Probability overestimation induced by icon arrays.

In decision making under risk, where the consequences of choices vary depending on specific probabilities, a proper interpretation of the presented probabilities is essential. However, because people are not good at evaluating numerical values, such as percentages, efforts have been made to accurately convey presented probabilities using visual aids represented by icon arrays. However, previous studies have suggested that icon arrays produce an overestimation of probabilities under specific conditions. Especially, (a) the arrangement of highlighted icons and (b) the severity of the outcomes represented by highlighted icons can lead to an overestimation of probabilities. By considering the absolute estimation of probabilities indicated by icon arrays and manipulating the aforementioned factors, this study investigated whether these factors could elicit an overestimation of probabilities in an additive manner or whether they have interactive effects. Two studies (total N = 1171) consistently showed that the arrangement of highlighted icons and the outcome severity they indicate induced a perceptual bias in the estimation of the probabilities presented in icon arrays in an additive manner. When the highlighted icons were random and the outcomes they indicate were severe, the probabilities presented by the icon arrays were overestimated. Accordingly, the study not only confirms the robustness of the findings of previous studies but also expand our understanding of the probability overestimation caused by icon arrays. Here, we discuss our findings in terms of the impact of risk-related communication.

Effects of graphical presentation of benefits on cognitive judgments induced by affect heuristic: Focusing on the acceptance of genetically modified foods.

Genetically modified (GM) foods have been assumed to be seen through intuitive and affective routes (i.e., affect heuristics) rather than analytical and deliberative routes. We examined the impact of the graphical presentation of benefits derived from GM or conventionally bred foods on the acceptance of these varieties. In the two experiments (n = 266 for study 1 and n = 402 for study 2), no differences emerged in the estimation of farmers' benefits resulting from the introduction of improved varieties by the type of improvement. However, there were statistically significant differences in the magnitude of risk and the degree of acceptance of the improved varieties. Therefore, despite presenting identical benefits as a graphical figure, GM foods were consistently evaluated as providing higher risk and were less frequently accepted than conventionally bred foods. These results suggest that while the graphical presentation of benefits may promote comprehension of some advantages of the introduction of GM varieties, this may not lead to acceptance from the consumer's point of view. Based on the current findings, as well as previous studies on trust in risk managers, we discuss the specific factors that might promote acceptance of GM products.

The Effects of the Passage of Time from the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake on the Public's Anxiety about a Variety of Hazards.

This research investigated whether the Japanese people's anxiety about a variety of hazards, including earthquakes and nuclear accidents, has changed over time since the Tohoku Earthquake in 2011. Data from three nationwide surveys conducted in 2008, 2012, and 2015 were compared to see the change in societal levels of anxiety toward 51 types of hazards. The same two-phase stratified random sampling method was used to create the list of participants in each survey. The results showed that anxiety about earthquakes and nuclear accidents had increased for a time after the Tohoku Earthquake, and then decreased after a four-year time frame with no severe earthquakes and nuclear accidents. It was also revealed that the anxiety level for some hazards other than earthquakes and nuclear accidents had decreased at ten months after the Earthquake, and then remained unchanged after the four years. Therefore, ironically, a major disaster might decrease the public anxiety in general at least for several years.