Metabolic causes of liver disease among adults living with HIV from low- and middle-income countries: a cross-sectional study.

INTRODUCTION: Liver disease is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among persons living with HIV (PLHIV). While chronic viral hepatitis has been extensively studied in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), there is limited information about the burden of metabolic disorders on liver disease in PLHIV. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of baseline data collected between October 2020 and July 2022 from the IeDEA-Sentinel Research Network, a prospective cohort enrolling PLHIV ≥40 years on antiretroviral treatment (ART) for ≥6 months from eight clinics in Asia, Americas, and central, East, southern and West Africa. Clinical assessments, laboratory testing on fasting blood samples and liver stiffness measurement (LSM)/controlled attenuation parameter (CAP) by vibration-controlled transient elastography were performed. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed factors associated with liver fibrosis (LSM ≥7.1 kPa) and steatosis (CAP ≥248 dB/m). Population attributable fraction (PAF) of each variable associated with significant liver fibrosis was estimated using Levin's formula. RESULTS: Overall, 2120 PLHIV (56% female, median age 50 [interquartile range: 45-56] years) were included. The prevalence of obesity was 19%, 12% had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), 29% had hypertension and 53% had dyslipidaemia. The overall prevalence of liver fibrosis and steatosis was 7.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.1-8.4) and 28.4% (95% CI 26.5-30.7), respectively, with regional variability. Male sex at birth (odds ratio [OR] 1.62, CI 1.10-2.40), overweight/obesity (OR = 2.50, 95% CI 1.69-3.75), T2DM (OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.46-3.47) and prolonged exposure to didanosine (OR 3.13, 95% CI 1.46-6.49) were associated with liver fibrosis. Overweight/obesity and T2DM accounted for 42% and 11% of the PAF for liver fibrosis, while HBsAg and anti-HCV accounted for 3% and 1%, respectively. Factors associated with steatosis included overweight/obesity (OR 4.25, 95% CI 3.29-5.51), T2DM (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.47-2.88), prolonged exposure to stavudine (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.27-2.26) and dyslipidaemia (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.16). CONCLUSIONS: Metabolic disorders were significant risk factors for liver disease among PLHIV in LMICs. Early recognition of metabolic disorders risk factors might be helpful to guide clinical and lifestyle interventions. Further prospective studies are needed to determine the causative natures of these findings.

Achieving consistency in measures of HIV-1 viral suppression across countries: derivation of an adjustment based on international antiretroviral treatment cohort data.

INTRODUCTION: The third of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets is to achieve a 90% rate of viral suppression (HIV viral load <1000 HIV-1 RNA copies/ml) in patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) by 2020. However, some countries use different thresholds when reporting viral suppression, and there is thus a need for an adjustment to standardize estimates to the <1000 threshold. We aim to propose such an adjustment, to support consistent monitoring of progress towards the "third 90" target. METHODS: We considered three possible distributions for viral loads in ART patients: Weibull, Pareto and reverse Weibull (imposing an upper limit but no lower limit on the log scale). The models were fitted to data on viral load distributions in ART patients in the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) collaboration (representing seven global regions) and the ART Cohort Collaboration (representing Europe), using separate random effects models for adults and children. The models were validated using data from the World Health Organization (WHO) HIV drug resistance report and the Brazilian national ART programme. RESULTS: Models were calibrated using 921,157 adult and 37,431 paediatric viral load measurements, over 2010-2019. The Pareto and reverse Weibull models provided the best fits to the data, but for all models, the "shape" parameters for the viral load distributions differed significantly between regions. The Weibull model performed best in the validation against the WHO drug resistance survey data, while the Pareto model produced uncertainty ranges that were too narrow, relative to the validation data. Based on these analyses, we recommend using the reverse Weibull model. For example, if a country reports an 80% rate of viral suppression at <200 copies/ml, this model estimates the proportion virally suppressed at <1000 copies/ml is 88.3% (0.800.56 ), with uncertainty range 85.5-90.6% (0.800.70 -0.800.44 ). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of viral suppression can change substantially depending on the threshold used in defining viral suppression. It is, therefore, important that viral suppression rates are standardized to the same threshold for the purpose of assessing progress towards UNAIDS targets. We have proposed a simple adjustment that allows this, and this has been incorporated into UNAIDS modelling software.

Impact of HIV type 1 DNA levels on spontaneous disease progression: a meta-analysis.

Several studies have reported the prognostic strength of HIV-1 DNA with variable results however. The aims of the current study were to estimate more accurately the ability of HIV-1 DNA to predict progression of HIV-1 disease toward acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death, and to compare the prognostic information obtained by HIV-1 DNA with that derived from plasma HIV-1 RNA. Eligible articles were identified through a comprehensive search of Medline, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, and Google Scholar. The analysis included univariate and bivariate random-effects models. The univariate meta-analysis of six studies involving 1074 participants showed that HIV-1 DNA was a strong predictive marker of AIDS [relative risk (RR): 3.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.88-4.82] and of all-cause mortality (RR: 3.49, 95% CI: 2.06-5.89). The bivariate model using the crude estimates of primary studies indicated that HIV-1 DNA was a significantly better predictor than HIV-1 RNA of either AIDS alone (ratio of RRs=1.47, 95% CI: 1.05-2.07) or of combined (AIDS or death) progression outcomes (ratio of RRs=1.51, 95% CI: 1.11-2.05). HIV-1 DNA is a strong predictor of HIV-1 disease progression. Moreover, there is some evidence that HIV-1 DNA might have better predictive value than plasma HIV-1 RNA.

CD4 cell eligibility thresholds: an analysis of the time to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-1 seroconverters.

BACKGROUND: WHO recommends initiating combination antiretroviral treatment at the minimal CD4 cell threshold of 350 cells/µl. In sub-Saharan Africa, the time for a recently infected patient to reach this threshold is unclear. METHOD: We estimated the probability of reaching different CD4 cell thresholds over time in the ANRS 1220 cohort of HIV-1 seroconverters in Côte d'Ivoire. CD4 cell slopes were estimated using a mixed linear model. Probabilities of crossing the 350 and 500 cells/µl CD4 cell thresholds were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2009, 304 recent seroconverters have been enrolled in the Primo-CI cohort (62% men, median baseline age 29 years and median time since the estimated date of seroconversion 9 months). The probability of having a first CD4 cell count below 500 cells/µl was 0.57, 0.72, 0.79 and 0.84 at study entry, 2, 4 and 6 years, respectively. For a first CD4 cell count below 350 cells/µl, these figures were 0.29, 0.40, 0.55 and 0.67. The time for 75% of patients to reach the threshold was 3.0 years for 500 cells/µl and 7.0 years for 350 cells/µl.

HIV-1 DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells is strongly associated with HIV-1 disease progression in recently infected West African adults.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between the HIV-1 DNA level in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) and disease progression in recently infected West African adults. METHODS: HIV-1 DNA levels were measured in the PBMCs of 200 adults in the French National Agency for Research on AIDS and viral Hepatitis (ANRS) 1220 cohort who had recently been infected with HIV-1. The association between baseline HIV-1 DNA levels and disease progression was analyzed using multivariate Cox regression. Disease progression was defined as the occurrence of any of the following outcomes: death, first World Health Organization stage 3-4 event, or CD4 count<200/mm. RESULTS: About 200 participants were followed for a median of 30 months. At baseline, the median time from HIV-1 seroconversion was 9 months, median CD4 T-cell count was 471/mm, median HIV-1 DNA level was 3.0 log10 copies/10 PBMCs, and median plasma HIV-1 RNA level was 4.6 log10 copies/mL. The 5-year probability of remaining free of any outcome was 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61 to 0.83] and 0.36 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.49) in patients with baseline HIV-1 DNA3.0 log10 copies/10 PBMCs, respectively (P<0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio of disease progression was 2.17 in patients with HIV-1 DNA>3.0 log10 copies/10 PBMCs compared with other patients (95% CI: 1.24 to 3.80, P=0.007). The only other factor associated with progression was follow-up CD4 count (hazard ratio=1.23 per 100 cells/mm decrease; 95% CI: 1.07 to 1.41, P=0.003). DISCUSSION: PBMC HIV-1 DNA level was strongly associated with HIV-1 disease progression, even after adjusting for HIV-1 RNA and CD4 T-cell count. Further studies should assess whether patients with high HIV-1 DNA levels should start antiretroviral therapy earlier than other patients.

Do tests devised to detect recent HIV-1 infection provide reliable estimates of incidence in Africa?

The objective of this study was to assess the performance of 4 biologic tests designed to detect recent HIV-1 infections in estimating incidence in West Africa (BED, Vironostika, Avidity, and IDE-V3). These tests were assessed on a panel of 135 samples from 79 HIV-1-positive regular blood donors from Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire, whose date of seroconversion was known (Agence Nationale de Recherches sur le SIDA et les Hépatites Virales 1220 cohort). The 135 samples included 26 from recently infected patients (< or =180 days), 94 from AIDS-free subjects with long-standing infection (>180 days), and 15 from patients with clinical AIDS. The performance of each assay in estimating HIV incidence was assessed through simulations. The modified commercial assays gave the best results for sensitivity (100% for both), and the IDE-V3 technique gave the best result for specificity (96.3%). In a context like Abidjan, with a 10% HIV-1 prevalence associated with a 1% annual incidence, the estimated test-specific annual incidence rates would be 1.2% (IDE-V3), 5.5% (Vironostika), 6.2% (BED), and 11.2% (Avidity). Most of the specimens falsely classified as incident cases were from patients infected for >180 days but <1 year. The authors conclude that none of the 4 methods could currently be used to estimate HIV-1 incidence routinely in Côte d'Ivoire but that further adaptations might enhance their accuracy.

Behavior assessment of blood donors facing the risk of HIV infection, Abidjan, Cotê D'Ivoire, 2001-2002.

Despite precautions taken to guarantee blood safety, in the National Blood Transfusion Center (CNTS) of Abidjan, about 30 regular blood donors are detected with HIV seroconversion each year, two-thirds of them men. A survey through face-to-face interviews was carried out at the CNTS of Abidjan from September 2001 to March 2002 among HIV-positive and HIV-negative regular blood donors, informed about their serologic status. HIV-negative regular blood donors informed about their serologic status since a median time of 67 months (n = 50) disclosed more risky behaviors such as multiple sexual partners (68%) than HIV-positive blood donors informed about their status (n = 112) since a median time of 35 months (41%) (P < 0.001). Condoms were systematically used by 17% of HIV-negative blood donors and 55% of HIV-positive blood donors (P < 0.001). Enhanced counseling and awareness could reduce in the future the number of cases of seroconversion among regular blood donors and improve their subsequent behavior. Blood donors who have unprotected sex with partners of unknown HIV serologic status and especially with casual partners are strongly exposed to HIV transmission and should be discouraged to continue giving blood, after adequate counseling.