Analysing Normative Influences on the Prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among 0-14 Years Old Girls in Senegal: A Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Regression Approach.

BACKGROUND: Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is a harmful traditional practice affecting the health and rights of women and girls. This has raised global attention on the implementation of strategies to eliminate the practice in conformity with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). A recent study on the trends of FGM/C among Senegalese women (aged 15-49) which examined how individual- and community-level factors affected the practice, found significant regional variations in the practice. However, the dynamics of the practice among girls (0-14 years old) is not fully understood. This paper attempts to fill this knowledge gap by investigating normative influences in the persistence of the practice among Senegalese girls, identify and map 'hotspots'. METHODS: We do so by using a class of Bayesian hierarchical geospatial modelling approach implemented in R statistical software (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) using R2BayesX package. We employed Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for full Bayesian inference, while model fit and complexity assessment utilised deviance information criterion (DIC). RESULTS: We found that a girl's probability of cutting was higher if her mother was cut, supported FGM/C continuation or believed that the practice was a religious obligation. In addition, living in rural areas and being born to a mother from Diola, Mandingue, Soninke or Poular ethnic group increased a girl's likelihood of being cut. The hotspots identified included Matam, Tambacounda and Kolda regions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings offer a clearer picture of the dynamics of FGM/C practice among Senegalese girls and prove useful in informing evidence-based intervention policies designed to achieve the abandonment of the practice in Senegal.

Evaluating changes in the prevalence of female genital mutilation/cutting among 0-14 years old girls in Nigeria using data from multiple surveys: A novel Bayesian hierarchical spatio-temporal model.

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C) is considered a public health and human rights concern, mainly concentrated in Africa, and has been targeted for elimination under the sustainable development goals. Interventions aimed at ending the practice often rely on data from household surveys which employ complex designs leading to outcomes that are not totally independent, thus requiring advanced statistical techniques. Combining data from multiple surveys within robust statistical framework holds promise to provide more precise estimates due to increased sample size, and accurately identify 'hotspots' and allow for assessment of changes over time. In this study, rich datasets from six (6) successive waves of the Nigeria Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys undertaken between 2003 and 2016/17, were combined and analyzed in order to better assess changes in the likelihood and prevalence of FGM/C among 0-14-year old girls in Nigeria. We used Bayesian hierarchical regression models which explicitly accounted for the inherent spatial and temporal autocorrelations within the data while simultaneously adjusting for variations due to different survey methods and the effects of linear and non-linear covariates. Parameters were estimated using Markov chain Mote Carlo techniques and model fit assessments were based on Deviance Information Criterion. Results show that prevalence of FGM/C among 0-14 years old girls in Nigeria varied over time and across geographical locations and peaked in 2008 with a shift from South to North. A girl was more likely to be cut if her mother was cut, supported FGM/C continuation, or had no higher education. The effects of mother's age, wealth and type of residence (urban-rural) were no longer significant in 2016. These results reflect the gains of interventions over the years, but also echo the belief that FGM/C is a social norm thus requiring tailored all-inclusive interventions for the total abandonment of FGM/C in Nigeria.

A Spatial Analysis of the Prevalence of Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting among 0-14-Year-Old Girls in Kenya.

Female genital mutilation/cutting (FGM/C), also known as female circumcision, is a global public health and human rights problem affecting women and girls. Several concerted efforts to eliminate the practice are underway in several sub-Saharan African countries where the practice is most prevalent. Studies have reported variations in the practice with some countries experiencing relatively slow decline in prevalence. This study investigates the roles of normative influences and related risk factors (e.g., geographic location) on the persistence of FGM/C among 0-14 years old girls in Kenya. The key objective is to identify and map hotspots (high risk regions). We fitted spatial and spatio-temporal models in a Bayesian hierarchical regression framework on two datasets extracted from successive Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys (KDHS) from 1998 to 2014. The models were implemented in R statistical software using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques for parameters estimation, while model fit and assessment employed deviance information criterion (DIC) and effective sample size (ESS). Results showed that daughters of cut women were highly likely to be cut. Also, the likelihood of a girl being cut increased with the proportion of women in the community (1) who were cut (2) who supported FGM/C continuation, and (3) who believed FGM/C was a religious obligation. Other key risk factors included living in the northeastern region; belonging to the Kisii or Somali ethnic groups and being of Muslim background. These findings offered a clearer picture of the dynamics of FGM/C in Kenya and will aid targeted interventions through bespoke policymaking and implementations.

Framework for Evaluating the Health Impact of the Scale-Up of Malaria Control Interventions on All-Cause Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Concerted efforts from national and international partners have scaled up malaria control interventions, including insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, diagnostics, prompt and effective treatment of malaria cases, and intermittent preventive treatment during pregnancy in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This scale-up warrants an assessment of its health impact to guide future efforts and investments; however, measuring malaria-specific mortality and the overall impact of malaria control interventions remains challenging. In 2007, Roll Back Malaria's Monitoring and Evaluation Reference Group proposed a theoretical framework for evaluating the impact of full-coverage malaria control interventions on morbidity and mortality in high-burden SSA countries. Recently, several evaluations have contributed new ideas and lessons to strengthen this plausibility design. This paper harnesses that new evaluation experience to expand the framework, with additional features, such as stratification, to examine subgroups most likely to experience improvement if control programs are working; the use of a national platform framework; and analysis of complete birth histories from national household surveys. The refined framework has shown that, despite persisting data challenges, combining multiple sources of data, considering potential contributions from both fundamental and proximate contextual factors, and conducting subnational analyses allows identification of the plausible contributions of malaria control interventions on malaria morbidity and mortality.

Missed opportunities for family planning: an analysis of pregnancy risk and contraceptive method use among postpartum women in 21 low- and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze data from recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) conducted in 21 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine patterns of interpregnancy intervals, unmet need, pregnancy risk and family planning method use and method mix among women 0-23 months postpartum. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of postpartum women aged 15-49 years in 22 DHS surveys from 21 LMICs conducted between 2005 and 2012. We applied an adapted unmet need definition for postpartum women to look at prospective fertility preferences. We also constructed a new composite pregnancy risk indicator for postpartum women who have been sexually active since their last birth. RESULTS: In 9 of 22 surveys, 50% or more of nonfirst births occur at interpregnancy intervals that are too short. Overall prospective unmet need for family planning by postpartum women has not changed demonstrably since a 2001 analysis and is universally high: 61% of all postpartum women across the 21 countries have an unmet need for family planning. In 10 of 22 surveys, pregnancy risk rises steadily throughout the 2 years after birth. In the remaining 12 surveys, the risk of pregnancy peaks at 6-11 months after birth. Even when postpartum women are using family planning, they rely overwhelmingly on short-acting methods (51-96% in 21 of 22 surveys). CONCLUSION: Our approach of estimating pregnancy risk by postpartum timing confirms a high probability for pregnancies to be less than optimally spaced within 2 years of a prior birth and suggests that special consideration is needed to effectively reach this population with the right messages and services. IMPLICATIONS: Using recent, multicountry data for women within 2 years postpartum in LMICs, this paper updates existing estimates of high prospective unmet need for family planning and presents a new composite pregnancy risk analysis based on postpartum women's actual practices to demonstrate the magnitude of missed opportunities for programmatic intervention for the postpartum population.