Evaluation of novel indices of walking performance taking oxygen desaturation into account during six-minute walk test in cardiovascular disease patients.

In pulmonary disease patients since oxygen desaturation during 6-min walk test (6MWT) affects walk distance (6MWD), some novel indices such as desaturation/distance ratio [DDR, oxygen desaturation area (DAO2)/6MWD] and distance-saturation product [DSP, 6MWD × minimum peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2)] are evaluated. However, there has been no study examining these indices that consider exercise-induced desaturation (EID) in patients with cardiovascular disease. In 94 cardiovascular disease patients without pulmonary complications, 6MWT and echocardiography were performed at the entry of cardiac rehabilitation. SpO2 was measured during 6MWT using a continuously monitorable pulse oximeter, and DSP and DDR were calculated using minimum SpO2 and DAO2 [sum of (100-SpO2) per second during 6MWT], respectively. EID was defined as SpO2 decrease of ≥ 4% or minimum SpO2 of < 90% during 6MWT. DSP was slightly lower and DDR was markedly higher in patients with EID than in those without. When examining correlations of DSP and DDR with their components, DSP was correlated with 6MWD much closely than minimum SpO2, while DDR was correlated as closely with DAO2 as 6MWD. Furthermore, DAO2, but not minimum SpO2, had a direct correlation with 6MWD. As for associations with cardiac function, DSP was correlated with several cardiac parameters, but DDR was not correlated with any of these parameters. Our findings suggest that oxygen desaturation during 6MWT affects walking distance in cardiovascular disease patients even without pulmonary complications and that DDR is more appropriate than DSP as an index of walking performance that takes EID into consideration, independently of cardiac function.

Glucagon-like Peptide-1 analogues and delipidation of coronary atheroma in statin-treated type 2 diabetic patients with coronary artery disease: The prespecified sub-analysis of the OPTIMAL randomized clinical trial.

Background and aims: Randomized clinical trials have demonstrated the ability of glucagon-like peptide-1 analogues (GLP-1RAs) to reduce atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease events in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). How GLP-1RAs modulate diabetic atherosclerosis remains to be determined yet. Methods: The OPTIMAL study was a prospective randomized controlled study to compare the efficacy of 48-week continuous glucose monitoring- and HbA1c-guided glycemic control on near infrared spectroscopty (NIRS)/intravascular ultrasound (IVUS)-derived plaque measures in 94 statin-treated patients with T2D (jRCT1052180152, UMIN000036721). Of these, 78 patients with evaluable serial NIRS/IVUS images were analyzed to compare plaque measures between those treated with (n = 16) and without GLP-1RAs (n = 72). Results: All patients received a statin, and on-treatment LDL-C levels were similar between the groups (66.9 ± 11.6 vs. 68.1 ± 23.2 mg/dL, p = 0.84). Patients receiving GLP-1RAs demonstrated a greater reduction of HbA1c [-1.0 (-1.4 to -0.5) vs. -0.4 (-0.6 to -0.2)%, p = 0.02] and were less likely to demonstrate a glucose level >180 mg/dL [-7.5 (-14.9 to -0.1) vs. 1.1 (-2.0 - 4.2)%, p = 0.04], accompanied by a significant decrease in remnant cholesterol levels [-3.8 (-6.3 to -1.3) vs. -0.1 (-0.8 - 1.1)mg/dL, p = 0.008]. On NIRS/IVUS imaging analysis, the change in percent atheroma volume did not differ between the groups (-0.9 ± 0.25 vs. -0.2 ± 0.2%, p = 0.23). However, GLP-1RA treated patients demonstrated a greater frequency of maxLCBI4mm regression (85.6 ± 0.1 vs. 42.0 ± 0.6%, p = 0.01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the GLP-1RA use was independently associated with maxLCBI4mm regression (odds ratio = 4.41, 95%CI = 1.19-16.30, p = 0.02). Conclusions: In statin-treated patients with T2D and CAD, GLP-1RAs produced favourable changes in lipidic plaque materials, consistent with its stabilization.

Evaluation of fractional flow reserve and atherosclerotic plaque characteristics on coronary non-contrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The relationship between high-risk coronary plaque characteristics regardless of the severity of lesion stenosis and myocardial ischemia remains unsettled. High-intensity plaques (HIPs) on non-contrast T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (T1WI) have been characterized as high-risk coronary plaques. We sought to elucidate whether the presence of coronary HIPs on T1WI influences fractional flow reserve (FFR) in the distal segment of the vessel. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 281 vessels in 231 patients with chronic coronary syndrome who underwent invasive FFR measurement and coronary T1WI using a multicenter registry. The plaque-to-myocardial signal intensity ratio (PMR) of the most stenotic lesion was evaluated; a coronary plaque with PMR ≥1.4 was defined as a HIP. RESULTS: The median PMR of coronary plaques on T1WI in vessels with FFR ≤0.80 was significantly higher than that of plaques with FFR >0.80 (1.17 [interquartile range (IQR): 0.99-1.44] vs. 0.97 [IQR: 0.85-1.09]; p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that an increase in PMR of the most stenotic segment was associated with lower FFR (beta-coefficient, -0.050; p < 0.001). The presence of coronary HIPs was an independent predictor of FFR ≤0.80 (odds ratio (OR), 6.18; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.93-19.77; p = 0.002). Even after adjusting for plaque composition characteristics based on computed tomography angiography, the presence of coronary HIPs was an independent predictor of FFR ≤0.80 (OR, 4.48; 95% CI, 1.19-16.80; p = 0.026). CONCLUSIONS: Coronary plaques with high PMR are associated with low FFR in the corresponding vessel, indicating that plaque morphology might influence myocardial ischemia severity.

Risk calculator for incident atrial fibrillation across a range of prediction horizons.

BACKGROUND: The increasing burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) emphasizes the need to identify high-risk individuals for enrolment in clinical trials of AF screening and primary prevention. We aimed to develop prediction models to identify individuals at high-risk of AF across prediction horizons from 6-months to 10-years. METHODS: We used secondary-care linked primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between January 2, 1998 and November 30, 2018; randomly divided into derivation (80%) and validation (20%) datasets. Models were derived using logistic regression from known AF risk factors for incident AF in prediction periods of 6 months, 1-year, 2-years, 5-years, and 10-years. Performance was evaluated using in the validation dataset with bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. RESULTS: Of 2,081,139 individuals in the cohort (1,664,911 in the development dataset, 416,228 in the validation dataset), the mean age was 49.9 (SD 15.4), 50.7% were women, and 86.7% were white. New cases of AF were 7,386 (0.4%) within 6 months, 15,349 (0.7%) in 1 year, 38,487 (1.8%) in 5 years, and 79,997 (3.8%) by 10 years. Valvular heart disease and heart failure were the strongest predictors, and association of hypertension with AF increased at longer prediction horizons. The optimal risk models incorporated age, sex, ethnicity, and 8 comorbidities. The models demonstrated good-to-excellent discrimination and strong calibration across prediction horizons (AUROC, 95%CI, calibration slope: 6-months, 0.803, 0.789-0.821, 0.952; 1-year, 0.807, 0.794-0.819, 0.962; 2-years, 0.815, 0.807-0.823, 0.973; 5-years, 0.807, 0.803-0.812, 1.000; 10-years 0.780, 0.777-0.784, 1.010), and superior to the CHA2DS2-VASc and C2HEST scores. The models are available as a web-based FIND-AF calculator. CONCLUSIONS: The FIND-AF models demonstrate high discrimination and calibration across short- and long-term prediction horizons in 2 million individuals. Their utility to inform trial enrolment and clinical decisions for AF screening and primary prevention requires further study.

Predicting incident heart failure from population-based nationwide electronic health records: protocol for a model development and validation study.

INTRODUCTION: Heart failure (HF) is increasingly common and associated with excess morbidity, mortality, and healthcare costs. Treatment of HF can alter the disease trajectory and reduce clinical events in HF. However, many cases of HF remain undetected until presentation with more advanced symptoms, often requiring hospitalisation. Predicting incident HF is challenging and statistical models are limited by performance and scalability in routine clinical practice. An HF prediction model implementable in nationwide electronic health records (EHRs) could enable targeted diagnostics to enable earlier identification of HF. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will investigate a range of development techniques (including logistic regression and supervised machine learning methods) on routinely collected primary care EHRs to predict risk of new-onset HF over 1, 5 and 10 years prediction horizons. The Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)-GOLD dataset will be used for derivation (training and testing) and the CPRD-AURUM dataset for external validation. Both comprise large cohorts of patients, representative of the population of England in terms of age, sex and ethnicity. Primary care records are linked at patient level to secondary care and mortality data. The performance of the prediction model will be assessed by discrimination, calibration and clinical utility. We will only use variables routinely accessible in primary care. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Permissions for CPRD-GOLD and CPRD-AURUM datasets were obtained from CPRD (ref no: 21_000324). The CPRD ethical approval committee approved the study. The results will be submitted as a research paper for publication to a peer-reviewed journal and presented at peer-reviewed conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION DETAILS: The study was registered on Clinical Trials.gov (NCT05756127). A systematic review for the project was registered on PROSPERO (registration number: CRD42022380892).

Effect of Eicosapentaenoic Acid/Docosahexaenoic Acid on Coronary High-Intensity Plaques Detected Using Noncontrast T1-weighted Imaging: The AQUAMARINE EPA/DHA Randomized Study.

AIM: Omega-3 fatty acids have emerged as a new option for controlling the residual risk for coronary artery disease (CAD) in the statin era. Eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) is associated with reduced CAD risk in the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl-Intervention trial, whereas the Statin Residual Risk with Epanova in High Cardiovascular Risk Patients with Hypertriglyceridemia trial that used the combination EPA/docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) has failed to derive any clinical benefit. These contradictory results raise important questions about whether investigating the antiatherosclerotic effect of omega-3 fatty acids could help to understand their significance for CAD-risk reduction. METHODS: The Attempts at Plaque Vulnerability Quantification with Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Noncontrast T1-weighted Technic EPA/DHA study is a single-center, triple-arm, randomized, controlled, open-label trial used to investigate the effect of EPA/DHA on high-risk coronary plaques after 12 months of treatment, detected using cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in patients with CAD receiving statin therapy. Eligible patients were randomly assigned to no-treatment, 2-g/day, and 4-g/day EPA/DHA groups. The primary endpoint was the change in the plaque-to-myocardium signal intensity ratio (PMR) of coronary high-intensity plaques detected by CMR. Coronary plaque assessment using computed tomography angiography (CTA) was also investigated. RESULTS: Overall, 84 patients (mean age: 68.2 years, male: 85%) who achieved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels of ＜100 mg/dL were enrolled. The PMR was reduced in each group over 12 months. There were no significant differences in PMR changes among the three groups in the primary analysis or analysis including total lesions. The changes in CTA parameters, including indexes for detecting high-risk features, also did not differ. CONCLUSION: The EPA/DHA therapy of 2 or 4 g/day did not significantly improve the high-risk features of coronary atherosclerotic plaques evaluated using CMR under statin therapy.

Tissue responses to everolimus-eluting stents implanted in severely calcified lesions following atherectomy.

Histopathological examination has revealed that stents on severely calcified plaques were associated with delayed vascular healing. Although atherectomy devices can increase the number of malapposed struts, tissue responses to implanted drug eluting stents in atherectomy patients remain largely unknown. This retrospective observational study included 30 patients who underwent atherectomy and everolimus-eluting stent (EES) deployment for severely calcified coronary lesions (biodegradable polymer EES (BP-EES), n = 15; durable polymer EES (DP-EES), n = 15). Optical coherence tomography was carried out at baseline and follow-up, and struts with acute stent malapposition (ASM) were categorized as struts on modified calcium (mod-Ca), non-modified calcium (non-mod-Ca), or non-calcium (non-Ca). Adequate vascular healing, defined as ASM resolution with neointimal coverage, was compared between the BP-EES and DP-EES groups. Multivariate linear regression analysis using a generalized estimated equation revealed that BP-EES use was associated with significantly better adequate vascular healing compared with DP-EES (odds ratio [OR]: 3.691, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.175-11.592, P = 0.025). adequate vascular healing was associated with the underlying plaque morphology (mod-Ca vs non-mod-Ca: OR 2.833, 95% CI 1.491-5.384, P = 0.001; non-Ca vs non-mod-Ca: OR 1.248, 95% CI 0.440-3.543, P = 0.677). This study demonstrates that drug-eluting stent selection and calcium modification are possible factors affecting vascular healing of malapposed struts in severely calcified lesions.

Inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the United Kingdom.

Cardiovascular diseases are a leading cause of death and disability globally, with inequalities in burden and care delivery evident in Europe. To address this challenge, The Lancet Regional Health-Europe convened experts from a range of countries to summarise the current state of knowledge on cardiovascular disease inequalities across Europe. This Series paper presents evidence from nationwide secondary care registries and primary care healthcare records regarding inequalities in care delivery and outcomes for myocardial infarction, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and aortic stenosis in the National Health Service (NHS) across the United Kingdom (UK) by age, sex, ethnicity and geographical location. Data suggest that women and older people less frequently receive guideline-recommended treatment than men and younger people. There are limited publications about ethnicity in the UK for the studied disease areas. Finally, there is inter-healthcare provider variation in cardiovascular care provision, especially for transcatheter aortic valve implantation, which is associated with differing outcomes for patients with the same disease. Providing equitable care is a founding principle of the UK NHS, which is well positioned to deliver innovative policy responses to reverse observed inequalities. Understanding differences in care may enable the implementation of appropriate strategies to mitigate differences in outcomes.

Prognosis, characteristics, and provision of care for patients with the unspecified heart failure electronic health record phenotype: a population-based linked cohort study of 95262 individuals.

Background: Whether the accuracy of the phenotype ascribed to patients in electronic health records (EHRs) is associated with variation in prognosis and care provision is unknown. We investigated this for heart failure (HF, characterised as HF with preserved ejection fraction [HFpEF], HF with reduced ejection fraction [HFrEF] and unspecified HF). Methods: We included individuals aged 16 years and older with a new diagnosis of HF between January 2, 1998 and February 28, 2022 from linked primary and secondary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England. We investigated the provision of guideline-recommended diagnostic investigations and pharmacological treatments. The primary outcome was a composite of HF hospitalisation or all-cause death, and secondary outcomes were time to HF hospitalisation, all-cause death and death from cardiovascular causes. We used Kaplan-Meier curves and log rank tests to compare survival across HF phenotypes and adjusted for potential confounders in Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Findings: Of a cohort of 95,262 individuals, 1271 (1.3%) were recorded as having HFpEF, 10,793 (11.3%) as HFrEF and 83,198 (87.3%) as unspecified HF. Individuals recorded as unspecified HF were older with a higher prevalence of dementia. Unspecified HF, compared to patients with a recorded HF phenotype, were less likely to receive specialist assessment, echocardiography or natriuretic peptide testing in the peri-diagnostic period, or receive angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, beta blockers or mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists up to 12 months after diagnosis (risk ratios compared to HFrEF, 0.64, 95% CI 0.63-0.64; 0.59, 0.58-0.60; 0.57, 0.55-0.59; respectively) and had significantly worse outcomes (adjusted hazard ratios compared to HFrEF, HF hospitalisation and death 1.66, 95% CI 1.59-1.74; all-cause mortality 2.00, 1.90-2.10; cardiovascular death 1.77, 1.65-1.90). Interpretation: Our findings suggested that absence of specification of HF phenotype in routine EHRs is inversely associated with clinical investigations, treatments and survival, representing an actionable target to mitigate prognostic and health resource burden. Funding: Japan Research Foundation for Healthy Aging and British Heart Foundation.

Temporal trends of cause-specific mortality after diagnosis of atrial fibrillation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Reports of outcomes after atrial fibrillation (AF) diagnosis are conflicting. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality and hospitalization rates following AF diagnosis over time, by cause and by patient features. METHODS: Individuals aged ≥16 years with a first diagnosis of AF were identified from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset from 1 January 2001, to 31 December 2017. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality and hospitalization at 1 year following diagnosis. Poisson regression was used to calculate rate ratios (RRs) for mortality and incidence RRs (IRRs) for hospitalization and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing 2001/02 and 2016/17, adjusted for age, sex, region, socio-economic status, and 18 major comorbidities. RESULTS: Of 72 412 participants, mean (standard deviation) age was 75.6 (12.4) years, and 44 762 (61.8%) had ≥3 comorbidities. All-cause mortality declined (RR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 0.72; 95% CI 0.65-0.80), with large declines for cardiovascular (RR 0.46; 95% CI 0.37-0.58) and cerebrovascular mortality (RR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29-0.60) but not for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes of death (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.80-1.04). In 2016/17, deaths caused from dementia (67, 8.0%), outstripped deaths from acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and acute stroke combined (56, 6.7%, P < .001). Overall hospitalization rates increased (IRR 2016/17 vs. 2001/02 1.17; 95% CI, 1.13-1.22), especially for non-cardio/cerebrovascular causes (IRR 1.42; 95% CI 1.39-1.45). Older, more deprived, and hospital-diagnosed AF patients experienced higher event rates. CONCLUSIONS: After AF diagnosis, cardio/cerebrovascular mortality and hospitalization has declined, whilst hospitalization for non-cardio/cerebrovascular disease has increased.

Incident cardiovascular, renal, metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified for risk-guided atrial fibrillation screening: a nationwide cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: Risk-guided atrial fibrillation (AF) screening may be an opportunity to prevent adverse events in addition to stroke. We compared events rates for new diagnoses of cardio-renal-metabolic diseases and death in individuals identified at higher versus lower-predicted AF risk. METHODS: From the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset, 2 January 1998-30 November 2018, we identified individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF. The risk of AF was estimated using the FIND-AF (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation) risk score. We calculated cumulative incidence rates and fit Fine and Gray's models at 1, 5 and 10 years for nine diseases and death adjusting for competing risks. RESULTS: Of 416 228 individuals in the cohort, 82 942 were identified as higher risk for AF. Higher-predicted risk, compared with lower-predicted risk, was associated with incident chronic kidney disease (cumulative incidence per 1000 persons at 10 years 245.2; HR 6.85, 95% CI 6.70 to 7.00; median time to event 5.44 years), heart failure (124.7; 12.54, 12.08 to 13.01; 4.06), diabetes mellitus (123.3; 2.05, 2.00 to 2.10; 3.45), stroke/transient ischaemic attack (118.9; 8.07, 7.80 to 8.34; 4.27), myocardial infarction (69.6; 5.02, 4.82 to 5.22; 4.32), peripheral vascular disease (44.6; 6.62, 6.28 to 6.98; 4.28), valvular heart disease (37.8; 6.49, 6.14 to 6.85; 4.54), aortic stenosis (18.7; 9.98, 9.16 to 10.87; 4.41) and death from any cause (273.9; 10.45, 10.23 to 10.68; 4.75). The higher-risk group constituted 74% of deaths from cardiovascular or cerebrovascular causes (8582 of 11 676). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals identified for risk-guided AF screening are at risk of new diseases across the cardio-renal-metabolic spectrum and death, and may benefit from interventions beyond ECG monitoring.

Prediction models for heart failure in the community: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIMS: Multivariable prediction models can be used to estimate risk of incident heart failure (HF) in the general population. A systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to determine the performance of models. METHODS AND RESULTS: From inception to 3 November 2022 MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched for studies of multivariable models derived, validated and/or augmented for HF prediction in community-based cohorts. Discrimination measures for models with c-statistic data from ≥3 cohorts were pooled by Bayesian meta-analysis, with heterogeneity assessed through a 95% prediction interval (PI). Risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST. We included 36 studies with 59 prediction models. In meta-analysis, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) risk score (summary c-statistic 0.802, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.707-0.883), GRaph-based Attention Model (GRAM; 0.791, 95% CI 0.677-0.885), Pooled Cohort equations to Prevent Heart Failure (PCP-HF) white men model (0.820, 95% CI 0.792-0.843), PCP-HF white women model (0.852, 95% CI 0.804-0.895), and REverse Time AttentIoN model (RETAIN; 0.839, 95% CI 0.748-0.916) had a statistically significant 95% PI and excellent discrimination performance. The ARIC risk score and PCP-HF models had significant summary discrimination among cohorts with a uniform prediction window. 77% of model results were at high risk of bias, certainty of evidence was low, and no model had a clinical impact study. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction models for estimating risk of incident HF in the community demonstrate excellent discrimination performance. Their usefulness remains uncertain due to high risk of bias, low certainty of evidence, and absence of clinical effectiveness research.

Comparison of care and outcomes for myocardial infarction by heart failure status between United Kingdom and Japan.

AIMS: Prognosis for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is worse when heart failure is present on admission. Understanding clinical practice in different health systems can identify areas for quality improvement initiatives to improve outcomes. In the absence of international comparison studies, we aimed to compare treatments and in-hospital outcomes of patients admitted with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) by heart failure status in two healthcare-wide cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used two nationwide databases to capture admissions with STEMI in the United Kingdom (Myocardial ischemia National Audit Project, MINAP) and Japan (Japanese Registry of All Cardiac and Vascular Diseases-Diagnostic Procedure Combination, JROAD-DPC) between 2012 and 2017. Participants were stratified using the HF Killip classification into three groups; Killip 1: no congestive heart failure, Killip 2-3: congestive heart failure, Killip 4: cardiogenic shock. We calculated crude rate and case mix standardized risk ratios (CSRR) for use of treatments and in-hospital death. Patients were younger in the United Kingdom (65.4 [13.6] vs. 69.1 [13.0] years) and more likely to have co-morbidities in the United Kingdom except for diabetes and hypertension. Japan had a higher percentage of heart failure and cardiogenic shock patients among STEMI during admission than that in the United Kingdom. Primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) rates were lower in the United Kingdom compared with Japan, especially for patients presenting with Killip 2-3 class heart failure (pPCI use in patients with Killip 1, 2-3, 4: Japan, 86.2%, 81.7%, 78.7%; United Kingdom, 79.6%, 58.2% and 79.9%). In contrast, beta-blocker use was consistently lower in Japan than in the United Kingdom (61.4% vs. 90.2%) across Killip classifications and length of hospital stay longer (17.0 [9.7] vs. 5.0 [7.4] days). The crude rate of in-hospital mortality increased with increasing Killip class group. Both the crude rate and CSRR was higher in the United Kingdom compared with Japan for Killip 2-3 (15.8% vs. 6.4%, CSRR 1.80 95% CI 1.73-1.87, P < 0.001), and similar for Killip 4 (36.9% vs. 36.3%, CSRR 1.11 95% CI 1.08-1.13, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Important differences in the care and outcomes for STEMI with heart failure exist between the United Kingdom and Japan. Specifically, in the United Kingdom, there was a lower rate of pPCI, and in Japan, fewer patients were prescribed beta blockers and hospital length of stay was longer. This international comparison can inform targeted quality improvement programmes to narrow the outcome gap between health systems.

Predictors of Improvement in Exercise Capacity After Cardiac Rehabilitation Differ Between Octogenarian and Young-Old Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Whether the magnitude and predictors of improvement in exercise capacity after cardiac rehabilitation (CR) are the same between young-old (YO) and octogenarian (OCT) patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is unknown.Methods and Results: We studied 284 YO (age range 65-69 years; mean [±SD] 67±1 years) and 65 OCT (age range ≥80 years; mean [±SD] 83±2 years) patients who participated in a post-AMI CR program. After 3 months of CR, peak oxygen uptake (PV̇O2) measured during cardiopulmonary exercise testing improved significantly in both age groups (P<0.01), although the percentage increase in PV̇O2(%∆PV̇O2) was significantly smaller in the OCT than YO group (5.4±13.7% vs. 10.0±12.8%; P<0.01). Multiple regression analysis demonstrated that independent predictors of %∆PV̇O2were the number of outpatient CR (OPCR) sessions attended (P=0.015), left ventricular ejection fraction (P=0.028), and baseline PV̇O2(P=0.0007) in the YO group; and the number of sessions attended (P=0.018), atrial fibrillation (P=0.042), and the presence of nutritional risk (Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index ≤98; P=0.036) in the OCT group. CONCLUSIONS: The predictors of improvement in exercise capacity after CR differed between the YO and OCT patients with AMI. To obtain a greater improvement in PV̇O2in CR, frequent OPCR session attendance may be necessary in both groups; in addition, particularly in OCT patients, better nutritional status may be important.

Prediction of short-term atrial fibrillation risk using primary care electronic health records.

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation (AF) screening by age achieves a low yield and misses younger individuals. We aimed to develop an algorithm in nationwide routinely collected primary care data to predict the risk of incident AF within 6 months (Future Innovations in Novel Detection of Atrial Fibrillation (FIND-AF)). METHODS: We used primary care electronic health record data from individuals aged ≥30 years without known AF in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink-GOLD dataset between 2 January 1998 and 30 November 2018, randomly divided into training (80%) and testing (20%) datasets. We trained a random forest classifier using age, sex, ethnicity and comorbidities. Prediction performance was evaluated in the testing dataset with internal bootstrap validation with 200 samples, and compared against the CHA2DS2-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75 (2 points), Stroke/transient ischaemic attack/thromboembolism (2 points), Vascular disease, Age 65-74, Sex category) and C2HEST (Coronary artery disease/Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (1 point each), Hypertension, Elderly (age ≥75, 2 points), Systolic heart failure, Thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism)) scores. Cox proportional hazard models with competing risk of death were fit for incident longer-term AF between higher and lower FIND-AF-predicted risk. RESULTS: Of 2 081 139 individuals in the cohort, 7386 developed AF within 6 months. FIND-AF could be applied to all records. In the testing dataset (n=416 228), discrimination performance was strongest for FIND-AF (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.824, 95% CI 0.814 to 0.834) compared with CHA2DS2-VASc (0.784, 0.773 to 0.794) and C2HEST (0.757, 0.744 to 0.770), and robust by sex and ethnic group. The higher predicted risk cohort, compared with lower predicted risk, had a 20-fold higher 6-month incidence rate for AF and higher long-term hazard for AF (HR 8.75, 95% CI 8.44 to 9.06). CONCLUSIONS: FIND-AF, a machine learning algorithm applicable at scale in routinely collected primary care data, identifies people at higher risk of short-term AF.

Risks and benefits of oral anticoagulants for stroke prophylaxis in atrial fibrillation according to body mass index: Nationwide cohort study of primary care records in England.

Background: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) are effective and safe alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis for atrial fibrillation (AF). Whether this extends to patients at the extremes of body mass index (BMI) is unclear. Methods: Using linked primary and secondary data, Jan 1, 2010 to Nov 30, 2018, we included CHA2DS2-VASC score ≥3 in women and ≥2 in men with AF treated with oral anticoagulants (OACs). Outcomes were ischaemic stroke, major bleeding and all-cause mortality by World Health Organisation BMI classification. Patients who received warfarin were propensity score matched (1:1 ratio) with those who received DOACs and the association of time-varying OAC exposure on outcomes quantified using Cox proportional hazards models. Findings: We included 29,135 (22,818 warfarin, 6317 DOAC); 585 (2.0%) underweight, 8427 (28.9%) normal weight, 10,705 (36.7%) overweight, 5910 (20.3%) class I obesity and 3508 (12.0%) class II/III obesity. Patients treated with DOACs were older and more comorbid. After 3.7 (SD 2.5) years follow up, there was no difference in risk of ischaemic stroke and major bleeding by BMI category between DOACs and warfarin. Normal weight, overweight and obese class I patients had higher risk of all-cause mortality when treated with DOACs compared with warfarin (HR: 1.45 [95% CI 1.24-1.69], p < 0.001; 1.41 [95% CI 1.19-1.66], p < 0.001; and 1.90 [95% CI 1.50-2.39], p < 0.001), an effect not observed after DOACs became the most common OAC prescription. Amongst underweight patients OAC exposure was associated with greater harm from bleeding than benefit from stroke prevention (benefit to harm ratio, 0.35 [95% CI 0.26-0.44]). Interpretation: In patients with AF in each BMI classification we found no difference in ischaemic stroke and bleeding risk for DOACs compared with warfarin. Underweight patients experienced divergent risk-benefit patterns from oral anticoagulation compared with other BMI categories. Funding: None.

Temporal trends and patterns in atrial fibrillation incidence: A population-based study of 3·4 million individuals.

Background: Population-based studies of atrial fibrillation (AF) incidence are needed to inform health-service planning, but evidence is conflicting. We assessed trends of AF incidence in a large general population cohort from England. Methods: We used linked primary and secondary electronic health records of 3.4 million individuals. Eligible patients aged 16 years and older contributed data between Jan 2 1998 and Dec 31 2017. For patients with incident AF, we extracted baseline characteristics, comorbidities, socioeconomic status and geographic region. We calculated standardised rates by applying direct age and sex standardisation to the 2013 European Standard Population. We applied year-specific, age-specific and sex-specific incidence to UK census mid-year population estimates for yearly total incident AF. Findings: Comparing 2017 to 1998 standardised AF incidence increased by 30% (322 vs. 247 per 100 000 person-years; adjusted incidence ratio [IRR] 1·30, 95% CI 1·27-1·33). Absolute number of incident AF increased by 72% (202 333 vs. 117 880), due to an increasing number of older persons. Comorbidity burden at diagnosis of AF increased (3·74 [SD 2·29] vs 2·58 [1·83]; adjusted difference 1·26, 95% CI 1·14-1·39). The age of AF diagnosis declined in the most deprived individuals compared to the most affluent (adjusted difference 0·74 years, 0·62-0·88). Across the study period, age-standardised incidence was higher in men than women (IRR 1·49; 95% CI 1·46-1·52), and men were younger at diagnosis (adjusted difference 5·53 years; 95% CI 5·36 to 5·69). Socioeconomically deprived individuals had more comorbidities and a higher incidence of AF than the most affluent individuals (IRR 1·20; 95% CI 1·15-1·24). Interpretation: In England AF incidence has increased, and the socioeconomic gradient in age at diagnosis and comorbidity burden widened. This changing burden requires policy-based interventions to achieve health equity. Funding: British Heart Foundation and National Institute for Health Research.

Association of adherence to a 3 month cardiac rehabilitation with long-term clinical outcomes in heart failure patients.

AIMS: Although comprehensive cardiac rehabilitation (CCR) is recommended for patients with heart failure (HF), participants often show low adherence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of CCR completion and response with long-term clinical outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS: We screened 824 HF patients who participated in a 3 month CCR programme and underwent baseline assessment, including cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX). After excluding 52 participants who experienced all-cause death or HF hospitalization within 180 days, long-term outcomes were compared between those who attended 3 month follow-up assessment including CPX (completers) and those who did not (non-completers). We also compared the prognostic value of the changes in peak oxygen uptake (VO2 ) vs. quadriceps muscle strength (QMS) during the 3 month CCR programme. Among the 772 study patients, there were no significant differences in baseline characteristics, including left ventricular ejection fraction, B-type natriuretic peptide levels, and peak VO2 , between the completers (n = 561) and non-completers (n = 211), except for a higher age (63.2 ± 14.2 vs. 59.4 ± 16.2 years; P = 0.0015) and proportion of females (27% vs. 17%; P = 0.0030) among the completers. During a median follow-up of 55.4 months, the completers had lower rates of the composite of all-cause death or HF hospitalization (34.4% vs. 44.6%; P = 0.0015) and all-cause death (16.9% vs. 24.6%; P = 0.0037) than the non-completers. After adjustment for prognostic baseline characteristics, including age and sex, CCR completion was associated with 34% and 44% reductions in the composite outcome and all-cause death, respectively. Among the completers, peak VO2 and QMS increased significantly (8.9 ± 15.8% and 10.5 ± 17.9%, respectively) over 3 months. Patients who had an increase in peak VO2  ≥ 6.3% (median value) during the CCR programme had significantly lower rates of the composite outcome (27.0% vs. 33.8%; P = 0.048) and all-cause mortality (10.0% vs. 17.4%; P = 0.0069) than those who did not. No statistically significant difference was observed in the composite outcome (30.5% vs. 30.4%; P = 0.76) or all-cause mortality (13.0% vs. 14.4%; P = 0.39) between those with and without an increase in QMS ≥8.3% (median value). CONCLUSIONS: In HF patients who participated in a 3 month CCR programme, its completion was associated with lower risks of subsequent HF hospitalization and death. Within the group of patients who completed the programme, the improvement in exercise capacity, but not in skeletal muscle strength, over the 3-month period was associated with better outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of the post-CCR follow-up assessment, including CPX, to identify a patient's adherence and response to the CCR programme.

Left coronary ostial stenosis developing 15 months after transcatheter aortic valve replacement with balloon-expandable valve.

We present the case of an 82-year-old man whose left coronary ostium became obstructed 15 months after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) with a balloon-expandable valve. The patient underwent TAVR for symptomatic severe aortic stenosis with no complications. Fifteen months after the initial TAVR, the patient complained of chest pain while exercising, and the exercise stress myocardial perfusion scintigraphy demonstrated the development of regional myocardial ischemia in the region of the left coronary artery. Coronary angiography implied severe stenosis in the ostium of the left coronary artery. Computed tomography angiography and intravascular ultrasonography indicated a soft tissue component along with stent struts, which was considered to cause delayed coronary obstruction. Our report emphasizes the importance of having a low threshold for clinically suspecting delayed coronary obstruction in patients who have undergone TAVR, even after several years of the procedure. .