The maintenance of genetic diversity under host-parasite coevolution in finite, structured populations.

As a corollary to the Red Queen hypothesis, host-parasite coevolution has been hypothesized to maintain genetic variation in both species. Recent theoretical work, however, suggests that reciprocal natural selection alone is insufficient to maintain variation at individual loci. As highlighted by our brief review of the theoretical literature, models of host-parasite coevolution often vary along multiple axes (e.g. inclusion of ecological feedbacks or abiotic selection mosaics), complicating a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interacting evolutionary processes on diversity. Here we develop a series of comparable models to explore the effect of interactions between spatial structures and antagonistic coevolution on genetic diversity. Using a matching alleles model in finite populations connected by migration, we find that, in contrast to panmictic populations, coevolution in a spatially structured environment can maintain genetic variation relative to neutral expectations with migration alone. These results demonstrate that geographic structure is essential for understanding the effect of coevolution on biological diversity.

Past and future uses of text mining in ecology and evolution.

Ecology and evolutionary biology, like other scientific fields, are experiencing an exponential growth of academic manuscripts. As domain knowledge accumulates, scientists will need new computational approaches for identifying relevant literature to read and include in formal literature reviews and meta-analyses. Importantly, these approaches can also facilitate automated, large-scale data synthesis tasks and build structured databases from the information in the texts of primary journal articles, books, grey literature, and websites. The increasing availability of digital text, computational resources, and machine-learning based language models have led to a revolution in text analysis and natural language processing (NLP) in recent years. NLP has been widely adopted across the biomedical sciences but is rarely used in ecology and evolutionary biology. Applying computational tools from text mining and NLP will increase the efficiency of data synthesis, improve the reproducibility of literature reviews, formalize analyses of research biases and knowledge gaps, and promote data-driven discovery of patterns across ecology and evolutionary biology. Here we present recent use cases from ecology and evolution, and discuss future applications, limitations and ethical issues.

Understanding dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum gametocytes production: Insights from an age-structured model.

Many models of within-host malaria infection dynamics have been formulated since the pioneering work of Anderson et al. in 1989. Biologically, the goal of these models is to understand what governs the severity of infections, the patterns of infectiousness, and the variation thereof across individual hosts. Mathematically, these models are based on dynamical systems, with standard approaches ranging from K-compartments ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to delay differential equations (DDEs), to capture the relatively constant duration of replication and bursting once a parasite infects a host red blood cell. Using malariatherapy data, which offers fine-scale resolution on the dynamics of infection across a number of individual hosts, we compare the fit and robustness of one of these standard approaches (K-compartments ODE) with a partial differential equations (PDEs) model, which explicitly tracks the "age" of an infected cell. While both models perform quite similarly in terms of goodness-of-fit for suitably chosen K, the K-compartments ODE model particularly overestimates parasite densities early on in infections when the number of repeated compartments is not large enough. Finally, the K-compartments ODE model (for suitably chosen K) and the PDE model highlight a strong qualitative connection between the density of transmissible parasite stages (i.e., gametocytes) and the density of host-damaging (and asexually-replicating) parasite stages. This finding provides a simple tool for predicting which hosts are most infectious to mosquitoes -vectors of Plasmodium parasites- which is a crucial component of global efforts to control and eliminate malaria.

Virulence Evolution of Pathogens That Can Grow in Reservoir Environments.

AbstractMany pathogens reside in environmental reservoirs within which they can reproduce and from which they can infect hosts. These facultative pathogens experience different selective pressures in host-associated environments and reservoir environments. Heterogeneous selective pressures have the potential to influence the virulence evolution of these pathogens. Previous research has examined how environmental transmission influences the selective pressures shaping the virulence of pathogens that cannot reproduce in environmental reservoirs, yet many pathogens of humans, crop plants, and livestock can reproduce in these environments. We build on this work to examine how reproduction in reservoirs influences disease dynamics and virulence evolution in a simple facultative pathogen model. We use adaptive dynamics to examine the evolutionary dynamics of facultative pathogens under potential trade-offs between transmission and virulence, shedding and virulence, and reservoir persistence and virulence. We then perform critical function analysis to generalize the results independent of specific trade-off assumptions. We determine that diverse virulence strategies, sometimes resulting from evolutionary bistability or evolutionary branching conditions, are expected for facultative pathogens. Our findings motivate research establishing which trade-offs most strongly influence the virulence evolution of facultative pathogens.

Looking across Scales in Disease Ecology and Evolution.

AbstractOver the past few decades, it has become clear that ecological and evolutionary dynamics are influenced by processes operating across spatial and temporal scales. Processes that operate on small spatial scales have the potential to influence dynamics at much larger scales; for example, a change in the physiology of a primary producer can alter primary productivity in an ecosystem. Similarly, evolution-a process that historically was thought of as occurring at longer timescales-can influence ecological dynamics and vice versa. The importance of considering multiple scales is broadly true in ecology and evolution, and it is especially important for studies of disease ecology and evolution. Yet characterizing the scales at which individual studies operate is surprisingly challenging, as we (re)discovered while trying to characterize articles published in this journal over the past three decades. However, while it is difficult to determine where one scale ends and another begins, it is also clear that work that spans across a spectrum can yield insights that could not be gleaned from a narrower focus. To demonstrate this, we highlight studies previously published in this journal that show the value of working across scales. We then introduce the six articles that comprise this Focused Topic section. Together, these articles present systems, theory, and methods that provide important insights that could not have been obtained from studying a single scale in isolation.

Low Complexity of Infection Is Associated With Molecular Persistence of Plasmodium falciparum in Kenya and Tanzania.

Background: Plasmodium falciparum resistance to artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) is a threat to malaria elimination. ACT-resistance in Asia raises concerns for emergence of resistance in Africa. While most data show high efficacy of ACT regimens in Africa, there have been reports describing declining efficacy, as measured by both clinical failure and prolonged parasite clearance times. Methods: Three hundred children aged 2-10 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum infection were enrolled in Kenya and Tanzania after receiving treatment with artemether-lumefantrine. Blood samples were taken at 0, 24, 48, and 72 h, and weekly thereafter until 28 days post-treatment. Parasite and host genetics were assessed, as well as clinical, behavioral, and environmental characteristics, and host anti-malarial serologic response. Results: While there was a broad range of clearance rates at both sites, 85% and 96% of Kenyan and Tanzanian samples, respectively, were qPCR-positive but microscopy-negative at 72 h post-treatment. A greater complexity of infection (COI) was negatively associated with qPCR-detectable parasitemia at 72 h (OR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.53-0.94), and a greater baseline parasitemia was marginally associated with qPCR-detectable parasitemia (1,000 parasites/uL change, OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03). Demographic, serological, and host genotyping characteristics showed no association with qPCR-detectable parasitemia at 72 h. Parasite haplotype-specific clearance slopes were grouped around the mean with no association detected between specific haplotypes and slower clearance rates. Conclusions: Identifying risk factors for slow clearing P. falciparum infections, such as COI, are essential for ongoing surveillance of ACT treatment failure in Kenya, Tanzania, and more broadly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Linking functional and molecular mechanisms of host resilience to malaria infection.

It remains challenging to understand why some hosts suffer severe illnesses, while others are unscathed by the same infection. We fitted a mathematical model to longitudinal measurements of parasite and red blood cell density in murine hosts from diverse genetic backgrounds to identify aspects of within-host interactions that explain variation in host resilience and survival during acute malaria infection. Among eight mouse strains that collectively span 90% of the common genetic diversity of laboratory mice, we found that high host mortality was associated with either weak parasite clearance, or a strong, yet imprecise response that inadvertently removes uninfected cells in excess. Subsequent cross-sectional cytokine assays revealed that the two distinct functional mechanisms of poor survival were underpinned by low expression of either pro- or anti-inflammatory cytokines, respectively. By combining mathematical modelling and molecular immunology assays, our study uncovered proximate mechanisms of diverse infection outcomes across multiple host strains and biological scales.

Mosaic vaccination: How distributing different vaccines across a population could improve epidemic control.

Although vaccination has been remarkably effective against some pathogens, for others, rapid antigenic evolution results in vaccination conferring only weak and/or short-lived protection. Consequently, considerable effort has been invested in developing more evolutionarily robust vaccines, either by targeting highly conserved components of the pathogen (universal vaccines) or by including multiple immunological targets within a single vaccine (multi-epitope vaccines). An unexplored third possibility is to vaccinate individuals with one of a number of qualitatively different vaccines, creating a "mosaic" of individual immunity in the population. Here we explore whether a mosaic vaccination strategy can deliver superior epidemiological outcomes to "conventional" vaccination, in which all individuals receive the same vaccine. We suppose vaccine doses can be distributed between distinct vaccine "targets" (e.g., different surface proteins against which an immune response can be generated) and/or immunologically distinct variants at these targets (e.g., strains); the pathogen can undergo antigenic evolution at both targets. Using simple mathematical models, here we provide a proof-of-concept that mosaic vaccination often outperforms conventional vaccination, leading to fewer infected individuals, improved vaccine efficacy, and lower individual risks over the course of the epidemic.

The ghost of hosts past: impacts of host extinction on parasite specificity.

A growing body of research is focused on the extinction of parasite species in response to host endangerment and declines. Beyond the loss of parasite species richness, host extinction can impact apparent parasite host specificity, as measured by host richness or the phylogenetic distances among hosts. Such impacts on the distribution of parasites across the host phylogeny can have knock-on effects that may reshape the adaptation of both hosts and parasites, ultimately shifting the evolutionary landscape underlying the potential for emergence and the evolution of virulence across hosts. Here, we examine how the reshaping of host phylogenies through extinction may impact the host specificity of parasites, and offer examples from historical extinctions, present-day endangerment, and future projections of biodiversity loss. We suggest that an improved understanding of the impact of host extinction on contemporary host-parasite interactions may shed light on core aspects of disease ecology, including comparative studies of host specificity, virulence evolution in multi-host parasite systems, and future trajectories for host and parasite biodiversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease macroecology: parasite diversity and dynamics across the globe'.

Immune selection suppresses the emergence of drug resistance in malaria parasites but facilitates its spread.

Although drug resistance in Plasmodium falciparum typically evolves in regions of low transmission, resistance spreads readily following introduction to regions with a heavier disease burden. This suggests that the origin and the spread of resistance are governed by different processes, and that high transmission intensity specifically impedes the origin. Factors associated with high transmission, such as highly immune hosts and competition within genetically diverse infections, are associated with suppression of resistant lineages within hosts. However, interactions between these factors have rarely been investigated and the specific relationship between adaptive immunity and selection for resistance has not been explored. Here, we developed a multiscale, agent-based model of Plasmodium parasites, hosts, and vectors to examine how host and parasite dynamics shape the evolution of resistance in populations with different transmission intensities. We found that selection for antigenic novelty ("immune selection") suppressed the evolution of resistance in high transmission settings. We show that high levels of population immunity increased the strength of immune selection relative to selection for resistance. As a result, immune selection delayed the evolution of resistance in high transmission populations by allowing novel, sensitive lineages to remain in circulation at the expense of the spread of a resistant lineage. In contrast, in low transmission settings, we observed that resistant strains were able to sweep to high population prevalence without interference. Additionally, we found that the relationship between immune selection and resistance changed when resistance was widespread. Once resistance was common enough to be found on many antigenic backgrounds, immune selection stably maintained resistant parasites in the population by allowing them to proliferate, even in untreated hosts, when resistance was linked to a novel epitope. Our results suggest that immune selection plays a role in the global pattern of resistance evolution.

Challenges in forming inferences from limited data: a case study of malaria parasite maturation.

Inferring biological processes from population dynamics is a common challenge in ecology, particularly when faced with incomplete data. This challenge extends to inferring parasite traits from within-host infection dynamics. We focus on rodent malaria infections (Plasmodium berghei), a system for which previous work inferred an immune-mediated extension in the length of the parasite development cycle within red blood cells. By developing a system of delay-differential equations to describe within-host infection dynamics and simulating data, we demonstrate the potential to obtain biased estimates of parasite (and host) traits when key biological processes are not considered. Despite generating infection dynamics using a fixed parasite developmental cycle length, we find that known sources of measurement bias in parasite stage and abundance data can affect estimates of parasite developmental duration, with stage misclassification driving inferences about extended cycle length. We discuss alternative protocols and statistical methods that can mitigate such misestimation.

Uncovering drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in malaria infection outcomes.

To understand why some hosts get sicker than others from the same type of infection, it is essential to explain how key processes, such as host responses to infection and parasite growth, are influenced by various biotic and abiotic factors. In many disease systems, the initial infection dose impacts host morbidity and mortality. To explore drivers of dose-dependence and individual variation in infection outcomes, we devised a mathematical model of malaria infection that allowed host and parasite traits to be linear functions (reaction norms) of the initial dose. We fitted the model, using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, to experimental time-series data of acute Plasmodium chabaudi infection across doses spanning seven orders of magnitude. We found evidence for both dose-dependent facilitation and debilitation of host responses. Most importantly, increasing dose reduced the strength of activation of indiscriminate host clearance of red blood cells while increasing the half-life of that response, leading to the maximal response at an intermediate dose. We also explored the causes of diverse infection outcomes across replicate mice receiving the same dose. Besides random noise in the injected dose, we found variation in peak parasite load was due to unobserved individual variation in host responses to clear infected cells. Individual variation in anaemia was likely driven by random variation in parasite burst size, which is linked to the rate of host cells lost to malaria infection. General host vigour in the absence of infection was also correlated with host health during malaria infection. Our work demonstrates that the reaction norm approach provides a useful quantitative framework for examining the impact of a continuous external factor on within-host infection processes.

Resistance to natural and synthetic gene drive systems.

Scientists are rapidly developing synthetic gene drive elements intended for release into natural populations. These are intended to control or eradicate disease vectors and pests, or to spread useful traits through wild populations for disease control or conservation purposes. However, a crucial problem for gene drives is the evolution of resistance against them, preventing their spread. Understanding the mechanisms by which populations might evolve resistance is essential for engineering effective gene drive systems. This review summarizes our current knowledge of drive resistance in both natural and synthetic gene drives. We explore how insights from naturally occurring and synthetic drive systems can be integrated to improve the design of gene drives, better predict the outcome of releases and understand genomic conflict in general.

Deconstructing the Impact of Malaria Vector Diversity on Disease Risk.

AbstractRecent years have seen significant progress in understanding the impact of host community assemblage on disease risk, yet diversity in disease vectors has rarely been investigated. Using published malaria and mosquito surveys from Kenya, we analyzed the relationship between malaria prevalence and multiple axes of mosquito diversity: abundance, species richness, and composition. We found a net amplification of malaria prevalence by vector species richness, a result of a strong direct positive association between richness and prevalence alongside a weak indirect negative association between the two, mediated through mosquito community composition. One plausible explanation of these patterns is species niche complementarity, whereby less competent vector species contribute to disease transmission by filling spatial or temporal gaps in transmission left by dominant vectors. A greater understanding of vector community assemblage and function, as well as any interactions between host and vector biodiversity, could offer insights to both fundamental and applied ecology.

The influence of bat ecology on viral diversity and reservoir status.

Repeated emergence of zoonotic viruses from bat reservoirs into human populations demands predictive approaches to preemptively identify virus-carrying bat species. Here, we use machine learning to examine drivers of viral diversity in bats, determine whether those drivers depend on viral genome type, and predict undetected viral carriers. Our results indicate that bat species with longer life spans, broad geographic distributions in the eastern hemisphere, and large group sizes carry more viruses overall. Life span was a stronger predictor of deoxyribonucleic acid viral diversity, while group size and family were more important for predicting ribonucleic acid viruses, potentially reflecting broad differences in infection duration. Importantly, our models predict 54 bat species as likely carriers of zoonotic viruses, despite not currently being considered reservoirs. Mapping these predictions as a proportion of local bat diversity, we identify global regions where efforts to reduce disease spillover into humans by identifying viral carriers may be most productive.

Evolutionary consequences of feedbacks between within-host competition and disease control.

Lay Summary: Competition often occurs among diverse parasites within a single host, but control efforts could change its strength. We examined how the interplay between competition and control could shape the evolution of parasite traits like drug resistance and disease severity.

Partitioning the influence of ecology across scales on parasite evolution.

Vector-borne parasites must succeed at three scales to persist: they must proliferate within a host, establish in vectors, and transmit back to hosts. Ecology outside the host undergoes dramatic seasonal and human-induced changes, but predicting parasite evolutionary responses requires integrating their success across scales. We develop a novel, data-driven model to titrate the evolutionary impact of ecology at multiple scales on human malaria parasites. We investigate how parasites invest in transmission versus proliferation, a life-history trait that influences disease severity and spread. We find that transmission investment controls the pattern of host infectiousness over the course of infection: a trade-off emerges between early and late infectiousness, and the optimal resolution of that trade-off depends on ecology outside the host. An expanding epidemic favors rapid proliferation, and can overwhelm the evolutionary influence of host recovery rates and mosquito population dynamics. If transmission investment and recovery rate are positively correlated, then ecology outside the host imposes potent selection for aggressive parasite proliferation at the expense of transmission. Any association between transmission investment and recovery represents a key unknown, one that is likely to influence whether the evolutionary consequences of interventions are beneficial or costly for human health.

The Challenge of Quantifying Synchrony in Malaria Parasites.

Malaria infection is often accompanied by periodic fevers, triggered by synchronous cycles of parasite replication within the host. The degree of synchrony in parasite development influences the efficacy of drugs and immune defenses and is therefore relevant to host health and infectiousness. Synchrony is thought to vary over the course of infection and across different host-parasite genotype or species combinations, but the evolutionary significance - if any - of this diversity remains elusive. Standardized methods are lacking, but the most common metric for quantifying synchrony is the percentage of parasites in a particular developmental stage. We use a heuristic model to show that this metric is often unacceptably biased. Methodological challenges must be addressed to characterize diverse patterns of synchrony and their consequences for disease severity and spread.

Phylogeny matters: revisiting 'a comparison of bats and rodents as reservoirs of zoonotic viruses'.

Diseases emerging from wildlife have been the source of many major human outbreaks. Predicting key sources of these outbreaks requires an understanding of the factors that explain pathogen diversity in reservoir species. Comparative methods are powerful tools for understanding variation in pathogen diversity and rely on correcting for phylogenetic relatedness among reservoir species. We reanalysed a previously published dataset, examining the relative effects of species' traits on patterns of viral diversity in bats and rodents. We expanded on prior work by using more highly resolved phylogenies for bats and rodents and incorporating a phylogenetically controlled principal components analysis. For rodents, sympatry and torpor use were important predictors of viral richness and, as previously reported, phylogeny had minimal impact in models. For bats, in contrast to prior work, we find that phylogeny does have an effect in models. Patterns of viral diversity in bats were related to geographical distribution (i.e. latitude and range size) and life history (i.e. lifespan, body size and birthing frequency). However, the effects of these predictors were marginal relative to citation count, emphasizing that the ability to accurately assess reservoir status largely depends on sampling effort and highlighting the need for additional data in future comparative studies.