Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020-2021.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1-4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Incidence Threshold for Surveillance in Virologically Cured Hepatitis C Individuals.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Guidelines recommend biannual surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis if the HCC incidence rate is above 1.5 per 100 person-years (PY). However, the incidence threshold for surveillance in individuals who achieve a virologic cure is unknown. We estimated the HCC incidence rate above which routine HCC surveillance is cost-effective in this growing population of virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. METHODS: We developed a Markov-based microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C who achieved virologic cure with oral direct-acting antivirals. We used published data on the natural history of hepatitis C, competing risk post virologic cure, HCC tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, contemporary HCC treatment options and associated costs, and utilities of different health states. We estimated the HCC incidence above which biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein would be cost-effective. RESULTS: In virologically cured hepatitis C individuals with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis, HCC surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.7 per 100 PY using $100,000 per quality-adjusted life year willingness-to-pay. At this HCC incidence, routine HCC surveillance would result in 2650 and 5700 additional life years per 100,000 cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis persons, respectively, compared with no surveillance. At $150,000 willingness-to-pay, surveillance is cost-effective if HCC incidence exceeds 0.4 per 100 PY. Sensitivity analysis showed that the threshold mostly remained below 1.5 per 100 PY. CONCLUSIONS: The contemporary HCC incidence threshold is much lower than the previous 1.5% incidence value used to guide HCC surveillance decisions. Updating clinical guidelines could improve the early diagnosis of HCC.

A multimorbidity model for estimating health outcomes from the syndemic of injection drug use and associated infections in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Fatal drug overdoses and serious injection-related infections are rising in the US. Multiple concurrent infections in people who inject drugs (PWID) exacerbate poor health outcomes, but little is known about how the synergy among infections compounds clinical outcomes and costs. Injection drug use (IDU) converges multiple epidemics into a syndemic in the US, including opioid use and HIV. Estimated rates of new injection-related infections in the US are limited due to widely varying estimates of the number of PWID in the US, and in the absence of clinical trials and nationally representative longitudinal observational studies of PWID, simulation models provide important insights to policymakers for informed decisions. METHODS: We developed and validated a MultimorbiditY model to Reduce Infections Associated with Drug use (MYRIAD). This microsimulation model of drug use and associated infections (HIV, hepatitis C virus [HCV], and severe bacterial infections) uses inputs derived from published data to estimate national level trends in the US. We used Latin hypercube sampling to calibrate model output against published data from 2015 to 2019 for fatal opioid overdose rates. We internally validated the model for HIV and HCV incidence and bacterial infection hospitalization rates among PWID. We identified best fitting parameter sets that met pre-established goodness-of-fit targets using the Pearson's chi-square test. We externally validated the model by comparing model output to published fatal opioid overdose rates from 2020. RESULTS: Out of 100 sample parameter sets for opioid use, the model produced 3 sets with well-fitting results to key calibration targets for fatal opioid overdose rates with Pearson's chi-square test ranging from 1.56E-5 to 2.65E-5, and 2 sets that met validation targets. The model produced well-fitting results within validation targets for HIV and HCV incidence and serious bacterial infection hospitalization rates. From 2015 to 2019, the model estimated 120,000 injection-related overdose deaths, 17,000 new HIV infections, and 144,000 new HCV infections among PWID. CONCLUSIONS: This multimorbidity microsimulation model, populated with data from national surveillance data and published literature, accurately replicated fatal opioid overdose, incidence of HIV and HCV, and serious bacterial infections hospitalization rates. The MYRIAD model of IDU could be an important tool to assess clinical and economic outcomes related to IDU behavior and infections with serious morbidity and mortality for PWID.

Estimated Reductions in Opioid Overdose Deaths With Sustainment of Public Health Interventions in 4 US States.

Importance: In 2021, more than 80 000 US residents died from an opioid overdose. Public health intervention initiatives, such as the Helping to End Addiction Long-term (HEALing) Communities Study (HCS), are being launched with the goal of reducing opioid-related overdose deaths (OODs). Objective: To estimate the change in the projected number of OODs under different scenarios of the duration of sustainment of interventions, compared with the status quo. Design, Setting, and Participants: This decision analytical model simulated the opioid epidemic in the 4 states participating in the HCS (ie, Kentucky, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio) from 2020 to 2026. Participants were a simulated population transitioning from opioid misuse to opioid use disorder (OUD), overdose, treatment, and relapse. The model was calibrated using 2015 to 2020 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and other sources for each state. The model accounts for reduced initiation of medications for OUD (MOUDs) and increased OODs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Exposure: Increasing MOUD initiation by 2- or 5-fold, improving MOUD retention to the rates achieved in clinical trial settings, increasing naloxone distribution efforts, and furthering safe opioid prescribing. An initial 2-year duration of interventions was simulated, with potential sustainment for up to 3 additional years. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected reduction in number of OODs under different combinations and durations of sustainment of interventions. Results: Compared with the status quo, the estimated annual reduction in OODs at the end of the second year of interventions was 13% to 17% in Kentucky, 17% to 27% in Massachusetts, 15% to 22% in New York, and 15% to 22% in Ohio. Sustaining all interventions for an additional 3 years was estimated to reduce the annual number of OODs at the end of the fifth year by 18% to 27% in Kentucky, 28% to 46% in Massachusetts, 22% to 34% in New York, and 25% to 41% in Ohio. The longer the interventions were sustained, the better the outcomes; however, these positive gains would be washed out if interventions were not sustained. Conclusions and Relevance: In this decision analytical model study of the opioid epidemic in 4 US states, sustained implementation of interventions, including increased delivery of MOUDs and naloxone supply, was found to be needed to reduce OODs and prevent deaths from increasing again.

Projecting COVID-19 Mortality as States Relax Nonpharmacologic Interventions.

Importance: A key question for policy makers and the public is what to expect from the COVID-19 pandemic going forward as states lift nonpharmacologic interventions (NPIs), such as indoor mask mandates, to prevent COVID-19 transmission. Objective: To project COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2022, and December 31, 2022, in each of the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico assuming different dates of lifting of mask mandates and NPIs. Design Setting and Participants: This simulation modeling study used the COVID-19 Policy Simulator compartmental model to project COVID-19 deaths from March 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022, using simulated populations in the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Projected current epidemiologic trends for each state until December 31, 2022, assuming the current pace of vaccination is maintained into the future and modeling different dates of lifting NPIs. Exposures: Date of lifting statewide NPI mandates as March 1, April 1, May 1, June 1, or July 1, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Projected COVID-19 incident deaths from March to December 2022. Results: With the high transmissibility of current circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants, the simulated lifting of NPIs in March 2022 was associated with resurgences of COVID-19 deaths in nearly every state. In comparison, delaying by even 1 month to lift NPIs in April 2022 was estimated to mitigate the amplitude of the surge. For most states, however, no amount of delay was estimated to be sufficient to prevent a surge in deaths completely. The primary factor associated with recurrent epidemics in the simulation was the assumed high effective reproduction number of unmitigated viral transmission. With a lower level of transmissibility similar to those of the ancestral strains, the model estimated that most states could remove NPIs in March 2022 and likely not see recurrent surges. Conclusions and Relevance: This simulation study estimated that the SARS-CoV-2 virus would likely continue to take a major toll in the US, even as cases continued to decrease. Because of the high transmissibility of the recent Delta and Omicron variants, premature lifting of NPIs could pose a substantial threat of rebounding surges in morbidity and mortality. At the same time, continued delay in lifting NPIs may not prevent future surges.

What is the prevalence of and trend in opioid use disorder in the United States from 2010 to 2019? Using multiplier approaches to estimate prevalence for an unknown population size.

Opioid-related overdose deaths have increased since 2010 in the U.S., but information on trends in opioid use disorder (OUD) prevalence is limited due to unreliable data. Multiplier methods are a classical epidemiological technique to estimate prevalence when direct estimation is infeasible or unreliable. We used two different multiplier approaches to estimate OUD prevalence from 2010 to 2019. First, we estimated OUD in National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), and based on existing capture-recapture studies, multiplied prevalence by 4.5x. Second, we estimated the probability of drug poisoning death among people with OUD (Meta-analysis indicates 0.52/100,000), and divided the number of drug poisoning deaths in the US by this probability. Estimates were weighted to account for increase in drug-related mortality in recent years due to fentanyl. Estimated OUD prevalence was lowest when estimated in NSDUH with no multiplier, and highest when estimated from vital statistics data without adjustment. Consistent findings emerged with two methods: NSDUH data with multiplier correction, and vital statistics data with multiplier and adjustment. From these two methods, OUD prevalence increased from 2010 to 2014; then stabilized and slightly declined annually (survey data with multiplier, highest prevalence of 4.0% in 2015; death data with a multiplier and correction, highest prevalence of 2.35% in 2016). The number of US adolescent and adult individuals with OUD in 2019 was estimated between 6.7-7.6 million. When multipliers and corrections are used, OUD may have stabilized or slightly declined after 2015. Nevertheless, it remains highly prevalent, affecting 6-7 million US adolescents and adults.

Duration and cost-effectiveness of hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance in hepatitis C patients after viral eradication.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C with oral direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) leads to virological cure, however, the subsequent risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists. Our objective was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C and the optimal age to stop surveillance. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model of the natural history of HCC in individuals with hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved virological cure with oral DAAs. We used published data on HCC incidence, tumor progression, real-world HCC surveillance adherence, and costs and utilities of different health states. We compared biannual HCC surveillance using ultrasound and alpha-fetoprotein for varying durations of surveillance (from 5 years to lifetime) vs. no surveillance. RESULTS: In virologically cured patients with cirrhosis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000 per additional quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (range: $79,500-$94,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 70, irrespective of the starting age (40-65). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 130 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 51 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with cirrhosis. In virologically cured patients with advanced fibrosis, the ICER of biannual surveillance remained below $150,000/QALY (range: $124,600-$129,800) when surveillance was stopped at age 60, irrespective of the starting age (40-50). Compared with no surveillance, surveillance detected 24 additional HCCs in 'very early'/early stage and yielded 12 additional QALYs per 1,000 patients with advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Biannual surveillance for HCC in patients cured of hepatitis C is cost-effective until the age of 70 for patients with cirrhosis, and until the age of 60 for patients with stable advanced fibrosis. LAY SUMMARY: Individuals who are cured of hepatitis C using oral antiviral drugs remain at risk of developing liver cancer. The value of lifelong screening for liver cancer in these individuals is not known. By simulating the life course of hepatitis C cured individuals, we found that ultrasound-based biannual screening for liver cancer is cost-effective up to age 70 in those with cirrhosis and up to age 60 in those with stable advanced fibrosis.

A clash of epidemics: Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic response on opioid overdose.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) will have a lasting impact on public health. In addition to the direct effects of COVID-19 infection, physical distancing and quarantine interventions have indirect effects on health. While necessary, physical distancing interventions to control the spread of COVID-19 could have multiple impacts on people living with opioid use disorder, including impacts on mental health that lead to greater substance use, the availability of drug supply, the ways that people use drugs, treatment-seeking behaviors, and retention in care. The degree to which COVID-19 will impact the opioid epidemic and through which of the possible mechanisms that we discuss is important to monitor. We employed simulation modeling to demonstrate the potential impact of physical distancing on overdose mortality.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Invited for the cover of this issue is the group of Dirk Menche at the University of Bonn. The image depicts the natural product leupyrrin A1 and a synthetic leupylog in balance on an IC50 weighing scale. Read the full text of the article at 10.1002/chem.202002622.

Non-Invasive Luciferase Imaging of Type I Interferon Induction in a Transgenic Mouse Model of Biomaterial Associated Bacterial Infections: Microbial Specificity and Inter-Bacterial Species Interactions.

The performance of biomaterials is often compromised by bacterial infections and subsequent inflammation. So far, the conventional analysis of inflammatory processes in vivo involves time-consuming histology and biochemical assays. The present study employed a mouse model where interferon beta (IFN-ß) is monitored as a marker for non-invasive rapid detection of inflammation in implant-related infections. The mouse model comprises subcutaneous implantation of morphologically modified titanium, followed by experimental infections with four taxonomically diverse oral bacteria: Streptococcus oralis, Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans, Porphyromonas gingivalis and Treponema denticola (as mono culture or selected mixed-culture). IFN-ß expression increased upon infections depending on the type of pathogen and was prolonged by the presence of the implant. IFN-ß expression kinetics reduced with two mixed species infections when compared with the single species. Histological and confocal microscopy confirmed pathogen-specific infiltration of inflammatory cells at the implant-tissue interface. This was observed mainly in the vicinity of infected implants and was, in contrast to interferon expression, higher in infections with dual species. In summary, this non-invasive mouse model can be used to quantify longitudinally host inflammation in real time and suggests that the polymicrobial character of infection, highly relevant to clinical situations, has complex effects on host immunity.

SAR Studies of the Leupyrrins: Design and Total Synthesis of Highly Potent Simplified Leupylogs.

Leupyrrins are highly potent antifungal agents. A structure-activity-relationship study of natural and synthetic derivatives is reported which reveals important insights into the biological relevance of several structural subunits leading to the discovery of highly potent but drastically simplified leupylogs that incorporate a stable and readily available aromatic side chain. For their synthesis a concise strategy is described that enables a short and versatile access.

Evidence for inoculum size and gas interfaces as critical factors in bacterial biofilm formation on magnesium implants in an animal model.

Infections of medical implants caused by bacterial biofilms are a major clinical problem. Bacterial colonization is predicted to be prevented by alkaline magnesium surfaces. However, in experimental animal studies, magnesium implants prolonged infections. The reason for this peculiarity likely lies within the ‒still largely hypothetical‒ mechanism by which infection arises. Investigating subcutaneous magnesium implants infected with bioluminescent Pseudomonas aeruginosa via in vivo imaging, we found that the rate of implant infections was critically dependent on a surprisingly high quantity of injected bacteria. At high inocula, bacteria were antibiotic-refractory immediately after infection. High cell densities are known to limit nutrient availability, restricting proliferation and trigger quorum sensing which could both contribute to the rapid initial resistance. We propose that gas bubbles such as those formed during magnesium corrosion, can then act as interfaces that support biofilm formation and permit long-term survival. This model could provide an explanation for the apparent ineffectiveness of innovative contact-dependent bactericidal implant surfaces in patients. In addition, the model points toward air bubbles in tissue, either by inclusion during surgery or by spontaneous gas bubble formation later on, could constitute a key risk factor for clinical implant infections.

Prevention of Prescription Opioid Misuse and Projected Overdose Deaths in the United States.

Importance: Deaths due to opioid overdose have tripled in the last decade. Efforts to curb this trend have focused on restricting the prescription opioid supply; however, the near-term effects of such efforts are unknown. Objective: To project effects of interventions to lower prescription opioid misuse on opioid overdose deaths from 2016 to 2025. Design, Setting, and Participants: This system dynamics (mathematical) model of the US opioid epidemic projected outcomes of simulated individuals who engage in nonmedical prescription or illicit opioid use from 2016 to 2025. The analysis was performed in 2018 by retrospectively calibrating the model from 2002 to 2015 data from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Interventions: Comparison of interventions that would lower the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2016 to 2025 based on historical trends (a 7.5% reduction per year) and 50% faster than historical trends (an 11.3% reduction per year), vs a circumstance in which the incidence of misuse remained constant after 2015. Main Outcomes and Measures: Opioid overdose deaths from prescription and illicit opioids from 2016 to 2025 under each intervention. Results: Under the status quo, the annual number of opioid overdose deaths is projected to increase from 33 100 in 2015 to 81 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 63 600-101 700) in 2025 (a 147% increase from 2015). From 2016 to 2025, 700 400 (95% UI, 590 200-817 100) individuals in the United States are projected to die from opioid overdose, with 80% of the deaths attributable to illicit opioids. The number of individuals using illicit opioids is projected to increase by 61%-from 0.93 million (95% UI, 0.83-1.03 million) in 2015 to 1.50 million (95% UI, 0.98-2.22 million) by 2025. Across all interventions tested, further lowering the incidence of prescription opioid misuse from 2015 levels is projected to decrease overdose deaths by only 3.0% to 5.3%. Conclusions and Relevance: This study's findings suggest that interventions targeting prescription opioid misuse such as prescription monitoring programs may have a modest effect, at best, on the number of opioid overdose deaths in the near future. Additional policy interventions are urgently needed to change the course of the epidemic.

Progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia: Results of a simulation model.

OBJECTIVES: To gain insight into the natural history and carcinogenesis pathway of Pancreatic Intraepithelial Neoplasia (PanIN) lesions by building a calibrated simulation model of PanIN progression to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) METHODS: We revised a previously validated simulation model of solid PDAC, calibrating the model to fit data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program and published literature on PanIN prevalence by age. We estimated the likelihood of progression from PanIN states (1, 2, and 3) to PDAC and the time between PanIN onset and PDAC (dwell time). We evaluated a hypothetical intervention to test for and treat PanIN 3 lesions to estimate the potential benefits from PanIN detection. RESULTS: We estimated the lifetime probability of progressing from PanIN 1 to PDAC to be 1.5% (men), 1.3% (women). Progression from PanIN 1 to PDAC took 33.6 years and 35.3 years, respectively, and from PanIN 3 to PDAC took 11.3 years and 12.3 years. A hypothetical test for PanIN 3 detection and treatment could provide a maximum, average life expectancy gain of 40 days. CONCLUSIONS: Our modeling analysis estimates PanINs have a relatively indolent course to PDAC, supporting the feasibility of potential future early detection strategies.

Phosphate conversion coating reduces the degradation rate and suppresses side effects of metallic magnesium implants in an animal model.

Magnesium alloys have promising mechanical and biological properties for the development of degradable implants. However, rapid implant corrosion and gas accumulations in tissue impede clinical applications. With time, the implant degradation rate is reduced by a highly biocompatible, phosphate-containing corrosion layer. To circumvent initial side effects after implantation it was attempted to develop a simple in vitro procedure to generate a similarly protective phosphate corrosion layer. To this end magnesium samples were pre-incubated in phosphate solutions. The resulting coating was well adherent during routine handling procedures. It completely suppressed the initial burst of corrosion and it reduced the average in vitro magnesium degradation rate over 56 days almost two-fold. In a small animal model phosphate coatings on magnesium implants were highly biocompatible and abrogated the appearance of gas cavities in the tissue. After implantation, the phosphate coating was replaced by a layer with an elemental composition that was highly similar to the corrosion layer that had formed on plain magnesium implants. The data demonstrate that a simple pre-treatment could improve clinically relevant properties of magnesium-based implants. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part B: Appl Biomater, 105B: 1622-1635, 2017.

Differential magnesium implant corrosion coat formation and contribution to bone bonding.

Magnesium alloys are presently under investigation as promising biodegradable implant materials with osteoconductive properties. To study the molecular mechanisms involved, the potential contribution of soluble magnesium corrosion products to the stimulation of osteoblastic cell differentiation was examined. However, no evidence for the stimulation of osteoblast differentiation could be obtained when cultured mesenchymal precursor cells were differentiated in the presence of metallic magnesium or in cell culture medium containing elevated magnesium ion levels. Similarly, in soft tissue no bone induction by metallic magnesium or by the corrosion product magnesium hydroxide could be observed in a mouse model. Motivated by the comparatively rapid accumulation solid corrosion products physicochemical processes were examined as an alternative mechanism to explain the stimulation of bone growth by magnesium-based implants. During exposure to physiological solutions a structured corrosion coat formed on magnesium whereby the elements calcium and phosphate were enriched in the outermost layer which could play a role in the established biocompatible behavior of magnesium implants. When magnesium pins were inserted into avital bones, corrosion lead to increases in the pull out force, suggesting that the expanding corrosion layer was interlocking with the surrounding bone. Since mechanical stress is a well-established inducer of bone growth, volume increases caused by the rapid accumulation of corrosion products and the resulting force development could be a key mechanism and provide an explanation for the observed stimulatory effects of magnesium-based implants in hard tissue. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 105A: 697-709, 2017.

Evaluation of the inflammatory potential of implant materials in a mouse model by bioluminescent imaging of intravenously injected bone marrow cells.

To evaluate the inflammatory potential of implants a bioluminescent imaging assay was developed using luciferase-expressing bone marrow cells that were injected into the blood circulation of wild-type mice. After subcutaneous implantation of titanium discs as an example for a clinically established biocompatible material, the luminosity was modest. Similarly, low luminosity signals were generated by pure magnesium implants that were used to represent metallic alloys that are presently under investigation as novel degradable implant materials. Increased luminosity was observed in response to degradable polymeric PLGA implants. Surgical wounds induced a basic luminescent response even in the absence of an implant. However, the material-independent response to injury could be minimized using injectable microparticle suspensions. In parallel with the resorption of biodegradable microparticles, the signal induced by PLGA declined faster when compared to non-degradable polystyrene suspensions. By using an interferon type I inducible Mx2 promoter construct to drive luciferase gene expression, the highest luminosity was observed in response to bacteria, indicating that the system could also be employed to monitor implant infections. Overall, labeled bone marrow cells yielded specific, well-defined localized signals that correlated with the inflammatory responses to implants. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 104A: 2149-2158, 2016.

Susceptibility of metallic magnesium implants to bacterial biofilm infections.

Magnesium alloys have promising mechanical and biological properties as biodegradable medical implant materials for temporary applications during bone healing or as vascular stents. Whereas conventional implants are prone to colonization by treatment resistant microbial biofilms in which bacteria are embedded in a protective matrix, magnesium alloys have been reported to act antibacterial in vitro. To permit a basic assessment of antibacterial properties of implant materials in vivo an economic but robust animal model was established. Subcutaneous magnesium implants were inoculated with bacteria in a mouse model. Contrary to the expectations, bacterial activity was enhanced and prolonged in the presence of magnesium implants. Systemic antibiotic treatments were remarkably ineffective, which is a typical property of bacterial biofilms. Biofilm formation was further supported by electron microscopic analyses that revealed highly dense bacterial populations and evidence for the presence of extracellular matrix material. Bacterial agglomerates could be detected not only on the implant surface but also at a limited distance in the peri-implant tissue. Therefore, precautions may be necessary to minimize risks of metallic magnesium-containing implants in prospective clinical applications. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Biomed Mater Res Part A: 104A: 1489-1499, 2016.

Alkalization is responsible for antibacterial effects of corroding magnesium.

Magnesium alloys are presently investigated as potential medical implant materials for temporary applications. Magnesium has been reported to have antibacterial activities and could therefore be used to prevent antibiotic treatment-resistant bacterial implant infections. For characterizing the effects of magnesium on infectious bacteria, bioluminescent S. aureus or P. aeruginosa were employed. The proliferation of both types of bacteria was suppressed in the presence of metallic magnesium and also in aqueous magnesium corrosion extracts. Of the two soluble corrosion products, magnesium ions were well tolerated while antibacterial activities correlated with increased pH levels of the supernatants. The alkaline pH alone was sufficient for the antibacterial effects which were completely abolished when the pH of the corrosion supernatants was neutralized. These results demonstrate that pH increases are necessary and sufficient for the antibacterial activity of metallic magnesium. In an animal model magnesium implants showed an enhanced but variable resistance to bacterial colonization.