Can Machine Learning Assist in Diagnosis of Primary Immune Thrombocytopenia? A Feasibility Study.

Primary Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a rare autoimmune disease characterised by the immune-mediated destruction of peripheral blood platelets in patients leading to low platelet counts and bleeding. The diagnosis and effective management of ITP are challenging because there is no established test to confirm the disease and no biomarker with which one can predict the response to treatment and outcome. In this work, we conduct a feasibility study to check if machine learning can be applied effectively for the diagnosis of ITP using routine blood tests and demographic data in a non-acute outpatient setting. Various ML models, including Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, k-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree and Random Forest, were applied to data from the UK Adult ITP Registry and a general haematology clinic. Two different approaches were investigated: a demographic-unaware and a demographic-aware one. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the predictive performance of these models and approaches, as well as their bias. The results revealed that Decision Tree and Random Forest models were both superior and fair, achieving nearly perfect predictive and fairness scores, with platelet count identified as the most significant variable. Models not provided with demographic information performed better in terms of predictive accuracy but showed lower fairness scores, illustrating a trade-off between predictive performance and fairness.

Incidence of adult primary immune thrombocytopenia in England-An update.

BACKGROUND: Adult primary immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is a rare bleeding disorder of unknown cause. Recent estimates of its incidence and trend over time were acquired for England. METHOD: The primary ITP population (using ICD 10 code D693 and excluding secondary ITP cases; positive predictive value: 82.6%) was sourced from NHS Digital inpatient and outpatient. Incidence rate (IR) for England and by age groups, sex, and regions were calculated and trends were assessed using average annual percent change (AAPC). RESULTS: A total of 25 805 patients (mean age 59 years; females 57.8%) diagnosed between 2003 and 2014 was identified. IRs increased from 4.2/100 000 to 6.4/100 000 over this period (AAPC:4.3%). For all sex-specific age groups, the IRs significantly increased over time, except 18-29 years males. The greatest increase was among females aged 30-39 (AAPC:8.7%). In contrast, among ≥70 years, ITP was more common in males (highest IR among ≥80 years males: 23.9/100 000). England's average annual IR was 6.1/100 000 for 2010-14. An estimated 2.5/100 000 (based on UKITP Registry data) was estimated to require 1st line treatment whereas 2.4/100 000 would have 1st and 2nd line treatments within 6 months from diagnosis. IRs for London and East Midlands were the highest (6.5/100 000). CONCLUSIONS: This study found a rising incidence of primary ITP, with sharp increases among young women and elderly men. These findings put in context the impact of ITP on patients' lives and the healthcare services in England, especially with 17%-50% who may develop chronic ITP and require long-term care.

Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Targeted Biopsies Compared to Transperineal Mapping Biopsies Before Focal Ablation in Localised and Metastatic Recurrent Prostate Cancer After Radiotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Recurrent prostate cancer after radiotherapy occurs in one in five patients. The efficacy of prostate magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in recurrent cancer has not been established. Furthermore, high-quality data on new minimally invasive salvage focal ablative treatments are needed. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the role of prostate MRI in detection of prostate cancer recurring after radiotherapy and the role of salvage focal ablation in treating recurrent disease. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The FORECAST trial was both a paired-cohort diagnostic study evaluating prostate multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) and MRI-targeted biopsies in the detection of recurrent cancer and a cohort study evaluating focal ablation at six UK centres. A total of 181 patients were recruited, with 155 included in the MRI analysis and 93 in the focal ablation analysis. INTERVENTION: Patients underwent choline positron emission tomography/computed tomography and a bone scan, followed by prostate mpMRI and MRI-targeted and transperineal template-mapping (TTPM) biopsies. MRI was reported blind to other tests. Those eligible underwent subsequent focal ablation. An amendment in December 2014 permitted focal ablation in patients with metastases. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Primary outcomes were the sensitivity of MRI and MRI-targeted biopsies for cancer detection, and urinary incontinence after focal ablation. A key secondary outcome was progression-free survival (PFS). RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Staging whole-body imaging revealed localised cancer in 128 patients (71%), with involvement of pelvic nodes only in 13 (7%) and metastases in 38 (21%). The sensitivity of MRI-targeted biopsy was 92% (95% confidence interval [CI] 83-97%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 75% (95% CI 45-92%), 94% (95% CI 86-98%), and 65% (95% CI 38-86%), respectively. Four cancer (6%) were missed by TTPM biopsy and six (8%) were missed by MRI-targeted biopsy. The overall MRI sensitivity for detection of any cancer was 94% (95% CI 88-98%). The specificity and positive and negative predictive values were 18% (95% CI 7-35%), 80% (95% CI 73-87%), and 46% (95% CI 19-75%), respectively. Among 93 patients undergoing focal ablation, urinary incontinence occurred in 15 (16%) and five (5%) had a grade ≥3 adverse event, with no rectal injuries. Median follow-up was 27 mo (interquartile range 18-36); overall PFS was 66% (interquartile range 54-75%) at 24 mo. CONCLUSIONS: Patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies to optimise cancer detection. Focal ablation for areas of intraprostatic recurrence preserves continence in the majority, with good early cancer control. PATIENT SUMMARY: We investigated the role of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of the prostate and MRI-targeted biopsies in outcomes after cancer-targeted high-intensity ultrasound or cryotherapy in patients with recurrent cancer after radiotherapy. Our findings show that these patients should undergo prostate MRI with both systematic and targeted biopsies and then ablative treatment focused on areas of recurrent cancer to preserve their quality of life. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT01883128.

Comparing outcome of radiofrequency ablation in Barrett's with high grade dysplasia and intramucosal carcinoma: a prospective multicenter UK registry.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIM: Mucosal neoplasia arising in Barrett's esophagus can be successfully treated with endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) followed by radiofrequency ablation (RFA). The aim of the study was to compare clinical outcomes of patients with high grade dysplasia (HGD) or intramucosal cancer (IMC) at baseline from the United Kingdom RFA registry. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prior to RFA, visible lesions and nodularity were removed entirely by EMR. Thereafter, patients underwent RFA every 3 months until all visible Barrett's mucosa was ablated or cancer developed (end points). Biopsies were taken at 12 months or when end points were reached. RESULTS: A total of 515 patients, 384 with HGD and 131 with IMC, completed treatment. Prior to RFA, EMR was performed for visible lesions more frequently in the IMC cohort than in HGD patients (77 % vs. 47 %; P < 0.0001). The 12-month complete response for dysplasia and intestinal metaplasia were almost identical in the two cohorts (HGD 88 % and 76 %, respectively; IMC 87 % and 75 %, respectively; P = 0.7). Progression to invasive cancer was not significantly different at 12 months (HGD 1.8 %, IMC 3.8 %; P = 0.19). A trend towards slightly worse medium-term durability may be emerging in IMC patients (P = 0.08). In IMC, EMR followed by RFA was definitely associated with superior durability compared with RFA alone (P = 0.01). CONCLUSION: The Registry reports on endoscopic therapy for Barrett's neoplasia, representing real-life outcomes. Patients with IMC were more likely to have visible lesions requiring initial EMR than those with HGD, and may carry a higher risk of cancer progression in the medium term. The data consolidate the approach to ensuring that these patients undergo thorough endoscopic work-up, including EMR prior to RFA when necessary.

Radiofrequency ablation and endoscopic mucosal resection for dysplastic barrett's esophagus and early esophageal adenocarcinoma: outcomes of the UK National Halo RFA Registry.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with Barrett's esophagus (BE) and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) or early neoplasia increasingly receive endoscopic mucosal resection and radiofrequency ablation (RFA) therapy. We analyzed data from a UK registry that follows the outcomes of patients with BE who have undergone RFA for neoplasia. METHODS: We collected data on 335 patients with BE and neoplasia (72% with HGD, 24% with intramucosal cancer, 4% with low-grade dysplasia [mean age, 69 years; 81% male]), treated at 19 centers in the United Kingdom from July 2008 through August 2012. Mean length of BE segments was 5.8 cm (range, 1-20 cm). Patients' nodules were removed by endoscopic mucosal resection, and the patients then underwent RFA every 3 months until all areas of BE were ablated or cancer developed. Biopsies were collected 12 months after the first RFA; clearance of HGD, dysplasia, and BE were assessed. RESULTS: HGD was cleared from 86% of patients, all dysplasia from 81%, and BE from 62% at the 12-month time point, after a mean of 2.5 (range, 2-6) RFA procedures. Complete reversal dysplasia was 15% less likely for every 1-cm increment in BE length (odds ratio = 1.156; SE = 0.048; 95% confidence interval: 1.07-1.26; P < .001). Endoscopic mucosal resection before RFA did not provide any benefit. Invasive cancer developed in 10 patients (3%) by the 12-month time point and disease had progressed in 17 patients (5.1%) after a median follow-up time of 19 months. Symptomatic strictures developed in 9% of patients and were treated by endoscopic dilatation. Nineteen months after therapy began, 94% of patients remained clear of dysplasia. CONCLUSIONS: We analyzed data from a large series of patients in the United Kingdom who underwent RFA for BE-related neoplasia and found that by 12 months after treatment, dysplasia was cleared from 81%. Shorter segments of BE respond better to RFA; http://www.controlled-trials.com, number ISRCTN93069556.