Unexpected westward range shifts in European forest plants link to nitrogen deposition.

Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies.

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950.

Over the last decades, the natural disturbance is increasingly putting pressure on European forests. Shifts in disturbance regimes may compromise forest functioning and the continuous provisioning of ecosystem services to society, including their climate change mitigation potential. Although forests are central to many European policies, we lack the long-term empirical data needed for thoroughly understanding disturbance dynamics, modeling them, and developing adaptive management strategies. Here, we present a unique database of >170,000 records of ground-based natural disturbance observations in European forests from 1950 to 2019. Reported data confirm a significant increase in forest disturbance in 34 European countries, causing on an average of 43.8 million m3 of disturbed timber volume per year over the 70-year study period. This value is likely a conservative estimate due to under-reporting, especially of small-scale disturbances. We used machine learning techniques for assessing the magnitude of unreported disturbances, which are estimated to be between 8.6 and 18.3 million m3 /year. In the last 20 years, disturbances on average accounted for 16% of the mean annual harvest in Europe. Wind was the most important disturbance agent over the study period (46% of total damage), followed by fire (24%) and bark beetles (17%). Bark beetle disturbance doubled its share of the total damage in the last 20 years. Forest disturbances can profoundly impact ecosystem services (e.g., climate change mitigation), affect regional forest resource provisioning and consequently disrupt long-term management planning objectives and timber markets. We conclude that adaptation to changing disturbance regimes must be placed at the core of the European forest management and policy debate. Furthermore, a coherent and homogeneous monitoring system of natural disturbances is urgently needed in Europe, to better observe and respond to the ongoing changes in forest disturbance regimes.

Directional turnover towards larger-ranged plants over time and across habitats.

Species turnover is ubiquitous. However, it remains unknown whether certain types of species are consistently gained or lost across different habitats. Here, we analysed the trajectories of 1827 plant species over time intervals of up to 78 years at 141 sites across mountain summits, forests, and lowland grasslands in Europe. We found, albeit with relatively small effect sizes, displacements of smaller- by larger-ranged species across habitats. Communities shifted in parallel towards more nutrient-demanding species, with species from nutrient-rich habitats having larger ranges. Because these species are typically strong competitors, declines of smaller-ranged species could reflect not only abiotic drivers of global change, but also biotic pressure from increased competition. The ubiquitous component of turnover based on species range size we found here may partially reconcile findings of no net loss in local diversity with global species loss, and link community-scale turnover to macroecological processes such as biotic homogenisation.

Intermediate disturbances are a key driver of long-term tree demography across old-growth temperate forests.

Disentangling the relative influence of background versus disturbance related mortality on forest demography is crucial for understanding long-term dynamics and predicting the influence of global change on forests. Quantifying the rates and drivers of tree demography requires direct observations of tree populations over multiple decades, yet such studies are rare in old-growth forest, particularly in the temperate zone of Europe. We use multi-decade (1980-2020) monitoring of permanent plots, including observations of mode of mortality and disturbance events, to quantify rates and drivers of tree demography across a network of old-growth remnants in temperate mountain forests of Slovenia. Annual rates of mortality and recruitment varied markedly among sites and over time; census intervals that captured intermediate severity canopy disturbances caused subtle peaks in annual mortality (e.g., >2%/year), while rates of background mortality in non-disturbed intervals averaged about 1%/year. Roughly half of the trees died from modes of mortality associated with disturbance (i.e., uprooting or snapped-alive). Results of a Bayesian multilevel model indicate that beech (Fagus sylvatica) had a higher likelihood of disturbance related mortality compared to fir (Abies alba), which mainly died standing, and there was a notable increase in the odds of disturbance mortality with increasing diameter for all species. Annual recruitment rates were consistently low at sites (<0.5%) that lacked evidence of disturbance, but often exceeded 3% on sites with higher levels of past canopy mortality. Recruitment was dominated by beech on sites with more diffuse background mortality, while the less shade tolerant maple (Acer pseudoplatanus) recruited following known disturbance events. Our study highlights the important role of stand-scale, partial canopy disturbance for long-term forest demography. These results suggest that subtle climate-driven changes in the regime of intermediate severity disturbances could have an important influence on future forest dynamics and warrant attention.

Natural disturbance impacts on trade-offs and co-benefits of forest biodiversity and carbon.

With accelerating environmental change, understanding forest disturbance impacts on trade-offs between biodiversity and carbon dynamics is of high socio-economic importance. Most studies, however, have assessed immediate or short-term effects of disturbance, while long-term impacts remain poorly understood. Using a tree-ring-based approach, we analysed the effect of 250 years of disturbances on present-day biodiversity indicators and carbon dynamics in primary forests. Disturbance legacies spanning centuries shaped contemporary forest co-benefits and trade-offs, with contrasting, local-scale effects. Disturbances enhanced carbon sequestration, reaching maximum rates within a comparatively narrow post-disturbance window (up to 50 years). Concurrently, disturbance diminished aboveground carbon storage, which gradually returned to peak levels over centuries. Temporal patterns in biodiversity potential were bimodal; the first maximum coincided with the short-term post-disturbance carbon sequestration peak, and the second occurred during periods of maximum carbon storage in complex old-growth forest. Despite fluctuating local-scale trade-offs, forest biodiversity and carbon storage remained stable across the broader study region, and our data support a positive relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity potential. These findings underscore the interdependencies of forest processes, and highlight the necessity of large-scale conservation programmes to effectively promote both biodiversity and long-term carbon storage, particularly given the accelerating global biodiversity and climate crises.

Is there tree senescence? The fecundity evidence.

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming".

Schall and Heinrichs question our interpretation that the climatic debt in understory plant communities is locally modulated by canopy buffering. However, our results clearly show that the discrepancy between microclimate warming rates and thermophilization rates is highest in forests where canopy cover was reduced, which suggests that the need for communities to respond to warming is highest in those forests.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming".

Bertrand et al question our interpretation about warming effects on the thermophilization in forest plant communities and propose an alternative way to analyze climatic debt. We show that microclimate warming is a better predictor than macroclimate warming for studying forest plant community responses to warming. Their additional analyses do not affect or change our interpretations and conclusions.

Quantifying natural disturbances using a large-scale dendrochronological reconstruction to guide forest management.

Estimates of historical disturbance patterns are essential to guide forest management aimed at ensuring the sustainability of ecosystem functions and biodiversity. However, quantitative estimates of various disturbance characteristics required in management applications are rare in longer-term historical studies. Thus, our objectives were to (1) quantify past disturbance severity, patch size, and stand proportion disturbed and (2) test for temporal and subregional differences in these characteristics. We developed a comprehensive dendrochronological method to evaluate an approximately two-century-long disturbance record in the remaining Central and Eastern European primary mountain spruce forests, where wind and bark beetles are the predominant disturbance agents. We used an unprecedented large-scale nested design data set of 541 plots located within 44 stands and 6 subregions. To quantify individual disturbance events, we used tree-ring proxies, which were aggregated at plot and stand levels by smoothing and detecting peaks in their distributions. The spatial aggregation of disturbance events was used to estimate patch sizes. Data exhibited continuous gradients from low- to high-severity and small- to large-size disturbance events. In addition to the importance of small disturbance events, moderate-scale (25-75% of the stand disturbed, >10 ha patch size) and moderate-severity (25-75% of canopy disturbed) events were also common. Moderate disturbances represented more than 50% of the total disturbed area and their rotation periods ranged from one to several hundred years, which is within the lifespan of local tree species. Disturbance severities differed among subregions, whereas the stand proportion disturbed varied significantly over time. This indicates partially independent variations among disturbance characteristics. Our quantitative estimates of disturbance severity, patch size, stand proportion disturbed, and associated rotation periods provide rigorous baseline data for future ecological research, decisions within biodiversity conservation, and silviculture intended to maintain native biodiversity and ecosystem functions. These results highlight a need for sufficiently large and adequately connected networks of strict reserves, more complex silvicultural treatments that emulate the natural disturbance spectrum in harvest rotation times, sizes, and intensities, and higher levels of tree and structural legacy retention.

Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming.

Climate warming is causing a shift in biological communities in favor of warm-affinity species (i.e., thermophilization). Species responses often lag behind climate warming, but the reasons for such lags remain largely unknown. Here, we analyzed multidecadal understory microclimate dynamics in European forests and show that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate. Increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change. Reciprocal effects between plants and microclimates are key to understanding the response of forest biodiversity and functioning to climate and land-use changes.

Replacements of small- by large-ranged species scale up to diversity loss in Europe's temperate forest biome.

Biodiversity time series reveal global losses and accelerated redistributions of species, but no net loss in local species richness. To better understand how these patterns are linked, we quantify how individual species trajectories scale up to diversity changes using data from 68 vegetation resurvey studies of seminatural forests in Europe. Herb-layer species with small geographic ranges are being replaced by more widely distributed species, and our results suggest that this is due less to species abundances than to species nitrogen niches. Nitrogen deposition accelerates the extinctions of small-ranged, nitrogen-efficient plants and colonization by broadly distributed, nitrogen-demanding plants (including non-natives). Despite no net change in species richness at the spatial scale of a study site, the losses of small-ranged species reduce biome-scale (gamma) diversity. These results provide one mechanism to explain the directional replacement of small-ranged species within sites and thus explain patterns of biodiversity change across spatial scales.

Large-scale disturbance legacies and the climate sensitivity of primary Picea abies forests.

Determining the drivers of shifting forest disturbance rates remains a pressing global change issue. Large-scale forest dynamics are commonly assumed to be climate driven, but appropriately scaled disturbance histories are rarely available to assess how disturbance legacies alter subsequent disturbance rates and the climate sensitivity of disturbance. We compiled multiple tree ring-based disturbance histories from primary Picea abies forest fragments distributed throughout five European landscapes spanning the Bohemian Forest and the Carpathian Mountains. The regional chronology includes 11,595 tree cores, with ring dates spanning the years 1750-2000, collected from 560 inventory plots in 37 stands distributed across a 1,000 km geographic gradient, amounting to the largest disturbance chronology yet constructed in Europe. Decadal disturbance rates varied significantly through time and declined after 1920, resulting in widespread increases in canopy tree age. Approximately 75% of current canopy area recruited prior to 1900. Long-term disturbance patterns were compared to an historical drought reconstruction, and further linked to spatial variation in stand structure and contemporary disturbance patterns derived from LANDSAT imagery. Historically, decadal Palmer drought severity index minima corresponded to higher rates of canopy removal. The severity of contemporary disturbances increased with each stand's estimated time since last major disturbance, increased with mean diameter, and declined with increasing within-stand structural variability. Reconstructed spatial patterns suggest that high small-scale structural variability has historically acted to reduce large-scale susceptibility and climate sensitivity of disturbance. Reduced disturbance rates since 1920, a potential legacy of high 19th century disturbance rates, have contributed to a recent region-wide increase in disturbance susceptibility. Increasingly common high-severity disturbances throughout primary Picea forests of Central Europe should be reinterpreted in light of both legacy effects (resulting in increased susceptibility) and climate change (resulting in increased exposure to extreme events).

Contrasting effects of environmental change on the radial growth of co-occurring beech and fir trees across Europe.

Under predicted climate change, native silver fir (Abies alba) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica) are the most likely replacement species for the Norway spruce (Picea abies) monocultures planted across large parts of continental Europe. Our current understanding of the adaptation potential of fir-beech mixed forests to climate change is limited because long-term responses of the two species to environmental changes have not yet been comprehensively quantified. We compiled and analysed tree-ring width (TRW) series from 2855 dominant, co-dominant, sub-dominant and suppressed fir and beech trees sampled in 17 managed and unmanaged mixed beech-fir forest sites across Continental Europe, including Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany, Italy, Romania and Slovakia. Dendroecological techniques that combine various detrending methods were used to investigate variation in radial growth of co-occurring fir and beech trees. Coincidental with peak SO2 emissions, the growth of silver fir declined between 1950 and 1980 at most sites, whereas beech growth increased during this period. Correspondent to a significant warming trend from 1990-2010, average beech growth declined, but silver fir growth increased. Long-term growth patterns and growth-climate sensitivity of fir and beech trees did not significantly differ between managed and unmanaged forests. Multi-decadal changes in the growth rate of all vertical tree classes were similar. In contrast to previous indications of limited drought susceptibility of beech mixed stands, this study suggests that the mixture of tree species in forest stands does not necessarily prevent growth depressions induced by long-term environmental change. Our results further imply that forest management does not necessarily alter their sensitivity to environmental changes.

Forest disturbances under climate change.

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

The historical disturbance regime of mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians and its influence on current forest structure and composition.

In order to gauge ongoing and future changes to disturbance regimes, it is necessary to establish a solid baseline of historic disturbance patterns against which to evaluate these changes. Further, understanding how forest structure and composition respond to variation in past disturbances may provide insight into future resilience to climate-driven alterations of disturbance regimes. We established 184 plots (mostly 1000 m2) in 14 primary mountain Norway spruce forests in the Western Carpathians. On each plot we surveyed live and dead trees and regeneration, and cored around 25 canopy trees. Disturbance history was reconstructed by examining individual tree growth trends. The study plots were further aggregated into five groups based on disturbance history (severity and timing) to evaluate and explain its influence on forest structure. These ecosystems are characterized by a mixed severity disturbance regime with high spatiotemporal variability in severity and frequency. However, periods of synchrony in disturbance activity were also found. Specifically, a peak of canopy disturbance was found for the mid-19th century across the region (about 60% of trees established), with the most important periods of disturbance in the 1820s and from the 1840s to the 1870s. Current stand size and age structure were strongly influenced by past disturbance activity. In contrast, past disturbances did not have a significant effect on current tree density, the amount of coarse woody debris, and regeneration. High mean densities of regeneration with height >50 cm (about 1400 individuals per ha) were observed. Extensive high severity disturbances have recently affected Central European forests, spurring a discussion about the causes and consequences. We found some evidence that forests in the Western Carpathians were predisposed to recent severe disturbance events as a result of synchronized past disturbance activity, which partly homogenized size and age structure and made recent stands more vulnerable to bark beetle outbreak. Our data suggest that these events are still part of the range of natural variability. The finding that regeneration density and volume of coarse woody debris were not influenced by past disturbance illustrates that vastly different past disturbance histories are not likely to change the future trajectories of these forests. These ecosystems currently have high ecological resilience to disturbance. In conclusion, we suggest that management should recognize disturbances as a natural part of ecosystem dynamics in the mountain forests of Central Europe, account for their stochastic occurrence in management planning, and mimic their patterns to foster biodiversity in forest landscapes.

A walk on the wild side: Disturbance dynamics and the conservation and management of European mountain forest ecosystems.

Mountain forests are among the most important ecosystems in Europe as they support numerous ecological, hydrological, climatic, social, and economic functions. They are unique relatively natural ecosystems consisting of long-lived species in an otherwise densely populated human landscape. Despite this, centuries of intensive forest management in many of these forests have eclipsed evidence of natural processes, especially the role of disturbances in long-term forest dynamics. Recent trends of land abandonment and establishment of protected forests have coincided with a growing interest in managing forests in more natural states. At the same time, the importance of past disturbances highlighted in an emerging body of literature, and recent increasing disturbances due to climate change are challenging long-held views of dynamics in these ecosystems. Here, we synthesize aspects of this Special Issue on the ecology of mountain forest ecosystems in Europe in the context of broader discussions in the field, to present a new perspective on these ecosystems and their natural disturbance regimes. Most mountain forests in Europe, for which long-term data are available, show a strong and long-term effect of not only human land use but also of natural disturbances that vary by orders of magnitude in size and frequency. Although these disturbances may kill many trees, the forests themselves have not been threatened. The relative importance of natural disturbances, land use, and climate change for ecosystem dynamics varies across space and time. Across the continent, changing climate and land use are altering forest cover, forest structure, tree demography, and natural disturbances, including fires, insect outbreaks, avalanches, and wind disturbances. Projected continued increases in forest area and biomass along with continued warming are likely to further promote forest disturbances. Episodic disturbances may foster ecosystem adaptation to the effects of ongoing and future climatic change. Increasing disturbances, along with trends of less intense land use, will promote further increases in coarse woody debris, with cascading positive effects on biodiversity, edaphic conditions, biogeochemical cycles, and increased heterogeneity across a range of spatial scales. Together, this may translate to disturbance-mediated resilience of forest landscapes and increased biodiversity, as long as climate and disturbance regimes remain within the tolerance of relevant species. Understanding ecological variability, even imperfectly, is integral to anticipating vulnerabilities and promoting ecological resilience, especially under growing uncertainty. Allowing some forests to be shaped by natural processes may be congruent with multiple goals of forest management, even in densely settled and developed countries.

Disturbance, life history traits, and dynamics in an old-growth forest landscape of southeastern Europe.

Much of our understanding of natural forest dynamics in the temperate region of Europe is based on observational studies in old-growth remnants that have emphasized small-scale gap dynamics and equilibrium stand structure and composition. Relatively little attention has been given to the role of infrequent disturbance events in forest dynamics. In this study, we analyzed dendroecological data from four stands and three windthrow patches in an old-growth landscape in the Dinaric Mountains of Bosnia and Herzegovina to examine disturbance history, tree life history traits, and compositional dynamics. Over all stands, most decades during the past 340 years experienced less than 10% canopy loss, yet each stand showed evidence of periodic intermediate-severity disturbances that removed > 40% of the canopy, some of which were synchronized over the study area landscape. Analysis of radial growth patterns indicated several life history differences among the dominant canopy trees; beech was markedly older than fir, while growth patterns of dead and dying trees suggested that fir was able to tolerate longer periods of suppressed growth in shade. Maple had the fastest radial growth and accessed the canopy primarily through rapid early growth in canopy gaps, whereas most beech and fir experienced a period of suppressed growth prior to canopy accession. Peaks in disturbance were roughly linked to increased recruitment, but mainly of shade-tolerant beech and fir; less tolerant species (i.e., maple, ash, and elm) recruited successfully on some of the windthown sites where advance regeneration of beech and fir was less abundant. The results challenge the traditional notions of stability in temperate old-growth forests of Europe and highlight the nonequilibrial nature of canopy composition due to unique histories of disturbance and tree life history differences. These findings provide valuable information for developing natural disturbance-based silvicultural systems, as well as insight into maintaining less shade-tolerant, but valuable broadleaved trees in temperate forests of Europe.