Prevalence of unmet health care need in older adults in 83 countries: measuring progressing towards universal health coverage in the context of global population ageing.

Current measures for monitoring progress towards universal health coverage (UHC) do not adequately account for populations that do not have the same level of access to quality care services and/or financial protection to cover health expenses for when care is accessed. This gap in accounting for unmet health care needs may contribute to underutilization of needed services or widening inequalities. Asking people whether or not their needs for health care have been met, as part of a household survey, is a pragmatic way of capturing this information. This analysis examined responses to self-reported questions about unmet need asked as part of 17 health, social and economic surveys conducted between 2001 and 2019, representing 83 low-, middle- and high-income countries. Noting the large variation in questions and response categories, the results point to low levels (less than 2%) of unmet need reported in adults aged 60+ years in countries like Andorra, Qatar, Republic of Korea, Slovenia, Thailand and Viet Nam to rates of over 50% in Georgia, Haiti, Morocco, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe. While unique, these estimates are likely underestimates, and do not begin to address issues of poor quality of care as a barrier or contributing to unmet need in those who were able to access care. Monitoring progress towards UHC will need to incorporate estimates of unmet need if we are to reach universality and reduce health inequalities in older populations.

Investigating the Relationship between Parental Education, Asthma and Rhinitis in Children Using Path Analysis.

Parental socioeconomic position (SEP) is a known determinant of a child's health. We aimed to investigate whether a low parental education, as proxy of SEP, has a direct effect on physician-diagnosed asthma, current asthma and current allergic rhinitis in children, or whether associations are mediated by exposure to other personal or environmental risk factors. This study was a secondary data analysis of two cross-sectional studies conducted in Italy in 2006. Data from 2687 adolescents (10-14 years) were analyzed by a path analysis model using generalized structural equation modelling. Significant direct effects were found between parental education and family characteristics (number of children (coefficient = 0.6229, p < 0.001) and crowding index (1.1263, p < 0.001)) as well as with exposure to passive smoke: during pregnancy (maternal: 0.4697, p < 0.001; paternal: 0.4854, p < 0.001), during the first two years of children's life (0.5897, p < 0.001) and currently (0.6998, p < 0.001). An indirect effect of parental education was found on physician-diagnosed asthma in children mediated by maternal smoking during pregnancy (0.2350, p < 0.05) and on current allergic rhinitis mediated by early environmental tobacco smoke (0.2002; p < 0.05). These results suggest the importance of promotion of ad-hoc health policies for promoting smoking cessation, especially during pregnancy.

Time of onset and/or diagnosis of ADHD in European children: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Attention-Deficit/ Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common childhood neurobehavioral conditions. Symptoms related to this disorder cause a significant impairment in school tasks and in the activities of children's daily lives; an early diagnosis and appropriate treatment could almost certainly help improve their outcomes. The current study, part of the Models Of Child Health Appraised (MOCHA) project, aims to explore the age at which children experience the onset or diagnosis of ADHD in European countries. METHODS: A systematic review was done examining the studies reporting the age of onset/diagnosis (AO/AD) of ADHD in European countries (28 European Member States plus 2 European Economic Area countries), published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019. Of the 2276 identified studies, 44 met all the predefined criteria and were included in the review. RESULTS: The lowest mean AO in the children diagnosed with ADHD alone was 2.25 years and the highest was 7.5 years. It was 15.3 years in the children with ADHD and disruptive behaviour disorder. The mean AD ranges between 6.2 and 18.1 years. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that there is a wide variability in both the AO and AD of ADHD, and a too large distance between AO and AD. Since studies in the literature suggest that an early identification of ADHD symptoms may facilitate early referral and treatment, it would be important to understand the underlying reasons behind the wide variability found. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO registration: CRD42017070631 .

Quality of child healthcare in European countries: common measures across international databases and national agencies.

BACKGROUND: The evaluation of child healthcare is not yet widely explored, especially from a cross-country comparison perspective. The routine adoption of measures by national assessment agencies is under-investigated. Though the guiding principles developed at international level call for a child-centric multi-dimensional evaluation of child care, its feasibility is hampered by the availability of robust and harmonized data. METHODS: To explore the data availability, international databases (IDBs) were scrutinized and measures dealing with child health-related issues were collated. In parallel, an ad hoc questionnaire was administrated to 30 Country Agents (CAs) to gather measures routinely adopted at local level. To facilitate the comparison of measures, a three-level conceptual map was developed. RESULTS: The IDBs yielded at 207 measures that pertained mainly to non-health determinants of health, whereas the 352 measures obtained from CAs focused on process and outcome. A set of 33 common measures that related to immunization, morbidity and mortality were identified. CONCLUSIONS: A limited set of measures used both in IDBs and at national level identify common areas of concerns that certainly capture crucial issues with child prevention and health outcomes. However, they are far from satisfying a child-centric multi-dimensional approach to the evaluation of child well-being and well-becoming. There is room for improvement at both international and national levels. IDBs should include and harmonize measures that concern the provision of child-centric services and encompass physical, social and mental development. At the national level, efforts towards the inclusion of measures that concern non-health determinants of health should be pursued.

Effect of South Africa's interim mandatory salt reduction programme on urinary sodium excretion and blood pressure.

South Africa implemented legislation in June 2016 mandating maximum sodium (Na) levels in processed foods. A pre-post impact evaluation assessed whether the interim legislative approach reduced salt intake and blood pressure. Baseline Na intake was assessed in a nested cohort of the WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO-SAGE) Wave 2 (Aug-Dec 2015). 24-hour urine samples were collected in a random subsample (n = 1,299; of which n = 750 were considered valid (volume ≥ 300 mL and creatinine ≥ 4 mmol/day (women) or ≥ 6 mmol/day (men))). Follow-up urine samples were collected in Wave 3 (Jun 2018-Jun 2019), with replacements included for those lost to follow-up (n = 1,189; n = 548 valid). In those aged 18 - 49y, median salt intake was 7.8 (4.7, 12.0) g/day in W2 (n = 274), remaining similar in the W3 sample (7.7 (4.9, 11.3) g salt/day (n = 92); P = 0.569). In older adults (50 + y), median salt intake was 5.8 (4.0, 8.5) g/day (n = 467) in W2, and 6.0 (4.0, 8.6) g/day (n = 455) in W3 (P = 0.721). Controlling for differences in background characteristics, overall salt intake dropped by 1.15 g/day (P = 0.028). 24hr urinary Na concentrations from a countrywide South African sample suggest that salt intakes have dropped during the interim phase of mandatory sodium legislation. Further measurement of population level salt intake following stricter Na targets, enforced from June 2019, is necessary.

Quality of life improvement in children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder reduces family's strain: A structural equation model approach.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of the study is to analyse how the quality of life of children diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) impacts the relationship between disease severity and family burden. METHOD: The data collected by a longitudinal, observational study involving 1478 children with ADHD residing in 10 European countries (aged 6 to 18 years) were analysed to evaluate the relationships between ADHD severity, the children's quality of life and family burden. RESULTS: The disorder's severity directly and indirectly affected the children's health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and family burden. The degree of family burden was modulated by the children's HRQoL. CONCLUSIONS: One of the primary causes of the stress experienced by parents of children with ADHD is their perception of the child's reduced HRQoL and not the symptom severity itself. Efforts to minimize symptom severity cannot alone reduce family burden.

Trends observed in bilateral cerebral palsy during a thirty-year period: A cohort study with an ICF-based overview.

BACKGROUND: To describe trends observed across thirty years in demographic and clinical characteristics and rehabilitation of patients with bilateral cerebral palsy. METHODS: This retrospective study includes 464 (261 M and 203 F) inpatients with bilateral cerebral palsy, born from 1967 to 1997 and discharged from an outpatient rehabilitative facility from 1985 to 2015. Data concerning the health profile were collected from medical reports and organized in the domains of Body Functions and Structure; Activity and participation and Personal and Environmental factors as proposed in the International Classification of Functioning Disability and Health (ICF). The trend observed over the three birth decades was discussed. RESULTS: The duration of the rehabilitative treatment decreased across decades approximately by two years per decade (from an initial 16.2 yrs to 12.3 yrs). Across the decades the rate of quadriplegia decreased, whereas rates of diplegia increased; spasticity was the prevalent observed motor type for all decades. The most frequent musculoskeletal disorder involved the middle inferior part of the body; among comorbidities a steady decrease in psychiatric disorders was found. With respect to the first decade a slight improvement was observed in the gross motor functioning and in the hand dexterity. No particular trend was observed concerning communication abilities. An increase in the use of pharmacological and surgical treatments for motor symptoms was observed. CONCLUSION: This study presents and describes the functioning of a large sample of Italian patients with bilateral CP on the basis of the ICF framework and it discussed the trend observed across decades.

Efficacy of penile low-intensity shockwave treatment for erectile dysfunction: correlation with the severity of cavernous artery disease.

We analyzed the efficacy of penile low-intensity extracorporeal shockwave treatment for erectile dysfunction (ED) combined with cavernous artery disease (CAD). ED was evaluated by the International Index of Erectile Function, subdividing patients into mild and moderate/severe forms. CAD was assessed using penile color Doppler ultrasonography. Patients (n = 111) with a positive outcome after treatment, based upon the minimal clinically important difference of the International Index of ED, were followed up for 3 months and 6 months. We found a significant mean increase in the index of erectile function, with an overall improvement in hemodynamic parameters of the cavernous artery. In particular, 93.9% of the patients with mild ED without CAD responded to treatment and 72.7% resumed normal erectile function. Only 31.2% of the patients with moderate/severe ED and CAD responded to treatment, and none resumed normal erectile function. All patients with mild ED and no CAD maintained the effects of therapy after 3 months, while no patients with moderate/severe ED and CAD maintained the benefits of treatment after 3 months. Thus, patients with mild ED and no CAD have better and longer lasting responses to such treatment, with a higher probability of resuming normal erectile function than patients with moderate/severe ED and CAD.

A fully automated assay to detect the expression of pan-cytokeratins and of EML4-ALK fusion protein in circulating tumour cells (CTCs) predicts outcome of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients.

BACKGROUND: In advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) a recent meta-analysis confirms circulating tumour cells (CTCs) as an independent prognostic indicator of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). However, further investigations are necessary to predict and dynamically monitor the therapy in NSCLC patients using CTCs. To this aim, we combined the classical standard assay (SA) with an expanded cytokeratins profile (EA) and quantified the expression of EML4-ALK fusion protein in CTCs. METHODS: The CellSearch (CS) platform-first marked in vitro diagnostic use (IVD) from Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and "gold standard" for quantifying CTCs - detects EpCAM and cytokeratins (CKs) 8, 18, and 19. Since NSCLC shows different CKs profile, we customized the SA, to recognize CK 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13, 14, 18, and 19 (EA). Using both assays we designed a prospective, multi-center study, primarily aimed to enumerate CTCs in advanced NSCLC. Secondarily, we developed an integration of the EA to quantify the expression of EML4-ALK fusion protein in CTCs, and correlated them with PFS and OS. RESULTS: EA identified a significantly much more number of CTC-positive patients (115 out of 180) than SA (103 out of 192; Chi-square =4.0179, with 1 degrees of freedom, P=0.04502). Similar to SA, EA levels were still associated with patient' outcomes. Furthermore, the expression of EML4-ALK on CTCs allowed stratifying NSCLC patients according to a statistically significant difference in PFS. CONCLUSIONS: We proposed here two novel automated tests, to characterize the expression of specific molecules on CTCs. We demonstrated that these integrated assays are robust and actionable in prospective clinical studies, and in the future could allow clinicians to improve both choice and length of treatment in individual NSCLC patient.

Identifying co-occurrence and clustering of chronic diseases using latent class analysis: cross-sectional findings from SAGE South Africa Wave 2.

OBJECTIVES: To classify South African adults with chronic health conditions for multimorbidity (MM) risk, and to determine sociodemographic, anthropometric and behavioural factors associated with identified patterns of MM, using data from the WHO's Study on global AGEing and adult health South Africa Wave 2. DESIGN: Nationally representative (for ≥50-year-old adults) cross-sectional study. SETTING: Adults in South Africa between 2014 and 2015. PARTICIPANTS: 1967 individuals (men: 623 and women: 1344) aged ≥45 years for whom data on all seven health conditions and socioeconomic, demographic, behavioural, and anthropological information were available. MEASURES: MM latent classes. RESULTS: The prevalence of MM (coexistence of two or more non-communicable diseases (NCDs)) was 21%. The latent class analysis identified three groups namely: minimal MM risk (83%), concordant (hypertension and diabetes) MM (11%) and discordant (angina, asthma, chronic lung disease, arthritis and depression) MM (6%). Using the minimal MM risk group as the reference, female (relative risk ratio (RRR)=4.57; 95% CI (1.64 to 12.75); p =0.004) and older (RRR=1.08; 95% CI (1.04 to 1.12); p<0.001) participants were more likely to belong to the concordant MM group, while tobacco users (RRR=8.41; 95% CI (1.93 to 36.69); p=0.005) and older (RRR=1.09; 95% CI (1.03 to 1.15); p=0.002) participants had a high likelihood of belonging to the discordant MM group. CONCLUSION: NCDs with similar pathophysiological risk profiles tend to cluster together in older people. Risk factors for MM in South African adults include sex, age and tobacco use.

Variability in the assessment of children's primary healthcare in 30 European countries.

BACKGROUND: The high variability in the types and number of measures adopted to evaluate childcare across European countries makes it necessary to investigate country practices to identify trends in setting national priorities in the assessment of child well-being. OBJECTIVE: This paper intends to investigate country practices under the lens of variability to explore possible trends in setting national priority in the evaluation of childcare. In particular, it analyses variability considering to what extent this depends on the tendency of adopting a broad vision (i.e. selecting measures for a larger variety of aspects) or whether this is influenced by the choice of adopting an in-depth approach (i.e. using more measures to analyse a specific aspect). METHODS: An ad hoc questionnaire was administered to a national expert in each country and yielded 352 measures. To analyse variability, the breadth in the number of aspects considered was explored using a convergence index, while the depth in the distribution of measures in each aspect was investigated by computing a coefficient of variation. Countries were grouped by adopting a hierarchical clustering approach. RESULTS: There is a high variability across countries in the selection of measures that cover different aspects of childcare. Preferences in the distribution of measures are significant even at the domain level and in countries that use a limited number of measures and become more evident at the category and sub-category levels. The statistical analysis clusters countries in four main groups and two outliers. The in-depth distribution of measures focused on a specific aspect shows a homogeneous pattern, with the identification of two main groups of countries. CONCLUSIONS: A limited set of measures are shared across countries hampering a robust comparison of paediatric models. The selection of measures shows that the evaluation is closely related to national priorities as resulting from the number and types of measures adopted. Moreover, a range of a reasonable number of measures can be hypothesized to address the quality of childcare under a multi-dimensional perspective.

Salt-reduction strategies may compromise salt iodization programs: Learnings from South Africa and Ghana.

OBJECTIVES: Universal salt iodization has been adopted by many countries to address iodine deficiency. More recently, salt-reduction strategies have been widely implemented to meet global salt intake targets of <5 g/d. Compatibility of the two policies has yet to be demonstrated. This study compares urinary iodine excretion (UIE) according to 24-h urinary sodium excretion, between South Africa (SA) and Ghana; both countries have implemented universal salt iodization, but in Ghana no salt-reduction legislation has been implemented. METHODS: Participants from the World Health Organization's Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health Wave 3, with survey and valid 24-h urinary data (Ghana, n = 495; SA, n = 707), comprised the sample. Median 24-h UIE was compared across salt intake categories of <5, 5-9 and >9 g/d. RESULTS: In Ghana, median sodium excretion indicated a salt intake of 10.7 g/d (interquartile range [IQR] = 7.6), and median UIE was 182.4 µg/L (IQR = 162.5). In SA, both values were lower: median salt = 5.6 g/d (IQR = 5.0), median UIE = 100.2 µg/L (IQR = 129.6). UIE differed significantly across salt intake categories (P < 0.001) in both countries, with positive correlations observed in both-Ghana: r = 0.1501, P < 0.0011; South Africa: r = 0.4050, P < 0.0001. Participants with salt intakes <9 g/d in SA did not meet the World Health Organization's recommended iodine intake of 150 µg/d, but this was not the case in Ghana. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring and surveillance of iodine status is recommended in countries that have introduced salt-reduction strategies, in order to prevent reemergence of iodine deficiency.

Determinants of change in blood pressure in Ghana: Longitudinal data from WHO-SAGE Waves 1-3.

The prevalence of hypertension is increasing in low- and middle-income countries, however statistics are generally derived from cross sectional surveys that utilize different methodologies and population samples. We investigated blood pressure (BP) changes over 11-12 years in a large cohort of adults aged 50 years and older (n = 820) included in the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO-SAGE Ghana) Wave 1 (2007/8) with follow up in Wave 3 (2019). Participants' BP were measured in triplicate and a survey completed at both time points. Survey instruments collected information on sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle, health behaviors and chronic conditions. While no significant difference was found in systolic BP between Waves 1 and 3, diastolic BP decreased by 9.7mmHg (mean = 88.6, 15.4 to 78.9, 13.6 respectively) and pulse pressure increased by 9.5mmHg (44.8, 13.7 to 54.3, 14.1). Awareness of hypertension increased by 37%, from (20% to 57%), but no differences were found for the proportion of hypertensives receiving treatment nor those that had controlled BP. Mixed effects modelling showed a decrease in diastolic BP was associated with increasing age, living in rural areas and having health insurance. Factors associated with an increased awareness of hypertension were residing in urban areas, having health insurance and increasing body mass index. While diagnosis of hypertension has improved over time in Ghana, there is an ongoing need to improve its treatment in older adults.

Survey of doctors' perception of professional values.

BACKGROUND: New challenges in the medical field of the third millennium emphasise the "humanization of medicine" leading to a redefinition of doctors' values, limits and roles. The study aims to assess whether there are different personality dimensions of physicians in relation to their perception of professional values and public expectations. METHODS: A questionnaire on the perception of professional values and the opinion on work in the medical field, work relationships and public expectations was administered to 374 doctors attending Continuing Medical Education courses. RESULTS: Two personality dimensions were identified: the first dimension (which we termed "Performance Attainment") is associated preeminently with values of competence, advocacy, confidentiality, spirit of enquiry, integrity, responsibility and commitment; the second dimension (which we called "Personal Involvement") focuses on concern and compassion. The doctors that have more difficulty accepting judgements on their activity are those who think that "Performance attainment" is less important (ß = 6.01; p-value = 0.007). Instead, the doctors who believe "public expectation of the health system" is not high enough, tend to think that "Performance Attainment" is more important (ß = -6.08; p-value = 0.024). The less importance is given to the values of "Personal Involvement", the less is the doctor's perception of having a leading role in respect to other health professionals (ß = -2.37; p-value = 0.018). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that there are two different attitudes in terms of recognition and selection of the essential values to better practice the medical profession. Whether the doctors attach more importance to one dimension or the other, they do not differ in our analysis for how they answered the questions about relationships with patients, colleagues or family commitments in the questionnaire, even if they work in different areas. This suggests that in our research there is no single personal attitude that characterizes "a good doctor".

Salt and potassium intake among adult Ghanaians: WHO-SAGE Ghana Wave 3.

Though Ghana has high hypertension prevalence, the country lacks current national salt consumption data required to build and enhance advocacy for salt reduction. We explored the characteristics of a randomly selected sub sample that had valid urine collection, along with matched survey, anthropometric and BP data (n = 839, mean age = 60y), from the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO-SAGE), Ghana Wave 3, n = 3053). We also investigated the relationship between salt intake and blood pressure (BP) among the cohort. BP was measured in triplicate and 24 h urine was collected for the determination of urinary sodium (Na), potassium (K), creatinine (Cr) and iodine levels. Hypertension prevalence was 44.3%. Median salt intake was 8.3 g/day, higher in women compared to men (8.6, interquartile range (IQR) 7.5 g/day vs 7.5, IQR 7.4 g/day, p <  0.01), younger participants (18-49 y) compared to older ones (50+ y) (9.7, IQR 7.9 g/day vs 8.1, IQR 7.1 g/day, p <  0.01) and those with higher Body Mass Index (BMI) (> 30 kg/m2) compared to a healthy BMI (18.5-24.9 kg/m2) (10.04, IQR 5.1 g/day vs 6.2, IQR 5.6 g/day, p <  0.01). More than three quarters (77%, n = 647) of participants had salt intakes above the WHO maximum recommendation of 5 g/d, and nearly two thirds (65%, n = 548) had daily K intakes below the recommended level of 90 mmol. Dietary sodium to potassium (Na: K) ratios above 2 mmol/mmol were positively associated with increasing BP with age. Population-based interventions to reduce salt intake and increase K consumption are needed.

Impact of overweight and obesity on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years and lifetime costs in the adult population of Ghana.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have revealed the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated health effects among ageing adults in resource poor countries. However, no study has examined the long-term and economic impact of overweight and obesity in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we quantified the long-term impact of overweight and obesity on life expectancy (LE), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total direct healthcare costs. METHODS: A Markov simulation model projected health and economic outcomes associated with three categories of body mass index (BMI): healthy weight (18.5≤BMI <25.0); overweight (25.0≤BMI < 30.0) and obese (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2) in simulated adult cohorts over a 50-year time horizon from age fifty. Costs were estimated from government and patient perspectives, discounted 3% annually and reported in 2017 US$. Mortality rates from Ghanaian lifetables were adjusted by BMI-specific all-cause mortality HRs. Published input data were used from the 2014/2015 Ghana WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health data. Internal and external validity were assessed. RESULTS: From age 50 years, average (95% CI) remaining LE for females were 25.6 (95% CI: 25.4 to 25.8), 23.5 (95% CI: 23.3 to 23.7) and 21.3 (95% CI: 19.6 to 21.8) for healthy weight, overweight and obesity, respectively. In males, remaining LE were healthy weight (23.0; 95% CI: 22.8 to 23.2), overweight (20.7; 95% CI: 20.5 to 20.9) and obesity (17.6; 95% CI: 17.5 to 17.8). In females, QALYs for healthy weight were 23.0 (95% CI: 22.8 to 23.2), overweight, 21.0 (95% CI: 20.8 to 21.2) and obesity, 19.0 (95% CI: 18.8 to 19.7). The discounted total costs per female were US$619 (95% CI: 616 to 622), US$1298 (95% CI: 1290 to 1306) and US$2057 (95% CI: 2043 to 2071) for healthy weight, overweight and obesity, respectively. QALYs and costs were lower in males. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obesity have substantial health and economic impacts, hence the urgent need for cost-effective preventive strategies in the Ghanaian population.

Predicting steady-state endoxifen plasma concentrations in breast cancer patients by CYP2D6 genotyping or phenotyping. Which approach is more reliable?

In previous studies, steady-state Z-endoxifen plasma concentrations (ENDOss) correlated with relapse-free survival in women on tamoxifen (TAM) treatment for breast cancer. ENDOss also correlated significantly with CYP2D6 genotype (activity score) and CYP2D6 phenotype (dextromethorphan test). Our aim was to ascertain which method for assessing CYP2D6 activity is more reliable in predicting ENDOss. The study concerned 203 Caucasian women on tamoxifen-adjuvant therapy (20 mg q.d.). Before starting treatment, CYP2D6 was genotyped (and activity scores computed), and the urinary log(dextromethorphan/dextrorphan) ratio [log(DM/DX)] was calculated after 15 mg of oral dextromethorphan. Plasma concentrations of TAM, N-desmethyl-tamoxifen (ND-TAM), Z-4OH-tamoxifen (4OH-TAM) and ENDO were assayed 1, 4, and 8 months after first administering TAM. Multivariable regression analysis was used to identify the clinical and laboratory variables predicting log-transformed ENDOss (log-ENDOss). Genotype-derived CYP2D6 phenotypes (PM, IM, NM, EM) and log(DM/DX) correlated independently with log-ENDOss. Genotype-phenotype concordance was almost complete only for poor metabolizers, whereas it emerged that 34% of intermediate, normal, and ultrarapid metabolizers were classified differently based on log(DM/DX). Multivariable regression analysis selected log(DM/DX) as the best predictor, with patients' age, weak inhibitor use, and CYP2D6 phenotype decreasingly important: log-ENDOss = 0.162 - log(DM/DX) × 0.170 + age × 0.0063 - weak inhibitor use × 0.250 + IM × 0.105 + (NM + UM) × 0.210; (R2  = 0.51). In conclusion, log(DM/DX) seems superior to genotype-derived CYP2D6 phenotype in predicting ENDOss.

Annual transition probabilities of overweight and obesity in older adults: Evidence from World Health Organization Study on global AGEing and adult health.

Overweight/obesity is becoming increasingly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa including Ghana. However, transition probabilities, an essential component to develop cost-effective measures for weight management is lacking in this population. We estimated annual transition probabilities between three body mass index (BMI) categories: normal weight (BMI ≥18.5 and <25.0 kg/m2), overweight (BMI ≥25.0 and <30.0 kg/m2), and obesity (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2), among older adults aged ≥50 years in Ghana. Data were used from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 1496 (44.3% females) older adults in both Waves 1 (2007/8) and 2 (2014/15) of the Ghana WHO SAGE. A multistage Markov model was used to estimate annual transition probabilities. We further examined the impact of specific socio-economic factors on the transition probabilities. At baseline, 22.8% were overweight and 11.1% were obese. The annual transition probability was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.4%, 4.8%) from normal weight to overweight, 11.1% (95% CI: 9.5%, 13.0%) from overweight to normal weight and 4.9% (95% CI: 3.8%, 6.2%) from overweight to obesity. For obese individuals, the probability of remaining obese, transitioning to overweight and completely reverting to normal weight was 90.2% (95% CI: 87.7%, 92.3%), 9.2% (95% CI: 7.2%, 11.6%) and 0.6% (95% CI: 0.4%, 0.8%) respectively. Being female, aged 50-65 years, urban residence, having high education and high wealth were associated with increased probability of transitioning into the overweight or obese categories. Our findings highlight the difficulty in transitioning away from obesity, especially among females. The estimated transition probabilities will be essential in health economic simulation models to determine sustainable weight management interventions.