Projecting wheat demand in China and India for 2030 and 2050: Implications for food security.

Introduction: The combined populations of China and India were 2.78 billion in 2020, representing 36% of the world population (7.75 billion). Wheat is the second most important staple grain in both China and India. In 2019, the aggregate wheat consumption in China was 96.4 million ton and in India it was 82.5 million ton, together it was more than 35% of the world's wheat that year. In China, in 2050, the projected population will be 1294-1515 million, and in India, it is projected to be 14.89-1793 million, under the low and high-fertility rate assumptions. A question arises as to, what will be aggregate demand for wheat in China and India in 2030 and 2050? Methods: Applying the Vector Error Correction model estimation process in the time series econometric estimation setting, this study projected the per capita and annual aggregate wheat consumptions of China and India during 2019-2050. In the process, this study relies on agricultural data sourced from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United States (FAO) database (FAOSTAT), as well as the World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) data catalog. The presence of unit root in the data series are tested by applying the augmented Dickey-Fuller test; Philips-Perron unit root test; Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin test, and Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test allowing for a single break in intercept and/or trend. The test statistics suggest that a natural log transformation and with the first difference of the variables provides stationarity of the data series for both China and India. The Zivot-Andrews Unit Root test, however, suggested that there is a structural break in urban population share and GDP per capita. To tackle the issue, we have included a year dummy and two multiplicative dummies in our model. Furthermore, the Johansen cointegration test suggests that at least one variable in both data series were cointegrated. These tests enable us to apply Vector Error Correction (VEC) model estimation procedure. In estimation the model, the appropriate number of lags of the variables is confirmed by applying the "varsoc" command in Stata 17 software interface. The estimated yearly per capita wheat consumption in 2030 and 2050 from the VEC model, are multiplied by the projected population in 2030 and 2050 to calculate the projected aggregate wheat demand in China and India in 2030 and 2050. After projecting the yearly per capita wheat consumption (KG), we multiply with the projected population to get the expected consumption demand. Results: This study found that the yearly per capita wheat consumption of China will increase from 65.8 kg in 2019 to 76 kg in 2030, and 95 kg in 2050. In India, the yearly per capita wheat consumption will increase to 74 kg in 2030 and 94 kg in 2050 from 60.4 kg in 2019. Considering the projected population growth rates under low-fertility assumptions, aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by more than 13% in 2030 and by 28% in 2050. Under the high-fertility rate assumption, however the aggregate wheat consumption of China will increase by 18% in 2030 and nearly 50% in 2050. In the case of India, under both low and high-fertility rate assumptions, aggregate wheat demand in India will increase by 32-38% in 2030 and by 70-104% in 2050 compared to 2019 level of consumption. Discussions: Our results underline the importance of wheat in both countries, which are the world's top wheat producers and consumers, and suggest the importance of research and development investments to maintain sufficient national wheat grain production levels to meet China and India's domestic demand. This is critical both to ensure the food security of this large segment of the world populace, which also includes 23% of the total population of the world who live on less than US $1.90/day, as well as to avoid potential grain market destabilization and price hikes that arise in the event of large import demands.

Progress and Prospects of Developing Climate Resilient Wheat in South Asia Using Modern Pre-Breeding Methods.

Developing climate-resilient wheat is a priority for South Asia since the effect of climate change will be pronounced on the major crops that are staple to the region. South Asia must produce >400 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat by 2050 to meet the demand. However, the current average yield <3 t/ha is not sufficient to meet the requirement. In this review, we are addressing how pre-breeding methods in wheat can address the gap in grain yield as well as reduce the bottleneck of genetic diversity. Physiological pre-breeding which incorporates screening of diverse germplasm from gene banks for physiological and agronomic traits, the strategic crossing of complementary traits, high throughput phenotyping, molecular markers-based generation advancement, genomic prediction, and validation of high-value heat and drought tolerant lines to South Asia can help to alleviate the drastic effect of climate change on wheat production. There are several gene banks, if utilized well, can play a major role in breeding for climate-resilient wheat. CIMMYT's wheat physiological pre-breeding has delivered several hundred lines via the Stress Adapted Trait Yield Nursery (SATYN) to the NARS in many South Asian countries; India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Iran. Some of these improved germplasms have resulted in varieties for farmer's field. We conclude the review by pointing out the importance of collaborative interdisciplinary translational research to alleviate the effects of climate change on wheat production in South Asia.

COVID-19 induced economic loss and ensuring food security for vulnerable groups: Policy implications from Bangladesh.

At present nearly half of the world's population is under some form of government restriction to curb the spread of COVID-19, an extremely contagious disease. In Bangladesh, in the wake of five deaths and 48 infections from COVID-19, between March 24 and May 30, 2020, the government imposed a nationwide lockdown. While this lockdown restricted the spread of COVID-19, in the absence of effective support, it can generate severe food and nutrition insecurity for daily wage-based workers. Of the 61 million employed labor force in Bangladesh, nearly 35% of them are paid on a daily basis. This study examines the food security and welfare impacts of the COVID-19 induced lockdown on daily wage workers both in the farm and nonfarm sectors in Bangladesh. Using information from more than 50,000 respondents complied with the 2016-17 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) in Bangladesh, this study estimates daily wage rates as Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 272.2 in the farm sector and BDT 361.5 in the nonfarm sector. Using the estimated daily wage earnings, this study estimates that a one-day complete lockdown generates a US$64.2 million equivalent economic loss only considering the wage loss of the daily wage workers. After estimating the daily per capita food expenditure separately for farm and nonfarm households, this study estimates a minimum compensation package for the daily wage-based farm and nonfarm households around the US $ 1 per day per household to ensure minimum food security for the daily wage-based worker households.

Do market shocks generate gender-differentiated impacts? Policy implications from a quasi-natural experiment in Bangladesh.

Using information collected from two rounds of household income and expenditure surveys (HIES 2005 and 2010) in Bangladesh, this study examines the gender-differentiated impacts of the commodity price hikes in 2008 on food and non-food consumption behavior based on the sex of the household head. Applying the difference-in-difference estimation method in a quasi-natural experiment setting, this study demonstrates that, in general, commodity price hikes more adversely affect female-headed households. In 2010, they reduced expenditures on food and non-food items, and particularly cereal, non-cereal, and education expenditures, more than male-headed households did. This study also shows that the impacts of commodity price hikes were lower on the female-headed households headed by educated females as well as those who owned larger pieces of land and received remittances. These subsets were not affected by the commodity price shocks as examined in 2010. The findings strongly suggest that the provision of both human and physical capital is instrumental in developing countries to empower female-headed households to enhance their buffering capacity to withstand economic shocks.

Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.

New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia-its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5-10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89-1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132-264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.

Factors associated with small-scale agricultural machinery adoption in Bangladesh: Census findings.

There is strong advocacy for agricultural machinery appropriate for smallholder farmers in South Asia. Such 'scale-appropriate' machinery can increase returns to land and labour, although the still substantial capital investment required can preclude smallholder ownership. Increasing machinery demand has resulted in relatively well-developed markets for rental services for tillage, irrigation, and post-harvest operations. Many smallholders thereby access agricultural machinery that may have otherwise been cost prohibitive to purchase through fee-for-service arrangements, though opportunity for expansion remains. To more effectively facilitate the development and investment in scale-appropriate machinery, there is a need to better understand the factors associated with agricultural machinery purchases and service provision. This paper first reviews Bangladesh's historical policy environment that facilitated the development of agricultural machinery markets. It then uses recent Bangladesh census data from 814,058 farm households to identify variables associated with the adoption of the most common smallholder agricultural machinery - irrigation pumps, threshers, and power tillers (mainly driven by two-wheel tractors). Multinomial probit model results indicate that machinery ownership is positively associated with household assets, credit availability, electrification, and road density. These findings suggest that donors and policy makers should focus not only on short-term projects to boost machinery adoption. Rather, sustained emphasis on improving physical and civil infrastructure and services, as well as assuring credit availability, is also necessary to create an enabling environment in which the adoption of scale-appropriate farm machinery is most likely.