A simple method for confidence rating of eutrophication status classifications.

We report the development of a methodology for assessing confidence in ecological status classifications. The method presented here can be considered as a secondary assessment, supporting the primary assessment of eutrophication or ecological status. The confidence assessment is based on scoring the quality of the indicators on which the primary assessment is made. This represents a first step towards linking status classification with information regarding their accuracy and precision. Applied to an existing data set used for assessment of eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea (including the Kattegat and Danish Straits) we demonstrate that confidence in the assessment is Good or High in 149 out of 189 areas assessed (79%). Contrary to our expectations, assessments of the open parts of the Baltic Sea have a higher confidence than assessments of coastal waters. We also find that in open waters of the Baltic Sea, some biological indicators have a higher confidence than indicators representing physical-chemical conditions. In coastal waters, phytoplankton, submerged aquatic vegetation and indicators of physical-chemical conditions have a higher confidence than indicators of the quality of benthic invertebrate communities. Our analyses also show that the perceived weaknesses of eutrophication assessments are due more to Low confidence in reference conditions and acceptable deviations, rather than in the monitoring data.

Effect of climate change on fluxes of nitrogen from the Tovdal River basin, Norway, to adjoining marine areas.

The mass transport model TEOTIL was used to project nitrate (NO3) fluxes from the Tovdal River basin, southernmost Norway, given four scenarios of climate change. Forests, uplands, and open water currently account for 90% of the NO3 flux. Climate scenarios for 2071-2100 suggest increased temperature by 2-4 degrees C and precipitation by 3-11%. Climate experiments and long-term monitoring were used to estimate future rates of nitrogen (N) leaching. More water will run through the terrestrial catchments during the winter but less will run in the spring. The annual NO3 flux from the Tovdal River to the adjoining Topdalsfjord is projected to remain unchanged, but with more NO3 delivered in the winter and less in the spring. Algal blooms in coastal waters can be expected to occur earlier in the year. Major sources of uncertainty are in the long-term fate of N stored in soil organic matter and the impacts of forest management.

Modelling the long-term fate of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) in the Grenland Fjords, Norway.

The development and application of a predictive fate model (DIG--Dioxins in Grenland) for polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/F) in the marine environment of the Norwegian Grenland Fjords are described. The objective of the modelling study was to predict long-term future changes in PCDD/F concentrations in the fjord following the cessation of point source emissions. To assess the reliability of the model, the model performance was evaluated by comparing model results to field measurements collected between 1989 and 2001. Model bias (defined as the ratio of median predicted concentration and median observed concentration) for prediction of concentrations for three different PCDD/F congeners (2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), 1,2,3,6,7,8-hexadibenzofuran (HxCDF) and octachlorodibenzofuran (OCDF)) in the fjord was between 0.53 and 24, which was deemed a satisfactory result for models of this type. The model was run to determine the dynamic change in concentrations between 1950 and 2050 and to examine the key fluxes of PCDD/Fs in the fjord. Between 1990 and 2050 sediment concentrations of TCDD, HxCDF and OCDF were predicted to fall at fairly constant but gradually slowing rates to concentrations 52, 98 and 88 times lower, respectively, of their 1990 values. Losses of PCDD/Fs from the bottom sediments in the Frierfjord were predicted to be a combination of sediment burial and net resuspension to the water column. Sediment burial was shown to be relatively more important in the fjord's deep-water sediments, whereas resuspension was relatively more important in the shallow sediments. For the shallower sediments, a net water-to-sediment flux was predicted for all three congeners up until the mid-1970s, when emission reductions were initiated, and thereafter a net sediment-to-water flux was predicted. The shallow sediments acted as net sources to the deeper sediments and to the fishing areas in the outer fjord.