Comparative analysis of thermal indices for modeling cold and heat stress in US dairy systems.

Quantifying the impact of thermal stress on milk yields is essential to effectively manage present and future risks in dairy systems. Despite the existence of numerous heat indices designed to communicate stress thresholds, little information is available regarding the accuracy of different indices in estimating milk yield losses from both cold and heat stress at large spatio-temporal scales. To address this gap, we comparatively analyzed the performance of existing thermal indices in capturing US milk yield response to both cold and heat stress at the national scale. We selected four commonly used thermal indices: the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI), Black Globe Humidity Index (BGHI), Adjusted Temperature and Humidity Index (THIadj), and Comprehensive Climate Index (CCI). Using a statistical panel regression model with observational and reanalysis weather data from 1981-2020, we systematically compared the patterns of yield sensitivities and statistical performance of the four indices. We found that the US state-level milk yield variability was better explained by the THIadj and CCI, which combine the effects of temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation. Our analysis also reveals a continuous and nonlinear responses of milk yields to a range of cold to heat stress across all four indices. This implies that solely relying on fixed thresholds of these indices to model milk yield changes may be insufficient to capture cumulative thermal stress. Cold extremes reduced milk yields comparably to those impacted by heat extremes on the national scale. Additionally, we found large spatial variability in milk yield sensitivities, implying further limitations to the use of fixed thresholds across locations. Moreover, we found decreased yield sensitivity to thermal stress in the most recent two decades, suggesting adaptive changes in management to reduce weather-related risks.

Modeling the relationship between heat stress, feed intake, and day relative to calving in nonlactating dairy cows.

Heat stress (HS) during the dry period can affect animal welfare, health, dry matter intake (DMI), and milk production in the subsequent lactation, which will negatively affect the profitability of dairy farms. In this study, the objective was to model the changes in DMI in pregnant nonlactating heat-stressed dairy cows with or without access to evaporative cooling systems. A database was built, composed of individual DMI records from 244 pregnant nonlactating dairy cows from an average -29.3 d (range: -42 to -21 d; SD: ±7.54 d) to -1 d relative to calving (DRC) and housed in environmental conditions in which temperature-humidity index (THI) ranged from 58.4 to 83.3, with or without access to evaporative cooling systems. Generalized additive mixed-effects models were used to describe the relationships of DMI with HS and DRC. Changes in DMI with the increase in THI and the progression of pregnancy in cows with or without evaporative cooling systems were estimated using differential equations. On average, cows housed in barns without evaporative cooling systems had a reduction in DMI of 1.30 kg/d and increased rectal temperature in 0.22°C in relation to those housed in barns with evaporative cooling systems. Dry matter intake decreased as THI increased, but the reduction was greater for noncooled cows as THI values increased. In addition, regardless of the THI, DMI started to decrease at -14 DRC for cooled cows, whereas for noncooled cows it already started at -30 DRC, relative to the previous days evaluated. The intensity of the reduction was lesser for cows that had access to evaporative cooling systems or were in the dry period in May to June as compared with those that were in the dry period in July to August or September to October. The models generated in this study, which include environmental variables, should lead to more accurate predictions of DMI during HS that can be used to formulate diets to meet the needs of the late pregnant cow because it is possible to predict changes in DMI as the heat load and DRC change. Such models are also expected to help dairy nutritionists to decide when and how to apply the dietary strategies available to attenuate the reductions in DMI with the intensity of HS and progression of pregnancy.

Modeling the effects of heat stress in animal performance and enteric methane emissions in lactating dairy cows.

Heat stress (HS) negatively affects dry matter intake (DMI), milk yield (MY), feed efficiency (FE), and free water intake (FWI) in dairy cows, with detrimental consequences to animal welfare, health, and profitability of dairy farms. Absolute enteric methane (CH4) emission, yield (CH4/DMI), and intensity (CH4/MY) may also be affected. Therefore, the goal of this study was to model the changes in dairy cow productivity, water intake, and absolute CH4 emissions, yield, and intensity with the progression (days of exposure) of a cyclical HS period in lactating dairy cows. Heat stress was induced by increasing the average temperature by 15°C (from 19°C in the thermoneutral period to 34°C) while keeping relative humidity constant at 20% (temperature-humidity index peaks of approximately 83) in climate-controlled chambers for up to 20 d. A database composed of individual records (n = 1,675) of DMI and MY from 82 heat-stressed lactating dairy cows housed in environmental chambers from 6 studies was used. Free water intake was also estimated based on DMI, dry matter, crude protein, sodium, and potassium content of the diets, and ambient temperature. Absolute CH4 emissions was estimated based on DMI, fatty acids, and dietary digestible neutral detergent fiber content of the diets. Generalized additive mixed-effects models were used to describe the relationships of DMI, MY, FE, and absolute CH4 emissions, yield, and intensity with HS. Dry matter intake and absolute CH4 emissions and yield reduced with the progression of HS up to 9 d, when it started to increase again up to 20 d. Milk yield and FE reduced with the progression of HS up to 20 d. Free water intake (kg/d) decreased during the exposure to HS mainly because of a reduction in DMI; however, when expressed in kg/kg of DMI it increased modestly. Methane intensity also reduced initially up to d 5 during HS exposure but then started to increase again following the DMI and MY pattern up to d 20. However, the reductions in CH4 emissions (absolute, yield, and intensity) occurred at the expense of decreases in DMI, MY, and FE, which are not desirable. This study provides quantitative predictions of the changes in animal performance (DMI, MY, FE, FWI) and CH4 emissions (absolute, yield, and intensity) with the progression of HS in lactating dairy cows. The models developed in this study could be used as a tool to help dairy nutritionists to decide when and how to adopt strategies to mitigate the negative effects of HS on animal health and performance and related environmental costs. Thus, more precise and accurate on-farm management decisions could be taken with the use of these models. However, application of the developed models outside of the ranges of temperature-humidity index and period of HS exposure included in this study is not recommended. Also, validation of predictive capacity of the models to predict CH4 emissions and FWI using data from in vivo studies where these variables are measured in heat-stressed lactating dairy cows is required before these models can be used.

Combined influence of soil moisture and atmospheric evaporative demand is important for accurately predicting US maize yields.

Understanding the response of agriculture to heat and moisture stress is essential to adapt food systems under climate change. Although evidence of crop yield loss with extreme temperature is abundant, disentangling the roles of temperature and moisture in determining yield has proved challenging, largely due to limited soil moisture data and the tight coupling between moisture and temperature at the land surface. Here, using well-resolved observations of soil moisture from the recently launched Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, we quantify the contribution of imbalances between atmospheric evaporative demand and soil moisture to maize yield damage in the US Midwest. We show that retrospective yield predictions based on the interactions between atmospheric demand and soil moisture significantly outperform those using temperature and precipitation singly or together. The importance of accounting for this water balance is highlighted by the fact that climate simulations uniformly predict increases in atmospheric demand during the growing season but the trend in root-zone soil moisture varies between models, with some models indicating that yield damages associated with increased evaporative demand are moderated by increased water supply. A damage estimate conditioned only on simulated changes in atmospheric demand, as opposed to also accounting for changes in soil moisture, would erroneously indicate approximately twice the damage. This research demonstrates that more accurate predictions of maize yield can be achieved by using soil moisture data and indicates that accurate estimates of how climate change will influence crop yields require explicitly accounting for variations in water availability.