Temporal trend of diarrhea morbidity rate with climate change: Egypt as a case study.

Many studies have detected a relationship between diarrhea morbidity rates with the changes in precipitation, temperature, floods, droughts, water shortage, etc. But, most of the authors were cautious in their studies, because of the lack of empirical climate-health data and there were large uncertainties in the future projections. The study aimed to refine the link between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in some Egyptian governorates representative of the three Egyptian geographical divisions with the meteorological changes that occurred in the 2006-2016 period for which the medical data are available, as a case study. Medical raw data was collected from the Information Centre Department of the Egyptian Ministry of Health and Population. The meteorological data of temperature and precipitation extremes were defined as data outside the 10th-90th percentile range of values of the period of study, and their analysis was done using a methodology similar to the one recommended by the WMO and integrated in the CLIMDEX software. Relationships between the morbidity rates of diarrhea in seven Egyptian governorates and the meteorological changes that occurred in the period 2006 to 2016 were analyzed using multiple linear regression analysis to identify the most effective meteorological factor that affects the trend of morbidity rate of diarrhea in each governorate. Statistical analysis revealed that some meteorological parameters can be used as predictors for morbidity rates of diarrhea in Cairo, Alexandria, and Gharbia, but not in Aswan, Behaira, and Dakahlia where the temporal evolution cannot be related with meteorology. In Red Sea, there was no temporal trend and no significant relationships between the diarrhea morbidity rate and meteorological parameters. The predictor meteorological parameters for morbidity rates of diarrhea were found to be depending on the geographic locations and infrastructures in these governorates. It was concluded that the meteorological data that can be used as predictors for the morbidity rate of diarrhea is depending on the geographical location and infrastructures of the target location. The socioeconomic levels as well as the infrastructures in the governorate must be considered confounders in future studies.

Validation of RegCM-CHEM4 model by comparison with surface measurements in the Greater Cairo (Egypt) megacity.

The densely populated Greater Cairo (GC) region suffers from severe air quality issues caused by high levels of anthropogenic activities, such as motorized traffic, industries, and agricultural biomass burning events, along with natural sources of particulate matter, such as wind erosion of arid surfaces. Surface-measured concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and ozone (O3) and its precursor's gases (nitrogen dioxide, NO2; carbon monoxide, CO) were obtained for the GC region. The PM10 concentrations were found to exceed remarkably the Egyptian guidelines (150 µg/m3). These high levels of PM10 were recorded throughout 68% of the period of measurement in some industrial areas (El-Kolaly). The measured data of pollutants were used for both the evaluation of environmental pollution levels and the validation of the online-integrated regional climate chemistry model "RegCM-CHEM4." Calculation of the bias between the model results and the measured data was used to evaluate the model performance in order to assess its ability in reproducing the chemical species over the area. The model was found to reproduce the seasonal cycle of the pollutants successfully, but with a large underestimation of the PM10 values. Validation of the RegCM-CHEM4 indicated that the emission inventories of mobile sources and anthropogenic activities need to be improved especially with respect to local and regional activities in order to enhance air quality simulations over the GC region.