the same ICU who did not receive CP served as control group. In 27 patients, the effect of CP on the individual levels of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies was assessed by ELISA in serum sample pairs collected before and after CP transfusion. RESULTS: The first CP dose was administered at a median of 8 days after symptom onset. 13 patients in the plasma cohort died (28-day mortality 24.1%), compared to 42 (30.2%) in the cohort who did not receive CP (p = 0.5, Pearson Chi-squared test). Out of the 27 individuals investigated for the presence of IgG antibodies, 8 did not have detectable IgG levels before the first CP transfusion. In this subpopulation, 3 patients (37.5%) died. Not a single confirmed adverse reaction to CP was noted. CONCLUSIONS: While adjunctive treatment with CP for severe and life-threatening COVID-19 was a very safe intervention, we did not observe any effect on mortality.

Combined effects of PNPLA3, TM6SF2 and HSD17B13 variants on severity of biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

OBJECTIVE: Several single-nucleotide polymorphisms have been identified to be disadvantageous or protective in regard to disease severity in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). However, it is unclear, whether including genetic risk factor(s) either alone or combined into risk stratification algorithms for NAFLD actually provides incremental benefit over clinical risk factors. DESIGN: Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were genotyped for the PNPLA3-rs738409(minor allele:G), TM6SF2-rs58542926(minor allele:T) and HSD17B13- rs72613567 (minor allele:TA) variants. The NAFLD activity score (NAS) and fibrosis stage (F0-F4) were used to grade and stage all liver biopsy samples. Patients from seven centers throughout Central Europe were considered for the study. RESULTS: 703 patients were included: NAS ≥ 5:173(24.6%); Fibrosis: F3-4:81(11.5%). PNPLA3 G/G genotype was associated with a NAS ≥ 5(aOR 2.23, p = 0.007) and advanced fibrosis (aOR-3.48, p < 0.001).TM6SF2 T/- was associated with advanced fibrosis (aOR 1.99, p = 0.023). HSD17B13 TA/- was associated with a lower probability of NAS ≥ 5(TA/T: aOR 0.65, p = 0.041, TA/TA: aOR 0.40, p = 0.033). Regarding the predictive capability for NAS ≥ 5, well-known risk factors (age, sex, BMI, diabetes, and ALT; baseline model) had an AUC of 0.758, Addition of PNPLA3(AUC 0.766), HSB17B13(AUC 0.766), and their combination(AUC 0.775), but not of TM6SF2(AUC 0.762), resulted in a higher diagnostic accuracy of the model. Addition of genetic markers for the prediction of advanced fibrosis (baseline model: age, sex, BMI, diabetes: AUC 0.777) resulted in a higher AUC if PNPLA3(AUC 0.789), and TM6SF2(AUC 0.786) but not if HSD17B13(0.777) were added. CONCLUSION: In biopsy-proven NAFLD, PNPLA3 G/-, TM6SF2 T/- and HSD17B13 TA/- carriage are associated with severity of NAFLD. Incorporating these genetic risk factors into risk stratification models might improve their predictive accuracy for severity of NAFLD and/or advanced fibrosis on liver biopsy.

Tumor Growth Rate Estimates Are Independently Predictive of Therapy Response and Survival in Recurrent High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Patients.

This study aimed to assess the predictive value of tumor growth rate estimates based on serial cancer antigen-125 (CA-125) levels on therapy response and survival of patients with recurrent high-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC). In total, 301 consecutive patients with advanced HGSOC (exploratory cohort: n = 155, treated at the Medical University of Vienna; external validation cohort: n = 146, from the Ovarian Cancer Therapy-Innovative Models Prolong Survival (OCTIPS) consortium) were enrolled. Tumor growth estimates were obtained using a validated two-phase equation model involving serial CA-125 levels, and their predictive value with respect to treatment response to the next chemotherapy and the prognostic value with respect to disease-specific survival and overall survival were assessed. Tumor growth estimates were an independent predictor for response to second-line chemotherapy and an independent prognostic factor for second-line chemotherapy use in both univariate and multivariable analyses, outperforming both the predictive (second line: p = 0.003, HR 5.19 [1.73-15.58] vs. p = 0.453, HR 1.95 [0.34-11.17]) and prognostic values (second line: p = 0.042, HR 1.53 [1.02-2.31] vs. p = 0.331, HR 1.39 [0.71-2.27]) of a therapy-free interval (TFI) < 6 months. Tumor growth estimates were a predictive factor for response to third- and fourth-line chemotherapy and a prognostic factor for third- and fourth-line chemotherapy use in the univariate analysis. The CA-125-derived tumor growth rate estimate may be a quantifiable and easily assessable surrogate to TFI in treatment decision making for patients with recurrent HGSOC.