Development and validation of a simple stone score to estimate the probability of residual stones prior to percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the present study was to develop and internally validate a simple stone score (SSS) to estimate the probability of clinically significant residual fragments (CSRF) prior to percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PNL). METHODS: The files of 1170 PNL procedures between January and December 2015 were evaluated. CT-derived stone characteristics were examined. Caliceal stone distribution (CSD) was assigned three grades based on the number of calices involved regardless of the renal pelvis (I = no or single calix; II = more than one calix; and III = more than 2 calices or complete staghorn stones). CSRF was defined as any residuals >4 mm in postoperative CT. A logistic regression model to predict the CSRF was fitted, and coefficients were used to develop the SSS. The SSS was validated by discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Patients' data were split into training (936, 80%) and validating (234, 20%) datasets. In the training partition, independent predictors of CSRF were CSD-grade II (OR: 4.2; 95%CI: 2.5-7; P<0.001), grade III (OR: 7.8; 95%CI: 4.2-14.4; P<0.001) and largest stone diameter (LSD) (OR:1.3; 95%CI: 1.1-1.6; P<0.001). Score points 0, 1, 2, and 0, 3, 9 were given to LSD<30, 30-40, >40 mm, and CSD grades I, II, III, respectively. Discrimination of the SSS was 0.79 and after 10-fold cross-validation and internal validation was 0.86. The calibration plot and DCA highlighted the validity and clinical significance of the SSS. CONCLUSIONS: The novel SSS could be used to describe the risk of CSRF prior to PNL. Further studies are invited for external validation.

Preoperative risk factors for complications of percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

This study was conducted to evaluate preoperative risk factors for development of complications of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). All consecutive patients aged ≥ 16 years who underwent PCNL during 2015 were retrospectively reviewed. Non-contrast CT (NCCT) was performed for all patients to evaluate stone complexity. The technique of PCNL was the same for all patients. Intra-operative and postoperative complications were recorded and classified based on modified Clavien system. The differences in preoperative data (patients, renal and stone characteristics including Guy's and STONE scores) between complicated and uncomplicated cases were compared using univariate and multivariate statistical analyses for detection of independent risk factors. The study included 1178 patients (61% were males). Mean age was 50 ± 12 years, and mean BMI was 30.7 ± 5.7 kg/m2. Complicated group included 166 patients (14.1%). Independent risk factors on multivariate analysis were infected preoperative urine culture (RR: 2.098, P 0.001, 95%CI: 1.380-3.189), largest stones diameter 30 mm or more (RR: 2.481, P > 0.001, 95%CI: 1.697-3.627) and number of calyces affected by the stones (RR: 2.431, P 0.002, 95%CI: 1.400-4.222 for affection of two calyces and RR: 2.778, P 0.005, 95%CI: 1.357-5.684 for affection of three calyces). While two scoring systems (Guy's and STONE) were not predictive of complications after PCNL, preoperative risk factors were infected preoperative urine culture, distribution of the stones or stone branches in two or three calyceal groups and stone size 30 mm or more.