Assessing the effect of health system resources on HIV and tuberculosis programmes in Malawi: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Malawi is progressing towards UNAIDS and WHO End TB Strategy targets to eliminate HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. We aimed to assess the prospective effect of achieving these goals on the health and health system of the country and the influence of consumable constraints. METHODS: In this modelling study, we used the Thanzi la Onse (Health for All) model, which is an individual-based multi-disease simulation model that simulates HIV and tuberculosis transmission, alongside other diseases (eg, malaria, non-communicable diseases, and maternal diseases), and gates access to essential medicines according to empirical estimates of availability. The model integrates dynamic disease modelling with health system engagement behaviour, health system use, and capabilities (ie, personnel and consumables). We used 2018 data on the availability of HIV and tuberculosis consumables (for testing, treatment, and prevention) across all facility levels of the country to model three scenarios of HIV and tuberculosis programme scale-up from Jan 1, 2023, to Dec 31, 2033: a baseline scenario, when coverage remains static using existing consumable constraints; a constrained scenario, in which prioritised interventions are scaled up with fixed consumable constraints; and an unconstrained scenario, in which prioritised interventions are scaled up with maximum availability of all consumables related to HIV and tuberculosis care. FINDINGS: With uninterrupted medical supplies, in Malawi, we projected HIV and tuberculosis incidence to decrease to 26 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 19-35) cases and 55 (23-74) cases per 100 000 person-years by 2033 (from 152 [98-195] cases and 123 [99-160] cases per 100 000 person-years in 2023), respectively, with programme scale-up, averting a total of 12·21 million (95% UI 11·39-14·16) disability-adjusted life-years. However, the effect was compromised by restricted access to key medicines, resulting in approximately 58 700 additional deaths (33 400 [95% UI 22 000-41 000] due to AIDS and 25 300 [19 300-30 400] due to tuberculosis) compared with the unconstrained scenario. Between 2023 and 2033, eliminating HIV treatment stockouts could avert an estimated 12 100 deaths compared with the baseline scenario, and improved access to tuberculosis prevention medications could prevent 5600 deaths in addition to those achieved through programme scale-up alone. With programme scale-up under the constrained scenario, consumable stockouts are projected to require an estimated 14·3 million extra patient-facing hours between 2023 and 2033, mostly from clinical or nursing staff, compared with the unconstrained scenario. In 2033, with enhanced screening, 188 000 (81%) of 232 900 individuals projected to present with active tuberculosis could start tuberculosis treatment within 2 weeks of initial presentation if all required consumables were available, but only 8600 (57%) of 15 100 presenting under the baseline scenario. INTERPRETATION: Ignoring frailties in the health-care system, in particular the potential non-availability of consumables, in projections of HIV and tuberculosis programme scale-up might risk overestimating potential health impacts and underestimating required health system resources. Simultaneous health system strengthening alongside programme scale-up is crucial, and should yield greater benefits to population health while mitigating the strain on a heavily constrained health-care system. FUNDING: Wellcome and UK Research and Innovation as part of the Global Challenges Research Fund.

Determinants of pentavalent and measles vaccination dropouts among children aged 12-23 months in The Gambia.

BACKGROUND: Every year, vaccination averts about 3 million deaths from vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs). However, despite that immunization coverage is increasing globally, many children in developing countries are still dropping out of vaccination. Thus, the present study aimed to identify determinants of vaccination dropouts among children aged 12-23 months in The Gambia. METHODS: The study utilized cross-sectional data obtained from the Gambia Demographic and Health Survey 2019-20 (GDHS). The percentage of children aged 12-23 months who dropped out from pentavalent and measles vaccination were calculated by (1) subtracting the third dose of pentavalent vaccine from the first dose of Pentavalent vaccine, and (2) subtracting the first dose of measles vaccine from the first dose Pentavalent vaccine. Generalized Estimating Equation models (GEE) were constructed to examine the risk factors of pentavalent and measles vaccinations dropout. RESULTS: Approximately 7.0% and 4.0% of the 1,302 children aged 12-23 months had dropped out of measles and pentavalent vaccination respectively. The multivariate analyses showed that when caregivers attended fewer than four antenatal care sessions, when children had no health card or whose card was lost, and resided in urban areas increased the odds of pentavalent dropout. On the other hand, when women gave birth in home and other places, when children had no health card, and being an urban areas dweller increased the odds of measles dropout. CONCLUSION: Tailored public health interventions towards urban residence and health education for all women during ANC are hereby recommended.

Effects of deworming medication on anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Despite the limited knowledge regarding the effects of deworming medication (DM) on nutritional indicators in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), deworming programmes continue to be implemented in resource-limited countries. Therefore, the current study aimed to examine the effects of DM on anaemia among children aged 6-59 months in SSA. METHODS: The analysis was performed using data obtained from 17 demographic and health surveys (DHSs) conducted in SSA. Children were considered to be anaemic if their haemoglobin (Hb) concentration was less than 11.0 g/dl, adjusting for altitude. To account for both multiple measures at the cluster level and the clustering of children within the same country, generalized linear mixed models were used to analyse the anaemia outcomes in 50,075 children aged 6-59 months. RESULTS: Overall, anaemia was reported in 61.8% of the children, and their median Hb concentration was 10.5 g/dl (interquartile range 9.4-11.5). The prevalence of anaemia ranged from 34.5% in Rwanda to 81.1% in Mali. Multivariate analyses showed that children who did not receive DM had increased odds of being anaemic (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.16). CONCLUSIONS: The current study revealed that DM can decrease the risk of anaemia among preschool-age children (pre-SAC) in SSA. Thus, tailored public health programmes aimed at reducing childhood anaemia need to consider deworming. However, longitudinal studies are needed to validate the association that has been reported in this cross-sectional study.

Tracking immunization coverage, dropout and equity gaps among children ages 12-23 months in Malawi - bottleneck analysis of the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey.

BACKGROUND: Between 2010 and 2016, the proportion of children 12-23 months of age who received full immunization in Malawi decreased from 81% to 76%. Most studies on immunization have mainly focused on the risk factors of vaccination coverage while data on dropouts and equity gaps is very scanty. Thus the aim of the present study was to describe the trend in immunization coverage, dropout rates and effective immunization coverage (EIC) among children ages 12-23 months in Malawi. METHODS: Secondary analyses of the cross-sectional data obtained from the three waves of the Demographic and Health Surveys (2004, 2010 and 2015-16) were conducted. Using bottleneck analysis, outputs were generated based on service coverage, demand/equity (service utilization) and quality (full immunization). The World Health Organization benchmarks were used to assess gaps in the immunization coverage indicators. RESULTS: The coverage was >90.0% in most of the antigens while full immunization status was estimated at 65%, 84% and 73% in 2004, 2010 and 2015, respectively. The highest coverage was observed in Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and lowest in oral polio vaccine 1 (OPV1). OPV1 coverage was <90% in the 2004 cohort year, while pentavalent 3 (Penta3) and measles-containing vaccine 1 (MCV1) coverages were <90% in 2004. Dropout rates of Penta3 and MCV1 were significantly >10% in 2004. The logistic regression analyses showed that children were significantly less likely to be immunized with Penta3 and MCV1 in all cohort years compared with Penta1. CONCLUSIONS: Although immunization coverage was in line with the national and district targets for various antigens, full vaccination coverage (FVC) is still lagging behind. Furthermore, the dropout rates for Penta3 and MCV1 showed upside U-shaped patterns. Thus health education, supervision and orientation of service providers are urgently needed to address disparities that are existing in FVC.